疯狂的Jerrick

Today’s ETF fund flow in and out: outlook for the future, and signals related to the storage sector awareness:
1. Bitcoin yesterday showed a positive correlation with the U.S. stock market, but the major ETF institutions barely took any action—only a small institution saw $5.1M in inflows. For the crypto space, it doesn’t stir up much. Over the past four days, it has still been showing net outflows from major institutions and large capital. Combined with the unstable bearish sentiment in external markets, individuals remain relatively conservative, looking for a downward drift in the consolidation.
2. Compared with BTC, ETH is still somewhat stronger. However, last night it couldn’t withstand the broader market’s downward trend either, and saw a wave of sell-off. Still, it has already strongly reclaimed the 4-hour ascending trendline. ETF funds have barely moved. If you’re looking to play a rebound, ETH is the first choice; for a short, choose BTC.
3. The Sol (SOL) ETF institutions yesterday almost fully “spit back” all the net inflow funds from the past half month (net outflow of $18.1M). It seems the outlook for the future isn’t very optimistic—mostly expect shorting at high levels.
4. Over the past half month, Hype’s ETF institutions have been one-sidedly flowing out—out, still out—with no signs of any inflow for the better. The candlestick chart pattern is extremely uniform: a choppy-to-downward consolidation. For rebounds, expect to short into strength.
5. Recently, the listing of ChangXin Tech (长鑫科技) in China has indeed provided enough “emotional value” to the entire storage sector. On the one hand, the listing expectation has siphoned buying liquidity from the whole market. On the other hand, ChangXin Tech’s listing has brought major adjustments and re-evaluation to storage valuation models across the A-share market and around the world. The existing market shares of Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk will also be compressed indirectly and earlier. This demonstrates how China’s tech rise has become increasingly crucial and weighty in the global economic order. That’s a very good thing. But the bad thing is that Korean stocks triggered circuit breakers multiple times, and U.S. storage stocks have been dumping like crazy. Also, those big idiots who made money in the earlier phase are still holding onto storage stocks tightly without letting go, and are still urging others to “buy the dip.” The money they earned was really by luck; they will really lose it by real ability. Personally, I think this storage cycle for the next two to three months will be hard to turn around again. At least, it needs some time of consolidation and washing out.
$SKHYNIX $BTC $SNDK #三星SK海力士杠杆ETF加剧韩国市场波动

It feels like today, whether it’s X or the square or even the planets, everything is especially lively—whether it’s people arguing or debating. The “buy at dig” versus “sell at Halfway Hill” talk is particularly exciting.

Why is it that in a more fearful market, more people come out shouting?

Either they shout about how awesome their bearish stance is, or they shout about how their long-term bullish view means they’re holding semiconductors to keep their conviction unchanged. Or they’re just annoyed by some little troublemaker and then act like an absolute idiot while trying to flaunt their “real strength.”

In short, today is very lively.

After all the commotion, things will eventually return to calm.

I hope calm comes sooner.

Because the bear market hasn’t reached the end yet.

Keep it up, guys on the way to making money and the guys who are already making money.
$DOGE
#长鑫科技IPO定价8.66元估值5791亿元

Today's morning comments should be reflected upon right when the A-share market closed. Since Changxin was able to break the A-share market value record at the close, and is able to hold up so firmly, then it should make other storage projects feel uneasy.

As for tonight's Hynix and SanDisk, they really shouldn't keep climbing. And if they can't keep going up, then they should keep heading toward the abyss... is that the logic? $SKHY $SNDK

I had already heard that Huang Xiaoming invested in Changxin Technology, but I didn’t expect it to be this much?
Everyone can figure out how much money they could potentially make with this ratio. And you can’t even imagine the upside potential in the future. #长鑫存储科创板IPO募资579亿元

