USD: Fed reaction function supports strength – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the Dollar strengthened after the latest Fed meeting, driven by several smaller hawkish signals rather than a single major shift. Powell stressed that rate cuts depend on inflation moving toward target, while long-term expectations remain anchored. Markets feel vindicated in pricing fewer cuts as energy prices rise, supporting a stronger Dollar outlook.
Fed stance underpins Dollar resilience
"The US dollar gained ground following the Fed’s decision yesterday. The decisive factor was not one strong signal - after all, the statement was only slightly revised and the projections remained virtually unchanged - but rather a series of smaller ones.#FTXCreditorPayouts #SECApprovesNasdaqTokenizedStocksPilot
Bitcoin / Dollar intraday: the downside prevails as long as 71440 is resistance
The downside prevails as long as 71440 is resistance. 74,060.00 Resistance ••• 73,080.00 Resistance •• 71,440.00 Resistance • 70,148.00 Last 71,440.00 Pivot 67,880.00 Support • 66,900.00 Support •• 65,930.00 Support ••• Comment The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 70937 and 71777). Alternative scenario Above 71440, look for 73080 and 74060. #FTXCreditorPayouts $BTC
Our preference Short positions below 4835 with targets at 4705 & 4650 in extension. 4,940.000 Resistance ••• 4,895.000 Resistance •• 4,835.000 Resistance • 4,749.000 Last 4,835.000 Pivot 4,705.000 Support • 4,650.000 Support •• 4,600.000 Support ... Comment The RSI shows downside momentum. Alternative scenario Above 4835 look for further upside with 4895 & 4940 as targets.#xauusdtrading $XAU
BTCUSD moved within the ascending channel, which formed when the price touched the channel borders 8 times and has been valid since 25 February. Current situation BTCUSD broke the ascending channel. Possible scenario Analysts recommend opening a Sell order with a stop loss near the lower channel border. We will publish our next post on price channels at 3:00 p.m. UTC today. Come back to discover more trading insights. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you.#SECApprovesNasdaqTokenizedStocksPilot #danmalikiTHEBBI $BTC
Heads up! BTCUSD formed a bearish Flag pattern. Time to trade?
Analysis explanation: flag
General outlook BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays the Flag pattern. If the price rebounds from the upper border or confirms a breakout of the lower border of the Flag pattern, analysts recommend opening a Sell order. You could potentially earn 70 USD on a 0.1 lot order if the price moves as forecasted. However, note that you could lose even more if the market moves against you. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you.#BTCUSD $BTC
Possible opportunity: XAUUSD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern
Analysis explanation: Three white soldiers and Three black Crows General outlook XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays the Three Black Crows pattern. The price is ready to drop. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you. #MarchFedMeeting $XAU
HSBC’s China macro team reviews January–February 2026 data and the latest National People’s Congress outcomes, highlighting a GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026. The bank notes strong Fixed Asset Investment, resilient industrial production, and solid exports, alongside proactive fiscal policy, infrastructure-heavy investment plans, and a clear focus on boosting domestic demand, technological upgrading, and capital market reforms under the 15th Five-Year Plan.
Growth target and policy support
China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) concluded on 12 March, after a week of policy-setting meetings.
The headline GDP growth target was set as 4.5% to 5% for 2026, with a commitment to strive for even better results in practice
China will maintain a proactive fiscal stance, with the central government absorbing a larger share of spending. This shift is a response to ongoing pressures from weakness in the property market, subdued price levels, and slower tax growth, as well as the need to kickstart the 15th FYP. The government is front-loading fiscal support, accelerating bond issuance, and aiming to implement reforms to align local and central fiscal management.
Spending priorities are closely tied to long-term goals: boosting domestic demand, advancing technology and industrial upgrading, and safeguarding livelihoods.
