CryptoQuant Quicktake

Open interest across all XRP Ledger derivatives currently reads 912.8M, a fraction of the roughly 3.9B peak this chart hit in September 2025. Price sits at $1.3, down from highs above $3 during that same stretch.
The relationship between these two lines has shifted depending on the period. Through most of 2024, open interest tracked price closely but at a much smaller scale, both grinding sideways before the late 2024 breakout. Once price broke above $2 in November 2024, open interest exploded alongside it, hitting a first major peak near 3.9B in January 2025, pulled back hard, then spiked again to its all time high just under 4B in September 2025, right as price made a secondary attempt near $3.70.
What happened after that September peak is the part worth sitting with. Open interest collapsed from nearly 4B toward 1B within a few months, a far steeper decline than price, which fell from around $3.20 to $1.80, roughly 44%, while open interest fell closer to 75%. Leverage unwound considerably faster than spot price itself, consistent with forced deleveraging rather than price simply drifting lower.
Since early 2026, both lines have largely stabilized at much lower levels, open interest oscillating in a tight 600M to 1.3B band while price chopped between $1.80 and $2.50 before the recent pullback toward $1.30.
My honest read: the scale of leverage currently in this market is a small fraction of what existed a year ago, even with price also down substantially. Lower price and proportionally even lower open interest together suggest this market is carrying meaningfully less leveraged risk than it did at last year's peak, less fuel for a sharp move either way.
What I'm watching: whether open interest starts rebuilding meaningfully from these depressed levels as any price recovery develops, or whether it stays this subdued even if price pushes higher.
Written by R3N

Bitcoin reserves on Binance have declined sharply over the past 18 days, even as BTC experienced a price correction.
According to data, Binance's Bitcoin reserves fell from 705,520 BTC on September 21 to 664,831 BTC on October 9, representing a net decline of 40,689 BTC, or 5.77%.
Notably, this decline occurred while Bitcoin's price dropped from $84,000 to $81,000, a 3.57% decrease over the same period.
The divergence suggests that Bitcoin continued moving out of Binance's tracked reserves despite the market correction, rather than showing a net increase in exchange holdings.
Declining exchange reserves can reduce the amount of Bitcoin readily available for trading, potentially easing future selling pressure if the trend persists.
Written by Amr Taha

On October 8, a U.S. government-linked wallet holding Bitcoin seized from the 2016 Bitfinex hacker transferred 12,267 BTC, worth approximately $1.01 billion, to unidentified addresses.
The movement raised fears of potential government selling, although no sale has been confirmed.
Amid these concerns, Short-Term Holder (STH) P&L to Exchanges indicator recorded a sharp shift in behavior.
The metric tracks Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by short-term holders at a profit or loss, highlighting potential selling pressure rather than confirmed sales.
On October 8, STH loss-side transfers reached -55,600 BTC, exceeding the June 26 reading of -49,250 BTC by 12.9%.
Notably, Bitcoin was trading above $81,000, compared with $59,300 in June — a price difference exceeding 36%.
However, Binance showed a contrasting pattern.
STH loss transfers to Binance reached -7,150 BTC, compared with -11,830 BTC on June 26, representing 39.6% less selling pressure despite the stronger exchange-wide reading.
The sudden shift suggests fear-driven selling intentions among newer market participants, potentially amplified by concerns over government Bitcoin movements.
Yet the government transfer does not necessarily indicate an immediate sale, and exchange deposits do not confirm executed trades.
Historically, aggressive loss-driven selling by short-term participants can coincide with short-term capitulation, potentially exhausting weaker holders and creating conditions for a subsequent price recovery.
Written by Amr Taha

Assuming the bear market ended on July 1, here are the realized losses incurred during each bear market.
Losses are calculated in USD to give a sense of the pain felt in investors' wallets.
I'm surprised to see that the 2022-2023 bear market still holds the record for the heaviest losses. The FTX event clearly contributed to that. In November 2022, losses accelerated by more than $18B over the three weeks counted before the end of the bear market.
During that last cycle, the bear market still recorded $191.1B in realized losses, which is colossal.
The two bear markets that preceded the 2022 one recorded far fewer losses, at $55.6B and $2.5B.
It is on this criterion, capital at a loss, that bear markets will now be recognized. Relying solely on the percentage of supply in profit/loss becomes somewhat less relevant, even if it remains useful for comparing perspectives.
Now that this phase is over, it makes sense to monitor profit-taking on the market more closely in order to identify periods of risk.
Written by Darkfost