I think a big part of why the previous downturn cycle of South Korea’s SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung was driven by expectations that ChangXin (CXMT) would go public:
ChangXin goes public → raises several hundred billion → expands capacity
China’s domestic substitution accelerates
DRAM supply increases
Future prices fall
Korean manufacturers’ profitability declines
Now, ChangXin has already successfully listed at this time, and its market cap has surpassed the 30 trillion mark. Personally, I feel this trend is very likely to follow the same path as SpaceX’s: first it goes up again to a certain height, to shake out the shorts—or to attract another wave of retail investors chasing the price—then it will drop sharply afterwards. It’s impossible for it not to fall.
As for SK Hynix, Micron, and Sandisk,
since the China-side expectation of ChangXin’s listing has already materialized, their potential downside expectations are not as high, so a rebound is pretty much inevitable.
Also, from a technical perspective, the downward trend in memory stocks from various companies has shown clear signs of weakening. So doing a rebound trade at this time is quite reasonable.
The above is only my personal opinion, recorded as part of my own investment logic, and does not constitute any investment advice.#长鑫存储上市首日涨472%
$SKHY $MU $SNDK

This is crazy.
Haha.
Employees don't even know they've been fired.
It should be that X finds out first, and then lets the employees know.

This is what makes a bear market so terrifying.
Life is like a box of choclate.
You never know where the next explosion event will come from—or what it will look like.

The first thing I do every morning after getting up is to check the ETF capital flows from the day before across major websites.

Even though there isn’t much updated important information over the weekend, I still go through it again to see if I might have missed anything.

Last night, Bitcoin and some mainstream coins rebounded nicely, but judging from the strength of the rebound from the bottom, it’s clearly much weaker than before.

That’s also one of the main reasons I keep holding on to my short position.

There has been some profit retracement on the short, but once the direction I believe in has formed, not changing it lightly is also a way to train one’s resolve.

Hold on. Even though Big Target Guy has gone long again.

$BTC

The institution’s funding is always the most sensitive in judging market conditions, so my trades now only focus on the direction of the money flow:
1. ETF 1.$BTC has been in a net outflow state for two consecutive days. Yesterday it outflowed another $27.9M. Although that’s not as much as the day before, the net outflow over two straight days still gives bears more confidence.
2. ETF 2.$ETH , after five consecutive days of net inflows, saw a small net outflow yesterday. It doesn’t matter how much it was that was withdrawn—the key is this shift. The upward momentum in the future is being weakened continuously, just like BTC.
3. After the institution sold 1.3M of SOL on 7/22, the following two days were a state of no selling and no buying. This shows the institution’s hesitation and reluctance.
4. MicroStrategy has also stopped operating on BTC in the past two weeks—no selling and no buying. That means the biggest bid for BTC hasn’t really moved over the last two weeks, so the upside potential for being bullish doesn’t seem that great.
5. Hype’s medium-term upside potential is no longer there. Aside from the fact that, as its founder said one thing while doing another, the ETF operations by institutions (yesterday saw another large net outflow of 6.9M, the biggest net outflow in nearly eight days) clearly also indicate they don’t think it should push higher. Those who are holding with plans to take profits at around the 100 level may have to wait a bit longer.
6. #美联储9月加息概率升至约82% — this makes the US dollar strong, and as a result Bitcoin has to weaken.

