Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top. Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below). Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it. Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏 #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving #Cycles #HalvingCylces #BitcoinCycles #BTCcycles
$BTC pumped by ~13% from yesterday's low 🚀 Very bullish, especially comparing to stock indices that are stuck in correction.
Nevertheless keep in mind trend factor - to exit downtrend BTC needs to cross above last Weekly LH at ~82828. Till it does, it remains within HTF downtrend.
Earlier I've wrote that 69-72k zone is for taking shorts. That remains true, BUT we should WAIT for momentum to fade away and reversal PA to show up, before taking shorts. Otherwise you risk joining army of liquidated shorters.
I've taken profits from my spot buys made on the dips during June-July by pre-set limit orders at average sell price ~71560. Maybe too early, but I've been waiting 3 months and I am more than happy with profit 😅 Not shorting yet - reasons described above.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts zone around 72k (wait for PA confirmation) * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, 73653, 60800
To exit the downtrend, $BTC needs to cross above the last weekly lower high at ~82828.
But the pump looks solid - we may see a new high tomorrow.
#Bitcoin is now covering the gaps from the June 1st and 2nd dumps. Each of those gaps is packed with people who’ve been waiting 80+ days for a chance to exit at break-even. Will they get swept as liquidity, or will they actually stop the price?
$BTC has covered both zones I marked on Monday. As a reminder, price has remained inside the same consolidation range for over 2.5 months, and the higher timeframe is still in a downtrend.
To grab more liquidity, price either needs to break above 65,800 or drop below 62,200 (the nearest 63.6k liquidity pool is a smaller one).
Don’t ask which scenario is more likely - flipping a coin would give you a forecast of the same precision. Short-term, though, I think we should watch the retest of 64.7k and, based on the price action there, either look for a breakout or a rejection and dump back toward the Daily 20EMA and the key zones that follow.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
As expected $BTC wicked under the trendline, but not that much, and those dips gave enough volume to push it back up on Monday. Nevertheless Week candle closed under previous week open.
UK/US Friday POC correlates with week close. If downtrend continues, we may expect temporary bounce to one of the nearest key liquidity zones and then another swing down.
I'd be careful with swing longs at least till BTC grows above 67k - till then every bullish move has higher chances to be a trap, rather than a reversal. Follow the trend.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
Alarm for $ETH Daily 20ema cross appeared in TG at $1884.2 👌🏼
#Ethereum remains within a choppy range, but at least we see another attempt to find acceptance above Daily 20ema and trendline (based on Daily closes).
Weekly 20ema at 1985 and moving down. At some point we should see a re-test of that dynamic SR.
⏰ Free TG alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1943, 1852, 1775, 1680
I expected $BTC to bounce to 64.1-64.7k, but the fact that it made that move while stock indices were dumping amazes me - unbelievable bullishness for the most bearish and risky asset.
Nevertheless now it seems that BTC is getting ready to pull back to Daily 20ema and FVG under it around 63680.
As expected $BTC wicked under the trendline, but not that much, and those dips gave enough volume to push it back up on Monday. Nevertheless Week candle closed under previous week open.
UK/US Friday POC correlates with week close. If downtrend continues, we may expect temporary bounce to one of the nearest key liquidity zones and then another swing down.
I'd be careful with swing longs at least till BTC grows above 67k - till then every bullish move has higher chances to be a trap, rather than a reversal. Follow the trend.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
As expected $BTC wicked under the trendline, but not that much, and those dips gave enough volume to push it back up on Monday. Nevertheless Week candle closed under previous week open.
UK/US Friday POC correlates with week close. If downtrend continues, we may expect temporary bounce to one of the nearest key liquidity zones and then another swing down.
I'd be careful with swing longs at least till BTC grows above 67k - till then every bullish move has higher chances to be a trap, rather than a reversal. Follow the trend.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
$BTC losing the week open at 63550. Dip under the trendline looks inevitable. Most probably it’ll hunt for stops under 62228, maybe even cover 61806 on the same move. The rest is unpredictable.
Frankly, on the Daily and Weekly this chart looks very dumpy. But the market rarely does the most obvious move - or at least not without some fake moves and manipulations. I’ve been pointing at ~60.8k since July 3rd, and that level still acts as a magnet. The difference now is that if it had dipped there back then, the chances of a bounce would’ve been much higher. These days it looks more probable that it’ll just skip it and dump straight to 44-48k
$BTC losing the week open at 63550. Dip under the trendline looks inevitable. Most probably it’ll hunt for stops under 62228, maybe even cover 61806 on the same move. The rest is unpredictable.
