RecodeX

📡 Hourly News Brief | 07:00-08:00

1. Putin and Trump spoke by phone, reiterating their inclination toward a political solution to the Ukraine issue, emphasizing that Russia’s fundamental principles must be taken into account. Trump said he is willing to facilitate a ceasefire.

2. Buyers of Trump-branded encrypted tokens have accumulated losses of $3.8 billion. The TRUMP token is down 96% from its peak, and 85% of secondary-market wallets for the WLFI token are in a loss position.

3. Wang Yi met with Jacob von Wallenberg, Chairman of the Board of the Swedish company Silver & Rydder Group, in Stockholm. He called on Swedish businesses to help bring bilateral relations back onto a healthy development track.

4. The U.S. Department of Defense has launched a strategic reserve program for lithium carbonate. Over five years, it plans to procure 16,200 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate to replenish defense stockpiles, with a contract value of up to $300 million.

5. In the first half of this year, 92 new international air cargo routes were opened nationwide, mainly to and from Europe and Asia. The cargo mix is primarily cross-border e-commerce and high-end manufacturing.

6. Prices for PC and memory hard drives have remained at a high level. Dealers recommend that those who don’t have urgent needs should not buy, and it is expected that prices will not fall for at least a year.

7. Deloitte Tohmatsu Cheng says AI is a long-term dividend. Enterprise digital transformation has entered the “agentic collaboration” stage, and the large-scale rollout of intelligent services is expected to surge after 2028.

8. The U.S. FDA issued an import alert against Wahaha for a tea beverage after it tested positive for saccharin.

📡 8-hour Recap | July 05, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have fluctuated amid a mix of multiple geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data. The U.S. and Iran announced they will pause negotiations for a week; meanwhile, Bitcoin surged back strongly and broke above $63,000, helping the sentiment in the crypto market rebound. At the same time, fundraising and product updates in the AI sector remain active, with major players such as Anthropic and NVIDIA making frequent moves.

Geopolitics

1. U.S. President Trump said both sides of the U.S.-Iran talks have decided to pause negotiations for a week, until the end of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s funeral. During this period, neither side will exchange fire. Trump said Iran is “begging for a deal.”

2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. The Russian forces claim they control four residential areas in Kharkiv Oblast and have proposed a ceasefire in Konstantinovka to hand over the bodies of the dead. Zelensky spoke by phone with Trump and agreed to meet during the NATO summit.

3. Iran’s intelligence service said it has eliminated four armed groups linked to the U.S. and Israel, and also plans to charge service fees for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in line with international standards.

4. Netanyahu plans to visit the White House next week to meet with Trump. Trump said he “knows who the boss really is.”

5. The death toll from the earthquake in Venezuela rose to 2,954, with another 16,592 injured. In Portugal, wildfires burned over 10,000 hectares, and the country requested support from the European Union.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rose above $63,000. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network totaled $239 million, with long liquidations being the main impact. Analysts expect a rebound to $70,000 in July, supported by weak employment data.

2. Sui’s mainnet peak TPS surpassed 6 million. Cardano, driven by expectations for the Ouroboros Leios upgrade, rose 12%. XRP rose more than 3% to return to $1.13.

3. Deutsche Sparkasse Bank and cooperative banks will open cryptocurrency trading services to 50 million customers, boosting optimistic market sentiment. Binance’s user base surpassed 300 million, reaching 323 million.

4. Nearly one million investors suffered losses of $3.8 billion due to the Trump meme coin; retail losses were severe. LAB tokens surged more than 150% in a single day, severely hurting short sellers.

AI and Technology

1. Anthropic launched its own in-house AI chip development and is in talks with Samsung for contract manufacturing. OpenAI, citing regulation and high energy costs, paused its UK data center project and also started an in-house chip program.

2. NVIDIA launched the NVIDIA HORIZON and ASPIRE frameworks, extracting a portion of customer cloud business revenue shares, and promised backup funding support for emerging cloud providers.

3. ByteDance is making market progress in Hollywood with its Seedance video generator and plans to roll out Seedance 2.5. Kuaishou’s AI+ module, “Kuaishou Open Platform for AI,” received $3 billion in financing.