All the positions I’m holding right now are empty orders, and I’m also firmly bearish.
1. Still sticking to my view from yesterday: Bitcoin was influenced to some extent by the BitMEX trading firm and by the US stock market. Against the backdrop of ETF funds recording seven consecutive days of net inflows, it still achieved a very large single-day net outflow ($-225.1M). This has already reached the upside reversal threshold that I subjectively believe in.
2. If today’s ETF funds once again deliver net outflows, then the bearish sentiment will definitely become even more decisive, and my short positions can be held for moves below 60,000.
3. Hype was still relatively strong compared to BTC last night, but it couldn’t withstand BTC’s drop last night. Continuing with Hype, it kept weakening. Since it has already made a recent new low, and the ETF funds have recently been all net outflows with no clear signs of a stop-the-fall and stabilization, I can’t find any reason to go long for now (the previous ETF expectations, buybacks, and burn narratives have been talked up for far too long; institutions are taking profits, and retail investors have become immune).
4. ETH is the only one that feels a bit unusual to me: last night ETH fell, but its ETF fund flow was net inflow. However, one point worth borrowing is that compared with the net inflows of the prior four days, the visibly larger net inflow volume reached the smallest day in nearly five days ($26.3M). That also suggests the pace of inflows is slowing down—so you can only say the upward momentum is decelerating.
5. Although the Iran–Israel war (or Iran–Iraq) is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the crypto market’s direct impacts, indirect impacts still exist:
Iran–Iraq war -> crude oil up -> transportation costs up -> corporate costs up -> CPI up -> inflation picks up again -> Fed delays rate cuts -> dollar interest rates stay high -> BTC down.
6. Going back to the BitMEX matter again: even though it’s not as sensational as FTX, judging from Bitcoin’s net outflows, there are still quite a few institutions choosing to take profit. Even if this is relatively small, just like I said yesterday, you never know how many pits need to be filled behind a shutdown, or how many linked liabilities are blowing up. $BTC $ETH $HYPE #WTI原油涨6.17%布伦特涨7.04%

Crude oil has already surged like a rocket.

The next step is basically the logic of going long on pullbacks.
Actually, when crude oil rises, it basically means the escalation between the US and Iran is a done deal.
Then inflation will get even worse, weighing down expectations for rate cuts.
After that, the US stock market is really going to fall, and the crypto market will fall along with it.
Add a few more negative catalysts from inside the crypto space, and there’s no way to go long on the four-hour trend line.
If you go long, you’ll get buried.
Going forward, the market will see net outflows.
Anyway, I’ve already zipped up and ran.
#BitMEX将于9月23日关闭交易所 $CL $BTC

BitMEX going under isn’t scary. What’s scary is the chain-reaction liquidation events it triggers.
BitMEX going under will inevitably cause some panic in the market. After all, it’s a bear market now—any little wave can be hit hard.
So no matter how blindly bullish you were before, you should now set a stop-loss line that you can accept.
When the U.S. stock market opens, the ETF funds that have been flowing in for the past few days will definitely choose to take profit selectively.
So next, the most important thing to watch is how BTC reacts when the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
If BTC falls and breaks below the four-hour uptrend line, then in the days ahead any bounce back is an opportunity to short.$BTC

Be careful about your long!
Bitmex is shutting down

The live exposure count has already reached over 1 million. Today is another milestone day.
Keep it up tomorrow.
Improve a little every day.
Then you can become the most handsome guy in this plaza—number one.

Jasonleo needs to take some time off again.

Today I want to summarize a lesson.
Yesterday $ZHIPU saw dual positives land, and the stock price surged to over 35% at one point. This morning, I immediately shorted Zhipu. In logic terms, it actually didn’t have too many issues—after all, based on the continuous negative feedback pattern following the big bullish move when the Micron earnings report came out, most of the time Zhipu’s early trading today would end up taking profits.
But in truth, shorting MINIMAX would have been the better choice, since Zhipu is the real positive catalyst, while MINIMAX is just following along.
If Zhipu’s profit-taking sell orders can be absorbed by the market, then Zhipu could likely turn positive feedback sooner, whereas MINIMAX probably wouldn’t be able to climb back to the original high point.
It’s just a pity.
But let’s see. $MINIMAX

Today I took a look at the ETF data and it feels fairly stable.
BTC continues to attract $1.49 billion in inflows, and ETH also saw $251 million flowing in.
What the market fears most right now isn’t prices going up, but that there won’t be anyone left to take the other side. As long as institutional money keeps flowing in, I don’t think there’s any need to scare yourself over one or two days of volatility.
Still, I’ll say the same thing: **Don’t just stare at the candlestick chart—look where the money is actually going.** In many cases, capital is more honest than any analysis.

For a Binance live-streaming beginner, an account with almost zero followers that has been streaming for just a few days and already has this kind of data is actually pretty satisfying. Lately, it seems like I’ve found a few little tricks for driving traffic.
Keep it up!