Crypto Puma

Most traders focus solely on price (the "what"), but they ignore the volume (the "why"). According to Bill Williams, relying on standard moving averages or indicators like RSI is dangerous because they are based on linear statistics that do not apply to the chaotic nature of markets

Here are the key takeaways on how to analyze Volume and Price correctly:
1. Price is the Advertisement, Volume is the Fuel
You should view the market mechanism simply:
• Price is just an advertisement. It calls out a value.
• Volume is the fuel. It is the energy required to make the market move.
• Momentum is the speed at which the market moves.
If the price moves (the ad is placed) but there is no volume (no fuel), the movement is a "Fake" and will likely reverse.
2. The Validity of Tick Volume
Many traders ignore volume in futures or crypto because they think "tick volume" isn't "real volume."
• Fact: Williams found that tick volume correlates with actual volume more than 90% of the time.
• It is the only real-time information available to traders that tells them "who is running the show". A change in tick volume always precedes a change in momentum and trend.
3. Replace Simple Averages with MFI (Market Facilitation Index)
Instead of just looking at where price is relative to an average (like VWAP), Williams suggests measuring market efficiency using the MFI.
• Formula: MFI=VolumeRange (High−Low)​
• What it tells you: It measures how many points the market traveled per "tick" of volume.
• The Goal: You want to see if the volume entering the market is actually effectively moving the price.
4. Reading the "Profitunity Windows"
By combining Volume and MFI, you can instantly read the market's intent:
• Green (+Vol, +MFI): The market is moving, and volume is increasing. This is a solid trend (like a "Green Light").
• Squat (+Vol, -MFI): Volume is high, but price movement (MFI) has slowed. This is a battle between buyers and sellers and often signals a reversal or a major breakout. It is the strongest potential money-maker.
• Fake (-Vol, +MFI): The market is moving effortlessly, but there is no volume. This is often market manipulation and should be viewed with skepticism.
💡 Key Lesson for Traders:
Don't just ask "Is the price up?" Ask "Is the fuel (volume) supporting this move?" If you see a price breakout on low volume (a "Fake"), or a stalled price on high volume (a "Squat"), the trend is likely about to change.

Turtle Soup is one of the most effective reversal setups introduced by Linda Raschke. It forms when the market fakes a breakout through an important level and instantly snaps back, trapping breakout traders and stop-hunters. The idea is simple: price briefly violates a key support or resistance, usually only with a wick, then closes back inside the range, revealing that the breakout was completely false. This behavior marks a high-probability reversal area because the market has just cleared liquidity and rejected extreme prices.





It works because most traders place stops right below old lows or above old highs. When the market sweeps those levels, liquidity surges, giving larger players the perfect opportunity to fill positions in the opposite direction. Once they’ve taken that liquidity, price quickly reverses, leaving breakout traders trapped and fueling momentum back into the previous range. It’s a clean, repeatable pattern built entirely on market psychology and liquidity behavior.


You can recognize Turtle Soup when a clearly defined level has been tested multiple times, the breakout occurs only as a wick, price instantly closes back above or below the level, RSI often confirms extreme conditions, and the market continues in the opposite direction right after the trap. Turtle Soup avoids catching falling knives — it waits for the stop-hunt, the liquidity grab, and only then aligns with the smart money.

Pillars of Discipline: Mastering Your Mental Game
1. Embrace Loss Acceptance: The Cost of Doing Business
The Principle: Effective trading is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Losses are inevitable and must be viewed analytically—as a learning opportunity and a statistical cost—not a personal failure.

Actionable Step: Develop the ability to cut losing positions quickly. Protecting your capital and mental stability is equally, if not more, important than chasing profits.

2. Avoid the "Revenge Trading" Trap
The Principle: The most dangerous mistake is the impulse to "make back" a loss immediately. These impulsive actions, fueled by anger or ego, almost always lead to further, catastrophic financial setbacks.

Actionable Step: When you hit your daily loss limit, log off. Separate yourself from the screen to reset your emotional state.

3. The Unwavering Stop Loss (SL)
The Principle: The Stop Loss is your ultimate safety mechanism. It pre-defines the maximum acceptable loss for any trade, turning an uncertain outcome into a calculated risk.

Actionable Step: Execute your SL orders automatically and consistently. Your analysis of the trade idea is invalidated the moment price hits your SL level. Accept it and move on.

4. Do Not Tie Results to Self-Worth
The Principle: Many traders fail because they link their P&L (Profit & Loss) to their self-esteem. The market does not care if you were "right."

Actionable Step: Treat every trade objectively. Analyze losses to extract valuable market data. Focus on process consistency, not individual trade outcomes.

5. Warning: Automatic Liquidation Risk
The Principle: Overconfidence, ignoring established risk limits, or impulsive leverage usage can lead to a margin call or automatic position liquidation by your broker—especially in volatile crypto markets.

Actionable Step: Always define your risk size (position sizing) so that even if your SL is hit, the loss is only a small percentage of your total trading capital.

