SignalPlus

Atslēgvārdi: (12Jan 4pm HK -> 19Jan 4pm HK)
BTC/USD +1,1% ($91,700-> $92,700), ETH/USD +1,6% ($3,150 -> $3,200)

Žūrija joprojām nav izlēmusi par nākamo virziena gājienu BTC, sākotnējā pozitīva attieksme pret $94.5–95k pretestību pagājušās nedēļas sākumā neizdevās turpināt — īsi pieskaroties nākamajai galvenajai pretestības līmenim pie $98k, pirms ātri atkāpšanās. Atgriešanās zem $94.5k pivot agri pirmdienas rītā Āzijā ir nostiprinājusi mūs atpakaļ vērpšanas formācijā, kas var liecināt par vēl vienu $92k pārbaudi, pirms materiālākas atbalsta pie $88–90k

Galvenie rādītāji: (5 janvāris 16:00 HK -> 12 janvāris 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -1,0% ($92 600-> $91 700), ETH/USD -0,5% ($3 165 -> $3 150)

BTC spot tirgus turpina sākotnējo sāniskās kustības kustību, ko novembra beigās sāka parādīt, un izjūt ne tikai bullus, bet arī bearus ar savu samazināto realizēto volatilitāti. Mēs varam vizualizēt cenu kustību kā trīsstūri, kas nedaudz vairāk liek pie domas par galīgo kustību uz leju (un galīgo atgriešanos), taču ņemot vērā pievilcīgo atbalstu, ko redzējām pēdējos divos mēnešos, ir liela iespēja, ka šī ir sarežģīta korektīvā kustība uz augšu (beigās). Pagaidām tiesa vēl nav izteikta, taču mēs saglabājam vispārējo viedokli, ka no šejienes lejupvērstā kustība būs ierobežota gan pēc kustības apjoma, gan volatilitātes, savukārt augšupvērstā pusē ir daudz lielākas iespējas galīgajai kustībai, tomēr mēs neatgriežamies uz izplūšanu vai lielu volatilitāti šeit. Zem $89 000 vai virs $95 000 varētu izraisīt pāreju no šīs saglabāšanas periods/trīsstūra, un mēs ietejam pacietību, kamēr tirgus mēģina atrisināt savu nākamo kustību

What interesting times we live in.
With the markets closing near all time highs (again) just as the US administration is busy enacting operation regime change 2.0 around the world, we woke up to news of the Federal Reserve getting slapped with a DoJ subpoena as Fed independence continues to be challenged:
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” — Jerome Powell, January 11th, 2026

This is happening while the latest employment data shows that the US remains in a goldlock-like growth scenario, with lukewarm labour figures supporting the (already) easy monetary policy stance, and the fiat-debasement belief keeping assets at a ‘permanently high plateau’. A 50k miss on the NFP headline was made up with a decent 4.4% unemployment rate, and a solid bounce in average hourly earnings to 3.8% YoY.
All in all, a decent growth number which saw US rates priced out a bit of cuts in the very front-end of the curve, while the SPX, oil, and even the USD were well supported by the print.

Elsewhere, the big focus this week was on the US Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA (Trump’s tariffs), which we have yet to see news of yet. A ‘best case’ outcome would be for the court to prevent the administration from levering unilateral tariffs going forward, but allowing the existing tariffs to stay as a one-off for a political compromise. According to Street analysts, the next opinion day when a decision might be released could be on Wednesday of this week.

On the data side, CPI release tomorrow will be the big release, with core expected to increase by 0.27% MoM and 2.7% YoY. Focus will be on shelter inflation, especially with the administration’s recent focus on housing affordability. PPI will follow with a double release (October & November), followed by retail sales (0.4% MoM) and industrial production to end the week.

Crypto saw another very meandering week with BTC hovering around $92k on very little excitement. BTC/ETH ETF inflows have been disappointing in December and thus far in January, with inflows barely seeing any rebound after the horrendous October period. On the other hand, TradFi equity ETFs saw record monthly inflows of $235bln to end 2025 as investors have all but pivoted their degen habits into equity trading, and it’s not clear what immediate catalysts we have to reverse that trend in the near-term.

Outside of prices, viewership and excitement around crypto has died down measurably, with the 30d average views of crypto content on YouTube crashing to the lowest levels since Jan 2021, while X has also started to limit and filter out crypto-related content due to an influx of bots.

On a slightly more positive note, there are some signs of stabilization in outflows as CME futures are showing a small rebound in open interest (vs market cap), with futures position proxy also suggesting that the latest round of de-risking might have mostly run its course, for now.

Geopolitiskās sprieguma vai ne, tirgi nekavējoties atgriezās pilnībā riska uzņēmējības režīmā, kad SPX bija tikai šāvienā no 7000 markas.
Lai arī daudz runāts par Venesuelas situāciju un par to, kas būs nākamais mērķis jaunajā „Donroe doktrīnā“ (Izlande?), skaidrs kļūst, ka pasaulē notiek globāla dārgo metālu un izejvielu uzglabāšanas mēģinājums, kas veido ilgtermiņa pozitīvu scenāriju krājumu tirgiem pasaulē, kurā brīvā tirdzniecība un stratēģiskās savienības tiek izjauktas.

Riska noskaņojums piektdien veica 180 grādu pagriezienu, kad makro aktīvi tika pārdoti visā spektrā, ko vadīja ievērojama vājuma pazīme tehnoloģiju akcijās ar lāču stiepšanos ienesīguma līknē. Bažas par Oracle un Broadcom peļņu pazemināja kopējo riska kompleksu, savukārt gada beigās gūstot peļņu un sektoru rotācija, Nasdaq samazinājās par -2% intraday vienā brīdī.

