- Biggest day for aggregators since 10/10, implying a ton of retail users came to trade
- Fee volatility remained the lowest across all chains, and median fees were the lowest across all major chains at $0.000487
Basically, Solana reached never before seen usage and yet users paid predictably low fees for execution
During this same period, Base experienced inclusion delays, with many users reporting the chain was unusable, and the median fee users paid to transact was 26x (!!!) that of Solana's
Other notes:
- ATH on tokenized stock volume
- Record USDT availability on Solana, crossing over $3b in supply for the first time
- Excluding 10/10, biggest day for some foreign wrapped tokens including Ethereum, and HYPE on Solana had it's biggest volume day ever
- More wallets made a transaction on Solana than all other chains combined yesterday #sol
It behaves more like a regime-switching, path-dependent, non-linear stochastic system with structural constraints, where small inputs can trigger disproportionately large moves, even though outcomes remain probabilistic.
Bullish doesn’t mean “up only.” It means price formation is not pure noise.
Evidence: Hurst exponent: H ≈ 0.88 (random walk = 0.50) → strong persistence
Variance-ratio tests across horizons reject random-walk behavior (p<0.001)
Autocorrelation/runs tests reject independence
Long-run log-log scaling fit is high (R² ~0.96 in real-history windows)
For a coin-flip/random process, time-based trend fit is expected to be unstable and ~0%
What that implies: Short term: brutal, reflexive, leverage-driven Long term: structured, path-dependent, trend-bearing
So the bullish case is simple: If a process has memory and scales with time, deep drawdowns are not automatically thesis failure.
They are often mean-reversion stress events inside a persistent growth regime.
Rejecting random walk does not guarantee gains. It says price formation has structure and memory. Treating Bitcoin as pure randomness ignores the strongest signal in the data.
Why this Matters: When a process has memory like Bitcoin, patience is not passive.
You never sell your Bitcoin, you never loan against your Bitcoin, you never take your Bitcoin off Self custody. MainStreet over Wall Street, they want to control us, we can't let them.
LATEST: 📉 Vitalik Buterin has sold 6,183 ETH over three days, according to Lookonchain, the week after announcing he would use his personal funds to support Ethereum development. #ETH
- borrowed against your Bitcoin stack when Bitcoin was $126K - had a 38% or higher LTV (loan-to-value) on your entire stack ($47,944+ loan if you have 1 BTC) - didn't have any more collateral to add when you received a margin call at 70%
You would have gotten liquidated in today's wick down to $59,930, with an LTV of 80% ($47,944/$59,930)
If you're going to borrow against your Bitcoin, always try to keep your LTV BELOW 10% so you can add more collateral whenever it's needed
10% LTV will protect you in case Bitcoin drops to $15,750, or 87.5% from the top
Don't get liquidated
Your lender will sell your Bitcoin at a massive loss to pay off your loan, and the process is automated (no negotiations)
Bitcoin just dropped below its 2021 ATH, while alts are in free fall. Here’s why:
1. Everything is dumping
- Stocks are dumping today - Precious metals are dumping - Oil prices are dumping
This is a sign that investors are exiting risk assets, and crypto is going down with them.
2. Too much FUD
- Epstein is Satoshi - Saylor will go bankrupt - USDT is depegging - Quantum will kill Bitcoin - Tom Lee will sell ETH
All these FUD narratives are hitting at once, forcing panic selling.
3. Weak job data
- January job cuts soared 118% YoY, now at the highest level since 2009. - JOLTS job openings came in far below expectations, signaling a weak labor market. - Yet the Fed remains hawkish and is pausing rate cuts.
This is raising recession fears, triggering a broad market sell-off.
