The Iran-Iraq conflict escalates again
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币圈老腊肉1688-kevin
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$CL $BZ Trump blew up Iran! Is $70 oil the new “floor price”?
$70 could be a short-term “iron bottom,” and crude oil can be built up in batches to go long.
Why isn’t it falling further?
At Trump’s order, U.S. fighter jets bombed Iranian missile launchers and radar facilities, and then said, “Iran will cease to exist.”
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal? Trump tore it up himself—on the grounds that “Iran again violated the agreement.” The geopolitical risk premium returned overnight. Oil prices were forcibly held at the $70 level, with WTI jumping from 70.2 straight to above 72.5.
The key is that market confidence in the “agreement” has been wiped out. Last time it was Iranian missiles; this time it’s U.S. forces bombing. What next?
As long as the Israel-Iran line isn’t completely extinguished, it’s hard for oil prices to break below $70. Saudi Arabia also sent a support-at-$70 signal. Supply-demand factors and technical indicators are combining into a force.
If you want to bottom-fish and go long, you can enter in the $70–$72 range, set a stop-loss below $68, and look for the first target at $74–$75.
#美伊停火协议破裂
$70 could be a short-term “iron bottom,” and crude oil can be built up in batches to go long.
Why isn’t it falling further?
At Trump’s order, U.S. fighter jets bombed Iranian missile launchers and radar facilities, and then said, “Iran will cease to exist.”
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal? Trump tore it up himself—on the grounds that “Iran again violated the agreement.” The geopolitical risk premium returned overnight. Oil prices were forcibly held at the $70 level, with WTI jumping from 70.2 straight to above 72.5.
The key is that market confidence in the “agreement” has been wiped out. Last time it was Iranian missiles; this time it’s U.S. forces bombing. What next?
As long as the Israel-Iran line isn’t completely extinguished, it’s hard for oil prices to break below $70. Saudi Arabia also sent a support-at-$70 signal. Supply-demand factors and technical indicators are combining into a force.
If you want to bottom-fish and go long, you can enter in the $70–$72 range, set a stop-loss below $68, and look for the first target at $74–$75.
#美伊停火协议破裂
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