Turklāt Augstākā tiesa plāno lemt par prezidenta Trampa tarifu pilnvarām jau šajā nedēļā, un negatīvs lēmums nozīmētu, ka ASV valdība varētu parādīt ~200b USD atgriezumus importētājiem nākamā gada laikā. To vajadzētu finansēt no turpmākas obligāciju emisijas, kā arī būtiski ietekmēt nākotnes valdības budžetu, jo tarifi tika noteikti kā galvenais ieņēmumu avots. Tādējādi 10 gadu ienesīgums tika pārbaudīts un izskatās, ka tas varētu pārkāpt vairāku mēnešu griestus pie ~4.20%, savukārt 2/10s ienesīguma līkne arī stiepjas par ~15bp pēdējo 2 nedēļu laikā.

While risk sentiment steadied last week, G7 fixed income had a rough go as a number of Tier-1, non-US economic indicators surprised to the upside. Australia CPI came in at 3.8% vs 3.6% expected, triggering a 15bp gap up in their 5yr yield and AUDUSD +2.5% higher on the month. Canada’s job report was up next with an extremely strong upside beat (unemployment at 6.5% vs 7.0% expected), which triggered the sharpest daily move in the Canadian 5yr bond since 2022 (+20bp), and the CAD soaring by 2%. Over in Japan, despite weak capex spending, the market is pricing in a 90% chance of a BOJ hike this month, making the dovish Fed the odd one out of the G7.

The market widely expects a 25bp in the FOMC this week, with an addition 2 more priced in for all of 2026. Despite stubborn inflation, the Fed has hinted that they will lean on the softness in the unemployment rate (~4.5%) to justify the final cut of the year. Furthermore, with 2 more jobs reports between the Dec and Jan FOMC, we expect Chairman Powell to keep his options open for another rate cut in January or March, with the 2026 ‘dot plot’ similar to before.

Unsurprisingly, the Fed dovishness is starting to meet some market resistance, with market participants starting to price in the chance of a ‘hawkish cut’ through Powell’s Q&A guidance or a change in SEP forecasts. In order to make that happen, the Fed would need to be rather explicit in his forward guidance, such as by shifting the 2026 rate cuts expectations to 1 or less, which we think has a low probability of happening.
On the other hand, with President Trump strongly hinting at Kevin Hasset being the next chair, that’s likely going to be the market’s modal outcome, which implies a more ‘easier’ Fed Chair taking the helm starting next June. As such, the medium views of 1) weaker USD, 2) higher inflation, 3) Treasury curve steepeners and 4) higher asset prices are likely to stay without a meaningful change in realized macro conditions.

All that hasn’t meant a lot of crypto, which saw BTC prices rebound to the 86–92k price range after a quiet week of trading. Unfortunately, underlying sentiment appears to have turned for the worst as Blackrock’s IBIT has suffered its longest streak of weekly outflows since inception, with nearly $2.9bln of cumulative outflows over the past 6 consecutive weeks.

The structural mood change can be seen from BTC’s recent correlation (or lack off), as it has dramatically underperformed the rest of the high-beta, risk-on complex over the past 8 weeks. The asset decoupling is happening at a time when the investor mindshare has fully pivoted to AI and related stocks, with global retail traders flocking back to day trading stocks (and prediction) markets, while gold and silver are still within a stone’s throw from ATHs.

From a production perspective, BTC continues to cover below most measure of product costs. Hash rate has fallen precipiously given China’s recent regulatory turn against crypto activities, as well as miners having shifted its compute resources towards AI and downsizing on their pure mining activities. A protracted stay underneath the product cost shall put additional pressures on miners which could lead to a further retreat in the hash rate and mining difficulty, leading to a more negatively reflexive loop of lower BTC prices in the medium term.

To make matters trickier, the collapse in global DATs has brought a lot of negative attention to supply overhang and possible forced selling should these listed equity prices trade significantly beneath their BTC treasury values. MSTR has been under the most pressure, with the company’s combined debt + equity values now barely trading at a premium to its BTC holdings. When pressed against the uncomfortable question of what happens if the ratio was to dip below 1, Saylor worrisomely said:
“When our equity is trading above the net asset value of the bitcoin, we just sell the equity it creates shareholder value and when the equity is trading below the (net asset) value of the bitcoin, we would either sell bitcoin derivatives or we would just sell the bitcoin.” — Michael Saylor at Binance Blockchain Week, December 3rd
Let’s hope that MSTR’s $1.4bln reserve fund will be able to keep them from force liquidating its BTC reserves in the foreseeable future.

Looking ahead, pretty much the same playbook as before — equities are likely to hold up heading into year-end, with fixed income underlying a near-term adjustment as yields trend higher with global central banks turning more neutral/hawkish outside of the Fed. We fear that crypto remains in a near-term bear market until proven otherwise, and is reflected in the vol market where traders continue to pay-up for protection against lower prices. It would likely take a very dovish cut (or a surprise SPX index inclusion decision) to reverse the near-term trend, so we expect more of the same grind lower in interest and sentiment heading into the new year.
Good luck & good trading.

