IamKo
5.4k Posts
IamKo
• TRUE MARKET LOGIC •
High-Frequency Trader
4.4 Years
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✴️#BTC #прогноз #крипто
A new consensus is starting to take shape in the crypto market:
In a bid not to let the market collapse and to rein in the sharp rise in yields ahead of the November midterm elections, the US Treasury will, out of sheer necessity, increase purchases of US government bonds.
This new liquidity will push BTC toward historically record-high levels.
#interventions #bonds #liquidity #usa #elections
A new consensus is starting to take shape in the crypto market:
In a bid not to let the market collapse and to rein in the sharp rise in yields ahead of the November midterm elections, the US Treasury will, out of sheer necessity, increase purchases of US government bonds.
This new liquidity will push BTC toward historically record-high levels.
#interventions #bonds #liquidity #usa #elections
$BTC this wild surge was triggered only by verbal interventions from the Trump team.
Even if we theoretically assume that the bitcoin rise was triggered by capital outflows from bonds into bitcoin, there were clear timelines planned: from September 9 to November 4.
That is, the U.S. Treasury had not taken any actions yet!
and it is not yet known whether it will.
Even if we theoretically assume that the bitcoin rise was triggered by capital outflows from bonds into bitcoin, there were clear timelines planned: from September 9 to November 4.
That is, the U.S. Treasury had not taken any actions yet!
and it is not yet known whether it will.
$BTC Bitcoin is already at $77k, and this is the record and fastest growth for the entire bear market. Here are a few things to consider:
1. The bull run hasn’t started yet, but it will if they break the high at $83k;
2. So far, the rally looks like manipulation, but the candle really is too strong.
In the dry takeaway, this is the last strong zone; all the others are unlikely to turn out to be reversal points.
In other words, either ± now, or there won’t be any more downward movement ==> the bottom was set about 2 months earlier than the minimum timing, and the bear market has already ended, and the bottom was set on July 1.
This will be a shock not only for me, because in 5 cycles, this has never happened even once, but we’ll work with what we have 🤷♂️🤷♂️
1. The bull run hasn’t started yet, but it will if they break the high at $83k;
2. So far, the rally looks like manipulation, but the candle really is too strong.
In the dry takeaway, this is the last strong zone; all the others are unlikely to turn out to be reversal points.
In other words, either ± now, or there won’t be any more downward movement ==> the bottom was set about 2 months earlier than the minimum timing, and the bear market has already ended, and the bottom was set on July 1.
This will be a shock not only for me, because in 5 cycles, this has never happened even once, but we’ll work with what we have 🤷♂️🤷♂️
🗄🇺🇸Nasdaq 100 in real terms
➖The chart clearly shows that the bubble in the AI sector may already be formed
➖The current rally looks absolutely out of this world. It nearly managed to drag the S&P 500 to the final target of 8000–8200 points.
➖Possibly, a reversal is forming right now
➖Buying Big Tech as an investment is extremely risky
➖The chart clearly shows that the bubble in the AI sector may already be formed
➖The current rally looks absolutely out of this world. It nearly managed to drag the S&P 500 to the final target of 8000–8200 points.
➖Possibly, a reversal is forming right now
➖Buying Big Tech as an investment is extremely risky
🗄🇺🇸S&P 500 in real terms:
➖All market crashes follow the technical logic of the chart fairly closely. For the most part, they begin from the dotted line. The only exception is the dot-com bubble in 2000–2002.
➖In 2024, a new crisis was supposed to happen. But the situation was changed with the boost to the AI sector. The market entered a bubble mode like in 2000–2002.
➖In the technical logic, the new crisis should begin from the solid green line. Taking into account the growth in the money supply, this level shifted upward from 7800–8000 points to 8000–8200. That’s another 6–8% upside. Prices are already very close.
➖Probably, the current rally is the last run to the green line. After that, the probability of a crisis will rise sharply.
➖All market crashes follow the technical logic of the chart fairly closely. For the most part, they begin from the dotted line. The only exception is the dot-com bubble in 2000–2002.
➖In 2024, a new crisis was supposed to happen. But the situation was changed with the boost to the AI sector. The market entered a bubble mode like in 2000–2002.
➖In the technical logic, the new crisis should begin from the solid green line. Taking into account the growth in the money supply, this level shifted upward from 7800–8000 points to 8000–8200. That’s another 6–8% upside. Prices are already very close.
➖Probably, the current rally is the last run to the green line. After that, the probability of a crisis will rise sharply.
🖼Picture in 🇺🇸S&P 500 - D1 chart:
➖An upward price channel has been in effect since April 7, 2025. Prices are near its upper part. They have approached the trend mean. The room for growth is slightly less than the room for decline.
➖An upward price pattern is in effect with a base target of 7370-7470. It has been achieved. Prices rose above it without a retest. And they reached the extreme target of 7730-7830. They are currently trading below the lower boundary.
➖If prices fall to 7550, the rising model will be broken
➖If prices consolidate above 7830, growth toward the base target of the expanded upward model 8200-8300 will become available
➖A daily statistical overbought indicator is in the neutral zone.
📢Personal view: buying on consolidation above 7830 looks extremely risky. For safer options, a deeper pullback is needed. I am not considering sells yet.
