CryptoQuant Quicktake

What Is NUPL?
NUPL summarizes the unrealized profit and loss of every investor in the market into a single score. Above zero means the market is broadly in profit; below zero means it's underwater. High NUPL points to excessive optimism, while low NUPL signals fear and capitulation. I don't read this metric in isolation — I read it alongside its own 365-day moving average (SMA365). Because the real signal lies in whether NUPL crosses above or below that average.
Current Picture
Bitcoin has rallied roughly 26% over the last 4 days, pushing NUPL from 0.16 to 0.32. With this move, the metric has generated a trend reversal signal. NUPL SMA365 currently sits at 0.31, meaning NUPL has crossed above its long-term average for the first time since October 10, 2025.
If price can sustain above this level, the current upward momentum can continue.
Written by burakkesmeci

Observation. ETH closed at $2,517 on August 21 after three sessions lifted price roughly 31% from the $1,870–$1,916 band it had held for weeks. The move did not originate in spot demand. Aggregate short liquidations averaged $131.0M over the last seven days, up about 1,514% week-over-week and 437% against the 90-day baseline, while long liquidations remain 40% below their quarterly average.
Context. Network economics reactivated alongside the move rather than ahead of it. Base fees rose 189% WoW, fees burnt in USD 251%, and total network fees 138% — reversing the compression that defined the prior two months. On derivatives, Binance funding rates now average 0.01, up 25% WoW and 95% versus the quarterly baseline, the first sustained positive tilt in months. Taker buy volume climbed 154% to $5.49B against $5.17B on the sell side.
Comparison. One metric moves the other way. Average deposit size (7-day mean inflow) fell to 16.1 ETH, down 40% against the 90-day baseline, even as total inflow rose 101% WoW — supply arriving in more, smaller transfers rather than large blocks. Netflow itself is unstable (+51.2k on August 19, -49.7k on August 20), which suggests venue rebalancing rather than one-directional pressure. The Coinbase Premium sits at -0.02, its least negative reading in weeks but not yet a demand confirmation.
What this may set up. A liquidation-driven repricing with reactivated fee demand, positive Binance funding, and fragmented deposit flow describes a market where positioning led price and spot participation is only beginning to respond. Historically, this configuration has preceded either continuation once premiums turn positive, or a drift back toward the prior range if funding cools before spot follows through.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s market structure has changed dramatically in just a few days.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on Aug. 21 that rallies like this during bear markets often signal that the bottom is in, adding that the “bear phase is pretty much done.”
The data increasingly supports his view—but it is too early to call the bottom confirmed.
BTC broke out of a six-week $62K–$67K range and surged to around $79.4K. More importantly, the move was accompanied by improving spot and perpetual demand, strong U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and the recovery of key on-chain cost-basis levels.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days, suggesting that the rally was not driven solely by derivatives.
On-chain data also improved sharply. Glassnode’s Aug. 19 levels placed the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $68.5K and the True Market Mean near $75.8K. BTC subsequently reclaimed both.
However, caution is still warranted. The breakout triggered roughly $3 billion in short liquidations, meaning a major short squeeze amplified the move. Bitcoin also rallied from around $60K to $82K earlier this year before that move ultimately proved to be a bear-market bounce.
The key test is therefore what happens next.
If BTC can hold around $75K–$76K, break $80K and then clear the previous $82K–$83K resistance zone while ETF and spot demand remain strong, the case for a genuine regime change becomes much stronger.
The important point is not simply that Ki Young Ju turned bullish. It is that the underlying data changed enough for a previously bearish analyst to change his view.
For now, the most accurate conclusion is: the probability that the ~$60K area marked the cycle bottom has risen significantly—but confirmation still requires sustained spot demand and price strength above key cost-basis levels.
Written by XWIN Japan

As Bitcoin gains momentum toward the $79,000 level, a predominantly sell-heavy picture remains visible on the Binance spot side.
Even though the price surged by squeezing short positions in the derivatives market, there is a noticeable absence of buying pressure in the Binance spot market. On the contrary, Binance spot market participants have chosen to stay on the sell side rather than joining the upward movement.
This divergence brings a critical scenario to light: rather than an organic trend backed by spot demand, this move might merely be a sharp rally triggered by liquidating short positions (a short squeeze). Once the short squeeze mechanism exhausts itself, if strong spot buying fails to step in, the price is highly likely to retrace back toward its starting level. Indeed, the spot delta dropping to -$11.6 billion clearly confirms this structure. Typically, during periods when price tests critical threshold levels, we observe the delta deepening significantly in negative territory.
From a market dynamics perspective, the forces driving an instrument up or down follow specific fundamental principles. For us to conclude that Bitcoin has officially exited the bear market and that the rally is healthy, we need to observe clear, net spot buying. Rallies occurring without spot support are bound to remain temporary bear market reactions and short squeeze moves.
While this structure opens the door to high volatility and exciting price action in the coming months, the risk of a sharp reversal remains notably high once the rally's fuel—derivatives liquidations—runs out.
Written by BorisD

