Donetta Pana VgcB

$ETH
My View
ETH is currently in a risk mode rather than a clear uptrend. It’s more vulnerable than many assume right now.

If you’re thinking about entry, waiting for a clearer reversal signal (e.g., strong bounce from ~$2,800 + increased volume + positive catalysts) would reduce risk.

If you enter now: treat it as speculative. Use small exposure relative to your capital and set clear stop-losses.

Longer-term: The institutional developments (like the BlackRock ETF + staking) remain bullish structural points, but they might take time to reflect fully in price.

If support around ~$2,800 breaks, you may see further downside. Conversely, if ETH holds and breaks above resistance zones with momentum, there is scope for a recovery.
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$ETH

Technical / Market Analysis

Current Price & Status

ETH is trading around ~$3,000 (give or take) in recent sessions. TechStock²+1

Key Support & Resistance
Support zone around $2,800–$3,000: Many analysts see that as a potential base. FXStreet+1
Resistance near ~$3,100+ and higher levels (if bullish momentum returns). CryptoPotato

If support fails, downside targets: one article suggests potential declines toward ~$2,600 or even ~$2,100 in a worst-case scenario.
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$BTC

Right now, Bitcoin is in a corrective / risk mode rather than a clean “uptrend” mode. The overall sentiment is cautious.

If you were to trade or invest now, the better approach might be to wait for a clear reversal signal (for example: a break above ~$105k with volume) rather than jumping in aggressively.

If you enter now, you should treat it as a speculative trade, not a safe investment. Use small size, clear stop-loss, and accept that losses are quite possible.

If the support around ~$93k‐95k is tested and holds, that might become an entry point for a rebound. But if that fails, the path toward ~$85k opens up.

🎯 My “Key Levels” for You to Watch

Entry trigger (bullish scenario): close above ~$105k with strength → opens potential toward ~$120k+ (if pattern plays out) AInvest+1
Risk zone / breakdown trigger: dropping below ~$93k-95k may bring bigger drops toward ~$85k. Investing.com+1

Resistance to respect: ~$105k-108k is a hurdle. Until that’s cleared, upside is limited.

Stop-loss / risk management: If you buy near current prices, consider a stop below ~93k (depending on your risk tolerance) given the trend.

Size your trade: Because Bitcoin is volatile now, keep your trade size small and your risk per trade low.

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$BTC

Bitcoin previously had support in the ~$100,000 region, but that zone has been broken or is under threat. Investing.com+2CoinDesk+2

A major resistance zone is around ~$105,000-$108,000, and until that is cleared the upside is limited. Benzinga+1
If the support breaks further, analysts are pointing to ~$93,600 and even ~$85,000 as potential next stops. Investing.com+2Like Rebate Forex+2

Trend / Momentum
The recent trend shows increasing selling pressure and a downward bias. On the daily chart, short-term averages (EMAs) are sloping down. Investing.com+1

Volatility is returning. The implied volatility index for Bitcoin just broke a long-term downtrend, meaning bigger swings ahead. CoinDesk

on-chain metrics show some hesitation: institution / whale flows are weak and profit-taking is building. CoinDesk+1

Setup / Possible Patterns

There is a bullish “falling wedge” pattern identified on shorter timeframes (4-hour chart) which could lead to a breakout if triggered. AInvest

But that pattern is not yet confirmed; if support fails first, the downside risk is still strong.
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Bitcoin cena svārstās pirms Fed procentu likmju lēmuma
Bitcoin (BTC) nokritās līdz $59,500 Binance pirms rītdienas Federālās atvērtā tirgus komitejas (FOMC) sanāksmes. Tirgus dalībnieki gatavojas stingram nostājai no Federālās rezervju sistēmas (Fed), ar gaidām, ka procentu likmes paliks nemainīgas.
CME FedWatch rīks norāda, ka tikai 4.4% ekonomistu prognozē procentu likmju samazinājumu — pirmais vairāk nekā desmit gadu laikā — kamēr dominējošie 95.6% gaida, ka likmes saglabāsies stabilas starp 525-550 bāzes punktiem.
Saskaņā ar Kobeissi vēstuli, pašreizējie tirgus dati norāda uz 36% iespēju, ka šogad nebūs procentu likmju samazinājumu. Pirms četriem mēnešiem iespēja saglabāt pašreizējās likmes bija tikai apmēram 3%.
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🔺 Stagnācijas risks
Šajā finanšu klimātā ASV saskaras ar stagnācijas riskiem, jo inflācija turpinās un ekonomiskā izaugsme palēninās.
2024. gada pirmajā ceturksnī IKP izaugsme palēninājās līdz 1.6%, kas ir zem 2.2% prognozes un samazinājās no iepriekšējā ceturkšņa 3.4%. Tajā pašā laikā ASV pamatā esošais PCE inflācijas indekss pieauga no 2.0% līdz 3.7%.
Fed priekšsēdētājs Džeroms Pauels norādīja, ka jaunākie dati nepadara Fed pārliecinātāku, norādot uz ilgāku laika grafiku, lai atgūtu ekonomisko stabilitāti. Viņš pauda pārliecību par pašreizējo politiku pietiekamību, lai virzītos cauri esošajiem riskiem, norādot uz pastāvīgām augstām procentu likmēm bez paaugstinājumiem.
Bitcoin trajektorija atspoguļoja šīs ekonomiskās neskaidrības, nokrītot zem $62,000 nedēļas sākumā sakarā ar atjaunotajām stagnācijas bažām.
Īss kāpums virs $64,000 notika ar spot Bitcoin un Ethereum ETF palaišanu Honkongā vakar, bet moments bija īslaicīgs, jo investoru piesardzība pieauga pirms Fed svarīgā lēmuma.
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105$