On a neighborhood worth $77,000-$78,000 is now interesting. At night the price was already pushed down to $76,952 and quickly brought back above. If the buyer continues to hold this zone, a return to $78,800-$79,400 is possible. A consolidation above $79,400 will open the way again to $80,000-$81,400. If loses $76,900, the next downside zones will be: $75,500-$76,000;
There is no single magical reason here. Just several factors coincided at the same time. First. After a strong rally, $BTC reached $81,400, but couldn't hold above it. In the $80,000–81,500 area, there was substantial liquidity; after it was removed, profit-taking began. Second. On Friday, the head of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, again emphasized high inflation and readiness to tighten policy. The probability of a rate hike as early as September rose to about 57%, and the yield on two-year Treasuries climbed to 4.34%.
Good morning. The weekend ended in a fairly predictable way: first, the market tried to continue higher, then it gathered liquidity from above, and overnight it adjusted normally. $BTC - $77 903, over the day -0.34%; $ETH - $2 437.66, over the day -0.76%; $SOL - $102.48, over the day -2.34%. Overnight, $BTC fell to $76 952, $ETH to $2 386, and $SOL tested $100.30. A reaction from the lows has appeared, but a full return of the buyer is still not there.
$BTC The latest Bitcoin rally is looking more and more like a move that was strongly fueled by short liquidations. When the market is rising on genuine aggressive demand, you usually can clearly see an advantage of market buys. There wasn’t such a steady edge here. 17–18 August the share of purchases was about 51–54%.
Demand from retail investors for $BTC has increased noticeably. The 30-day change in demand among small market participants has risen to about +16%. This is the highest level since December 2024. And there’s an interesting point here. Historically, such retail activity surges have quite often appeared already after a strong $BTC move and near local maxima.
14:30 GMT+3 - the ECB’s last meeting protocol. 15:30 GMT+3 - initial jobless claims in the United States. Forecast: 208 thousand. Previous value: 206 thousand. If applications come in above the forecast, it will indicate some easing in the labor market. Bond yields and the dollar may decline, which typically supports gold, cryptocurrencies, and the technology sector.
Overnight, $BTC dropped to $77,602, then returned above $78,500. The buyer appeared in the right area, but there is still no confirmation of further upside. Key levels for today: • Holding $78,300 maintains the probability of a move toward $79,200–80,000; • A close above $80,000 will open the way to the $82,000–85,000 area;
Cryptocurrencies: • $BTC — $78 756, per day −0,40%; • $ETH — $2 491,62, per day +1,11%; • $SOL — $101,62, per day +4,63%. Stock market indices: • Nasdaq 100 — 29 395,51, per day +0,73%; • S&P 500 — 7 695,7, per day +0,34%. Commodities and the dollar: • gold — $4 610,19, per day −0,68%; • Brent — $86,35, per day +0,49%; • WTI — $81,63, per day +0,95%; • U.S. Dollar Index — 98,88, per day +0,20%.
The US market finished the regular session with virtually no movement. PCE inflation proved persistent: the figure rose by 0.2% in July, so expectations for a quick easing of the Fed’s policy weakened slightly again. After the market close, NVIDIA reported. The results and forecast came in above expectations; the company’s shares gained about 4.7% in after-hours trading, and US index futures moved higher.
Everywhere I see the same messages: “longs, the bear trend is over, we’re waiting for $90,000+.” Where did you even get this, you failed traders?))) I’m not even talking about the chart.
I went to check the main indicators, and the first thing that caught my eye was the Fear & Greed Index. Obviously, the indicator is very conditional, but it can be used when analyzing mass sentiment.
So: in 3–4 days, the index jumped from fear to strong greed, and pay attention to exactly where.
For several days, the index was at the same level as it was when the BTC price was $126 thousand. From the very bottom... And then right to this level... Well, and what happened to Bitcoin when it hit $126 thousand is obvious to everyone.
The hamsters want growth, they want capital to multiply on the spot market, they want it all here and now—so they open longs at the peaks.
So, what do you say?)) Will the market feed all these hamsters?))) I have doubts 😁
Today, three areas are especially interesting at once: crypto after a strong weeklong rally, US stocks ahead of major reports, and commodities amid Iran, a weak dollar, and a shortage of supply. CRYPTOCURRENCIES $BTC The main benchmark for the whole market. The price is around $77,000 within the $75,500–78,000 range.
Markets begin the new week cautiously. After a strong move in crypto and a not-so-easy Friday on the stock market, participants are in no rush to take on new positions ahead of the week’s main events. CRYPTO MARKET $BTC is trading at around $77,100. Over the weekend, the price held within the range of $75,850–78,000 and did not give back most of last week’s gains.
In just a few days, Bitcoin moved from roughly $63,000 to $79,000 and added about 22% over the week. At its peak, $BTC rose above $79,000 for the first time since May. After that, the market already received its first normal cooldown: the price was pushed down to $75,000, where a buyer showed up. The increase wasn’t accidental. Several factors lined up at once:
In a bid not to let the market collapse and to rein in the sharp rise in yields ahead of the November midterm elections, the US Treasury will, out of sheer necessity, increase purchases of US government bonds.
This new liquidity will push BTC toward historically record-high levels.
THE U.S. AND CANADA DID NOT REACH AN AGREEMENT - NEW TARIFFS ENTERED INTO FORCE
The final round of trade negotiations between the United States and Canada ended without an agreement. After a three-day delay, Washington imposed tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods worth about $20 billion per year. Hundreds of product categories were affected, including alcohol, cement, furniture, plywood, electrical equipment, dairy products, clothing, fishing supplies, and hockey gear.
CRYPTO $BTC after a strong impulse reached $79,194, then in a short time it was driven down to $75,104. The drop from the high was about 5.2%, but the area was quickly bought back and the price returned to the $77,000 region. So the first unloading has already happened; later longs were partially removed, but a full structural reversal is not in place yet. The $75,000–$76,000 area has become the nearest buyer zone. As long as $BTC stays above it, there remains a chance of another move to $79,000 and further into the $82,000–$85,000 area.
WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT AND WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE MARKET NOW
At night, $BTC continued its impulse and rose to $79 194, but then the market was sharply turned downward. In a short time, Bitcoin was dumped to $75 104 — the correction from the high was about 5.2%. On the decline, late longs were taken off—positions that began to be widely built after the short squeeze. At the same time, the buyer quickly responded in the area of $75 000, and $BTC returned to around $77 000.
$BTC this wild surge was triggered only by verbal interventions from the Trump team.
Even if we theoretically assume that the bitcoin rise was triggered by capital outflows from bonds into bitcoin, there were clear timelines planned: from September 9 to November 4.
That is, the U.S. Treasury had not taken any actions yet! and it is not yet known whether it will.