Data from Binance indicates a notable decline in funding rates for XRP perpetual futures contracts, with the indicator falling to its lowest level since mid-August. This signals a clear shift in positioning within the derivatives market amid increasing pressure from short positions in recent weeks.
The data shows that the funding rate reached a negative reading of approximately -0.00548%, reflecting a market bias toward short positions over long positions. Negative funding rates typically indicate that traders holding short positions are paying funding fees to those holding long positions, a trend that often reflects heightened bearish sentiment or increased demand for hedging against potential price declines.
This decline follows periods of positive readings, suggesting a shift in trader sentiment and a reduction in the dominance of long positions in the XRP perpetual futures market. Historical data also reveals frequent fluctuations between positive and negative readings, reflecting changing market expectations and varying demand for leveraged positions.
However, negative funding rates do not necessarily indicate that XRP's price will continue to decline. Excessive short positioning can increase the risk of a short squeeze, in which a sudden price increase forces short sellers to close their positions, potentially amplifying upward price movements.
Written by Arab Chain

As Bitcoin undergoes a price correction, it is worth examining current price levels in the context of average drawdowns during previous bull cycles. The Bitcoin Bull Cycle Drawdowns indicator measures how much Bitcoin's price has declined from peaks formed during each bull cycle, allowing us to compare drawdowns across different cycles.
The average drawdowns from the peaks formed during each bull cycle are as follows:
ㆍ2010–2011: -18.41%
ㆍ2011–2013: -21.71%
ㆍ2015–2017: -10.93%
ㆍ2018–2021: -19.39%
ㆍ2022–2025: -7.58%
The overall average drawdown across the five previous bull cycles stands at -14.39%, although significantly deeper corrections have occurred during certain events. However, the most recent cycle experienced relatively milder drawdowns compared to previous cycles.
Bitcoin recently declined approximately 7.61%, from a high of $87,027 on October 5 to a low of $80,404 on October 9. This is comparable to the previous cycle's average drawdown of 7.58%, but remains below the historical overall average of 14.39%. Applying that historical average to the recent high gives a price level of approximately $74,500, which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside.
Given that drawdowns have been relatively smaller in the most recent bull cycle, investors may consider gradually accumulating Bitcoin around $80,000 and increasing their buying exposure more aggressively in the $74,000–$75,000 range.
Written by MAC_D

The crypto market has just entered a short-term corrective phase. Over three days, Total2, which represents the market capitalization of all altcoins, has wiped out more than $110B.
Ethereum, the largest of them by market cap, is down 11%, with its market capitalization falling by more than $38B.
Despite this pullback, some investors appear to keep accumulating ETH.
Over this period, ETH reserves on Binance went from 3.57 million to 3.47 million ETH. On a broader scale, they have just hit their lowest level in six months. In August, they still stood at 3.92 million ETH, a drop of nearly 11.5% since then.
This dynamic comes with a record-high number of withdrawal transactions on Binance: on October 6, more than 320 000 transactions of this type were recorded in a single day.
Despite the price decline, investors are therefore continuing to withdraw their ETH from the platform.
This points to a desire to hold them in self-custody over a longer horizon, and probably also to put them to work while waiting for a better selling opportunity.
Written by Darkfost

XRP price declined from $1.568 on September 25 to $1.422 on October 7. Binance funding rate flipped negative to -0.005 on the same day. Long liquidations reached $9.3M on October 7, the highest in this period.
Open Interest data suggests a 6% contraction from the peak of $554M (September 27) to $511M (October 7); a data gap exists for October 8. Daily network transaction count reached a local minimum of 1.1–1.3M on October 3–5, down 26% from the seven-day average. Binance inflow and outflow both spiked to approximately $11M on October 8, an unusual symmetry.
The week of September 30 to October 7 had no major U.S. macroeconomic releases; Bitcoin remained relatively flat in the same window. The contraction in OI and funding rate flip may create conditions that historically preceded short-term consolidation or divergence.
One candidate explanation, unverified: the October 7 liquidation cascade likely triggered clustered stop-losses below the $1.49 level, leading to OI clearance and reduced leverage interest. The symmetric October 8 flow could represent cross-exchange rebalancing or arbitrage rather than directional net positioning.
“For now, the clearest reading is: XRP experienced short-term liquidity stress; negative funding rates suggest leveraged participant caution, but OI stabilization and network activity recovery remain prerequisites for reversal.”
Written by CryptoOnchain

