#midterms
midterms
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Crypto's $176M midterm bet: the real trade is the Clarity Act, not the next candle
A Reuters review out this week puts crypto's spending on the US midterms at roughly $176 million across 100+ races. Fairshake and its affiliate PACs account for about $150.8M through Oct 20, with other crypto groups adding around $25M. Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries and special elections are on the Nov 3 ballot.
My take: this isn't really about pumping $BTC next week. The stated goal is the Clarity Act, which would put most crypto oversight under the CFTC. That bill stalled this session, and as Reuters notes, without legislation, agency-level rules written under this administration can be reversed by the next one. The money is buying durability, not a price target.
What I'm watching:
- Election results on Nov 3 and which chamber flips, if any
- Whether Clarity gets a real path in the next session
- The Fed decision on Oct 28 as the nearer-term driver
Meanwhile $BTC sits around $80.7K, up about 1% on the day. Policy is a slow catalyst; macro and flows still set the short-term tape.
#Bitcoin #CryptoRegulation #ClarityAct #Midterms
Not financial advice.
Crypto's $176M midterm bet: the real trade is the Clarity Act, not the next candle
A Reuters review out this week puts crypto's spending on the US midterms at roughly $176 million across 100+ races. Fairshake and its affiliate PACs account for about $150.8M through Oct 20, with other crypto groups adding around $25M. Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries and special elections are on the Nov 3 ballot.
My take: this isn't really about pumping $BTC next week. The stated goal is the Clarity Act, which would put most crypto oversight under the CFTC. That bill stalled this session, and as Reuters notes, without legislation, agency-level rules written under this administration can be reversed by the next one. The money is buying durability, not a price target.
What I'm watching:
- Election results on Nov 3 and which chamber flips, if any
- Whether Clarity gets a real path in the next session
- The Fed decision on Oct 28 as the nearer-term driver
Meanwhile $BTC sits around $80.7K, up about 1% on the day. Policy is a slow catalyst; macro and flows still set the short-term tape.
#Bitcoin #CryptoRegulation #ClarityAct #Midterms
Not financial advice.
A Reuters review out this week puts crypto's spending on the US midterms at roughly $176 million across 100+ races. Fairshake and its affiliate PACs account for about $150.8M through Oct 20, with other crypto groups adding around $25M. Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries and special elections are on the Nov 3 ballot.
My take: this isn't really about pumping $BTC next week. The stated goal is the Clarity Act, which would put most crypto oversight under the CFTC. That bill stalled this session, and as Reuters notes, without legislation, agency-level rules written under this administration can be reversed by the next one. The money is buying durability, not a price target.
What I'm watching:
- Election results on Nov 3 and which chamber flips, if any
- Whether Clarity gets a real path in the next session
- The Fed decision on Oct 28 as the nearer-term driver
Meanwhile $BTC sits around $80.7K, up about 1% on the day. Policy is a slow catalyst; macro and flows still set the short-term tape.
#Bitcoin #CryptoRegulation #ClarityAct #Midterms
Not financial advice.
45
The crypto industry has now spent about $176M across more than 100 US midterm races, according to a Reuters review published Oct 27. About $150.8M of that came from the Fairshake super PAC and its affiliates through Oct 20. Other crypto groups added roughly $25M.
The biggest single target is the Ohio Senate race. Crypto money there is past $68M, per AdImpact, most of it aimed at Sherrod Brown, the former Senate Banking chair the same network spent heavily to beat in 2024.
The part worth noticing: the ads barely mention crypto. They lean on taxes and immigration, and most run under affiliate names like "Defend American Jobs" and "Protect Progress". Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries won.
For the market, this is about the next few years of rules, not next week's price. A friendly Congress makes bills like the CLARITY Act easier to pass. If Brown wins anyway, the industry spent big and still gets one of its loudest critics back in the Senate.
Election day is Nov 3.
$BTC
#CryptoPolicy #Midterms
NFA. DYOR.
The crypto industry has now spent about $176M across more than 100 US midterm races, according to a Reuters review published Oct 27. About $150.8M of that came from the Fairshake super PAC and its affiliates through Oct 20. Other crypto groups added roughly $25M.
The biggest single target is the Ohio Senate race. Crypto money there is past $68M, per AdImpact, most of it aimed at Sherrod Brown, the former Senate Banking chair the same network spent heavily to beat in 2024.
The part worth noticing: the ads barely mention crypto. They lean on taxes and immigration, and most run under affiliate names like "Defend American Jobs" and "Protect Progress". Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries won.
For the market, this is about the next few years of rules, not next week's price. A friendly Congress makes bills like the CLARITY Act easier to pass. If Brown wins anyway, the industry spent big and still gets one of its loudest critics back in the Senate.
Election day is Nov 3.
$BTC
#CryptoPolicy #Midterms
NFA. DYOR.
The biggest single target is the Ohio Senate race. Crypto money there is past $68M, per AdImpact, most of it aimed at Sherrod Brown, the former Senate Banking chair the same network spent heavily to beat in 2024.
The part worth noticing: the ads barely mention crypto. They lean on taxes and immigration, and most run under affiliate names like "Defend American Jobs" and "Protect Progress". Fairshake says 53 of the 58 candidates it backed in primaries won.
For the market, this is about the next few years of rules, not next week's price. A friendly Congress makes bills like the CLARITY Act easier to pass. If Brown wins anyway, the industry spent big and still gets one of its loudest critics back in the Senate.
Election day is Nov 3.
$BTC
#CryptoPolicy #Midterms
NFA. DYOR.
101
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💰 U.S. midterms are just around the corner, and BTC is fighting to hold $80K.
History has seen BTC recover after previous midterms, but this time, ETF flows, Fed policy, and crypto regulation could shape the next move.
Hold $80K–$82K, and a push toward $85K–$87.5K could be in play.
Chart: Active Addresses vs Price (2010-2026)
Red boxes = Year after Midterm Elections
What's your bias? Bullish if $80K holds?
#BTC #CryptoQuant #Midterms #BinanceSquareFamily #BinanceSquareTalks
$BTC $BNB $AAPLB
💰 U.S. midterms are just around the corner, and BTC is fighting to hold $80K.
