野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

ETH $1,918, up 4.27% in 24 hours.

BTC $64,703, up 0.41%.

Make sure you see this clearly—ETH has outperformed BTC, and not by a little.

This matters more to traders than gold jumping to 4261. Over the past two months, ETH has been the laggard: when BTC rose, ETH didn’t follow; when BTC went sideways, ETH first dipped. Today it’s the opposite, which suggests there’s money picking at the “copycat” (alt) bottom—and the scale doesn’t seem small.

I’m not sure whether this is the legendary “alt-season” omen. But one thing is crystal clear: if ETH keeps leading BTC, it means the market’s risk appetite is repairing. Leading gold and leading ETH are two different stories—gold leading follows a risk-hedging logic, while ETH leading follows a risk-taking logic.

Look further: ADA +5.22%, LINK +0.85%, and even UNI is holding steady at 4.09. This whole altcoin sector today isn’t just “following up”—it’s moving on its own.

This is different from the “BTC is pulling neither way” vibe I talked about last week. Last week, BTC was stuck between tech stocks and gold, unsure what to do. Today, the wind has changed: funds are flowing back into the alts.

The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Nonfarm is tomorrow at 8:30 PM. Pulling alts up at this moment—are they running ahead early, or betting that nobody dares to sell before the data comes out?

My take: don’t jump to conclusions. If, after the Nonfarm data is released, ETH can still stay above 1900 and ADA doesn’t bleed back down, then alt-season might really be on the way. But if the data comes out and everything drops back—then this move today is a classic “fake breakout before the data.”

Save your ammo and wait for Nonfarm. Still, this shift in structure is worth validating then—especially closely.

BTC is back to 64871, but the key point isn’t that number.

What you should really watch on the board today is this: gold at 4262, and BTC is also edging higher. When both rise at the same time, it’s different from last week’s “hedging vs. risk” pattern.

As I mentioned last week, gold rising is hedging, tech stocks rising is risk, and BTC sits in the middle—caught between both sides, not really aligned with either. But today, this move at 64871 happened without gold falling. Meanwhile, ETH is also moving up (+2.23%). That suggests capital is re-pricing something: the liquidity story after the Non-Farm Payrolls.

I don’t know whether this is just an early run or real, cash-on-the-ground entry. But one thing is very clear—if tomorrow’s Non-Farm data comes out, and gold is still above 4200 while BTC can hold above 64,000, then the “BTC doesn’t back either side” conclusion needs to be rewritten. Because over the past month, whenever BTC synchronized with gold, it was basically empty hype. This time, if it can withstand the data shock, the nature of it is different.

Another detail that makes me pay attention: the aftershocks from the earlier suspension of US stock tech ETFs haven’t fully faded yet, but BTC hasn’t weakened alongside US stock index futures. That’s also rare lately. It indicates that someone is definitely taking bids at this level.

But don’t forget one thing: the Non-Farm hasn’t landed yet. Everything on the market could be a mirage in the last second before the data hits.

So does 64871 today deserve to be traded? It doesn’t. But does it deserve to be watched? Absolutely.

The focus isn’t that it’s up—it’s that it’s rising together with whom. If tonight when US stocks open, BTC still follows gold rather than the Nasdaq, then that would mean the market is quietly redefining its asset category.

Wait for the data, not for the direction.

August 6 ETH market analysis~~~

Good news is that the 2nd pancake broke above 1881 within the past 4 hours~~
Bad news is that 1940 still hasn’t been able to effectively break through~~

So it’s spiking~~~ but still not enough~~~

Therefore today’s rhythm is to pull back and confirm that support is effective~~~

Key supports below: 1898 1884 1855

From the order book view~~~ I still feel there’s a need for a rebound~~~

Yesterday’s wick at 1855 and 1866 both filled the 2nd pancake’s spot positions~~~

As of now: after 1940 breaks through effectively~~ there’s hope to go to 2200~~~

So~~ over the past month~~ personally I’ve been focusing mainly on going long spot at lower levels~~~

Paired with swing trading in US stocks~~

August 6 BTC market outlook analysis~~~
The 2-day line rebound matches what was expected~~it’s a weak rebound~~the drop isn’t deep~~~

Compared to yesterday~~~
Even though the price didn’t move up much~~
But on the 4-hour chart, the upward pressure/upper movement~~~the structure is currently grinding upward~~

Need to note that the breakout higher is not ideal~~which indicates~~the market still lacks momentum~~
Everyone is going to US stocks and gold~~

Key support levels below today: 64050 63960 63779
Key resistance zone above: 65069-66522

Personally, I’m still looking for an opportunity to go long~~~

Yesterday, I topped up spot holdings for ETH at 1855~~

Today, I’ll watch how the pullback develops~~~
If it breaks below the key support zone, that old position applies: 62800 62200 61500 60900

Oh wow~~~ the gold sold and took off~~~ without looking back~~~ it hit 4300

Gold rose by $200 in just one day yesterday.

From 4096 to 4260—up $200 in a single day. Breaking above 4200 is the first time in a month. Today it’s still pushing higher, reaching 4277. The driver is a clear-cut, “out in the open” story: the US dollar is weakening, June job openings are declining, and Fed official Paulson is still releasing a dovish “open-minded” pigeon. Three lines point to the same narrative: rate cuts are getting closer.

But what’s really tricky isn’t gold—it’s BTC.

Near 64,600, even a 0.6% rise is hard. Same story, but gold understood it while BTC seems not to have. The money going into safe-haven assets and the money taking risk have fully split paths since yesterday.

I don’t think this means BTC is undervalued. It feels more like it’s waiting: with Nonfarm to land at 8:30pm tonight, no one dares to run ahead before the data comes out. Gold is a safe-haven—good or bad data both give reasons to rise. BTC is a risk asset—once the numbers are out, everything has to be repriced. So it’s just sitting at around 64,600, waiting for the data to speak for it.

At times like this, guessing direction is the least useful. In the exact second the data prints, all technical levels have to step aside—verify again tomorrow.

Gold is up $200 in a day. Chasing in is basically taking the bag. What you should really think about is this: after Nonfarm lands, do you have any ammunition left in your pocket?

Keep your ammunition. Slow is fast.

Nonfarm data is favorable~~ but that's about it~~~

BTC is back to 64,100, up 1.62%.

Don’t get too excited yet. A 1.62% move used to be called a sideways range three years ago; today it’s called a rebound. The whole crypto market has had its definition of “up” recalibrated once by the bear market.

But the thing you should really be watching today isn’t in the crypto space—it’s out there. Last week, tech stocks had a violent rebound: the Nasdaq 3x long gained 8.89% in one day, AMD rose 8.62%, and SanDisk jumped 11.61%. In the same period, BTC only rose 1.62%. Today it’s again 1.62%. If this number keeps showing up repeatedly, it won’t be coincidence anymore—it’s a sign that the anchoring effect is weakening.

What’s even more twisted is that gold is still rising. The day gold hit a new high at 4,075, I said that when tech stocks and gold rise at the same time, it’s like “schizophrenia” in markets. Now BTC is stuck in the middle—neither keeping pace with tech’s upside, nor catching the safe-haven glow from gold.

So today’s 64,100 isn’t a breakout signal. It’s saying one thing: BTC is turning into an asset that’s “of no benefit to either side.” It can’t rise with risk assets, and it can’t rise with safe-haven assets either.

The only thing that makes this feel a bit less bad is that this rebound happened after the market digested old news of the Iran deal, and before the Non-Farm Payrolls data landed—so it’s a spontaneous repair without new incremental narratives. It suggests that sell pressure in the 63,000–64,000 range has been temporarily absorbed; at least, nobody is rushing to dump from this level.

But don’t assume the direction is set just because it reached 64,100. The Non-Farm Payrolls are right around the corner. The moment the data comes out, this level can be broken just like that.

Haha~~~circle~~~has done the third wave already, it’s around the 62 area~~~~
This is the third time—each time there are surprises~~~
Great stuff~~~

Ever since I got into US stocks~~~
the crypto sector isn’t as appealing anymore~~~

Big bread and two pancakes have been going sideways for almost a month now, with no momentum in terms of making money~~

SanDisk—US stocks are completely going crazy~~~

Today gold also got a taste of it. I chased at 4096, but unfortunately it didn’t retrace, so I couldn’t get the position in!#韩股反弹外资净买入1.4万亿韩元

Will Iran and the U.S. reach a deal? Don’t rush to believe it—first, look at how the market is pricing things.

CNBC says the U.S. and Iran may reach an agreement. But the news flow is a complete tangle: one side says there’s progress, while the other says it hasn’t gone that far. Still, the market has already acted as if it’s happening—S&P 500 shares have surged to a new high with a market cap above 7 trillion, oil prices are moving lower, and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen have flipped the supply-demand logic upside down.

This is the most important trading signal today: the market is pricing in “geopolitical easing,” regardless of whether an agreement is ultimately signed.

What does this mean for BTC? First the conclusion: don’t treat the 64,000 range consolidation as a lagging reaction to the favorable geopolitics. Geopolitical easing is good for traditional risk assets—U.S. stocks and sectors sensitive to oil prices. BTC has barely managed to track the rally this time, suggesting that investors don’t see it as the main character in this story.

When would this view fail? When U.S. stocks open tonight, check whether oil is truly continuing to fall and whether the Nasdaq is truly holding its ground. If oil keeps dropping and the Nasdaq rises, then if the sentiment pricing is confirmed, BTC can follow—that’s what matters. But if oil rebounds and the Nasdaq spikes then fades, then today is all about sentiment, and tomorrow it will likely all give back.

Don’t speculate about what’s happening at the negotiating table. Watch where the money actually goes.

August 5 ETH Market Analysis~~
Previously ETH rose higher than BTC~~~ The market moved faster, one step ahead of BTC~~~

Conversely~~~ when falling, it also lags BTC, one step behind~~~
So the current adjustment progress for ETH will require more time~~~

What it looks like on the chart is~~ weakness~~ and a lack of rebound strength~~~

BTC has already adjusted to the 6-hour timeframe~~ while “ersanbing” is still on the 4-hour timeframe~~

Key resistances above: 1881 1940. Only if it breaks through there~~ will there be hope to go above 2000~~~

Key supports below: 1855 1820 1806 1795

1847 can be taken as a very important dividing line~~~ if it doesn’t break down~~~ then the market isn’t considered weak~~~

From the current chart~· both low-buy and high-short setups can be done. There is a clear resistance zone~~ and support zone~~~ As long as the position size is safe~~ both sides can be profited from~~~$ETH #ETH

August 5th BTC market analysis~~
Today, BTC’s 2-day line has just opened new momentum~~~ and the close is not bad~~ but there still hasn’t been a small breakthrough above the resistance zone~~~ 642-645-650

Key support today: 63550-62860. If it breaks down: 62200-61500-60900

Recently, the rebound strength has been somewhat weak~~ and if you look at it the other way~~ the downside strength is also weak~~

So it’s still ranging, oscillating within a range~~ with support below and resistance above~~~ but liquidity is also lacking~~~ it’s basically not being played~ U.S. stock market volatility is so good~~ and it has drained quite a bit of blood~~

Personally, I still lean toward expecting a weak pullback followed by a decline~~~ and there’s a chance it could play out a rebound~~~

That’s why I’ve been looking for opportunities to add to spot positions~~~

But based on the current chart~~ unless you catch the needle-like entry point for a long at the low~~ and unless the market forms a breakout that clearly signals a reversal, it won’t come out so quickly~~~ it will need a long time to grind~~~

So for crypto lately, we still need patience—slowly wait~~~ #Bitcoin recovers the $64,000 level

The Nasdaq Technology ETF paused trading on August 5—and this is more serious than it looks.