"Major projects are set to be the principal catalyst for higher investment. The 15th FYP outlines 109 projects across the “Six Networks” (water, power grids, computing power, communications, pipelines and logistics), as well as transportation, consumption, education, and healthcare infrastructure. These projects are anticipated to drive total investment to over RMB7trn this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Our preference resistance. The downside prevails as long as 72370 is
75,030.00 Resistance •••
74,040.00 Resistance ••
72,370.00 Resistance • 70,538.00 Last
72,370.00 Pivot
68,530.00 Support •
67,550.00 Support ••
66,570.00 Support ••• Real 1,358.20 USC : Comment The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the price is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 71872 and 73280). Alternative scenario The upside breakout of 72370, would call for 74040 and 75030 #SECClarifiesCryptoClassification $BTC
Watching BTCUSD: the asset is moving within the 70,000.00–74,000.00 range
General outlook BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. Now, the support level is located at 70,000.00. If the pair rebounds from the support level, analysts recommend opening a Buy order with a take profit at the nearest resistance level. In case the breakout is confirmed, analysts suggest opening a Sell order. Resistance levels are now located at 74,000.00 and 79,200.00. Fundamental factors The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision will be released at 6:00 p.m. UTC today and could affect this trade. We will publish our next post on support and resistance levels at 4:00 a.m. UTC tomorrow. Come back to discover more trading insights. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you. #BTC突破7万大关 #XAUUSD❤️ $BTC
Watching XAUUSD: the asset is moving within the 4,600.00–5,000.00 range
General outlook XAUUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. Now, the support level is located at 4,600.00. Resistance levels are now located at 5,000.00 and 5,400.00. Analysts recommend opening a Sell order with a stop loss above the previous high. Fundamental factors The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision will be released at 6:00 p.m. UTC today and could affect this trade. We will publish our next post on support and resistance levels at 4:00 a.m. UTC tomorrow. Come back to discover more trading insights. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you.#USFebruaryPPISurgedSurprisingly $BTC
USD/CAD eases toward 1.3700 as BoC holds rates, Fed decision in focus
USD/CAD eases as the Canadian Dollar steadies after the BoC interest rate decision. BoC leaves rates unchanged at 2.25%, signals readiness to act if needed amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty. US Dollar firms ahead of the Fed decision, limiting downside in the pair.
USD/CAD trims part of its earlier gains on Wednesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds some support following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement. However, the pair lacks follow-through selling as the US Dollar (USD) holds firms ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision due at 18:00 GMT.
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3701. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.85, rebounding after two days of decline.#BitcoinHits$75K #Canada #danmalikiTHEBBI
BoC: Dovish hold with skew to easing – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists report that the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% and dropped guidance that the current rate is appropriate. They now see growth risks tilted lower and inflation risks higher, with near-term policy risks skewed toward easing unless a prolonged Middle East conflict forces a reassessment.
Growth risks down, inflation risks up
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% as widely expected, as the policy statement struck another cautious tone by leaning into softer economic data since January. The Bank noted that risks to growth are now tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
The Bank stated that it intends to look through higher near-term energy prices but that it will not let this broaden into persistent inflation. They also removed the language from their forward guidance that the current overnight rate remains appropriate. We don't think that signals an imminent shift in policy, but fits with the notion that near-term risks remain skewed towards easing, while a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would make it more difficult to look through.
BoC flagging the risk of stagflation and a high bar to hike rates potentially given the softening in labor market momentum recently. We like CAD in the current environment vs non-USD peers as it has a lower beta to risk-off, oil links and terms of trade boost (even though modest), and is less exposed to any growth slowdown on the other side of the world from an extended conflict (as it is mainly exposed to the US). However, we expect USDCAD to keep moving higher the longer this extends. Rates and growth differentials will be in favor of the US along with the sustained risk-off.#astermainnet #USDCAD #danmalikiTHEBBI
Canada: Spending data shows tentative resilience – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Rachel Battaglia and Abbey Xu report that Canadian cardholder spending improved modestly in February, even as consumers continued to reduce discretionary goods purchases. Their core retail sales measure on a three‑month average stayed slightly negative but improved from January, with discretionary services and essentials offsetting weakness in goods and travel-related categories showing resilience.