Key metrics: (17Nov 4pm HK -> 1Dec 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -9.6% ($95,600-> $86,400), ETH/USD -11.9% ($3,200 -> $2,820)After a plunge down towards key support at $80k two Fridays ago, last week was categorised as a corrective climb back from the lows as the market in thin Thanksgiving liquidity attempted to regain a solid footing ahead of an anticipated “Santa” rally. This week began with a reality check: the overhang of longs still out there, and the pivot level of $89k triggered some heavy selling over the Asian session. While we do expect the market to engineer a ‘Santa rally’ later in the month (especially in light of Fed expected to cut rates), we initially (continue) to expect that the most likely path forward is a re-testing of the lows from here, but that low will be a longer term buying opportunity. Participants that didn’t sell the bounce-back last week might be panicking a little, especially if we don’t see a quick recovery/climb back towards the resistance lvls ($88.5–90k) and that would catalyse the move lowerThere are a few alternative “counts” and possible price paths out there — more so than usual owing to the complications of the Oct flash crash — so there is a non-trivial probability that this is simply a correction of an overshoot higher on thin liqudiity and that the longer term move higher is already in play. A final alternative is this is still part of the corrective move before the last leg lower (this will be evident if we reclaim > $90k but fail at $100k) but odds are on more downside price action from here this week. We suggest scaling into longer term longs from here ($85.5–86.5k lvl) and again closer to $80–81k and for the daring, more $78–80k (big secular support comes in below that). Key pivots to the top side include > $89k and through $94.25k, with $100k the key pivot to open us back up to $125–130k region (our target for wave B, which comes after this move is done)
Market Themes
Volatile couple of weeks across markets as the FOMC pricing pendulum swung from 90% odd of a December cut down to 30% and back up to 90%. High-beta tech/AI names and crypto suffered the most, while VIX briefly re-visited the local highs of 25–26 that we have seen on a few occasions this year (excluding the March-April tariff highs >40), though once again this level capped pricing as the fundamental macro backdrop remains broadly risk supportive in the absence of any material change to the Fed’s rate path. The market’s capacity to sustain risk-off for an extended period of time remains limited as positioning lightened up into Thanksgiving and we saw a broad relief in risk assetsAfter leading the move down in the high-beta risk complex, crypto was not spared from an extension of the move lower, with BTC cracking key support at $85k and triggering a fast move down to test strong support at $80k two Fridays ago. From there we have seen a corrective bounce in thin liquidity and selling exhaustion set in and broad risk sentiment bounced, with the market attempting to call the bottom. Unfortunately it seems that sentiment/market structure has been fundamentally weakened following the events of 10th-11th October and so this cycle ‘might be different’ in the sense that buying appetite and fresh liquidity may not be plentiful enough to drive a material surge back through $100k. IBIT outflows have picked up but nothing near the extent of the months of continuous inflows we saw since the summer and the trend of flows there will be key to monitor going forward. Interestingly alt coins have held up relatively better which is very unusual for ‘bear markets’ in crypto, which is suggestive of much deeper de-leveraging (again related to the effects of 10th-11th October) and with alt coin positioning broadly much cleaner (outside of the DAT holdings, though Tom Lee shows no signs of slowing purchases of ETH… yet!)
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols exhibited a big range in the past 2 weeks as <2m contracts exploded higher as spot tested down to $80k before having a sharp sell-off last week as spot exhibited a low realised corrective grind higher, before picking up again with the fresh sell-off from $90.5–85.5k in Asia. Realised performance has actually remained healthy in the high 40s/low 50s, so the sell-off in implied vols can only be attributed to position reduction into year end, with dealers looking to recycle any selling flows from unwinds of directional plays.The term structure of implied vols has flattened up broadly as some supply of back-end vols has left >3m expiries a little heavy, while front-dated contracts remain supported due to elevated realised
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices have broadly been tracking the directionality of spot, and the realised spot-vol correlational (both realised and implied vol) has been incredibly strong. From a supply-demand dynamic the market has started to see overlay supply of calls again even at these spot levels and this should continue to keep skew prices bid deeply for putsConvexity prices have been broadly sideways as spot finds a footing in the broad $80-94k range. Directional plays either side of this range have been in call-spread or put-spread format supplying more wings to the market, with limited expectation of a material break of this range anytime soon. Also with local gamma realising healthily this has also created more appetite for local strikes over wings
Good luck for the week ahead!

Well that was fast. After a strong risk-on rally to close the week, crypto prices cratered hard to start December, with BTC sliding below $87k on yet another stop-loss run being driven during the thin Asia morning session.

While it’s hard to blame a specific trigger, overall risk appetite remains feeble after the Oct-Nov washout, and worsened by a number of negative headlines that have surfaced over the past few sessions. With yet another DeFi hack on a OG protocol (Yearn staking), a DEX terminal abandoning its much anticipated launch over tough market conditions (Terminal Finance), OG Arthur Hayes openly ‘FUD’ing the recent Monad ICO (99% downside), a S&P ratings downgrade of USDT to ‘weak’ (poor disclosures), and the PBoC reiterating its cautious stance on crypto trading & stablecoins, it’s probably fair to say that we remain firmly in bear market territory until further notice.

Over in equities, the SPX rallied by 3.7% last week led by semis (+5.4%) and retail (+4.7%), with retail favourite stocks making a strong week on week come back despite an overall drop in retail trading volumes.

Furthermore, early indications of Black Friday sales suggest that we’ve hit another record, with online sales hitting a record of nearly $12bln (+9% YoY), and Cyber Monday projected to bring in another $14bln in revenues. US consumption appears to remain robust as of now.

Outside of holiday sales, we’ll have a decently busy economic calendar with ISM, ADP, Claims, PMIs, and UMich confidence on deck this week. Despite all the noise, PMIs have been grinding at a healthy expansion range of 50–55 since 2022, while Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow continues to call for an above Wall-Street growth rate as the economy remains in good shape.

