The Bitcoin General

Even if this scenario only has a 20–30% probability, I want to break it down in detail so the setup is clear.
Bitcoin is currently using the 3-day candle close as the key timeframe.
If price moves up for a retest, I’ve identified one level where multiple resistance lines converge.
Here’s the level below. 👇
Maximum target: $67.8K
Given the strong resistance, I’m also allowing for a slight undershoot — around $67.4K, which aligns with the channel resistance.
Even when applied to other channels, the same key level consistently shows up.
It would sweep liquidity at the two areas where stop-loss orders are currently most concentrated.FVG retest.
This area has all the characteristics of a clear retest zone.
On the macro structure, I see it as a retest.
On the lower-timeframe structure, it could play out as a blow-off top.
By “blow-off top,” I mean price makes one final push higher before the drop, sweeping liquidity and liquidating shorts along the way.
As you know, a retest-type move like this typically has only around a 30–40% probability in my view.
The idea is simple.
Before a larger move down, price makes one last push higher — then rolls over.
Looking at the bigger picture, we still haven’t really seen that kind of final blow-off move yet.
So far, Bitcoin has simply continued printing lower highs.
As I mentioned in the briefing, I cannot justify going long based on this scenario alone.
We’re only talking about roughly a 30% probability.
And even if BTC does move higher, it could reverse before reaching the full target.
In that case, going long wouldn’t necessarily give you a clean take-profit opportunity anyway.
But there’s a big difference between getting blindsided by a 5%+ green candle...
and already knowing:
“Okay, this scenario is possible. I’m prepared for it.”
My base view is that BTC hits that upper area and then comes back down.
I already have a strategy mapped out for what I’ll do afterward.
If that move happens today, then by the time BTC reaches the upper zone, my position size should be somewhat smaller than it is now.
Since I’m positioned with a short bias, that’s simply part of the risk management.
Then, if BTC drops back down to the current $64.0K area, my capital should ideally be higher than it is right now.
That’s the kind of position management I’m building the strategy around.
If BTC pushes above $65.2K, this is still a manageable setup:
Take a small partial stop-loss or add a light hedge, then potentially add a little back to the position near the upper target.
If your position already feels way too heavy right now, then just take some partial profit here and reduce the exposure.
Base-case plays out → make money.
Alternative scenario plays out → lose less.
That’s realistic trading.
Base-case plays out → make money.
Alternative scenario plays out → also make money.
That’s not something you can realistically expect every time.
TL;DR
Trim a little around $64.9KTrim another small portion if BTC moves above $65.2K
The idea is to reduce exposure so you don’t take the full hit if a 4% green candle suddenly shows up.
At the same time, price could simply sweep liquidity and immediately come back down.
So I’m not abandoning the short entirely or flipping long.
I’d rather keep the position structured in a way that still gives me room to add back if the setup develops.
If BTC eventually comes back down, the ideal outcome is simple:
Either you made a little money, or you’re slightly annoyed that you reduced too much.
That’s a perfectly fine result.
That’s what proper risk management looks like.