History has seen BTC recover after previous midterms, but this time, ETF flows, Fed policy, and crypto regulation could shape the next move.
Hold $80K–$82K, and a push toward $85K–$87.5K could be in play.
Chart: Active Addresses vs Price (2010-2026)
Red boxes = Year after Midterm Elections
What's your bias? Bullish if $80K holds?
#BTC #CryptoQuant #Midterms #BinanceSquareFamily #BinanceSquareTalks
$BTC $BNB $AAPLB
History has seen BTC recover after previous midterms, but this time, ETF flows, Fed policy, and crypto regulation could shape the next move.
Hold $80K–$82K, and a push toward $85K–$87.5K could be in play.
Chart: Active Addresses vs Price (2010-2026)
Red boxes = Year after Midterm Elections
What's your bias? Bullish if $80K holds?
#BTC #CryptoQuant #Midterms #BinanceSquareFamily #BinanceSquareTalks
$BTC $BNB $AAPLB
1
56
Everyone thinks midterm years are a free setup for $btc, but actually the tape has punished people who assumed q4 would just work.
you know the pain. you buy because you're scared of missing the move, it keeps dipping, and then you dump the bag right before the part that historically paid. getting rugged by your own timing still counts.
the case is pretty clean if you actually look at it. in 2014, 2018, and 2022, q4 closed red every time. one year after election day, bitcoin was higher in all three. pain first, reward after. the 2026 midterms are only 18 days away, so this isn't abstract cycle trivia anymore. ngl if the plan is just sitting in $btc and a side bag of $eth hoping the calendar bails you out before year end, you're ignoring the only thing these midterm years have actually repeated.
where do you think this goes from here?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Midterms
Everyone thinks midterm years are a free setup for $btc, but actually the tape has punished people who assumed q4 would just work.
you know the pain. you buy because you're scared of missing the move, it keeps dipping, and then you dump the bag right before the part that historically paid. getting rugged by your own timing still counts.
the case is pretty clean if you actually look at it. in 2014, 2018, and 2022, q4 closed red every time. one year after election day, bitcoin was higher in all three. pain first, reward after. the 2026 midterms are only 18 days away, so this isn't abstract cycle trivia anymore. ngl if the plan is just sitting in $btc and a side bag of $eth hoping the calendar bails you out before year end, you're ignoring the only thing these midterm years have actually repeated.
where do you think this goes from here?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Midterms
you know the pain. you buy because you're scared of missing the move, it keeps dipping, and then you dump the bag right before the part that historically paid. getting rugged by your own timing still counts.
the case is pretty clean if you actually look at it. in 2014, 2018, and 2022, q4 closed red every time. one year after election day, bitcoin was higher in all three. pain first, reward after. the 2026 midterms are only 18 days away, so this isn't abstract cycle trivia anymore. ngl if the plan is just sitting in $btc and a side bag of $eth hoping the calendar bails you out before year end, you're ignoring the only thing these midterm years have actually repeated.
where do you think this goes from here?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Midterms
29
🚨 ELON MUSK IS GOING ALL-IN ON THE FIGHT FOR CONGRESS.
After spending $290 MILLION to help elect Trump in 2024, Musk is now reportedly spending $369 MILLION to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
Let that sink in.
Nearly $660 million tied to one political agenda.
Why does this matter?
Because control of Congress determines which policies advance, which get blocked, and how much power the president can exercise.
If Republicans maintain their majority, Trump could have an easier path to push his agenda through Congress.
And when one billionaire can pour hundreds of millions into elections, it raises a bigger question:
How much influence should extreme wealth have over American democracy?
Elections should be decided by voters not dominated by billionaires.
The stakes go beyond Musk or Trump. They’re about accountability, representation, and the balance of power in Washington.
VOTE NO ON MUSK. YES FOR DEMOCRACY. 🇺🇸
#ElonMusk #Trump #Democracy #USPolitics #Midterms
🚨 ELON MUSK IS GOING ALL-IN ON THE FIGHT FOR CONGRESS.
After spending $290 MILLION to help elect Trump in 2024, Musk is now reportedly spending $369 MILLION to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
Let that sink in.
Nearly $660 million tied to one political agenda.
Why does this matter?
Because control of Congress determines which policies advance, which get blocked, and how much power the president can exercise.
If Republicans maintain their majority, Trump could have an easier path to push his agenda through Congress.
And when one billionaire can pour hundreds of millions into elections, it raises a bigger question:
How much influence should extreme wealth have over American democracy?
Elections should be decided by voters not dominated by billionaires.
The stakes go beyond Musk or Trump. They’re about accountability, representation, and the balance of power in Washington.
VOTE NO ON MUSK. YES FOR DEMOCRACY. 🇺🇸
#ElonMusk #Trump #Democracy #USPolitics #Midterms
After spending $290 MILLION to help elect Trump in 2024, Musk is now reportedly spending $369 MILLION to keep Republicans in control of Congress.
Let that sink in.
Nearly $660 million tied to one political agenda.
Why does this matter?
Because control of Congress determines which policies advance, which get blocked, and how much power the president can exercise.
If Republicans maintain their majority, Trump could have an easier path to push his agenda through Congress.
And when one billionaire can pour hundreds of millions into elections, it raises a bigger question:
How much influence should extreme wealth have over American democracy?
Elections should be decided by voters not dominated by billionaires.
The stakes go beyond Musk or Trump. They’re about accountability, representation, and the balance of power in Washington.
VOTE NO ON MUSK. YES FOR DEMOCRACY. 🇺🇸
#ElonMusk #Trump #Democracy #USPolitics #Midterms
1
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တက်ရိပ်ရှိသည်
Trump Approval Rating Falls To 34% Three Weeks Before Midterms#BinanceNews #USPolitics #TRUMP #Midterms [BITCOIN BTC/USDT PERP TRADING](https://www.binance.com/es-LA/trade/BTC_USDT?contentId=375272435233328&type=spot)
🚨 #BinanceNews | The US political landscape is becoming tense ahead of the elections.