Final Trader's Rule: "The consistency you seek is in your mind, not in the markets." – Mark Douglas.

Success is built on the methodical execution of a proven plan. Stay disciplined. Stay profitable. 🔥

Three Pillars of Effectiveness:
Trading success requires a combination of three fundamental skills, forming an inseparable whole: mastering proven trading strategies, maintaining discipline in risk control, and possessing the ability to master one's emotions. The absence of any one of these pillars leads to the destabilization of the entire trading process.

The Crucial Role of the Stop-Loss Order:
The most critical aspect of risk management is precisely defining your exit point. This means consistently utilizing protective stop-loss orders, which allow you to limit losses during unpredictable market movements. History has shown that ignoring this principle can lead to losses far exceeding those initially anticipated.

The Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R):
 It is essential to adhere to a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, such as 1:2 or better. This approach enables the systematic growth of capital over the long term, even if a portion of your trades result in a loss.

Discipline and Acceptance of Losses:
Effective risk management requires self-control and strict adherence to your strategy. The ability to accept losses and promptly close unprofitable positions is indispensable. An approach based on trying to "recoup" losses often leads to further errors and is one of the most dangerous pitfalls for an investor.

Who controls the market: Bulls or Bears?

Price Action (PA) analysis monitors the ongoing conflict between buyers (Bulls) and sellers (Bears). Buyers strive to acquire assets at the lowest price, hoping for future gains. Sellers seek the highest price to realize profits. The price movement reflects their collective psychology, driven by the hope for profit and the fear of loss. Your primary job as a professional day trader is to determine which group dominates the market at any given moment.

Ievads

Kriptovalūtu tirgus plaukst uz emocijām, un memekoini ir tīrākais šīs realitātes atspoguļojums.

Atšķirībā no tradicionālajiem projektiem, kas balstīti uz tehnoloģiju vai lietderību, to vērtība bieži vien nāk no interneta popularitātes un vīrusu uzmanības.

Dažreiz viens tvīts var pārvietot miljardus dolāru.

Divi perfekti piemēri? Dogecoin, 2021. gada bull run ikona, un Floki, šodienas atgādinājums, ka vēsture atkārtojas.




Kā sociālie mediji ietekmē tirgus reakcijas


Vīrusu ziņa piesaista uzmanību un piesaista jaunus dalībniekus tirgū.

CME plaisa ir cenu plaisa, kas rodas nākotnes līgumos, kas tiek tirgoti Čikāgas preču biržā (CME), visbiežāk Bitcoin un citās kriptovalūtās. Tā veidojas, kad jauna sesija sākas ar cenu, kas atšķiras no iepriekšējās sesijas noslēguma cenas.

Kā veidojas CME plaisa

CME nākotnes līgumiem ir noteikti tirdzniecības laiki, un parasti tie ir slēgti brīvdienās.

Kriptovalūtas spot biržās tiek tirgotas 24/7, tāpēc cenas var ievērojami mainīties slēgšanas laikā.

Kad nākotnes līgumi atkal tiek atvērti, plaisa parādās starp pēdējo noslēguma cenu un jauno atvēršanas cenu.

Kriptovalūtu tirgus ir viens no visstraujāk augošajiem finanšu laukumiem pasaulē. Tās decentralizētā daba un relatīvi zema regulācija padara to par aizraujošu spēļu laukumu tirgotājiem, investoriem un institūcijām. Tomēr šī brīvība nāk arī ar tumšāku pusi: cenu manipulācija. Lai gan lielākā daļa mazumtirdzniecības tirgotāju uzskata, ka cenu svārstības ir dabiskā piedāvājuma un pieprasījuma rezultāts, patiesība bieži ir sarežģītāka.

Kas ir cenu manipulācija?

Cenu manipulācija notiek, kad neliela grupiņa spēcīgu spēlētāju — bieži sauktu par “vaļiem” vai institūcijām — apzināti virza tirgu noteiktā virzienā. Mērķis ir vienkāršs: ievest mazumtirdzniecības tirgotājus zaudējošās pozīcijās un pēc tam gūt peļņu no viņu likvidācijām.

Ievads: Makro skatījums uz BTC/USDT $BTC

Šis raksts analizē pašreizējo makro struktūru Bitcoin (BTC/USDT), izmantojot jaudīgu kombināciju no Elliott viļņu teorijas un Smart Money konceptiem (SMC), lai definētu kritiskos pagrieziena punktus, augstas varbūtības mērķus un riska zonas.
Mūsu analīze koncentrējas uz Dienas (D1) laika posmu, lai identificētu galveno svārstību struktūru, kas noteiks ilgtermiņa stratēģiju un augstas pārliecības svārstību tirdzniecību.

1. sadaļa: Elliott viļņu plāns

Ilgtermiņa BTC diagramma liecina, ka mēs esam dziļi milzīgā bullīšu ciklā, pabeidzot spēcīgu 4-bullīšu viļņu struktūru. Galvenā gaida ir pēdējā impulsa viļņa veidošanās, Viļņš (5).