$ETH’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has risen to approximately 0.73, its highest level within the period shown, while the price has declined to around $2,510.
From a positive perspective, the size of derivatives positions relative to ETH reserves remains elevated, suggesting that the market on Binance has yet to enter a clear contraction based on this metric. Binance continues to be a venue worth monitoring for changes in $ETH positioning and trading sentiment.
If spot buying improves, short positions could face pressure to close, helping support a recovery. However, this metric does not establish whether longs or shorts dominate; elevated leverage also makes stronger volatility in both directions more likely.
Written by Rei Researcher

1) On the monthly timeframe, the RC closed bearish for the first time in December 2025, at 1.12T, and continued this trend until July of this year, when it closed at 1.06T. This represents an approximate 5% decline, while the market price fell by around 28% over the same period.
2) In September, despite the price moving sideways, the RC formed a bullish candle. This indicates that the aggregate cost basis of the network is increasing even without a comparable appreciation in spot price. Since the bearish July close, it has risen by approximately 1.9%.
3) The last time that, after a prolonged bearish period, the RC began to recover was in January 2023, which preceded a major bullish trend that extended through 2025.
4) At the same time, the LTH-SOPR has remained mostly above 1 since mid-August, indicating that Long-Term Holders are spending coins at a profit relative to their cost basis. This upward repricing is one of the factors contributing to the recent increase in the RC.
5) On-chain data downloaded from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

Data indicates that the funding rate for Bitcoin futures on Binance has dropped into negative territory, reaching approximately -0.00215 its lowest level since last January.
This decline reflects a notable shift in the cost of holding open positions in the futures market. Negative funding rates imply that short-position holders are paying fees to long-position holders. This suggests that short positions have become more prevalent than long positions, or that demand for short positions has recently increased.
The indicator shows a clear transition from the positive levels maintained in recent months into negative territory, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price retreat to around the $83,000 mark. The funding rate has also fallen significantly below its 30-day moving average of approximately 0.00458, signaling a marked change in the balance of trader positions within the derivatives market.
From a market perspective, the drop in the funding rate may signal growing caution among traders and increased bets on a price decline. However, negative funding does not necessarily imply a continued downtrend; the accumulation of short positions could increase the likelihood of sudden upward movements if spot demand for Bitcoin rises and short positions begin to close.
Consequently, this shift in the funding rate warrants close monitoring in the coming period, particularly to assess whether it remains in negative territory or begins to recover toward neutral levels.
Written by Arab Chain

As the crypto market experiences a short-term slump, the volume of stablecoin inflows is declining.
Stablecoin inflows, which reached $5B 2 weeks ago, have now dropped to the $3.4B level.
However, stablecoin inflows to Binance remain robust. Two weeks ago, Binance's average daily stablecoin inflow was $1.42B, and last week it was $1.25B.
This week, inflows to Binance have been $1.24B and $1.28B, showing no significant difference from previous volume. Stablecoin inflows are holding steady trend.
On the other hand, Coinbase has seen further declines, dropping from $1.12B 2 weeks ago to $0.71B last week, and to $0.68B and $0.65B this week. OKX has also experienced a significant drop in stablecoin inflows.
Binance is the only exchange demonstrating a solid flow of funds. Amidst the current market stagnation, it continues to see a steady inflow of funds.
Written by CW8900

