Was just looking at the liquidation heatmap for Bitcoin and the imbalance is hard to ignore.
After wiping out billions in longs on the way down, the book now looks heavily tilted the other way, with a massive stack of short liquidations sitting above price compared to very little fuel left below. About $25B in shorts!
That kind of positioning does not guarantee an instant move up, but it does tell you where the pain is likely concentrated if momentum shifts.
In environments like this, price often moves toward the side with the most trapped traders. It would not surprise me to see volatility expand and fast moves in both directions, but structurally the risk of a squeeze higher grows when so many are leaning the same way.
Still a market driven by liquidity hunts, not emotions. Manage risk, but stay aware of where the pressure is building.
Many people expect markets to rally in 2026. But they are WRONG. Stocks, crypto, and real estate are at risk. There will be panic like nothing we’ve seen before. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST know what’s coming next: 1⃣ THE CRASH The U.S. economy is already weakening: → Layoffs are rising → Bankruptcies are increasing → Credit defaults are building → Housing demand is collapsing → Home sellers far outnumber buyers Because of this, a market correction in the next 2–3 months is very possible, similar to Q1 2025. If that happens: → S&P 500 could fall 10%–15% → Nasdaq could fall 15%–20% Crypto won’t decouple. It will fall harder, with potential capitulation. 2⃣ THE BLAME During the downturn, Trump is expected to shift blame to Powell. And possibly the Supreme Court if tariffs are blocked. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, making him an easy target. The narrative will be clear: → Powell didn’t cut rates → Powell kept policy tight → Powell didn’t inject liquidity as markets weakened The goal is to ensure Powell does not remain on the Board of Governors after his term as Chair ends. Trump knows that if Powell stays, he could still influence policy and complicate decisions for Kevin Warsh. 3⃣ THE EASING Once Powell exits and Kevin Warsh becomes Fed Chair, easing begins. Warsh has already signaled openness to tools like yield curve control, capping long-term yields and lowering borrowing costs. Cheaper borrowing = more liquidity. More liquidity = higher asset prices. At the same time, other liquidity drivers could align: → A potential $2,000 tariff dividend → Large tax cuts → Approval of pro-crypto laws like the CLARITY Act The objective is clear: support stocks and crypto. 4⃣ THE ELECTION U.S. midterm elections are in Q4 2026, and betting markets currently show Republicans losing ground. If markets are rising and cash is flowing to consumers, election odds can shift quickly. Once prices move higher, markets forget the pain. Dividend checks and tax cuts boost small business earnings. Powell becomes the convenient scapegoat for prior damage. The sequence: Early 2026 → Correction + blame Powell Mid 2026 → New Fed + liquidity easing Late 2026 → Market recovery into elections The next few months may be rough. After that, accumulation begins with a stronger rally into Q3–Q4 2026. I’ve been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade. And I’ll do it again in 2026. Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.
Today’s meeting was described as productive, but no agreement was reached.
What changed: banks arrived with written “prohibition principles” and, for the first time, acknowledged the possibility of limited exemptions for transaction based rewards. That’s a meaningful shift from earlier positions.
The core divide remains: 🔹 Crypto wants broad definitions of “permissible activity” 🔹 Banks want those definitions narrowly constrained
Tone is softening. The room was smaller. Negotiations went deeper.
Next steps: 🔹 Industry talks continue in the coming days 🔹 White House urging a deal by March 1 🔹 Senate Banking staff now directly involved