The latest update confirms that key approval levels have dropped significantly just three weeks before the vote. This type of uncertainty typically injects volatility into both traditional markets and highly speculative assets within the crypto ecosystem.
Historically, events of this magnitude generate significant movements in the trading volume of major cryptocurrencies and $BTCstrongly impact the price of community finance and politically charged tokens. Keep an eye on the trading charts!
Trump Approval Rating Falls To 34% Three Weeks Before Midterms#BinanceNews #USPolitics #TRUMP #Midterms BITCOIN BTC/USDT PERP TRADING
🚨 #BinanceNews | The US political landscape is becoming tense ahead of the elections.
The latest update confirms that key approval levels have dropped significantly just three weeks before the vote. This type of uncertainty typically injects volatility into both traditional markets and highly speculative assets within the crypto ecosystem.
Historically, events of this magnitude generate significant movements in the trading volume of major cryptocurrencies and $BTCstrongly impact the price of community finance and politically charged tokens. Keep an eye on the trading charts!
🚨 #BinanceNews | The US political landscape is becoming tense ahead of the elections.
The latest update confirms that key approval levels have dropped significantly just three weeks before the vote. This type of uncertainty typically injects volatility into both traditional markets and highly speculative assets within the crypto ecosystem.
Historically, events of this magnitude generate significant movements in the trading volume of major cryptocurrencies and $BTCstrongly impact the price of community finance and politically charged tokens. Keep an eye on the trading charts!
ကိုးကားထားသော အကြောင်းအရာကို ဖယ်ရှားလိုက်ပါပြီ
36
Have you noticed Bitcoin's undefeated streak after every US midterm election?
Most crypto traders panic around political events. They either sit out or sell too early and watch the subsequent rally from the sidelines.
Look at the actual results. $BTC gained 24.5% in the 12 months after the 2014 midterms, 44.9% after 2018, and 92.3% after 2022. That is a three-for-three record across every available cycle. This real-world case study shows how reduced uncertainty after elections often lifts risk assets. Once $BTC starts moving, $ETH and $SOL typically follow with even stronger percentage gains as liquidity returns.
Where do you think this goes from here?
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #Midterms
Have you noticed Bitcoin's undefeated streak after every US midterm election?
Most crypto traders panic around political events. They either sit out or sell too early and watch the subsequent rally from the sidelines.
Look at the actual results. $BTC gained 24.5% in the 12 months after the 2014 midterms, 44.9% after 2018, and 92.3% after 2022. That is a three-for-three record across every available cycle. This real-world case study shows how reduced uncertainty after elections often lifts risk assets. Once $BTC starts moving, $ETH and $SOL typically follow with even stronger percentage gains as liquidity returns.
Where do you think this goes from here?
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #Midterms
Most crypto traders panic around political events. They either sit out or sell too early and watch the subsequent rally from the sidelines.
Look at the actual results. $BTC gained 24.5% in the 12 months after the 2014 midterms, 44.9% after 2018, and 92.3% after 2022. That is a three-for-three record across every available cycle. This real-world case study shows how reduced uncertainty after elections often lifts risk assets. Once $BTC starts moving, $ETH and $SOL typically follow with even stronger percentage gains as liquidity returns.
Where do you think this goes from here?
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #Midterms
89
Bitcoin has posted 120% and 35% gains in the 12 months after the last two US midterm elections, the exact opposite of the chaos most traders price in.
The real pain is freezing up on election FUD and selling $BTC near the lows, only to watch the recovery start without you. That hesitation after 2018 and 2022 locked people out of the best entries of those entire cycles.
I traded both of them. After the 2018 midterms $BTC was already sliding hard and printed $3,200 by Christmas. A year later it had recovered 35% from November levels while $ETH quietly set the stage for the DeFi explosion that followed. 2022 was even uglier. FTX blew up in the same window as the vote. $BTC sat at $16,500 and felt finished. Twelve months later it had more than doubled and $SOL ripped from near-zero to leading the next leg.
The pattern is the uncertainty peaking right before the ballots, then fading once Congress actually sits. Liquidity comes back, the worst-case regulation narrative dies, and the next catalyst takes over. 2026 is already starting to look a lot like those two setups.
Where do you think this one goes once the 2026 votes are counted?
#Bitcoin #Midterms #CryptoCycles
Bitcoin has posted 120% and 35% gains in the 12 months after the last two US midterm elections, the exact opposite of the chaos most traders price in.
The real pain is freezing up on election FUD and selling $BTC near the lows, only to watch the recovery start without you. That hesitation after 2018 and 2022 locked people out of the best entries of those entire cycles.
I traded both of them. After the 2018 midterms $BTC was already sliding hard and printed $3,200 by Christmas. A year later it had recovered 35% from November levels while $ETH quietly set the stage for the DeFi explosion that followed. 2022 was even uglier. FTX blew up in the same window as the vote. $BTC sat at $16,500 and felt finished. Twelve months later it had more than doubled and $SOL ripped from near-zero to leading the next leg.
The pattern is the uncertainty peaking right before the ballots, then fading once Congress actually sits. Liquidity comes back, the worst-case regulation narrative dies, and the next catalyst takes over. 2026 is already starting to look a lot like those two setups.
Where do you think this one goes once the 2026 votes are counted?
#Bitcoin #Midterms #CryptoCycles
The real pain is freezing up on election FUD and selling $BTC near the lows, only to watch the recovery start without you. That hesitation after 2018 and 2022 locked people out of the best entries of those entire cycles.
I traded both of them. After the 2018 midterms $BTC was already sliding hard and printed $3,200 by Christmas. A year later it had recovered 35% from November levels while $ETH quietly set the stage for the DeFi explosion that followed. 2022 was even uglier. FTX blew up in the same window as the vote. $BTC sat at $16,500 and felt finished. Twelve months later it had more than doubled and $SOL ripped from near-zero to leading the next leg.
The pattern is the uncertainty peaking right before the ballots, then fading once Congress actually sits. Liquidity comes back, the worst-case regulation narrative dies, and the next catalyst takes over. 2026 is already starting to look a lot like those two setups.