$BTC is currently showing a downward trend. However, there is no negative data regarding demand.
Total demand remains positive. The spot demand is still in negative territory, but it has moved very close to neutral.
The current trend similar pattern seen in August, when $BTC rose from the $60k range to the $80k range. Although $BTC is showing a slight decline, demand is actually shifting toward a positive trend.
If spot demand also turns positive, a significant rally could occur.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin’s recovery is gaining a signal beneath price: the 200-day average of Adjusted SOPR is beginning to cross above its 365-day average.
aSOPR compares the value of spent outputs with their value when created, excluding outputs younger than one hour. Above 1, spending realizes an aggregate profit; below 1, an aggregate loss.
The crossover means average spending profitability over the last 200 days is overtaking the annual average. It suggests the recent loss regime is easing and realized profitability is recovering.
The historical chart highlights comparable upward crosses in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023. They accompanied recoveries that extended over subsequent months, with several preceding substantial longer-term advances. Yet 2019’s rally later reversed: the pattern supports a recovery thesis without guaranteeing an uninterrupted bull market.
The current setup has an important distinction. The 200-day average is rising from its lows, while the 365-day average is still declining. Both remain just below 1, around 0.998. Relative improvement is therefore emerging before a sustained return to profitability is established on these longer horizons.
For investors, this points to a possible transition away from loss-dominated spending. It does not establish that selling volume is falling or fresh demand is accelerating. Because both averages are slow, the crossover also reflects a recovery already underway.
What to Watch
The next test is whether improving profitability is accompanied by easing seller stress and stronger demand. STH SOPR holding above 1, with pullbacks finding support near breakeven, would suggest recent buyers are maintaining profitable spending conditions.
Declining realized loss volumes during those pullbacks would reinforce the recovery thesis.
Sustained positive Apparent Demand would add evidence of supply absorption, strengthening the case that Bitcoin can withstand renewed profit-taking and extend its recovery.
Written by MorenoDV_

The Whale vs Retail Spread (%), measured using a 7-day moving average, tracks the relative gap between whale and retail activity in XRP exchange outflows.
A declining spread indicates narrowing whale dominance relative to retail participants, rather than necessarily confirming whale selling.
Between September 30 and October 8, 2026, XRP's All CEX Whale vs Retail Spread fell from 64% to 46.7%, a decline of 17.3 percentage points, or 27% in just eight days.
Over the same period, Binance's Whale vs Retail Spread dropped from 68% to 54.9%, a decrease of 13.1 percentage points, or 19.3%.
The comparison reveals a notable divergence: the spread contracted 7.7 percentage points more in relative terms across all exchanges than on Binance.
Despite the decline, Binance's current reading of 54.9% remains 8.2 percentage points above the All CEX reading of 46.7%, indicating that the whale-retail gap remains wider on Binance than across exchanges collectively.
This shift coincides with XRP trading near $1.415, highlighting a rapid change in the relative composition of exchange outflows during a period of price weakness.
The key development is not simply declining whale dominance, but its uneven pace across exchanges, with Binance maintaining a higher spread despite the broader contraction.
Written by Amr Taha

Ethereum whales are showing neither clear profit taking nor heavy accumulation. Investors’ total unrealized profit and loss appear to be roughly balanced. So, on its own, the chart paints a picture of indecision and possible consolidation.
According to the chart, whales are generally not sitting on large, accumulated unrealized gains. Limited selling pressure may reduce the incentive to sell, but that doesn’t guarantee that investors who aren’t in significant profit will hold on to their positions.
The SOPR data suggests that spent coins are changing hands at around breakeven on average. In other words, there is no pattern pointing to sustained profitable selling or an increase in loss making sales.
The recent deposit ratio to Binance may raise the possibility of supply being prepared for sale.
No sustained, strong increase in activity is evident among ETH addresses lately; therefore, there is no clear increase in network usage.
We see whale stablecoin movements occasionally becoming sharper. This could indicate potential buying liquidity.
The available data suggests that market participants are acting cautiously. For whales, the chart currently points more to balance and cautious waiting than to a strong directional signal. Markets need a strong signal for a breakout.
Written by PelinayPA