The most important econ dates for the rest of the year will be over the next 2 weeks, with FOMC on the 10th, followed by the delayed NFP on the 16th and CPI on the 18th. Furthermore, it’s worth nothing that there’s basically no tier-1 economic data that will be released between here and the FOMC date, so the ~100% chance of a Fed cut is basically baked in, as the Fed is not prone to surprise market odds, and focus will be on the guiding language for the 2026 trajectory, rather than the rate decision itself.
Specifically, we’ll look for the Fed to comment on their increasing confidence in receding inflation pressures versus weakening labour markets and tightening market conditions to justify a ‘dovish cut’, and vice versa the other way. There will also be scrutiny on the minutes on ‘how many’ participants preferred to keep rates unchanged as a dissent, especially in light of the yet-to-be-released NFP and CPI reports, and how Powell responds to the inflation gap vs unemployment gap questions during the Q&A. We’ll cover more on the Fed meeting later as we get closer to the event.

Good luck & good trading!

Crypto showed tentative signs of stabilization following past week’s dramatic sell off. Prices have bounced off the low 80k to trade close to 88k in early Monday, as the market heads into the Thanksgiving holiday week with some cautious optimism as Fed President Williams revived expectations for a December rate cut. A strong equity rally (SPX +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.7%) ahead of the early month-end rebalancing flows also helped to bolster risk sentiment

Risk sentiment improved broadly, with open interest in BTC options turning slightly positive with a put-call ratio of ~0.67 for EoM expiry. Large put strikes are seen at around 80k as put skews remain aggressively bid with upside calls heavily for sale. Markets certainly feel better hedged against further downsides at this juncture, allowing markets to enjoy a reprieve bounce against the 82k support level.

With BTC and ETH underperforming gold and equities by anywhere between 30–60% YTD, ETF flows have turned negative with November registering the worst MTD outflows at ~5bln between BTC and ETH. Contrast that against equities, which saw over $96bln of ETF inflows MTD, and it’s interesting to see that retail investors are starting to differentiate between crypto & equity risks, with a selling of the former converting into buying of the latter.

To make matters worse, there has been increasing chatter that Bitcoin mining has turned unprofitable at the current level, with existing miners turning into more aggressive sellers and pivoting some of their capacity into AI (like everyone else). That has added to concerns that there are committed sellers coming from miners, OG whales, underwater market makers, protocol over-valuation, etc., making the current FUD sentiment as negative as it’s ever been.

With that being said, markets are currently so oversold from both sentiment and technical perspectives (eg. Bollinger bands), and prices are likely to have seen local lows for now absent any new exogenous factors (eg. DAT forced selling), and we expect prices to range between 82–92k from here. Next significant price support comes at around the 78k area, and a sustained break below would open up further significant downside, but is not the base case scenario for now.

Looking ahead, we’ll have a very busy week of data, but they are unlikely to change the near-term risk sentiment materially with the Fed having telegraphed their easing intentions already. US equities remain in an upward train, with positive seasonality working to its benefit into year-end.
Crypto markets have hopefully seen its local lows for now, but we’ll need a firm break of the 92k to repair some of the recent technical damages and signal a further rebound higher.
Good luck & good trading.

Key metrics: (10Nov 4pm HK -> 17Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -10.0% ($106,200-> $95,600), ETH/USD -11.6% ($3,620 -> $3,200)

The rally on the US government reopening news was short lived and the market turned, retesting and breaking the $98–100k support zone. This resulted in a move down to test the support at $93–94k which so far has managed to absorb supply and hold. At this point the breakdown from $112.5–115k post the October flash crash looks to be mostly played out and while it is hard to call the exact lows, we consider dips below here to provide good buying opportunities. More broadly the ABC move from $123k → $107k → $126k → current/$93k looks almost completely played out, however we could see market re-testing the $93–94k, looking for a print down towards $90k, given the growing bearish sentimentPositioning seems lighter out there and CTAs are likely short here, so we think the risk-reward of further downside in spot is shifting here. Below $93k, expect strong support at $89–90.5k. Should that break, there’s isn’t much strong support until we reach $79k (some limited support $83–85k) since <$90k area was a very choppy “pivot” level back in March/April this year. On the top side resistance comes in around $98–101k initially and then again at $104–107k. We think that in general realised volatility will remain elevated whether spot is going up or down, though market will likely try to sell down implied vols initially on the relief in spot (especially if we get back above $107k)
Market Themes
Extension of risk-off sentiment particularly in US Tech/AI names this week, as the end of the government shutdown proved to be a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ event for markets, with the initial relief rally in risk last week fading very quickly. Concerns around AI valuations and spending/investment arose once more while Fedspeak was broadly on the more hawkish side as the market continued to walk back pricing of the December rate cut, from over 90% priced a month ago to a coin-toss 50%/50% as per current pricing. Interestingly though, the pick-up in VIX was fairly muted compared to e.g October, as US equities indexes broadly held in fairly well, with most of the pain felt in AI names specificallyCrypto was not spared from the sell-off in risk assets as BTC plunged back below $100k and took out key support at $98k, trading down to a low of $92.9k over the weekend before finding some temporary equilibrium closer to $95k. ETH also traded down to test $3k again though found some good support again ahead of that level, gravitating back towards the $3.2k that seems to have been a more stable equilibrium for it in the past few sessions. Overall after this latest sell-off, the risk-reward dynamics for accumulating crypto at these levels seems relatively more attractive and we would expect to see a bit more 2-way in the absence of a more protracted sell-off in broader risk assets (or a more material spike in VIX). However native sentiment seems noticeably poor so it will be the resolve of IBIT holders/buyers that will be tested most closely in the coming sessions
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols rallied in line with the recent spot-vol correlation of higher volatility on lower spot, as we plunged back below $100k and took out key support of $98k. Realised volatility continued to remain high both on a high frequency basis but also on a fix-to-fix, with an 90+ vol observation between Thursday and Friday expiry on fix-to-fix. This extended period of high realised volatility is causing some stress in the market and driving a natural reflation of volatility further out the curve, as the market begins to price a higher structural vol base for the asset after an abnormally low period of realised vol over the recent summer monthsThe term structure of implied vols has flattened up driven by higher front-ends as gamma performance remains elevated. The curve moves have been relatively weighted in fashion (i.e. back end vols have still repriced higher but just by a lower beta vs front-end) as the market continues to feel relatively short vol overall. There has been decent demand observed for January/March/June strangles in the past week as the market looks to cover some legacy short vol positions that were put on when the term structure was much steeper
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices broadly moved deeper for puts on the break of $100k and remains fairly bid for puts in gamma tenors as the downside remains the more vulnerable side of the distribution for now. However the market is cognisant of more 2-way risks from this level of spot, particularly on a slightly longer term basis, and this is keeping skew prices fairly stable in tenors further out, as we have begun to see some demand for topside for year-end and out at this lower spot entry levelConvexity prices moved lower as local gamma performed admirably in the past few sessions, while the market is starting to discount the extreme wing observations here as positioning seems to be cleaner and many feel we are coming to the last leg of the sell-off. Directional demand for an extension lower has been seen the in the form of put spreads (e.g. year-end 90k/70k put spreads) while topside plays also seem to be in call-spread format (e.g $110k/125k call spreads) — again adding further supply of convexity to the market. Overall at these levels and given the high vol-of-vol that we have witnessed we think flies are approaching value zone
Good luck for the week ahead!