Where do you think this one goes once the 2026 votes are counted?
#Bitcoin #Midterms #CryptoCycles
98
Do you know when the last midterms were? 👀🙈🙉🙊 It was November 8, 2022:
BTC declines after USA Midterm elections in:
✅ 2010 (−72%)
✅ 2014 (−65%)
✅ 2018 (−52%)
✅ 2022 (−27%)
This year, midterms are on November 3rd.
This time it will be different :) Right ?
#Midterms #MidtermStrategy
Do you know when the last midterms were? 👀🙈🙉🙊 It was November 8, 2022:
BTC declines after USA Midterm elections in:
✅ 2010 (−72%)
✅ 2014 (−65%)
✅ 2018 (−52%)
✅ 2022 (−27%)
This year, midterms are on November 3rd.
This time it will be different :) Right ?
#Midterms #MidtermStrategy
BTC declines after USA Midterm elections in:
✅ 2010 (−72%)
✅ 2014 (−65%)
✅ 2018 (−52%)
✅ 2022 (−27%)
This year, midterms are on November 3rd.
This time it will be different :) Right ?
#Midterms #MidtermStrategy
82
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💰 Billionaire George Soros-linked organizations have donated $102M to Democracy PAC ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms.$AAPLB
Big money is once again playing a major role in U.S. politics. 👀$BTC
#Soros #USPolitics #Midterms
💰 Billionaire George Soros-linked organizations have donated $102M to Democracy PAC ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms.$AAPLB
Big money is once again playing a major role in U.S. politics. 👀$BTC
#Soros #USPolitics #Midterms
Big money is once again playing a major role in U.S. politics. 👀$BTC
#Soros #USPolitics #Midterms
1
78
Article
Bitcoin caiu após os últimos 4 midterms dos EUA: coincidência ou sinal de alerta para novembro?O analista Ali Martinez chamou atenção para um padrão: o Bitcoin caiu 72%, 65%, 52% e 27% após as eleições de 2010, 2014, 2018 e 2022. A próxima é em 3 de novembro de 2026. Antes de se assustar, vale entender o que isso significa. (finbold)
O que ele disse (e o que não disse)
O próprio Martinez ressalva que isso não prova que as eleições causaram as quedas. Ele aponta como nível a observar a região de US$ 73 mil, que representa o custo médio dos detentores de curto prazo. Segundo a CryptoPotato, ele sugeriu realizar lucros no fim de outubro, com expectativa de US$ 100 mil, e comprar de novo perto de US$ 73 mil depois das eleições. É um cenário dele, não uma previsão garantida. (Analyst warns U.S. midterm elections could spark ‘Bitcoin dump’ +2)
Por que o padrão pode enganar
Os números não mostram em quanto tempo as quedas ocorreram. Em 2010, o BTC subiu 391% no quarto trimestre, apesar da queda de 72% citada.Em 2010 o mercado era outro, e as quedas de 2018 e 2022 foram ligadas a choques cripto e macroeconômicos.O Q4 de 2014, 2018 e 2022 terminou negativo: -16,70%, -42,16% e -14,75%. São só três casos, uma amostra pequena. (Bitcoin Plummeted After the Last 4 Midterm Elections: Will History Repeat? - Benzinga +2)
O que vem depois das quedas
A Binance Research encontrou queda forte nos anos de midterm de 2014, 2018 e 2022, mas também ganho médio de 54% nos 12 meses seguintes às eleições. (crypto-economy)
Nas ações, o histórico é mais consistente
O S&P 500 teve retorno positivo nos 12 meses após as eleições de meio de mandato em 95% das vezes desde 1938, segundo a Fidelity. O U.S. Bank mostra que a média foi de 12,4% nos 12 meses seguintes, e de 17,5% considerando as eleições desde 1980. Esse mesmo estudo ressalta que a economia pesa mais nos retornos do que a eleição em si. (Yahoo Finance) (usbank)
Minha leitura
O padrão serve como alerta de volatilidade, não como previsão de queda. Quatro casos não formam uma regra, e o histórico de 12 meses depois favorece quem tem horizonte longo. Quem opera no curto prazo deve definir seu risco antes de 3 de novembro.
Você acha que o Bitcoin repete o padrão desta vez? Conta nos comentários e me segue aqui para acompanhar a análise até a eleição.
Não é recomendação de investimento.
#bitcoin #Midterms #cripto #AnaliseDeMercado #BTC $BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin caiu após os últimos 4 midterms dos EUA: coincidência ou sinal de alerta para novembro?
O analista Ali Martinez chamou atenção para um padrão: o Bitcoin caiu 72%, 65%, 52% e 27% após as eleições de 2010, 2014, 2018 e 2022. A próxima é em 3 de novembro de 2026. Antes de se assustar, vale entender o que isso significa. (finbold)
O que ele disse (e o que não disse)
O próprio Martinez ressalva que isso não prova que as eleições causaram as quedas. Ele aponta como nível a observar a região de US$ 73 mil, que representa o custo médio dos detentores de curto prazo. Segundo a CryptoPotato, ele sugeriu realizar lucros no fim de outubro, com expectativa de US$ 100 mil, e comprar de novo perto de US$ 73 mil depois das eleições. É um cenário dele, não uma previsão garantida. (Analyst warns U.S. midterm elections could spark ‘Bitcoin dump’ +2)
Por que o padrão pode enganar
Os números não mostram em quanto tempo as quedas ocorreram. Em 2010, o BTC subiu 391% no quarto trimestre, apesar da queda de 72% citada.Em 2010 o mercado era outro, e as quedas de 2018 e 2022 foram ligadas a choques cripto e macroeconômicos.O Q4 de 2014, 2018 e 2022 terminou negativo: -16,70%, -42,16% e -14,75%. São só três casos, uma amostra pequena. (Bitcoin Plummeted After the Last 4 Midterm Elections: Will History Repeat? - Benzinga +2)
O que vem depois das quedas
A Binance Research encontrou queda forte nos anos de midterm de 2014, 2018 e 2022, mas também ganho médio de 54% nos 12 meses seguintes às eleições. (crypto-economy)
Nas ações, o histórico é mais consistente
O S&P 500 teve retorno positivo nos 12 meses após as eleições de meio de mandato em 95% das vezes desde 1938, segundo a Fidelity. O U.S. Bank mostra que a média foi de 12,4% nos 12 meses seguintes, e de 17,5% considerando as eleições desde 1980. Esse mesmo estudo ressalta que a economia pesa mais nos retornos do que a eleição em si. (Yahoo Finance) (usbank)
Minha leitura
O padrão serve como alerta de volatilidade, não como previsão de queda. Quatro casos não formam uma regra, e o histórico de 12 meses depois favorece quem tem horizonte longo. Quem opera no curto prazo deve definir seu risco antes de 3 de novembro.