Tether recorded $5 billion in gross USDT mint-and-burn activity on August 21, minting $3 billion USDT on Tron while burning $2 billion on Ethereum.
The Tron mint was three times the size of each of the previous two mints on the network, with Tether minting $1 billion on August 10 and another $1 billion on July 9.
The activity coincided with a major USDT movement into Binance. The exchange recorded approximately $928 million in net USDT inflows through Tron on August 21, with Bitcoin trading near $76,600.
The previous comparable Binance inflow occurred on August 10, when Tron-based USDT net inflows reached roughly $897 million while Bitcoin traded near $64,600.
The latest inflow was therefore around 3.5% larger, while Bitcoin was approximately 18.6% higher.
Ethereum wallet activity also accelerated sharply.
Wallets recording daily USDT balance changes above $100 million reached $5.14 billion, while the $10M–$100M group recorded $1.24 billion — both marking their highest activity since July 7, when Bitcoin traded above $63,000.
On July 7, the two groups recorded $11.5 billion and $788 million, respectively.
Taken together, the data shows a notable concentration of USDT activity across Tether Treasury operations, Tron-based exchange flows, and large Ethereum wallets as Bitcoin trades near its latest highs.
The simultaneous movements do not prove that the newly minted USDT was directly transferred to Binance or that the Ethereum burn was directly reissued on Tron.
The key signal is the scale and synchronization of activity
Written by Amr Taha

Yesterday, $BTC managed to close the day at ~$78 300, posting a gain of over 7% on the session alone.
Over the past 3 days, Bitcoin has posted a gain of over 23%, with $275B in market cap added over the period.
This rally is logically accompanied by profit-taking, reflected in rising BTC inflows to exchanges. Around 53000 BTC were sent to platforms, including 17 800 BTC to Binance alone, the exchange with the deepest liquidity.
What's interesting to note is that the entirety of these inflows to Binance came from short term holders, and more specifically from investors who had accumulated their BTC less than a day earlier. Rather than holding their positions, these very short term players sent around 17 800 BTC to Binance.
These are therefore purely speculative, non structural movements: cohorts classified as Long Term Holders (6m+) sent no BTC to the platform whatsoever.
Even though this is pure speculation, it remains the largest inflow into Binance since February 2026, a month marked by a genuine capitulation episode from these same investors.
It's precisely these brief, spontaneous movements that are fueling the volatility now making a strong comeback across the crypto market.
Written by Darkfost

The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands chart provides additional context for the recent breakout by showing the average acquisition prices of different groups of Bitcoin holders.
The most relevant development is that BTC's surge toward $79K has pushed spot price above the realized-price levels of the shorter-term 1-3 month and 3-6 month cohorts, which sit around $64K and $74K, respectively. This means these groups have broadly moved back into unrealized profit, reducing some of the pressure associated with underwater recent buyers.
At the same time, several older cohorts remain positioned considerably above the current market price. The 18-month to 2-year realized price is around $87K, while the 6-12 month and 12-18 month bands are much higher near $95K and $105K. These levels could become increasingly relevant if the recovery continues, as BTC would begin approaching the cost bases of holders who remain underwater.
Therefore, the on-chain structure has improved alongside the technical breakout, but the recovery is not yet complete. Holding above the roughly $74K cost basis of the 3-6 month cohort would be particularly constructive, while losing it could indicate that the latest surge has moved ahead of underlying holder support.
Written by ShayanMarkets

A bullish signal has appeared in the $BTC Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator.
The rally is resuming after ending the correction phase that has continued since July.
The bullish signal from the IFP indicator signifies that the inflow of $BTC into derivatives exchanges is increasing.
This indicates that upward pressure from derivatives exchanges is rising, meaning that leveraged investment is increasing in earnest again.
Upward pressure driven by leverage is starting again.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin sparked a massive liquidation storm across futures markets with its relentless rally in August 2026. According to Binance cumulative liquidation data, the market just witnessed its largest short position wipeout since October 2025.
Back in October 2025, a historic short squeeze pushed Bitcoin above $120,000. Ever since that move, long liquidations had been dominating the charts. However, August 2026's aggressive upward surge left short sellers with virtually no time to escape.
How the Market Dynamics Shifted
Long liquidations, which held the lead for months, have now fallen into second place following this violent rally:
- Cumulative Short Liquidations: Climbed to $7.739 Billion, taking the lead.
- Cumulative Long Liquidations: Trailed behind at $7.582 Billion.
This flippening highlights the sheer velocity of the price jump and demonstrates how aggressively trapped short positions were forced out of the game.
What Is the Market's Next Move?
With short liquidity cleared out, a critical question emerges for derivatives traders: Will the tide turn toward liquidating overly leveraged long positions next?
Given market makers' tendency to seek out dense liquidity pockets, exercising caution with late-chasing long positions becomes essential as FOMO peaks.
Written by BorisD

