The Market Updates

Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.

ASV kriptovalūtu tirgus struktūras likums.

Baltais nams vēlas, lai abas puses līdz 2026. gada februāra beigām panāktu kompromisa valodu, ar stabilās valūtas ienesīgumu kā galveno jautājumu, kas kavē likumu.

Pārstāvju palāta jau ir pieņēmusi CLARITY likumu 2025. gada 17. jūlijā. Kopš tā laika likums ir iestrēdzis, jo Senāts nevar vienoties par vienu jautājumu:

Vai stabilās valūtas turētājiem jāļauj gūt ienākumus?

KODOLS CĪŅŠ IR STABILĀKĀ VALŪTA IEGULDĪJUMS

Bankas redz, ka ienesīgas stabilās valūtas ir tiešs drauds noguldījumiem. Banku tirdzniecības grupas brīdināja, ka līdz pat $6.6 triljoniem kopienas banku noguldījumu varētu būt apdraudēti, ja ienesīguma likums paliks atvērts.

Truflation rāda, ka ASV inflācija ir tuvu 0.68%, kamēr atlaišanas, kredītu nokavējumi un bankrotu skaits pieaug, tomēr Fed joprojām saka, ka ekonomika ir spēcīga.

Ja paskatāties uz ekonomiku šobrīd un salīdzināt to ar to, ko Fed publiski saka, ir ļoti skaidra atšķirība.

Fed turpina atkārtot, ka darba tirgus joprojām ir spēcīgs. Bet reālie dati par atlaišanām, pieņemšanas palēnināšanos un algu tendencēm stāsta citu stāstu.

Mēs jau redzam plaisas, kas veidojas zem virsmas. Darba tirgus nesabrūk uzreiz, bet tas skaidri vājina ātrāk, nekā to norāda oficiālās paziņojumi.