A strange headline from those who constantly scare people with posts about the fall of Bitcoin. Just don't think that we changed our shoes... 😅
Surely many of you, like us, are very tired of such a long bear market, which has lasted almost 2 years.
Perhaps you should buy Bitcoin now and forget about the charts until the bullrun starts?
Let's figure it out.
🛡 Bitcoin is currently trading under the strongest moving average MA200w. If you look at the entire available history of this moving average on the Bitcoin chart (and in general of any reliable asset), you will notice that the best prices for purchases are any marks below the MA200w moving average.
Look at the chart, as you can see the bottom of the market has always been below this moving average:
1️⃣ August 2015
This month was the end of a bear market that lasted 2 years.
As a result, the price fell under this moving average, after which the asset was immediately bought back and began a violent growth of +9800%.
2️⃣ January 2019
The situation is similar to that in 2015. Bitcoin was in a bearish trend for just over a year and the end of the bearish trend came when Bitcoin fell to the moving MA200w. Then the price staged a rally of +300% and would have continued to grow if the Black Swan (covid-19) had not arrived.
3️⃣ March 2020
Once again, the market decline ended after testing the MA200w moving average. To be more precise, after a false breakout of this moving average.
Then another violent growth of +1585% starts
4️⃣ June 2022
The price completely falls under the moving MA200w. Then the price trades along this moving average and was ready to start a bullish rally, but suddenly a Black Swan arrives (FTX crash) and the price immediately falls even lower.
As a result, if you bought Bitcoin when it just fell under the moving average, then despite the Black Swan, you would end up taking more than +69% profit.
5️⃣ Our time
Bitcoin has fallen below the moving MA200w and is trying to return higher.
The situation in the world's economies is very bad, so as we expect, sooner or later a Black Swan will arrive and crash the markets (read previous posts). But what if this doesn't happen (unlikely)?
⚖️What about risk profit?
Let's imagine that you bought Bitcoin at current prices and suddenly a black swan arrives. According to our hypothesis, Bitcoin will no longer fall below $19,500 (we are not waiting for loys to be updated). In this case, you will have a drawdown of -29%.
However, what if there is no Black Swan? Will the price continue to rise? Then you will end up buying Bitcoin much higher than current prices, or perhaps not buying at all and missing out on the entire rally.
Let's take the most pessimistic target price for Bitcoin in the future rally - $47,000. In this case, it turns out that if you buy Bitcoin now, your risk-profit will be at least slightly less than 1 to 3. In trading, this is considered the most optimal value.
📊 Result:
Now you understand the significance of this moving average for Bitcoin. Essentially, this moving average reflects the real value of the asset, and therefore any prices below this moving average are excellent for purchases in the medium or long term.
Will you buy Bitcoin at current prices or will you wait for a collapse like us - the choice is yours (we have already bought Bitcoin, but most of the funds are waiting for better levels).
But first, give yourself an answer to the question: “What’s worse? Wait out a drawdown of -29% or miss a growth of at least +73%?”
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