• Heikin-Ashi Japanese candlesticks on the weekly timeframe, Apparent Demand Growth, Fourth Halving AVWAP (orange line), latest ATH AVWAP (white line), and SMA50 (blue line).
• Dan Valcu, CFTe: "Any Heikin-Ashi chart filters out price noise; as a result, trends, consolidations, and reversals are more visible and clearer to the naked eye."
Written by Facundo Fama

For the first time since the October 2025 ATH, both 30-day spot and futures demand growth have flipped positive. The signal is still modest, but if it persists for roughly a month, it could mark the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull cycle.
Spot demand has recovered sharply from around -206K BTC on July 23 toward and above zero. Historically, a recovery through this level has produced an ~18% median return over 60 days, with a 78% win rate.
Whales have also returned to accumulation, adding roughly 43K BTC (~$2.75B) over the past 60 days after months of net selling.
ETF flows have strengthened, with August MTD inflows around $2.1B and several days recording $500–600M+ in net inflows. Meanwhile, expanding OI and the strongest short squeeze since November 2024 helped accelerate BTC from the $63K–$65K range toward $70K and later $75K–$77K.
The Bull Score has also moved back into bullish territory (≥60), while a record-sized profit-side UTXO movement suggests trapped holders are finally taking profits.
The key difference from previous failed bounces: this move is showing genuine spot participation, not just leverage.
Structure is constructive, but confirmation still requires sustained demand above zero and stronger volume follow-through.
The dual-demand signal is the one to watch.
Written by theophiluspep

Over the span of three days, Bitcoin posted a performance of more than 20%, driven by a sudden return of demand, both in spot and futures.
During this period, BTC open interest jumped by $2.5B, including $1.5B on Binance alone, which now accounts for 37% of total market open interest.
On the platform, the return of investors to BTC futures accelerated sharply within just a few hours.
The 7-hour moving average (7 hma) of net taker volume on Binance reached its highest level since 2024.
As BTC managed to break through the $65,000 resistance, more than $246 million in net buying pressure flooded into Binance within a matter of hours, the strongest and most spontaneous surge of buying pressure on Binance futures seen in two years.
Between the return of spot demand, buying pressure on futures, and the cascade of short liquidations caught wrong-footed, this combination quickly pushed Bitcoin higher.
Written by Darkfost

XRP rallied nearly 40% in roughly two days, rising from around $0.997 on August 19 to above $1.39 on August 21, while Binance open interest climbed to a new high of approximately $263 million.
The expansion in derivatives exposure has been building for several weeks.
Binance XRP open interest increased from roughly $181 million on August 3 to $263 million on August 21, a gain of about 45%.
However, taker-flow data shows a notable divergence beneath the price rally.
Binance XRP Perpetual CVD continued falling to approximately -$514.4 million, indicating that aggressive sell-side executions remained dominant even as both XRP’s price and open interest moved sharply higher.
Rising open interest alongside declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new short-side positioning being added into the rally.
Spot activity showed a different trend.
All-CEX Estimated Spot CVD improved from roughly -$250 million to -$194.8 million, a positive shift of about $55 million.
While spot CVD remains negative, the recovery contrasts with the continued deterioration in Binance perpetual CVD.
The divergence suggests that a growing portion of derivatives traders is still leaning against the rally even as price momentum remains strong, leaving XRP’s futures market increasingly sensitive to further price moves in either direction.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin has broken above $77,000, a sharp move from the $64,000 level just days earlier. Yet on the spot Volume Bubble Map, the color still reads green, or "Cooling." Price is surging, but volume growth isn't keeping pace.
This indicator colors bubbles by the rate of change in trading volume: a rapid increase turns red (Heating, then Overheating), while a decline shows green (Cooling). Every major cycle top on this chart, late 2017, mid-2021, and the ~$100K high in late 2025, was marked by dense red clusters. This time is different. Even as price pushes to $77,000, the bubbles have stayed green.
Historically, red clusters coincided with late entrants piling in and volume exploding, the classic signature of peak FOMO. Volume staying cool now suggests most participants haven't committed with conviction yet. The market is still hesitant, and real buying pressure may still be sitting on the sidelines. If that reading holds, any pullback from here is more likely to be shallow than a hard reversal, with room for one or two more legs up before a real top forms. Without an overheating signal, this isn't the top yet.
The counter-case deserves airtime too. Volume failing to confirm could mean this rally leans more on derivatives short covering and macro liquidity, Treasury buybacks, ETF inflows, than broad spot demand. If volume never shows up, the move risks stalling without confirmation and slipping back into range. Cooling phases haven't always preceded rallies; 2018 and 2023 both saw extended cooling periods that led into prolonged chop instead.
Still, the absence of an overheating signal tilts the balance toward more room to run. Until the bubbles turn red, this bounce isn't finished.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