My thoughts - The crypto market is deeply oversold. - Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is lower than during the FTX crash, and alts are heavily oversold too. - The market looks very close to a bottom. $BTC $ETH
Crypto was born from distrust. Distrust of banks that collapsed and got bailed out. Distrust of governments that promised stability and delivered chaos. Distrust of powerful people who always seem to escape consequences. That is why the release and renewed discussion of the Epstein files immediately reignited old questions in the crypto world. When trust is already broken, every secret feels connected. One of the most persistent and controversial ideas is the Epstein Satoshi Bitcoin theory. The claim is not that there is proof, but that there are unanswered questions that refuse to go away. There is no confirmed link between Jeffrey Epstein and Satoshi Nakamoto. No documents. No emails. No direct evidence. Yet the speculation continues. To understand why, you have to understand both Bitcoin and the moment we are living in. Why the Epstein Files Sparked Crypto Speculation Every time new Epstein-related documents resurface, public trust takes another hit. The files remind people that Epstein was not operating alone and that powerful institutions failed to stop him. For many, the biggest takeaway from the Epstein files is not what was revealed, but what still feels hidden. That mindset spreads quickly. If elite networks can hide crimes, manipulate systems, and protect their own, people start questioning everything connected to power and money. That includes Bitcoin. The Epstein files did not mention Bitcoin or crypto directly. But they revived a deeper fear. That the systems shaping our financial future may have origins we do not fully understand. Why Satoshi Nakamoto Still Matters Satoshi Nakamoto is the most important anonymous figure in modern finance. Satoshi created Bitcoin, published the whitepaper, released the code, mined the first coins, and then disappeared. Those early wallets still hold over a million Bitcoin, untouched for more than a decade. At current prices, that makes Satoshi one of the richest entities in history. And yet, nothing has been spent. No influence. No power plays. No public presence. That silence fuels the Satoshi Nakamoto mystery. People ask reasonable questions. Was Satoshi one person or a group? Was it a cypherpunk reacting to the 2008 financial crisis? Was it someone with deep knowledge of the financial system? Or someone connected to elite circles who understood how broken money really was? The absence of answers leaves room for speculation. Bitcoin’s Timing and the 2008 Financial Crisis Bitcoin did not appear randomly. It emerged just after the 2008 financial crisis, when banks failed, governments stepped in, and ordinary people paid the price. Trust in institutions collapsed almost overnight. Bitcoin offered something radical. Money without permission. Rules without rulers. A system that did not rely on trust in people. This timing is one reason conspiracy theories follow Bitcoin so closely. When something powerful emerges from chaos, people look for hidden motives. Some ask whether Bitcoin was designed as a response to corruption or as a tool to exploit it. Where Epstein Fits Into the Theory Epstein was deeply embedded in elite networks. He funded academic research, surrounded himself with scientists, and maintained relationships with powerful figures across finance and politics. That reality leads some to speculate. If Epstein had access to brilliant minds and hidden financial channels, could people in his orbit have influenced technologies designed to move money without oversight? It is an unsettling question. But it remains speculation. There is no evidence Epstein was involved in Bitcoin’s creation. The idea persists because it fits a broader narrative of distrust, not because it is supported by facts. Why People Want This Theory to Be True The Epstein Bitcoin conspiracy survives because it aligns with how many people feel. People believe elites play by different rules. People believe money is hidden offshore. People believe the truth is rarely fully disclosed. When someone asks whether Bitcoin could have been created by people who benefit from secrecy, it feels emotionally believable, even without proof. There is also a deeper fear beneath the speculation. If Bitcoin’s creator had dark motives, does that make Bitcoin itself untrustworthy? The Reality of Bitcoin’s Open Design This is where the theory breaks down. Bitcoin is open source. Anyone can inspect the code. Thousands of developers, researchers, and governments have analyzed it. There are no secret controls. No hidden access. No elite privileges. Bitcoin does not rely on trust in its creator. It relies on math, incentives, and consensus. Even if Satoshi’s identity turned out to be controversial, the Bitcoin network would not change. Blocks would still be produced. Transactions would still be verified. That is the difference between Bitcoin and traditional financial systems.
SATOSHI NAKAMOTO: "I actually did this kind of backwards. I had to write all the code before I could convince myself that I could solve every problem, then I wrote the paper." $BTC