Crypto prices faltered again the past week with BTC touching $94k on the back of a thin Monday selloff, with the majors selling off another 10–20% on a week-on-week basis, and native sentiment as pessimistic as it’s ever been, including the prior bear markets. While macro headwinds could be excused for driving part of the sell-off, crypto has legitimately underperformed most other asset classes, including levered tech stocks, which they have been most tightly correlated with.

Furthermore, post the October meltdown, persistent rumors of significant market maker losses have led to a significant drop in order book liquidity, exacerbating market moves and particularly to the downside.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve seen rapid deleveraging and real money outflows across the entire crypto complex. Significant CEX futures liquidations are followed by YTD highs in ETF outflows and DAT sales, with Blackrock’s IBIT seeing a single day record of -$463M in sales and DATs also seeing the first weekly outflows since inception.

The persistent sales have led to a collapse in DAT premium to negative territory, sparking concerns of treasury sales as companies dispose of assets to support the falling equity market cap. MSTR is obviously the elephant in the room, though Saylor was quick to publicly deny any sale shennigans, but the final verdict might be yet to be seen.

After a long period of doldrum, both realized and implied volatility have perked up as prices crashed through bull cycle ranges. In particular, put skews remain bid especially for ETH, where real money support less supportive than BTC, opening concerns for sharper downsides.

Amidst all the doom and gloom, have there been any good news out of the space as of late? Outside of the recent Square announcement that they have recently started to accept Bitcoin payments for their merchants, the latest 13F filings have also shown that the Harvard Endowment ($57B AUM) now has a $443M position in IBIT, their largest single equity holding in the portfolio. But before everyone gets too excited, it is unclear that if the position is an outright long or as a spread/arbitrage trade vs DATs or other crypto proxy. We lean towards the latter, but it’s still good to see that TradFi real money accounts are at least becoming more active participants in this space, even if it’s not just a pure long exposure.

Back on macro, US stocks shook off a shaky start despite a -3.8% sell off in the KOSPI and an early -2% swoon in the Nasdaq to close positive on the session while holding its 55d moving average support. Fixed income has also been under stress with Japan, Korea, and UK bonds all under pressure due to brewing fiscal / political concerns, with US treasuries facing similar headwinds as yields have reversed higher.

Over in the US, December rate cut odds have fallen towards 40% as Fed officials have been coming out in force to manage down easing spectations, with the US economy still largely holding in despite some concerns over the labour market. The biggest worry remains with inflation, where President Trump has recently suffered a significant setback in polls given high inflation and rising cost of living concerns, with former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Yellen declaring that the US is “in danger of becoming a banana republic”.
Fed Officials have Been Explicit in Managing Down Easing Expectations, with Former Chair Yellen Proclaiming the US Being in Danger of Being a “Banana Republic”
“It’s not obvious that monetary policy should be doing more right now,” — Cleveland Fed President Hammack
“As I look to the December meeting, I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we’ve been seeing in the labor market.” — Dallas Fed President Logan
“I do not think further cuts in interest rates will do much to patch over any cracks in the labor market — stresses that more likely than not arise from structural changes in technology and immigration policy,” — Kanas City Fed President Schmid

Looking ahead, we’ll be keeping an eye out on a few things.
1.Deluge of Make-Up Data Releases Following Government Reopening
We expect rate cut expectations to be volatile over the next couple of weeks analysts begin to sift through a backlogged economic dataset

2. A Return of Macro Factors to Drive Near Term Asset Moves as Asset Vol have Picked Up
Cross-asset volatility has picked up as investors are focusing back economic growth with early stages of a labour slowdown against stubborn inflation

3. US Equities Remain Rangebound for Now, But Could See an Acceleration on a Sustained Break >7000 or <6500 on the SPX as the Gamma Profile Flips Negative

4. We Remain Cautiously Optimistic on US Equities on (Still) Rising Earnings Growth and Strong Retail Demand
While valuations are expensive, US corporate earnings growth remain at some of the highest levels in recent years

The retail bid in US equities has shown no signs of subsiding, and should be respected until the trend changes

5. Technical Picture on Crypto is Less Supportive, But Could Offer Decent Long-Term Entry Points
We continue to expect the fallout from the October collapse to drag-on as more victims surface, and more protocols to shut as more native participants exit on further dillusionmentDAT sales are a real risk and present a significant overhang on sentiment until further notice.Further sell-offs would present long-term attractive entry points given the continued and accelerating adoption of BTC in the US financial system.

