Crypto Market Trends

$BTC $XAU Analysts, including trader Michaël van de Poppe, highlight that Bitcoin's value relative to gold (XAU) has declined to historic lows, a condition similar to those preceding past Bitcoin bull markets. Data from Bitwise Europe and Swyftx analysts predict a capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin may initiate around February to March, supported by Bitcoin's relative undervaluation compared to gold following a recent gold rally. This dynamic may set the stage for renewed investor interest and a potential Bitcoin price rebound.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment reflects emerging optimism mixed with cautious anticipation, as market participants recognize Bitcoin's relative undervaluation against gold. The all-time low ratio may trigger a sense of opportunity and fear of missing out (FOMO), encouraging capital rotation into Bitcoin. Social media and crypto forums show increased discussions about historical parallels to the 2017 bull market entry points, fostering hope and speculative buying interest.
Past & Future
- Past: Similar patterns were observed before previous Bitcoin bull markets, notably in late 2016 when Bitcoin's gold ratio bottomed out before surging in 2017. That period was characterized by shifting investor preference from traditional safe havens like gold towards emerging digital assets.
- Future: If history repeats, Bitcoin could see substantial price appreciation following a capital flow shift starting in February-March. Investors might expect a bullish trend potentially exceeding the gains of the 2017 run, with Bitcoin outperforming gold in relative terms. Quantitative expectations would include a measurable increase in BTC prices alongside a compression or reversal in the BTC-to-gold ratio
The Effect
A significant capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could drive broader institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies as an alternative store of value, increasing Bitcoin’s market liquidity and price stability in the longer term. However, risks include potential volatility during the transition and external macroeconomic factors affecting gold or crypto markets unpredictably. Should capital flow out of gold rapidly, gold prices may face downside pressure, influencing adjacent markets such as commodities and traditional safe haven assets.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Rationale: The historic low Bitcoin-to-gold ratio indicates a favorable entry point for short- to mid-term accumulation, mirroring conditions ahead of prior bull runs.
- Execution Strategy: Initiate phased buy positions in Bitcoin starting close to current price levels, integrating technical indicators such as the 20-day moving average and Bollinger Bands to identify optimal entry points during minor pullbacks. Partial orders should be placed incrementally to manage risk and capitalize on potential dips.
- Risk Management: Set stop-loss orders at approximately 5–8% below entry prices to limit downside exposure. Employ technical confirmations with RSI and MACD indicators to monitor trend strength and adjust positions accordingly. Maintain portfolio diversification to mitigate sector-specific risks, considering crypto's correlation with broader market movements.
This strategy aligns with institutional approaches emphasizing systematic phased buying and risk control while capitalizing on a favorable macro asset rotation backdrop.#BTC突破7万大关 #btcbullruninfebruary #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection #GOLD_UPDATE

#PreciousMetalsTurbulence $BTC $XAU JPMorgan analīze atklāj momentum atšķirības starp Bitcoin nākotnes darījumiem un dārgmetālu nākotnes darījumiem. Viņu dati norāda, ka Bitcoin nākotnes darījumi ir kļuviši pārdoti, norādot, ka nesenie cenu kritumi var būt bijuši pārspīlēti vai ir sasnieguši tehnisko apakšu. Savukārt zelta un sudraba nākotnes darījumi rāda pārmērīgas pirkšanas apstākļus, ko lielā mērā virza institucionālā un momentum tirgotāju pozicionēšana kopā ar pieaugošo interesi no privātiem investoriem un centrālajām bankām.
Tirgus noskaņojums