Bitcoin open interest across all exchanges has fallen from around $29B on September 22 to $25.8B, which is roughly a 12% decline. At the same time BTC has managed to stay above $80K. Most of this drop happened within about a week, and open interest has been moving in the $25–26B range since then.
I see this as a leverage reset rather than a liquidation event. Open interest has come down without a similar drop in price, which is generally a healthier setup. It is also still well below last October’s peak of around $45B. In dollar terms, OI is only about 10% above its August level, while BTC is up more than 25%. So far, this rally has not been driven by a large increase in leverage.
Exchange flows support that view. The 7-day EMA of netflow is negative, with net outflows of around 19K BTC on September 22 and 14K BTC on October 6. When coins leave exchanges, there is less BTC immediately available for selling. That said, exchange outflows can also come from custody movements or exchange-specific activity, so I would not read too much into any single flow figure.
SOPR is currently at 1.006 and has stayed roughly between 1.00 and 1.02 since late August. That tells us holders are still realizing small profits, but we are not seeing the kind of sharp moves that usually come with heavy selling. There have been no meaningful breaks below 1 and no spikes above roughly 1.03.
Overall, I think this is a healthier positioning setup, but I would not take it as proof of new demand yet. What matters next is whether open interest starts rising gradually with price instead of jumping sharply, and whether exchange netflows remain negative.
Written by YavuzAkbay

Data indicates that the monthly trading volume of Bitcoin futures across exchanges rose to a three-month high last September, signaling a strong resurgence in activity in the derivatives market. This increase reflects a notable rise in the volume of traded positions and contracts, as traders continue to utilize futures markets to manage their positions and capitalize on Bitcoin price movements.
Binance led the list of exchanges in terms of Bitcoin futures trading volume, recording a total of approximately $454.4 billion and capturing the largest share of activity during the month. OKX ranked second with a volume of about $190.9 billion, while Bybit took third place with a volume of approximately $146.6 billion.
According to the latest data, total monthly trading volume reached approximately $1.1 trillion, surpassing the levels recorded in the previous two months and indicating a clear uptick in trader activity compared with the recent past.
This distribution highlights the continued dominance of major exchanges in the derivatives market, with the top three platforms accounting for a significant portion of total trading activity. However, the rise in futures volume does not necessarily imply a bullish or bearish market trend, as trading volume measures activity rather than the directional bias of positions.
Consequently, the trading volume reaching a three-month high reflects a strong resurgence in activity and liquidity in the Bitcoin futures market, making open interest trends and funding rates crucial factors in determining whether this activity is driven by an increase in leveraged positions or merely a rise in short-term trading activity.
Written by Arab Chain

Tracking the change in supply in loss versus supply in profit is a useful way to gauge the market's broader trend.
At the bottom of every downtrend cycle so far, the loss ratio and the profit ratio have kissed, and as the market shifted into an uptrend cycle, the two lines moved apart again.
This time is no different.
One difference is that in past bottoms Bitcoin fell below its Realized Price, whereas this time the drawdown ended at a relatively shallow level.
Still, given the overall picture, it is reasonable to view the market as currently in the process of turning into an uptrend cycle.
Written by Crypto Dan

Binance's exchange supply ratio, the share of all BTC held on Binance, fell 1.3% over the 30 days to October 5, its steepest 30-day drop since August 3. On the same day, our Binance brake signal read −0.84, far below its 1.5 trigger, and it has been off since September 8. A simple SOPR rule has held BTC since August 8, and BTC has traded above its 200-day average since August 19.
The Fed's September meeting minutes come out on Wednesday, October 7, and September CPI follows on October 14. Either could quickly change rate expectations. One candidate explanation, unverified: more BTC is being withdrawn from Binance than deposited, possibly into self-custody, leaving fewer coins on the exchange ready to sell.
The rule: hold BTC when SOPR's 7-day average is above its 180-day average, otherwise hold cash. The Binance brake moves the rule to cash only when Binance's supply ratio rises unusually fast over 30 days, which means coins are piling onto the exchange. All settings were fixed using data from before October 2024.
Over the past two years, the brake was active on only 34 days (about 5%), across six pauses. BTC fell during all six. The largest drops were July 27 to August 1, 2025 (−5.8%) and August 13–14, 2025 (−4.8%). Sitting out those days raised the rule's return from +53.1% to +79.2%, cut its max drawdown from −36.5% to −26.5%, and lifted its winning trades from 38% to 53%. Buy-and-hold returned +38.1% with a −53.1% drawdown. Over the past year, the brake turned a small loss (−1.6%) into a small gain (+1.1%), while BTC fell 30.6%.
Six pauses is a small sample, and four of them avoided drops smaller than 2.5%.
For now, the clearest reading is that BTC is leaving Binance rather than piling onto it, and in the backtest that is the setup in which the SOPR rule stayed invested.
Written by CryptoOnchain