➖An upward price channel has been in effect since April 7, 2025. Prices are near its upper part. They have approached the trend mean. The room for growth is slightly less than the room for decline.
➖An upward price pattern is in effect with a base target of 7370-7470. It has been achieved. Prices rose above it without a retest. And they reached the extreme target of 7730-7830. They are currently trading below the lower boundary.
➖If prices fall to 7550, the rising model will be broken
➖If prices consolidate above 7830, growth toward the base target of the expanded upward model 8200-8300 will become available
➖A daily statistical overbought indicator is in the neutral zone.
📢Personal view: buying on consolidation above 7830 looks extremely risky. For safer options, a deeper pullback is needed. I am not considering sells yet.
🤑 Again, the market still brought profit to those who trade in both directions, not to those who constantly work in only one direction.
And now technical analysis should enter the fight. I think it is technically possible to pull back toward 60k to remove the overbought condition.
But if there is an uptrend, then I would like to stay within the triangle. I just think that the inflow of capital into spot ETFs happened due to manipulation and a lack of understanding of economic processes.
Let’s see whether Trump will push the Clarity Act in September! If I were in the Democrats’ place, I would have smashed my head against the wall trying to make it happen, but I would have refused to pass this law in order to win the Senate.
But if there is an uptrend, then I would like to stay within the triangle. I just think that the inflow of capital into spot ETFs happened due to manipulation and a lack of understanding of economic processes.
Let’s see whether Trump will push the Clarity Act in September! If I were in the Democrats’ place, I would have smashed my head against the wall trying to make it happen, but I would have refused to pass this law in order to win the Senate.
IamKo
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What else stands in the way of the bullish trend:
1. In September, investors expect the issuance of a large volume of corporate bonds and borrowing in the AI sector. This means a capital outflow from risky assets.
2. A shortage of stablecoins. The total supply of stablecoins has declined due to the implementation of the Genius Act.
3. Macroeconomic risks. Yesterday, Fed protocols showed that inflation remains elevated. The forecast for keeping the rate unchanged in September remains in effect, but a rate hike in December is not ruled out.
4. Geopolitical risks — the war in the Middle East, and rising oil prices.
5. The stabilization of the Treasury bond market amid an increase in supply and continued inflationary pressure also implies a capital outflow from risky assets.
6. If the Clarity Act is not passed in September.
1. In September, investors expect the issuance of a large volume of corporate bonds and borrowing in the AI sector. This means a capital outflow from risky assets.
2. A shortage of stablecoins. The total supply of stablecoins has declined due to the implementation of the Genius Act.
3. Macroeconomic risks. Yesterday, Fed protocols showed that inflation remains elevated. The forecast for keeping the rate unchanged in September remains in effect, but a rate hike in December is not ruled out.
4. Geopolitical risks — the war in the Middle East, and rising oil prices.
5. The stabilization of the Treasury bond market amid an increase in supply and continued inflationary pressure also implies a capital outflow from risky assets.
6. If the Clarity Act is not passed in September.
What else stands in the way of the bullish trend:
1. In September, investors expect the issuance of a large volume of corporate bonds and borrowing in the AI sector. This means a capital outflow from risky assets.
2. A shortage of stablecoins. The total supply of stablecoins has declined due to the implementation of the Genius Act.
3. Macroeconomic risks. Yesterday, Fed protocols showed that inflation remains elevated. The forecast for keeping the rate unchanged in September remains in effect, but a rate hike in December is not ruled out.
4. Geopolitical risks — the war in the Middle East, and rising oil prices.
5. The stabilization of the Treasury bond market amid an increase in supply and continued inflationary pressure also implies a capital outflow from risky assets.
6. If the Clarity Act is not passed in September.
1. In September, investors expect the issuance of a large volume of corporate bonds and borrowing in the AI sector. This means a capital outflow from risky assets.
2. A shortage of stablecoins. The total supply of stablecoins has declined due to the implementation of the Genius Act.
3. Macroeconomic risks. Yesterday, Fed protocols showed that inflation remains elevated. The forecast for keeping the rate unchanged in September remains in effect, but a rate hike in December is not ruled out.
4. Geopolitical risks — the war in the Middle East, and rising oil prices.
5. The stabilization of the Treasury bond market amid an increase in supply and continued inflationary pressure also implies a capital outflow from risky assets.
6. If the Clarity Act is not passed in September.
IamKo
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I’ll explain the position from an economic perspective right now: why Bitcoin should not change its bearish trend:
Candle patterns—waves—sliding, and then everything after that!...
Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury announced that from September 9 to November 4 it would reduce the yield on long-term bonds through a reverse buyback, lowering the long end of the yield curve. Markets interpreted this step as QE (quantitative easing).
In other words, it seems to markets that by lowering the yield on long-term securities and weakening the dollar, the U.S. Treasury will support risk assets! But that’s not the case!
Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury announced that from September 9 to November 4 it would reduce the yield on long-term bonds through a reverse buyback, lowering the long end of the yield curve. Markets interpreted this step as QE (quantitative easing).
In other words, it seems to markets that by lowering the yield on long-term securities and weakening the dollar, the U.S. Treasury will support risk assets! But that’s not the case!
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