Key metrics: (3Nov 4pm HK -> 10Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -1.0% ($107,200-> $106,200), ETH/USD -1.9% ($3,690 -> $3,620)

After finally breaching the psychological level of $100k last week, positive news out of Washington over the weekend drove a relief rally to start the week and the market traded up to test the previous support (now resistance) level/region of $104–107k. Through $107–108k we expect the market to see some top side acceleration given the pivotal/choppy zone of $108–114kA break higher would suggest this part of the correction might be completed and the market could be gearing up for a fast and choppy test of the ATHs. We ultimately think that this would give way to a larger and more sustained correction since we see the larger-cycle as corrective (albeit flat corrective) for the coming monthsIf we fail to break $107k that would suggest the market wants to retest the $100k support and we have a more “pure” break down target closer to $95k, but given lows have printed on a $98k handle already we have been within a whisker of that level already. We would think that re-tests at or below $100k from here are opportunities to buy delta into, carefully and calmly in a fashion that gives plenty of room in case the downside runs on stops / liquidations before the bigger turn comes in
Market Themes
Wobbly week for risk assets as the US government shutdown extended, with fears of the extended impact on the US economy. On top of this, despite a fairly solid round of US corporate earnings, concerns began to arise around the stretched levels of AI valuations, particularly given the heavy spend and investment being made by some of these companies to continue the development and integration of AI e.g. Meta … what if at the end of all this spending the technology doesn’t produce the revenues priced in? Ultimately so far the investments have been paying dividends, so partly this aspect of the price action felt like narrative chasing on what was probably just a healthy correction given the extended rallies some of these names have had so far this yearCrypto has been underperforming risky assets (and Gold) all year and found itself in a vulnerable position with the broader turn in risk assets. BTC finally plunged through $100k, though selling flows were well absorbed in the $98–100k range, while ETH tested down towards $3k before also finding some support. The end of the Government shutdown and the likelihood of another Fed cut in December (especially given the impact on US economy from the recent shutdown) should ultimately support risk assets from here into year end and this may bring a relief rally, but after a challenging year and high opportunity cost in the space, it still feels like a ‘high risk low reward’ asset in the absence of any crypto-specific catalyst, and therefore may find itself vulnerable should an unexpected turn in risk assets occur once more before year end
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols broadly traded sideways this week as realised volatility remained in the low-mid 40s (on a high frequency basis), justifying this newer implied vol base that we have reset to. Implied vols initially dipped early in the week before finding some support as spot broke $100k. However with no follow through below that key level, implies drifted lower into the weekend before finding support again into the new week as spot had a quick rally off the lowsThe term structure of implied vols has begun to steepen out as the short-term realised begins to wane with spot establishing itself in a range and no immediate catalysts to trigger a change. Directional players (looking at topside) have shifted positioning to December onwards expiries to allow more time for the market to digest the recent price action
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices broadly moved deeper for puts on the break of $100k but having found decent support there and then exhibiting a quick relief rally on the US govt shutdown lifting over the weekend, skew prices began to move less deep for puts as tactical call buyers emerged. Structurally the spot-vol correlation remains clear (higher implied/realised vol on lower spot) as BTC becomes more correlated with traditional equity/risky assets in this behaviourConvexity prices moved lower as spot retraced into the broad $104–112k range, after a brief visit below $100k. Vol of vol remains high but ultimately the market seems to be finding equilibrium at this newer price range for now having tested and found strong support at $98–100k, any material break of $98–117k broad range will trigger some repricing of risk reversals structurally and bring convexity back into play
Good luck for the week ahead!

Makro aktīvi pagājušajā nedēļā piedzīvoja grūtības, ar Nasdaq, kas cieta no sliktākā nedēļas zaudējuma kopš Atbrīvošanas dienas aprīlī, ko ietekmēja bažas par deflācijas AI burbuli un vāju ekonomisko datu.

Neskatoties uz to, ka tas ir '2. līmeņa' datu izlaidums, pagājušās trešdienas Challenger atlaižu ziņojums šokēja tirgus dalībniekus ar lielāko oktobra mēneša pieaugumu kopš 2003. gada (+153k, 99k mēnesī), ar atlaižām, ko galvenokārt izraisījusi privātā sektora darbība. Detalizēti dati parādīja, ka vairāk nekā 30% samazinājumu bija noliktavās, kam sekoja 22% tehnoloģijās. Lai gan dati var būt trokšņaini un (vēl) nav apstiprināti ar oficiālāku algu skaitļu dēļ valdības slēgšanas, izlīdzinātie vidējie rādītāji parāda, ka pastāv saistība ar pieteikumiem, tirgi, visticamāk, sāks pievērst lielāku uzmanību darba datiem nākamajās nedēļās, ņemot vērā acīmredzamo palēnināšanos.

Ņemot vērā, ka ASV valdība joprojām ir slēgta, pagājušās nedēļas galvenais notikums bija ar FOMC, kur viņi viltīgi pieviltu tirgus balodi, jo Pauels iebilda pret pilnīgi novērtēto decembra samazinājumu, sakot, ka tas ir "tālu no" "neizbēgama secinājuma". Neskatoties uz 25bp procentu samazinājumu, Pauels norādīja, ka starp komiteju ir "spēcīgi atšķirīgas viedokļu", ar aptuveni pusi komitejas atbalstot kumulatīvo 75bp samazinājumu Q4, un otra puse iebilst. Turklāt valdības slēgšana padarīja ekonomikas prognozēšanu vēl grūtāku nekā parasti, un Fed gāja tik tālu, ka ieteica, ka viņi varētu būt "uzmanīgi", gaidot decembra sēdi, lai redzētu, vai turpmāks samazinājums ir pamatots.