Frankly, on the Daily and Weekly this chart looks very dumpy. But the market rarely does the most obvious move - or at least not without some fake moves and manipulations. I’ve been pointing at ~60.8k since July 3rd, and that level still acts as a magnet. The difference now is that if it had dipped there back then, the chances of a bounce would’ve been much higher. These days it looks more probable that it’ll just skip it and dump straight to 44-48k
$ETH pulled back to Daily 20ema and July close and now trying to break "red" resistance zone again. Same as BTC, price action here is getting ready for sharp impulse move to capture larger liquidity pools. Waiting for it as well.
Range top at ~1950 and bottom at ~1845
P.S. Trendlines based on Daily closes.
⏰ Free TG #Ethereum alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1943, 1852, 1775, 1680
Wise Analyze
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$ETH reached upper key zone at 1940, but couldn't breakout higher. Now that level can be taken as range top.
I moved alarm to 1943 to monitor next breakout attempt as it has higher chances to get higher (Weekly 20ema now correlates with my target zone at 2k).
At the same time if #Ethereum start dipping first, then we'll see 1885 earlier. If that scenario is in play you'll see alarm for Daily 20ema cross here (now at 1888 and growing).
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1943, 1775, 1680
Correction POC around 64105. Yesterday's US POC at 63500 and UK 64305 form small timeframe range. If $BTC find acceptance above 64.1k it should wick towards ~64.7-64.9k. If lose 63500 it will drop to 63130. Developing 1-2H candles look bearish. But these are nearest targets.
After that we should see a strong impulse move, as many factors are pointing at HTF consolidation stage nearing the end. By strong impulse I mean a move that will break above or below current HTF 59-67k range.
$ETH reached upper key zone at 1940, but couldn't breakout higher. Now that level can be taken as range top.
I moved alarm to 1943 to monitor next breakout attempt as it has higher chances to get higher (Weekly 20ema now correlates with my target zone at 2k).
At the same time if #Ethereum start dipping first, then we'll see 1885 earlier. If that scenario is in play you'll see alarm for Daily 20ema cross here (now at 1888 and growing).
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1943, 1775, 1680
Wise Analyze
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Watch $ETH moving sideway now. That means sharp move is coming, first part of which can be fake stop hunting above 1885 (guaranteed). That may possibly lead to re-test of 1907-1915 zone.
On the downside 1840 zone already been tested multiple times, soi next dip has higher chances to reach 1800 / 1770 / 1748.
Higher timeframe - consolidation on the bounce within downtrend. So theoretically this may evolve as a bull flag, but HTF downtrend is a stronger factor. Therefore being bearish should be a safer choice till Ethereum really reverse and reclaim ~1950 as support.
⏰ Free TG #Ethereum alarms set for: W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1937, 1775, 1680
My last week's review target zones played out perfectly - ETH tried several times but got rejected above 1925 => after that dipped to my nearest green dot (key liquidity zone) <1828 ✅✅
$BTC starting it's 10th week within 59-67k range, which from higher timeframe appears to be a usual bear pennant/flag. Taking into account highly manipulative character of Bitcoin price action, I still stick to idea that pump into 69-72k zone has very high chances to happen before further collapse.
On the chart I've marked ~65.5k level as the nearest liquidity pool market will target on the upside. Will it lead to range top breakout attempt or will be rejected and dumped, impossible to predict.
Visible range POC at ~63.8-64k - that is the nearest noteworthy liquidity pool on the downside.
$BTC dipped to ~63.8k and bounced to ~65k resistance where it got rejected ✅
Short term watch 64400-65000 consolidation range. Wicks out of the range hunt for liquidity, but if fail to return inside may signal start of a new phase. So while within, chances for pump higher stay with next meaningful level above 65800. If lose that range down, then we should expect correction. In this case refer to nearest key levels below.
$BTC bullish impulse is slowing down to consolidate at Daily 20ema. The next short term move has 50/50 chances to pump towards ~64.7/65k or to start a correction with nearest levels at ~63800 (guaranteed), 63550 (week open and FVG) and ~63150 that may be reached within same wave.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 60-60.6k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
Considering yesterday's Day candle closed relatively bullish we may expect BTC to at least wick above yesterday's high at 64513 before collapsing (if it will). That doesn't deny dip to guaranteed ~63800 though.