The Invesco Nasdaq Technology ETF (Nasdaq Technology ETF) tracks a bunch of tech stocks that everyone knows well—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD. It’s not that one company has a problem; instead, a whole basket of stocks suddenly can’t be priced.

I haven’t seen any official explanation for the detailed reason behind the suspension, but what kind of day is August 5? It’s the three-day “blackout” period before the Non-Farm Payrolls report, when the market is waiting for direction. A technology ETF choosing to pause trading at this time likely has only two possibilities: either something is wrong with liquidity, or something that hasn’t been disclosed yet is starting to build momentum.

What concerns me most is the timing. If this were just a routine technical halt, why would it be scheduled to coincide with the trading session? And why here—especially in the context of U.S. stock index futures already weakening?

Put it in the context of BTC: this shouldn’t be treated like a side-note. In the past month, the short-term correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Technology stocks has been absurdly high. On the day Nasdaq 3x long surged 8.89%, BTC only moved along passively by 1.62%. But if things go the other way—if there’s trouble in the tech sector—BTC’s selloff usually won’t be discounted.

My instinct is: this isn’t a Crypto-native negative catalyst, but if tonight U.S. tech stocks trigger panic selling because this ETF is suspended, BTC will most likely be dragged down too. The support around 63,000 is nothing in the face of liquidity-driven panic.

The only uncertainty is the scale. If it’s just an operational issue with the ETF and trading resumes normally within a day or two, that’s basically noise. But if behind the scenes a major institution is getting liquidated or there’s concentrated closing out across tech stocks, then it’s not that simple.

We’re still in a phase with insufficient information. My advice isn’t to bet on direction—it’s to watch the Nasdaq futures’ move tonight. If after the suspension news the futures clearly weaken, then tomorrow morning it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see BTC back below 63,000.

Not every burst of volatility is worth trading. In moments like this, it matters more whether you can withstand an unexpected low open with your current position than whether you can guess the direction.

The Nasdaq 3x leveraged long ETF rose 8.89% in one day. AMD rose 8.62%, and SanDisk (Flash) rose 11.61%.

You think the market is throwing a party. But gold is also up to 4075, hitting a recent high. That’s the strangest part of today’s trading.

On one side, there’s a violent rebound in semiconductors. On the other, safe-haven assets are making fresh highs. The nice way to call it is “divergence”; the harsh way to call it is “schizophrenia.” There’s only one explanation for this kind of tape: someone is using leverage to chase tech stocks, while someone else is buying gold to hedge uncertainty. Both sides aren’t wrong, but their logics contradict each other—eventually one side will get slapped.

Turning to BTC, there are three scenarios:

Scenario 1: This move in tech stocks is a rebound from oversold conditions, not a trend reversal. AMD and Intel fell too hard earlier, and today’s action is more about short-covering than new money flowing in. If the Nasdaq pushes up and then fades over the next day or two, BTC will likely follow back as well. Because BTC’s short-term correlation with the Nasdaq is currently too high—so high it doesn’t look like a genuine safe-haven asset.

Scenario 2: This rebound is real money entering—Nasdaq breaks above the prior high. Then BTC should be able to ride along somewhat passively, though the magnitude is hard to say. The problem is that in the previous two big tech rallies, BTC didn’t catch up with proportionate upside—its gains relative to the Nasdaq have been diminishing. If it’s the same again this time, it would suggest the “tech-stock anchor effect” on BTC is weakening, which is bad news for bulls.

Scenario 3: Gold keeps rising while tech stocks pull back. This is the scenario I’m most worried about: it would mean the market is truly trading not a tech recovery, but a hedge against the entire financial system risk. If it reaches that point, BTC would most likely rise alongside gold for a bit first, and then get “blood-drained” by liquidity.

Honestly, I can’t make sense of today’s market action for now. If I can’t figure it out, I won’t force a conclusion. The only certainty is that SanDisk is up 11% and gold is up to 4075 at the same time—this combination isn’t common. Either global liquidity suddenly got looser, or someone made a bad bet in one direction. We’ll know in a couple of days.

For now, I can only watch. With BTC at 64,000, in this tape, it means nothing.