Galvenie rādītāji: (27Oct 4pm HK -> 3Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -7.3% ($115,600-> $107,200), ETH/USD -12.1% ($4,200 -> $3,690)
Tirgus turpina svārstīties $104/105-$115/116k diapazonā, kamēr reālā svārstīgums paliek paaugstināts, pat ja absolūtie diapazoni samazinās — tas liecina, ka tirgus cenšas atrast līdzsvaru, apjucis par atšķirību starp kriptovalūtu un tehnoloģijām/augsta beta vienas akcijas un uztraucoties par iespēju, ka zelts/dārgmetāli varētu piedzīvot būtisku korekciju uz leju no šejienes. Tehniski mēs gaidām vēl vienu leģi uz leju, lai pabeigtu šo plakanā korekcijas leģi (pirmais no potenciālā 3-leģu plakanā vairāku mēnešu (gadu?) korekcija), bet mēs varētu redzēt, ka diapazons svārstās uz priekšu un atpakaļ vēl dažas sesijas / nedēļas uz priekšu.

Atslēgas rādītāji: (6. okt 16:00 HK -> 27. okt 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -6.4% ($123,450-> $115,600), ETH/USD -7.5% ($4,540 -> $4,200)
Tirgus mums ir devis diezgan skaidru un acīmredzamu viļņa B augsto punktu ap $126k, un kopš tā laika ir pavadījis lielāko daļu pēdējo 2 nedēļu, pārbaudot atbalstus no $109–104k, lai gan tagad atkal pārbauda pretestību pie $114.5–117.5k līmeņa. Mūsu viedoklis ir tāds, ka tas, visticamāk, ir 2. viļņi no 5. lielākā virziena uz leju zem $95k, taču, ņemot vērā grūtības, ņemot vērā 11. oktobra straujo kritumu, pastāv risks, ka esam pārgājuši uz ilgstošāku korekciju, kas varētu vēlreiz pārbaudīt viļņa B augstos punktus (pirms koriģēšanas uz leju). Atbalsts šeit līdz $109k un tad vēlreiz pie $107k un $105–104.5k, kamēr augšpusē sākotnējā galvenā pretestība pie $117.5k pirms $121–125k smagākas pretestības.

ASV akcijas pirmdien sasniedza jaunu rekordaugstu līmeni, ko vadīja Nasdaq ar +1,6% pieaugumu un SPX pieaugumu par 1%. Optimisms par vēl vienu it kā Ķīnas-ASV tirdzniecības darījumu, bullish pozicionēšana pirms Mag-7 peļņas, un cerības uz vēl vienu mīkstu Fed sanāksmi veicināja riska noskaņojumu.


Krustojuma aktīvu volatilitāte ir atkal samazinājusies līdz rekordzemu līmeni, jo investori ir atgriezušies riska pozīcijās, kamēr globālās akcijas, iespējams, veic būtiskus uzlabojumus ar Šanhajas indeksa izlaušanos no 10 gadu lejupslīdes tendences.

Mikroekonomika noslēdza nemierīgu nedēļu ar spēcīgu noti, ar vēl vienu ‘TACO’ no prezidenta, jo viņš publiski atzina, ka augstās nodevas par Ķīnu nav “ilgtspējīgas” un ka viņš patiešām tiksies ar prezidentu Hsi divu nedēļu laikā, kā to norādījusi Finanšu ministrija Bessent un viņa komanda.

Turklāt vēl viena ceturtdaļa spēcīgāku nekā gaidīts rezultātu banku peļņas ziņā palīdzēja nomierināt dažas no privātā kredīta bažām pēc First Brands bankrota un subprime auto kreditora atskaitījuma (Tricolor, $170M atskaitījums), pat neskatoties uz to, ka Džamijs Dimons biedējoši paziņoja, ka “Un es, iespējams, to nevajadzētu teikt, bet, kad jūs redzat vienu prusaku, visticamāk, ir vēl vairāk. Tāpēc mums vajadzētu — ikvienam būtu jābūt brīdinātam par šo.” attiecībā uz vairāk kredītu defektiem nākotnē.

Worst liquidation day since FTX.. $19bln (or much more) in PNL wiped out from ADL (auto-deleveraging) algorithms across CEXs… altcoins touching zero as market-maker support evaporated… There’s probably no need for us to regurgitate on what was a brutal Friday close for crypto traders and macro investors alike.

The China-US trade truce came to a sudden end as President Trump unended the calm with an exasperated response to the Chinese renewed export controls, which is unprecedented in its complexity and comprehensiveness. A US/Japan long-holiday weekend provided unfortunate timing as markets flash crashed into the Friday close, leading to a -4% drop in the Nasdaq and an instant wipeout across many altcoins.

In response, the crypto community was quickly introduced to the ‘ADL’ mechanism, aka Auto Deleveraging or ‘maintenance margin’ in the TradFi world. While logical in theory, auto stop-losses do not work well in gap-down markets when liquidity becomes discontinuous and prices ‘gap down to zero’ in an order-book vacuum. Traders often forget that market makers disappear in one-way markets as price discovery evaporates, and the auto-develeveraging ends up ‘hitting the first’ bid regardless of how low it is, creating negative “reflexivity” (or convexity) as prices accelerate to the downside.

To make matters worse, a significant jump in data traffic overloaded exchange infrastructure, which further confounded the auto-liquidation mechanisms with delayed data feeds and congested orders. However, this problem wasn’t limited to just the major CEXs, but was also seen in leading DEXs such as Hyperliquid, which ‘led’ the liquidation leaderboard with over $10bln of capital wiped out on-chain on a 24-hour basis. Liquidity vacuums are agnostic to whether your capital is on-chain or not, unfortunately.

In the TradFi world, this is mitigated somewhat by the presence of circuit breakers, which would have shifted some of the pain buy asset holders onto the exchange operators, which would require a reserve / insurance fund similar to FDIC for banks. However, that would lead to less leverage available to CEX traders as costs of trading increases (which is one reason why crypto exchanges can offer more trading leverage than say, CME), and also goes against the ‘24/7’ continuous markets that crypto traders value highly.
As with all things though, all decisions come with a trade-off, but we imagine that this wipe-out will lead to a lot of renewed discussions on infrastructure investments if crypto were to continue to be institutionalized.

Looking ahead, markets have bounced a bit on Monday due to a lack of further escalation from both the US and China sides, and also due to long-weekend holidays in Japan and US markets. While the overriding view is that the recent escalation is a mere bargaining chip ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting (now in question), we believe that the longer term impact is for the macro decoupling theme to have massively accelerated. The enhanced rare metals ban is a non-trivial escalation, and highlights the declining effectiveness of any US tariff retaliation.
In the short-run, the consensus view is for both sides to dial down the temperature (as they have over the weekend), and asset prices to see a short-term repreieve. Nevertheless, we are concerned over any significant altcoin recoveries this time around, given the deep critical PNL damage, and BTC-focused rally YTD which has left many native investors behind.

With the US government still shut and US economic data in a semi-blackout phase, markets are expected to remain extremely choppy this week with views subject to change on a whim. With systematic and momentum funds still highly invested, we would keep an eye out on any sustained rise in IVs to drive derisking flows from that community. Of course, any sudden tweets or announcements from either administration could turn the situation 180 at any time, so it’s probably best to keep risk as light as possible over the next few days.
Stay safe everyone.

Key metrics: (22Sep 4pm HK -> 6Oct 4pm HK)
· BTC/USD +9.2% ($113,000 -> $123,450), ETH/USD +8.6% ($4,180-> $4,540)

A very sharp and fast move back to test and make new highs in the past week, after probing down to $108k on the month/quarter end rebalances the week prior. Technically, the (extended?) flat correction we have been looking for appears to have begun playing out. Given the price action is broadly consistent with our long term levels, we continue to think a flat correction is the most probable dynamic here and with that we think a high could be made around $129–130k; beyond that we will need to revisit this move as it becomes increasingly likely to be part of a progressive move. We expect good support on pull-backs initially to $120–118k, but any moves below that could signify that we are moving into our eventual expected more aggressive Wave C correction lower (below $100k)
Market Themes
It’s been an eventful two weeks for crypto as the highly anticipated month/quarter-end rebalancing flows pushed BTC to lows around $108k and ETH briefly below $3.9k, while SOL had a vicious retrace after failing at $250 and printing down to $190. However this all quickly reversed as soon as we entered ‘Uptober’, with a quick rally up to the previous highs of $117.8–118k (which held after Jackson Hole and FOMC) triggered some short stop losses, and eventuated in a test and break of ATH for BTC, briefly above $125k. Much of this is attributed to a ‘catch-up’ play with Gold pushing fresh highs on a daily basis given the US government shutdown and the accelerating fears of sticky inflation in a world where most G10 central banks are cutting rates. Equities also shook off some heaviness around the month-end rebalance with lots of positivity continuing around AI and data centre investments
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Despite the large range of the moves in the past two weeks, traversing $113k->$108k->$125k, realised volatility on a high frequency basis has been rather subdued in the 25–35 range. Ultimately we haven’t seen any discontinuous gap moves as spot liquidity remains ample in the broad range for now, while the market seems to trade long gamma locally with an increase in supply of gamma from overlay/treasury strategies seen in recent weeks, again helping to contain moves locally
The lacklustre realised vol offset the usual risk premium reflation we would expect to see on higher spot/range break, resulting in a broadly static implied vol curve for expiries 1 month and out. Front-end implieds have rallied significantly given the unexpected moves over the weekend, though with spot finding a level for now around $123–124k and realised still remaining subdued, we could expect a correction lower in those expiries quickly. With the US government shutdown, variance for NFP and CPI data remains ‘floating’ given the uncertainty around their release date, and given the inversion of the curve we prefer owing 31Oct expiries to cover those data points and FOMC
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices retraced from their deep pricing for puts over the past 2 weeks, as fears of a plunge below $100k quickly abated when spot buying flows resumed once the month/quarter end rebalances were done. While realised volatility has been muted on the topside, the market is seeing some demand for calls and also remains cognisant of a continuation of momentum on the topside to ‘price discovery’ levels that could result in more volatility. Against that, it’s clear the ‘riskier’ side for this asset is on the downside and with funding rates picking up/leverage beginning to build, the market is also wary of the downside flush and for this reason we haven’t seen skew prices push into positive territory yet (outside of very short dated expiries)
Convexity prices moved lower towards the end of last week as the market was supplied with some wings via call-spread demand. Also the market is perhaps pre-positioning for some fresh overlay topside supply at these levels of spot and thus keeping a lid on implied levels for topside. Against that some opportunistic supply of wing downside on higher spot has also provided further supply. One thing worth noting is that a clean break either side from here of $115–130k would likely see a sharp reprice in levels of skew (i.e. bid for calls above $130k vs bid deeply for puts below $115k), so there is some risky gamma dynamics that offer value to the flies from here
Good luck for the week ahead!