Você acha que o Bitcoin repete o padrão desta vez? Conta nos comentários e me segue aqui para acompanhar a análise até a eleição.
Não é recomendação de investimento.
#bitcoin #Midterms #cripto #AnaliseDeMercado #BTC $BTC
O que ele disse (e o que não disse)
O próprio Martinez ressalva que isso não prova que as eleições causaram as quedas. Ele aponta como nível a observar a região de US$ 73 mil, que representa o custo médio dos detentores de curto prazo. Segundo a CryptoPotato, ele sugeriu realizar lucros no fim de outubro, com expectativa de US$ 100 mil, e comprar de novo perto de US$ 73 mil depois das eleições. É um cenário dele, não uma previsão garantida. (Analyst warns U.S. midterm elections could spark ‘Bitcoin dump’ +2)
Por que o padrão pode enganar
Os números não mostram em quanto tempo as quedas ocorreram. Em 2010, o BTC subiu 391% no quarto trimestre, apesar da queda de 72% citada.Em 2010 o mercado era outro, e as quedas de 2018 e 2022 foram ligadas a choques cripto e macroeconômicos.O Q4 de 2014, 2018 e 2022 terminou negativo: -16,70%, -42,16% e -14,75%. São só três casos, uma amostra pequena. (Bitcoin Plummeted After the Last 4 Midterm Elections: Will History Repeat? - Benzinga +2)
O que vem depois das quedas
A Binance Research encontrou queda forte nos anos de midterm de 2014, 2018 e 2022, mas também ganho médio de 54% nos 12 meses seguintes às eleições. (crypto-economy)
Nas ações, o histórico é mais consistente
O S&P 500 teve retorno positivo nos 12 meses após as eleições de meio de mandato em 95% das vezes desde 1938, segundo a Fidelity. O U.S. Bank mostra que a média foi de 12,4% nos 12 meses seguintes, e de 17,5% considerando as eleições desde 1980. Esse mesmo estudo ressalta que a economia pesa mais nos retornos do que a eleição em si. (Yahoo Finance) (usbank)
Minha leitura
O padrão serve como alerta de volatilidade, não como previsão de queda. Quatro casos não formam uma regra, e o histórico de 12 meses depois favorece quem tem horizonte longo. Quem opera no curto prazo deve definir seu risco antes de 3 de novembro.
Você acha que o Bitcoin repete o padrão desta vez? Conta nos comentários e me segue aqui para acompanhar a análise até a eleição.
Não é recomendação de investimento.
#bitcoin #Midterms #cripto #AnaliseDeMercado #BTC $BTC
1.1k
If you're still treating US midterms as irrelevant to your crypto positions, stop now.
Traders keep losing money on FOMO entries that get wrecked by overnight regulatory news. They have no idea when to exit because they ignore how politics can flip the entire tape.
Most in crypto believe Republicans holding Congress is the bullish case heading into November. The current administration has shown a friendlier stance with looser rules compared to the past. The stablecoin bill already passed, which helps $USDT, and the market structure bill remains the key unfinished piece.
A Democratic shift might bring more consumer protections against scams, but it typically slows everything down and adds layers of uncertainty for $BTC and $ETH. I think the looser regulatory path has given the market actual breathing room so far.
What's your take on whether a Republican win is already priced in or still a real catalyst?
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Midterms
If you're still treating US midterms as irrelevant to your crypto positions, stop now.
Traders keep losing money on FOMO entries that get wrecked by overnight regulatory news. They have no idea when to exit because they ignore how politics can flip the entire tape.
Most in crypto believe Republicans holding Congress is the bullish case heading into November. The current administration has shown a friendlier stance with looser rules compared to the past. The stablecoin bill already passed, which helps $USDT, and the market structure bill remains the key unfinished piece.
A Democratic shift might bring more consumer protections against scams, but it typically slows everything down and adds layers of uncertainty for $BTC and $ETH . I think the looser regulatory path has given the market actual breathing room so far.
What's your take on whether a Republican win is already priced in or still a real catalyst?
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Midterms
Traders keep losing money on FOMO entries that get wrecked by overnight regulatory news. They have no idea when to exit because they ignore how politics can flip the entire tape.
Most in crypto believe Republicans holding Congress is the bullish case heading into November. The current administration has shown a friendlier stance with looser rules compared to the past. The stablecoin bill already passed, which helps $USDT, and the market structure bill remains the key unfinished piece.
A Democratic shift might bring more consumer protections against scams, but it typically slows everything down and adds layers of uncertainty for $BTC and $ETH . I think the looser regulatory path has given the market actual breathing room so far.
What's your take on whether a Republican win is already priced in or still a real catalyst?
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Midterms
46
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Crypto's top 30-day profit traders are all-in on a Republican win this November, yet that kind of crowded consensus has historically been a warning sign more than a green light.
Too many of us have FOMO'd into positions expecting political tailwinds to save our bags, only to get chopped up when the actual vote or bill doesn't match the hype. Missing the exit because you believed the narrative too hard is a special kind of pain.
The logic seems solid on the surface. A Republican-dominated Congress is viewed as positive for crypto since the Trump administration has taken a friendlier stance with relatively looser regulation overall. The stablecoin bill already passed, which should help $USDC adoption, and the market structure bill is the one everyone is still waiting on to potentially unlock more institutional flows into $BTC.