$BTC The partial shutdown of the U.S. government caused by the House of Representatives not passing a budget bill before the deadline, despite the Senate passing a temporary funding measure. This political deadlock has negatively affected the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling below $83,000 and sentiment turning cautious. Traders are preparing for heightened volatility due to these uncertainties, especially with low weekend liquidity, alluding to potential price fluctuations in the coming week.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment is marked by caution and uncertainty as a result of the unresolved U.S. budget impasse. The crypto market, sensitive to macroeconomic and political events, is experiencing anxiety stemming from the threat of continued government shutdown and political instability. The drop below the $83,000 level for Bitcoin reflects defensive moves by traders attempting to mitigate risk. Low weekend liquidity exacerbates price swings, inducing cautious trading behavior and increasing volatility expectations.
Past & Future
- Past: Similar past instances, such as previous U.S. government shutdowns (notably in 2018-2019), have correlated with short-term volatility in the crypto markets and broader financial assets, though the economic impact was often limited and temporary.
- Future: If the shutdown is resolved quickly with the House passing the funding bill on Monday, market normalcy and a possible price recovery might occur. However, unresolved political tension could prolong uncertainty, leading to sustained volatility or further downward pressure on Bitcoin, potentially testing support levels in the low $80,000s or below. Quantitatively, a price fluctuation in the range of 3-7% could be expected depending on news flow and market liquidity.
The Effect
The government shutdown’s impact extends beyond immediate political news; it may trigger ripple effects across financial markets as investor confidence dips amid uncertainty. Short-term heightened crypto market volatility risks potential liquidation cascades or abrupt price swings, creating caution in leveraged positions. Additionally, the overlap of political risk with thin liquidity increases susceptibility to outsized price moves. Traditional market volatility could also amplify crypto market reactions, creating a feedback effect across risk assets.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: Given the prevailing uncertainty from U.S. political developments and their limited direct economic impact, a cautious hold stance is advisable. The market is likely to experience short-term volatility, but no substantive long-term fundamental shifts are indicated yet.
- Strategy: Maintain current positions while monitoring key technical indicators and political developments closely. Consider deploying trailing stop-loss orders to protect gains but avoid initiating new significant long or short positions until clarity is obtained post-House vote.
- Risk Management: Tighten stop-loss levels (around 5-8%) to limit downside from possible sharp movements. Diversify portfolio exposures to hedge sector-specific risks and prepare to adjust the position in response to outcome signals from political negotiations. Emulate institutional risk prudence by avoiding over-leveraged bets amid low liquidity and heightened volatility conditions. #USGovtShutdown #bitcoindecline #USPPIJump

$BTC BRICS koalīcija aktīvi virzās uz CBDC iespējoto maksājumu noregulēšanas sistēmu izstrādi, kas paredzētas, lai apietu tradicionālos Rietumu dominētos tīklus, piemēram, SWIFT. Indija ieņem vadošo lomu, iestājoties par šo sistēmu iekļaušanu 2026. gada BRICS samita darba kārtībā, uzsverot nepieciešamību samazināt starptautisko maksājumu izmaksas un noregulēšanas laikus no pašreizējiem 4-5 dienām un 5-6% maksām. Pamattehnoloģija izmanto blokķēdes arhitektūras, piemēram, BIS inovāciju centra mBridge platformu, lai nodrošinātu maksājumu pret maksājumu valūtas maiņas noregulēšanu, neizveidojot kopīgu valūtu vai supranacionālu varu. Šīs sistēmas iekļauj kapitāla kontroles, izmantojot programmējamas regulatīvās ierobežojumus, nodrošinot kontrolētus starptautiskos plūsmus, īpaši ņemot vērā Indijas nepilnīgi konvertējamo rūpiju.

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Galvenais katalizators bija nozīmīga tirgus pārdošana. Daudzi avoti norāda uz konkrētu, lielu notikumu, kas sagatavoja augsni šādai svārstīgai situācijai. Saskaņā ar analīzi no QCP Capital, Bitcoin cenas darbība ap $88,000 līmeni nesen ir bijusi notikumu punkts, atkārtoti izraisot likvidācijas dēļ lejupvērstas kustības.
Sniedzamajā datu kopumā nozīmīgākā diskusija ir par vēsturisku likvidācijas notikumu, kas notika 2025. gada 10.-11. oktobrī (bieži saukts par "1011" notikumu). Lai gan minētie skaitļi konkrētajam notikumam ir lielāki ($19-30 miljardi), pamatcēloņi sniedz skaidru veidni nesenām likvidācijas viļņiem. Identificētie galvenie iemesli bija: