野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

$63K breached! BTC drops to $61,977—should you panic?

This morning we just talked about our Strategy throwing $200M and still not being able to break through $63K; by afternoon, the market responded with foot voting—BTC slid to $61,977, ETH followed to $1,734, and SOL hit $77. In four hours, $63K support has turned into resistance.

1. Breaking $63K doesn’t equal a collapse. The $60K–$62K range we discussed this morning has heavy turnover; now the price has dropped into this zone, which is exactly where it can test the thickness. The key is $60K—if it holds, it’s an accumulation range; if it doesn’t, look for $56K–$58K. This is not a time to panic, but a time to observe.

2. ETH at $1,734 and SOL at $77—altcoins are generally falling harder than BTC. But on the Robinhood Chain side, CASHCAT surged against the trend to a $100M market cap. Funds aren’t running—they’re switching tracks. Robinhood’s executives said the company’s former name was Cashcat, and the CEO is focused on project X. First shot on a new chain—this signal deserves attention.

3. Technically, $63K is now resistance; the bullish signal comes from reclaiming and standing back above $63K. Below, $60K is the line of defense; above, $65K is the target. Between them is the range-bound zone. In a choppy market, don’t chase highs or sell lows—make decisions around the boundaries.

That line we said this morning still holds: if you’re not afraid of Saylor selling coins, why would you fear it when BTC slips from $63K to $61,977? It’s down less than 2%.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

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#BTC Intraday Market Analysis~~~

Current resistance is around 65~~~

64500 65300 65700

Intraday: the rebound hasn’t ended yet~~~
But multi-level divergence + insufficient momentum~~~
Chasing longs isn’t recommended~~~You can wait for a pullback to test with a small position~~~

From a daily perspective, the overall bias is still bearish~~~
But there is a need for a rebound~~~

The recent pressure zone is around the 1D EMA52~~~i.e., 653-657

So~ trade plan:
Short around 653-657~~~watch the strength of the pullback~~~
If price doesn’t break below~~~and breaks above 657~~~then don’t short in the short term~~~the rebound could continue~~~

Support zones below: 625 618 60900

Look at a larger timeframe~~the weekly bottom divergence hasn’t been fully confirmed yet~~~
Resistance is at 64500
But if the daily resistance zone fails—if price keeps falling but can’t drop through~~~then the divergence may become confirmed~~~the upper rebound limit could reach around 805~~~

So~~~both shorts and longs~~~need to be adjusted according to the order book~~~
Never stubbornly hold on~~~

Once price breaks the trading range, the next move could likely turn into a short directional trend~~

People who wouldn’t sell BTC started selling—and the market isn’t panicking instead?

On Saturday, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC ($216 million) to pay preferred share dividends—its largest coin sale in history. Saylor went from “never sell” to “selling for dividends.” The market should have panicked—so why is $63K barely moving?

1. The $63K level has been tested three times: the jobs report slashed expectations (57,000 vs. 115,000) → a sharp selloff in U.S. stocks → Strategy dumped $200 million. Three layers of bearish news didn’t break through, suggesting the buy-side below is thicker than people think. $65K is resistance, but the bears have fewer bullets left.

2. Grayscale said that Strategy selling BTC is not a bad thing. Previously, the market worried about “when will he sell”—that was a hanging sword. Now it’s clear on the record, so uncertainty actually decreases. Strategically, his long-term BTC holdings haven’t changed: 843,775 BTC are still there, and the company also has $2.55 billion in cash.

3. Technically, the 144-day EMA is flattening, and the $62K–$65K range is tightening. This pattern usually precedes a directional move soon. Bullish, but not in a hurry. Wait for a break above $65K for confirmation, or for a pullback to $62K to hold before acting. Direction matters more than timing.

A market that got hit three rounds and still didn’t break—either the bears aren’t aggressive enough, or there really are people below ready to pick up.

$BTC

#LAB The front desk said they wanted to leave for a bit~~~~
The funding rate is too high~~~
Today I checked~~~ sure enough, it went down~~

The Nasdaq can’t hold on anymore~~~

Bad news~~ETH has once again deposited 63,000 coins into Coinbase~~~
Time to offload~~~

$BTC $ETH $SOL

I took a quick look at the counterfeit “trending search” leaderboard—polarization is even more severe than I expected: YFI +45%, ANSEM +39%, but BONK is down 8%.

This kind of extreme split is a classic signal at the bottom of a bear market: there isn’t enough capital, so they can only pick and choose what to push. This isn’t really the “alt season” coming in—rather, certain project teams, taking advantage of a liquidity vacuum, have pulled up the sentiment by lifting a few specific names. Look at the volumes: YFI is only $77M, ANSEM $68M—trading volume simply can’t support a sustained move. But direction-wise, it’s not necessarily bad—if someone is willing to light a fire at the coldest time, it suggests the bottom really does have people starting to look for opportunities.

Compare that with HYPE, a top-10 alt that’s still moving sideways around $71. AVAX at $6.93 and UNI at $3.19 are also hovering near +1%. The broader market is waiting for direction, while the alts are waiting for the market to move first. Don’t rush to jump in—let the bullets fly for a bit.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

Claude Fable 5 is now charged based on usage—at this point in time, it’s rather delicate.

Anthropic began charging per-usage pricing a few weeks after releasing its most powerful model. In plain terms, the models are too expensive to keep burning money. Fable 5’s inference cost is more than double that of the previous generation; once the free trial period ends, the bill can make small teams gasp. If this happened half a year ago, people might still be arguing about “open source vs. closed source.” But now the market reaction is unusually quiet—because everyone knows that top-tier models are expensive, and they’ll only get more expensive.

Two layers of judgment: first, the AI industry is following the same old playbook as cloud services—burn money to win users first, then gradually reel them in. That’s what AWS did back then; who still dares to say cloud is cheap now? Second, this is actually good news for the decentralized crypto-AI track. As centralized AI gets more and more expensive and closed off, there’s real demand for decentralized inference and compute markets. It’s not saying it will take off immediately, but this narrative direction is correct.

Also, one more thing: the AI sector in the U.S. stock market has been cooling down recently, with capital moving from pure AI concepts to companies with actual revenue. Claude’s shift to paid service is a signal—the market isn’t willing to pay for people who can only tell stories.

Gelonghui July 6｜Strategy Inc. sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin last week, marking the company’s first major step after recently announcing financing reforms. Previously, both Bitcoin and the company’s own share price had experienced a prolonged decline. This transaction represents the largest Bitcoin sale since the company began accumulating positions in 2020, and its third sale in history. In pre-market trading on Monday, Strategy’s share price fell by about 3% at one point, while Bitcoin dropped 1.3%. Meanwhile, a notice released on Monday said that Strategy recorded a $8.32 billion digital asset loss in the three months ended June 30.

#strategy Microlstrategy has started selling~~~ 3588 BTC
So this needle is what he released~~~

62590 Someone bought in to go long 210 million 3356 BTC
This pullback was expected~~
Today’s pullback target is around 618~~~

But as of now~~~ there doesn’t seem to be a bottoming signal yet~~
My short position from 63 has started making money~~
#BTC

BSC’s on-chain activity over the past week has surpassed Solana.

Not just for a moment—ever since last week, it has been steadily pressing and beating it. DEX trading volume, daily active addresses, new token launches—BSC has overtaken across the board. That old chain, which everyone mocked last year as “only shitcoins and bagholders,” has suddenly come back to life.

This matters far more than it seems on the surface.

This year, Solana has eaten up too much of the L1 narrative—fast, cheap, lots of users, strong meme culture. But BSC’s recent comeback suggests one thing: on-chain liquidity has no loyalty. Whichever chain has the stronger wealth-creation effect, that’s where the money goes.

Go one layer deeper: BSC is backed by Binance—there’s exchange traffic inflow, market makers, and a Launchpad. When Solana’s meme fatigue starts to show—Pump.fun growth slows, there have been too many rug pulls, and retail investors get scared after being cut too many times—BSC’s “Shitcoin 2.0” just happens to catch this group of people.

That said, to be honest, it’s still hard for BSC to permanently replace Solana in the long run. Solana’s technical foundation, developer ecosystem, and institutional recognition are still there. But at least now, it’s no longer the only option. When a monopoly begins to crack, the story changes.

BTC support moves up today: 63400 62200 61800

This wave is a rebound on the daily chart~~ resistance zone is: 65300-65700

Current 12-hour inflow~~~ but 642-645 is definitely resistance~~~

On the smaller timeframe there is a need for a pullback from the high area~~~

Don’t chase longs~~ we’re already at the pressure level~~

For short positions, watch for now~~ it doesn’t yet have clear conditions to drop directly~~~

The 4-hour chart has just turned bullish~~~

So if you want to short, be patient—wait until the chart confirms the move~~

Personally, I’ve placed a small short position in my head position~~ the original plan was short entry points at 63-64-65~~~

Now I only have the head position~~ wait until 52 and reassess~~

#BTC