This is the first time the Bitcoin Bull Score has moved back into bullish territory (≥60) since October 2025.
Even in May, when BTC broke above $82,000, the indicator failed to move back into bull territory.
This metric relies on several non-outdated indicators to confirm the regime the market currently finds itself in.
Currently, 6 out of 10 indicators have turned green again, including demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and the trader realized price.
During bull phases, the Bull Score Index stays above this level of 60 most of the time before dropping into bear territory.
If this indicator manages to hold at this level and keeps climbing, a new bull cycle could well be starting.
Written by Darkfost

The XRP derivatives market on Binance is experiencing a significant surge in funding rates, reaching 0.0101, its highest level since October 2025, according to available data, while XRP is trading near $1.30.
This surge in funding rates to their highest level since October 2025 coincides with a growing appetite among traders for long positions, indicating a clear shift in sentiment in the derivatives market. The fact that the current funding rate is significantly above its 30-day moving average reflects stronger demand for long positions compared with the recent average.
However, this surge in funding rates is not necessarily a purely bullish signal. The continued accumulation of long positions and the rising cost of funding could make the market more sensitive to any sudden decline in XRP’s price, potentially leading to liquidations of leveraged positions.
Therefore, the movement of the funding rate in the coming period will be a crucial indicator for assessing the sustainability of the current momentum. If the rate remains elevated alongside price stability or continued upward movement, this could reflect sustained demand. Conversely, a decline in the funding rate could indicate waning speculative momentum in the XRP derivatives market.
Written by Arab Chain

As observed in the image, it appears that the period of significant large scale market participation, often associated with big whale orders, might have come to a pause, as suggested by the recent shift from green to grey markers. Interestingly, despite this potential decline in exceptionally large average order sizes across major trading platforms, the asset price seems to be exhibiting a gradual upward momentum. This divergence could imply that the current price action is being supported by a broader base of steady accumulation rather than highly concentrated oversized trades, though continued monitoring would be prudent to better understand these evolving market dynamics.
Written by nino

BlackRock’s IBIT recorded approximately $240 million in Bitcoin holdings netflow on August 19, up from $147 million on August 18, representing a 63% daily increase.
The move followed readings of $174 million on August 17 and $147 million on August 18, bringing IBIT’s three-day holdings netflow to approximately $561 million.
Fidelity’s FBTC showed a similar rebound.
Its holdings netflow increased from $25 million on August 18 to $52 million on August 19, a 108% day-over-day increase, after recording $107 million on August 17.
Combined, IBIT and FBTC holdings netflow rose from $172 million on August 18 to $292 million on August 19, an increase of nearly 70% in one day.
21Shares’ ARKB added another $71 million in holdings netflow on August 19.
At the same time, the dollar value of assets managed by the largest Bitcoin ETFs increased sharply as Bitcoin rallied above $69,000.
IBIT’s assets under management increased by approximately $3.02 billion during the day, while FBTC’s rose by around $690 million.
The AUM increase should be viewed separately from fund flows, as rising Bitcoin prices automatically increase the dollar value of BTC already held by the ETFs. The figures therefore reflect both changes in underlying holdings and the repricing of existing Bitcoin assets.
Broader U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF data also showed stronger activity on August 19, with total daily net inflows reaching approximately $517 million, the highest level since May 4.
Written by Amr Taha

• This is the first time since early June that Bitcoin's price has closed above the US ETF Realized Price.
• Chart by AxelAdlerJr.
Written by Facundo Fama

Bitcoin's recent rebound is a signal that has emerged for the first time in this Bear cycle.
The MVRV indicator, which measures Bitcoin's present valuation, is showing a vertical rise.
This signal is the very movement that appeared as the bottom range came to an end in every past downcycle.
suggesting that the possibility of the market turning from decline to ascent is growing.
Written by Crypto Dan