According to Polymarket data, the probability of “Strategy being removed from the MSCI index in April” has climbed to 72%, marking its highest level since the topic surfaced four months ago.
Earlier, Michael Saylor confirmed that Strategy is already in discussion with MSCI as the index provider prepares its final decision, scheduled for January 15.
Last month, JPMorgan warned that if other index providers mirror MSCI’s removal, the cumulative impact could trigger outflows of up to $8.8 billion, depending on how passive funds adjust exposure.
This isn’t just a prediction-market spike — it reflects growing institutional concern around index eligibility and liquidity risk tied to the asset.
For now, all eyes are on January, where a single ruling could reshape how major funds allocate around this name.