The risk is that even a GOP sweep doesn't guarantee smooth sailing. Markets often price in the best-case scenario months ahead, then dump on any delay or compromise. If Democrats hold more ground than expected or the bills stall, those leveraged positions from the top 30D profit traders could unwind quickly and take $ETH with them.
We've seen similar setups where pro-crypto politics led to initial pumps followed by reality checks. Regulation takes time, and other factors can easily override a midterm outcome. Betting everything on November could leave you exposed if it doesn't play out cleanly.
Anyone else seeing this political bet looking overcrowded?
#crypto #Bitcoin #midterms
Crypto's top 30-day profit traders are all-in on a Republican win this November, yet that kind of crowded consensus has historically been a warning sign more than a green light.
Too many of us have FOMO'd into positions expecting political tailwinds to save our bags, only to get chopped up when the actual vote or bill doesn't match the hype. Missing the exit because you believed the narrative too hard is a special kind of pain.
The logic seems solid on the surface. A Republican-dominated Congress is viewed as positive for crypto since the Trump administration has taken a friendlier stance with relatively looser regulation overall. The stablecoin bill already passed, which should help $USDC adoption, and the market structure bill is the one everyone is still waiting on to potentially unlock more institutional flows into $BTC .
The risk is that even a GOP sweep doesn't guarantee smooth sailing. Markets often price in the best-case scenario months ahead, then dump on any delay or compromise. If Democrats hold more ground than expected or the bills stall, those leveraged positions from the top 30D profit traders could unwind quickly and take $ETH with them.
We've seen similar setups where pro-crypto politics led to initial pumps followed by reality checks. Regulation takes time, and other factors can easily override a midterm outcome. Betting everything on November could leave you exposed if it doesn't play out cleanly.
Anyone else seeing this political bet looking overcrowded?
#crypto #Bitcoin #midterms
Too many of us have FOMO'd into positions expecting political tailwinds to save our bags, only to get chopped up when the actual vote or bill doesn't match the hype. Missing the exit because you believed the narrative too hard is a special kind of pain.
The logic seems solid on the surface. A Republican-dominated Congress is viewed as positive for crypto since the Trump administration has taken a friendlier stance with relatively looser regulation overall. The stablecoin bill already passed, which should help $USDC adoption, and the market structure bill is the one everyone is still waiting on to potentially unlock more institutional flows into $BTC .
The risk is that even a GOP sweep doesn't guarantee smooth sailing. Markets often price in the best-case scenario months ahead, then dump on any delay or compromise. If Democrats hold more ground than expected or the bills stall, those leveraged positions from the top 30D profit traders could unwind quickly and take $ETH with them.
We've seen similar setups where pro-crypto politics led to initial pumps followed by reality checks. Regulation takes time, and other factors can easily override a midterm outcome. Betting everything on November could leave you exposed if it doesn't play out cleanly.
Anyone else seeing this political bet looking overcrowded?
#crypto #Bitcoin #midterms
39
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တက်ရိပ်ရှိသည်
Trump is ready to declare victory over Iran without a nuclear deal. Just Strait of Hormuz reopening. That is the new ask. And the midterms are three months away.
This is the most important geopolitical pivot of the year.
The original deal framework had four points. Block Iran's nuclear program. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lift the naval blockade. Unlock regional investment.
Now according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is willing to walk away from the nuclear component entirely if Iran simply reopens the waterway.
That is not a strategic retreat. That is a political calculation.
Midterms are three months away. Gas prices are still elevated despite the peace deal announcement. WTI crude surged 21% in July. Airline fuel costs jumped 78% since the war started. Every American filling up their car knows the Iran War in their wallet every single week.
A reopened Strait of Hormuz means oil flows normalize. Prices fall. Americans feel it at the gas pump before November.
Trump gets to stand in front of cameras and say he ended the energy crisis, reopened the most important waterway in the world, and brought the war to a close.
Without resolving the nuclear question that started everything.
Iran gets to keep its nuclear program ambitions intact while ending the blockade and the economic pressure.
North Korea is building nuclear fuel at exponential rates. The Pentagon just declared critical munitions in extreme shortage. Geopolitical risk just hit a 65 year high.
And the deal being discussed now leaves Iran's nuclear program exactly where it was before the war.
Gas prices win the midterms. Nuclear proliferation is a problem for later.
Markets will love the Strait reopening. Historians will ask a very different set of questions.
#Iran #Trump #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarket #Midterms $CL $BZ
Trump is ready to declare victory over Iran without a nuclear deal. Just Strait of Hormuz reopening. That is the new ask. And the midterms are three months away.
This is the most important geopolitical pivot of the year.
The original deal framework had four points. Block Iran's nuclear program. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lift the naval blockade. Unlock regional investment.
Now according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is willing to walk away from the nuclear component entirely if Iran simply reopens the waterway.
That is not a strategic retreat. That is a political calculation.
Midterms are three months away. Gas prices are still elevated despite the peace deal announcement. WTI crude surged 21% in July. Airline fuel costs jumped 78% since the war started. Every American filling up their car knows the Iran War in their wallet every single week.
A reopened Strait of Hormuz means oil flows normalize. Prices fall. Americans feel it at the gas pump before November.
Trump gets to stand in front of cameras and say he ended the energy crisis, reopened the most important waterway in the world, and brought the war to a close.
Without resolving the nuclear question that started everything.
Iran gets to keep its nuclear program ambitions intact while ending the blockade and the economic pressure.
North Korea is building nuclear fuel at exponential rates. The Pentagon just declared critical munitions in extreme shortage. Geopolitical risk just hit a 65 year high.
And the deal being discussed now leaves Iran's nuclear program exactly where it was before the war.
Gas prices win the midterms. Nuclear proliferation is a problem for later.
Markets will love the Strait reopening. Historians will ask a very different set of questions.
#Iran #Trump #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarket #Midterms $CL $BZ
This is the most important geopolitical pivot of the year.
The original deal framework had four points. Block Iran's nuclear program. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lift the naval blockade. Unlock regional investment.
Now according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is willing to walk away from the nuclear component entirely if Iran simply reopens the waterway.