Card data point to soft improvement
"RBC Canadian cardholder spending showed modest improvement in February despite consumers continuing to cut back on discretionary goods spending."
Our core retail sales measure on a three-month average remained negative at -0.1%, but marked an improvement from -0.3% (seasonally adjusted), indicating the decline eased in February after weather-related disruptions and post-holiday fatigue weighed on spending in January."
"February’s contraction came entirely from discretionary goods—clothing and related retail segments was among the weakest performers."
"Weakness in discretionary goods spending was partially offset by spending growth in discretionary services and essentials. Travel, entertainment and art posted the strongest gains on a three-month average, pointing to continued resilience in experience-related spending."
"We expect higher oil prices will drive up purchases at gas stations. The impact on other essentials and discretionary spending is less clear as it will depend on how consumers allocate their remaining income, and the extent to which they tap into their savings."#SECClarifiesCryptoClassification #canada
US headline Producer Prices rose by 3.4% YoY in February
US Producer Prices rose 3.4% in February from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The print came in well above estimates (2.9%) and the 2.9% gain recorded in the previous month.
Stripping out food and energy, core Producer Prices also surprised to the upside, gaining 3.9% YoY, above the 3.7% forecast and up from the previous 3.5% increase (revised from 3.6%YoY). #GTC2026 #astermainnet #MarchFedMeeting
BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu notes that Emerging Market FX carry trades remain resilient despite the Middle East conflict, with only INR and RON now underheld among 12 high-yielders. He highlights real rates and credible EM central banks as key supports, alongside potential Fed pushback on rate cuts. TRY stands out for fiscal concerns, while IDR risks joining the underheld group.
Real rates underpin EM carry resilience
"Of the 12 Emerging Market (EM) currencies that we characterize as high-yielding – and for which we have sufficient data density – only INR and RON have moved into underheld territory based on the latest available data."
The XAUUSD analysis was completed with a profit, closed at Take Profit level ✅ Your PROFIT in $ depends on your LOT: 🏆 Lot=0,01 👉 + 110$ 🏆 Lot=0,05 👉 + 550$ 🏆 Lot=0,1 👉 + 1,100$ $XAU #SECClarifiesCryptoClassification #XAUUSD❤️
Mid-term analysis: BTCUSD formed a bearish Head and Shoulders
Analysis explanation:head and shoulders
General outlook BTCUSD traded in a bullish trend from 14 March. Now, the price displays the Head and Shoulders pattern. In case of a breakout or a retest of the Neckline level, analysts recommend opening a Sell order. Place stop loss behind the Right Shoulder level. You could potentially earn 20 USD on a 0.01 lot order if the price moves as forecasted. However, note that you could lose even more if the market moves against you. Disclaimer This market analysis focuses on mid-term trends, relevant for up to two weeks. Short-term movements may vary, and other analyses might suggest a different direction. Always consider your timeframe before making trading decisions. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you.$BTC #MarchFedMeeting #BTC走势分析
Mid-term analysis: BTCUSD formed a bearish Head and Shoulders
Analysis explanation:head and shoulders
General outlook BTCUSD traded in a bullish trend from 14 March. Now, the price displays the Head and Shoulders pattern. In case of a breakout or a retest of the Neckline level, analysts recommend opening a Sell order. Place stop loss behind the Right Shoulder level. You could potentially earn 20 USD on a 0.01 lot order if the price moves as forecasted. However, note that you could lose even more if the market moves against you. Disclaimer This market analysis focuses on mid-term trends, relevant for up to two weeks. Short-term movements may vary, and other analyses might suggest a different direction. Always consider your timeframe before making trading decisions. Share your thoughts in the comments section if it's available for you.$BTC #MarchFedMeeting #BTC走势分析