S&P500 pumped high and most probably should be getting ready for correction move. The big question if Bitcoin will get these free risk-tolerant money or join the fear with crash.
Watch $ETH moving sideway now. That means sharp move is coming, first part of which can be fake stop hunting above 1885 (guaranteed). That may possibly lead to re-test of 1907-1915 zone.
On the downside 1840 zone already been tested multiple times, soi next dip has higher chances to reach 1800 / 1770 / 1748.
Higher timeframe - consolidation on the bounce within downtrend. So theoretically this may evolve as a bull flag, but HTF downtrend is a stronger factor. Therefore being bearish should be a safer choice till Ethereum really reverse and reclaim ~1950 as support.
⏰ Free TG #Ethereum alarms set for: W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1937, 1775, 1680
My last week's review target zones played out perfectly - ETH tried several times but got rejected above 1925 => after that dipped to my nearest green dot (key liquidity zone) <1828 ✅✅
Wise Analyze
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My last week's review target zones played out perfectly - alarm at 1970 marked the top of that swing 👌🏼 The LTF uptrend $ETH formed in July is yet not broken (keeps drawing new HL and HH), but there are certain signs that we may see a correction soon.
Same as with BTC there might be a bounce for a re-test of FVG left from over night dump (~1895-1911). Strong resistance just a little above at ~1925. If that bounce won't make a strong breakout above both zones, dump lower is inevitable.
From higher timeframe perspective I'd wait for ~1770 at least. This level may give a bounce and support growth towards 2k, but we won't know that till it does. If fails, next will be 1680.
⏰ Free TG #Ethereum alarms set for: D/W20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1775, 1680
$BTC bullish impulse is slowing down to consolidate at Daily 20ema. The next short term move has 50/50 chances to pump towards ~64.7/65k or to start a correction with nearest levels at ~63800 (guaranteed), 63550 (week open and FVG) and ~63150 that may be reached within same wave.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 60-60.6k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
Considering yesterday's Day candle closed relatively bullish we may expect BTC to at least wick above yesterday's high at 64513 before collapsing (if it will). That doesn't deny dip to guaranteed ~63800 though.
S&P500 pumped high and most probably should be getting ready for correction move. The big question if Bitcoin will get these free risk-tolerant money or join the fear with crash.
Four oversold alarms in between 62624 and 62514 marked the bottom of that dip. Even when I am silent my telegram channel brings value 🤌
So far $BTC is being rejected from Daily 20ema which correlates with POC level for visible chart. All that while SPX and DJI are breaking into new ATH. In older times Bitcoin could follow stocks, but now it is as heavy as Gold, and remains within downtrend. So very hard to predict.
Mid term I'd wait either for pump to ~64.7/65k or for the dip to ~63100. Even closer levels at 63550 (week open and FVG) below and 64050 above. These are for shorter timeframes swings.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 60-60.6k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
No sense in posting any more reviews for this shitcoin as it doesn't move anywhere 🤬 High timeframe downtrend dictates that main direction is down, I'll wait for the dips under 61k and see what happens there. It may take hours or days or weeks. No one knows. Switching to other instruments till then.
$BTC keeps on trying to break through the main LTF resistance around 64.8-65k. Not much interest in that zone, so either BTC will breakout to 66.3k with some chances to continue towards range top. That will be third attempt so higher chances for breakout towards 69-71k
... or there will be a rejection and dump to 60.6-61.3k
Wednesday demonstrated a nightmare choppiness for lower timeframes - fake pump on US open followed by dump, and another pump and another dump, which by today is fully recovered. Days like that increase my confidence in absolute futility of trying to predict anything. All we can do is wait for major zones.
Re-test of the Daily 20 EMA and the US Monday low located within the 64194-64534 FVG done ✅ Will that move extend further or we should expect next leg down?
Now main resistance capable of turning price back is around 64.8-65k. Not much interest in that zone, so either $BTC will breakout to 66.3k with some chances to continue towards range top or there will be a rejection and dump to 61.3k
On the downside, watch 64200 as the nearest bullish support. Collapsing lower will take BTC to 61300, and finally 60600 for a huge liquidity hunt. Any of those zones may give a bounce, but the ~60.6k liquidity pool remains the main magnet on this chart.
Previous 4 weeks BTC was bullish, but that was a dead cat bounce within downtrend. If that HTF trend continues, high chances to see 44-48k within nearest 3 months.