That is not a strategic retreat. That is a political calculation.
Midterms are three months away. Gas prices are still elevated despite the peace deal announcement. WTI crude surged 21% in July. Airline fuel costs jumped 78% since the war started. Every American filling up their car knows the Iran War in their wallet every single week.
A reopened Strait of Hormuz means oil flows normalize. Prices fall. Americans feel it at the gas pump before November.
Trump gets to stand in front of cameras and say he ended the energy crisis, reopened the most important waterway in the world, and brought the war to a close.
Without resolving the nuclear question that started everything.
Iran gets to keep its nuclear program ambitions intact while ending the blockade and the economic pressure.
North Korea is building nuclear fuel at exponential rates. The Pentagon just declared critical munitions in extreme shortage. Geopolitical risk just hit a 65 year high.
And the deal being discussed now leaves Iran's nuclear program exactly where it was before the war.
Gas prices win the midterms. Nuclear proliferation is a problem for later.
Markets will love the Strait reopening. Historians will ask a very different set of questions.
#Iran #Trump #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarket #Midterms $CL $BZ
1
281
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$BTC showing early signs of an October bottom 👀
On-chain demand is improving and large holders have stacked nearly 3M $BTC . Midterms on Nov 3 could act as a catalyst. Headwinds remain: elevated yields + slowing ETF inflows.
KillaXBT sees a possible pre-election rally, then a higher-low correction, with potential recovery toward $95k afterward if we dip first.
Accumulation by whales is a solid signal, but demand still negative and macro pressure is real. A clean bottom needs stronger ETF flows and yield relief. Expect choppy action into midterms—patience over FOMO. Higher low setup looks reasonable if we hold key supports. Not financial advice.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Midterms
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC showing early signs of an October bottom 👀
On-chain demand is improving and large holders have stacked nearly 3M $BTC . Midterms on Nov 3 could act as a catalyst. Headwinds remain: elevated yields + slowing ETF inflows.
KillaXBT sees a possible pre-election rally, then a higher-low correction, with potential recovery toward $95k afterward if we dip first.
Accumulation by whales is a solid signal, but demand still negative and macro pressure is real. A clean bottom needs stronger ETF flows and yield relief. Expect choppy action into midterms—patience over FOMO. Higher low setup looks reasonable if we hold key supports. Not financial advice.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Midterms
On-chain demand is improving and large holders have stacked nearly 3M $BTC . Midterms on Nov 3 could act as a catalyst. Headwinds remain: elevated yields + slowing ETF inflows.
KillaXBT sees a possible pre-election rally, then a higher-low correction, with potential recovery toward $95k afterward if we dip first.
Accumulation by whales is a solid signal, but demand still negative and macro pressure is real. A clean bottom needs stronger ETF flows and yield relief. Expect choppy action into midterms—patience over FOMO. Higher low setup looks reasonable if we hold key supports. Not financial advice.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Midterms
19
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$BTC EYES REGULATORY CLARITY AS CLARITY ACT DEADLINE SLIPS 🔥
Entry: Not provided
The CLARITY Act missed its July 4th signing target, and the window for pre-midterm passage is narrowing. Senate work continues behind the scenes, but House proceedings remain stalled. Negotiating parties still target 2026, but a key coordination deadline looms on August 7th — the start of Senate recess.
If the bill fails before midterms and Democrats take control, significant amendments are likely. This regulatory uncertainty is exactly the kind of catalyst that can shift market structure bids. How are you positioning for the August 7th inflection point?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#BTC #Regulation #Midterms #CryptoBill
⚡
$BTC EYES REGULATORY CLARITY AS CLARITY ACT DEADLINE SLIPS 🔥
Entry: Not provided
The CLARITY Act missed its July 4th signing target, and the window for pre-midterm passage is narrowing. Senate work continues behind the scenes, but House proceedings remain stalled. Negotiating parties still target 2026, but a key coordination deadline looms on August 7th — the start of Senate recess.
If the bill fails before midterms and Democrats take control, significant amendments are likely. This regulatory uncertainty is exactly the kind of catalyst that can shift market structure bids. How are you positioning for the August 7th inflection point?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#BTC #Regulation #Midterms #CryptoBill
⚡
Entry: Not provided
The CLARITY Act missed its July 4th signing target, and the window for pre-midterm passage is narrowing. Senate work continues behind the scenes, but House proceedings remain stalled. Negotiating parties still target 2026, but a key coordination deadline looms on August 7th — the start of Senate recess.
If the bill fails before midterms and Democrats take control, significant amendments are likely. This regulatory uncertainty is exactly the kind of catalyst that can shift market structure bids. How are you positioning for the August 7th inflection point?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#BTC #Regulation #Midterms #CryptoBill
⚡
76
$TRUMP DIPPING TOWARD $1.50 - PATIENT BUYERS WATCHING 👀
I've seen this setup before. When a politically themed token gets ignored during a dip, that's often where the heavy hitters start building positions. The midterm election narrative hasn't even begun to heat up, and historical sentiment flips fast once the calendar shifts.
Volume is thinning on each leg down, which tells me sellers are losing conviction. The bid side tends to get sticky around these sub-$1.50 levels.
Are you averaging in here or waiting for a clean sweep first?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#TRUMP #Accumulation #Midterms #PoliticsMeetsCrypto
💎
$TRUMP DIPPING TOWARD $1.50 - PATIENT BUYERS WATCHING 👀
I've seen this setup before. When a politically themed token gets ignored during a dip, that's often where the heavy hitters start building positions. The midterm election narrative hasn't even begun to heat up, and historical sentiment flips fast once the calendar shifts.
Volume is thinning on each leg down, which tells me sellers are losing conviction. The bid side tends to get sticky around these sub-$1.50 levels.
Are you averaging in here or waiting for a clean sweep first?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#TRUMP #Accumulation #Midterms #PoliticsMeetsCrypto
💎
I've seen this setup before. When a politically themed token gets ignored during a dip, that's often where the heavy hitters start building positions. The midterm election narrative hasn't even begun to heat up, and historical sentiment flips fast once the calendar shifts.
Volume is thinning on each leg down, which tells me sellers are losing conviction. The bid side tends to get sticky around these sub-$1.50 levels.
Are you averaging in here or waiting for a clean sweep first?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#TRUMP #Accumulation #Midterms #PoliticsMeetsCrypto
💎
225
Article
🚨 TRUMP MAJOR UPDATE - $1M Reward & Midterms 🚨President Trump drops bombshell 8 days before Nov 3 midterms:
💰 $1M Reward for voter fraud info leading to conviction - announced on Truth Social. No funding details yet, but message is clear.
🗳️ Midterm Blitz: Campaigning in Mississippi, Texas, Florida - GOP fighting to keep Congress. All 435 House + 35 Senate seats on ballot.
⚖️ Court Losses: Appeals court blocks push to stop CA mail ballots, judge blocks tree removal at DC golf course.
📉 Polls: Approval at 32% (Reuters), Dems lead 47%-36% on generic ballot.
What it means for Crypto?
• Midterm outcome = crypto regulation direction
• Trump pro-crypto stance vs Dem scrutiny = volatility incoming
• $BTC range $79.7K holding despite political noise = institutional accumulation continues
Midterms = Volatility = Opportunity. Are you positioned?
Follow $BTC $ETH
#TRUMP #CryptoNews #Midterms #CryptoEagle #BinanceSquare
🚨 TRUMP MAJOR UPDATE - $1M Reward & Midterms 🚨
President Trump drops bombshell 8 days before Nov 3 midterms:
💰 $1M Reward for voter fraud info leading to conviction - announced on Truth Social. No funding details yet, but message is clear.
🗳️ Midterm Blitz: Campaigning in Mississippi, Texas, Florida - GOP fighting to keep Congress. All 435 House + 35 Senate seats on ballot.
⚖️ Court Losses: Appeals court blocks push to stop CA mail ballots, judge blocks tree removal at DC golf course.
📉 Polls: Approval at 32% (Reuters), Dems lead 47%-36% on generic ballot.
What it means for Crypto?
• Midterm outcome = crypto regulation direction
• Trump pro-crypto stance vs Dem scrutiny = volatility incoming
• $BTC range $79.7K holding despite political noise = institutional accumulation continues
Midterms = Volatility = Opportunity. Are you positioned?
Follow $BTC $ETH
#TRUMP #CryptoNews #Midterms #CryptoEagle #BinanceSquare
💰 $1M Reward for voter fraud info leading to conviction - announced on Truth Social. No funding details yet, but message is clear.
🗳️ Midterm Blitz: Campaigning in Mississippi, Texas, Florida - GOP fighting to keep Congress. All 435 House + 35 Senate seats on ballot.
⚖️ Court Losses: Appeals court blocks push to stop CA mail ballots, judge blocks tree removal at DC golf course.
📉 Polls: Approval at 32% (Reuters), Dems lead 47%-36% on generic ballot.
What it means for Crypto?
• Midterm outcome = crypto regulation direction
• Trump pro-crypto stance vs Dem scrutiny = volatility incoming
• $BTC range $79.7K holding despite political noise = institutional accumulation continues
Midterms = Volatility = Opportunity. Are you positioned?
Follow $BTC $ETH
#TRUMP #CryptoNews #Midterms #CryptoEagle #BinanceSquare
194
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22% американців мали чи використовували крипту. добре розбираються в ній 9%. от це я б і ставив у заголовок.
це з нового опитування Ipsos на замовлення DeFi Education Foundation. випустили за два тижні до проміжних виборів, тож читаю з цією поправкою.
а заголовки витягли інше: «підтримка крипти відстає від фінінновацій на 22 пункти». це пункти між відповідями, не люди з першого рядка. і порівняли там різні питання: 35% — «щоб фінтех будували в США», 26% — про правила для інновацій, 13% — про блокчейн, крипту й DeFi. крч чесно — 26 проти 13.
ще й питали не «ти за чи проти», а наскільки це важливо в кандидаті.
децентралізованим платформам довіряють 5%. от це для мене головна цифра, а не вибори.
як на мене, довіра прийде не з політики, а з того, що менше людей зливатимуть деп на зламах. згоден чи це наївно?
#Ipsos #defi #CryptoSurvey #Midterms #USPolitics
22% американців мали чи використовували крипту. добре розбираються в ній 9%. от це я б і ставив у заголовок.
це з нового опитування Ipsos на замовлення DeFi Education Foundation. випустили за два тижні до проміжних виборів, тож читаю з цією поправкою.
а заголовки витягли інше: «підтримка крипти відстає від фінінновацій на 22 пункти». це пункти між відповідями, не люди з першого рядка. і порівняли там різні питання: 35% — «щоб фінтех будували в США», 26% — про правила для інновацій, 13% — про блокчейн, крипту й DeFi. крч чесно — 26 проти 13.
ще й питали не «ти за чи проти», а наскільки це важливо в кандидаті.
децентралізованим платформам довіряють 5%. от це для мене головна цифра, а не вибори.
як на мене, довіра прийде не з політики, а з того, що менше людей зливатимуть деп на зламах. згоден чи це наївно?
#Ipsos #defi #CryptoSurvey #Midterms #USPolitics
це з нового опитування Ipsos на замовлення DeFi Education Foundation. випустили за два тижні до проміжних виборів, тож читаю з цією поправкою.
а заголовки витягли інше: «підтримка крипти відстає від фінінновацій на 22 пункти». це пункти між відповідями, не люди з першого рядка. і порівняли там різні питання: 35% — «щоб фінтех будували в США», 26% — про правила для інновацій, 13% — про блокчейн, крипту й DeFi. крч чесно — 26 проти 13.
ще й питали не «ти за чи проти», а наскільки це важливо в кандидаті.
децентралізованим платформам довіряють 5%. от це для мене головна цифра, а не вибори.
як на мене, довіра прийде не з політики, а з того, що менше людей зливатимуть деп на зламах. згоден чи це наївно?
#Ipsos #defi #CryptoSurvey #Midterms #USPolitics
17
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