4. Microsoft’s Xbox business faces strategic adjustments. Layoffs are expected next week to focus more on profit growth.

Macroeconomics

1. In the U.S., the number of full-time jobs in June decreased by 514,000 to 133.66 million, the lowest level since December 2024. It has fallen for three consecutive months, with a total decline of 2.24 million since January.

2. Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar will not weaken significantly in the near term and raised its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. is moving toward unprecedented economic growth.

3. China’s express delivery volume has already exceeded 100 billion this year, 9 days earlier than last year. Shandong’s “new three items” exports in the first five months reached 6.11 billion yuan, up 27.7% year over year.

Market Sentiment and Key Focus

Market sentiment has been swinging between expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and weak macroeconomic data. The crypto market sentiment has been more optimistic due to institutional inflows and rebound trading, but geopolitical risks (the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine conflict) remain the main uncertainties. Key focus: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, whether Bitcoin can hold above $63,000, the AI chip competition, and next week’s NATO summit.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 06:00-07:00

1. This year, China’s express delivery volume has exceeded 10 billion parcels, reaching the figure 9 days earlier than last year, reflecting steady progress in the consumer market.

2. In the first five months, Shandong’s exports of the “new three” sectors totaled RMB 6.11 billion, up 27.7% year-on-year, with photovoltaic products up 89.3%.

3. New Jersey in the United States has reported 19 suspected deaths related to high temperatures, including young adults; health authorities urge people to beat the heat.

4. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected performance assessment tests of the “Kang Kyoung” destroyer’s combat system, ordering it to be handed over to the Navy within two months for commissioning.

5. Bitcoin has risen to $62,626. Analysts expect it may rebound to $70,000 in July, supported by soft employment data.

6. Israeli strikes on northern and central Gaza resulted in two Palestinian deaths, with many others injured.

7. Zelensky held a phone call with Trump, agreeing to meet during the NATO summit.

8. The excitement around the World Cup has driven a surge in trading volumes in prediction markets by $5.6 billion, and at some exchanges, nearly half of the new users are participating for the first time.

📡 Top-of-the-hour briefing | 05:00-06:00

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a 1-hour-25-minute call with U.S. President Donald Trump. Putin invited Trump to visit Russia, and Trump said he is willing to continue mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Trump. The two agreed to hold an in-person meeting during the NATO summit.

3. The Russian side responded to Zelensky’s meeting proposal, saying that Konstantinovka is fully under control. It welcomed Zelensky to go to Moscow to make “major decisions.”

4. Israel carried out attacks on Mansuri and Talusa in southern Lebanon, and tensions in the region remain high.

5. Microsoft’s Xbox business is facing a strategic adjustment. It is expected that layoffs will be carried out next week, with a greater focus on profit growth.

6. An outfit designed by Ai Weiwei (design) sparked discussions in the fashion industry about the application of artificial intelligence in clothing design and its impact on genuine creativity.

7. Indonesia is failing to properly enforce restrictions on social media for users under 16. Technology companies are ignoring the rules, and teenagers can still access platforms.

8. Iraq approved research for a strategic oil export pipeline project’s preliminary agreement, involving a consortium including U.S. companies such as Capital TI and Chevron.

📡 Hourly Update | 04:00-05:00

1. Portugal’s ongoing wildfires have burned over 10,000 hectares, and the country has requested assistance from the European Union. Spanish firefighters have arrived to help put out the blaze.

2. Wildfires across multiple states in the western United States are raging. Around 40 large wildfires are out of control. The situation in Colorado is the most severe, with more than 160 buildings destroyed.

3. Anthropic has released a Claude Science test version. NVIDIA has launched the NVIDIA HORIZON and ASPIRE frameworks. Mistral AI has released Leanstral 1.5. ByteDance plans to roll out Seedance 2.5. OpenAI may release GPT-5.6 next week.

4. Lebanon’s health authorities said that since the fighting reignited, the death toll has reached 4,303 and 12,202 people have been injured.

5. Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. dollar will not weaken significantly in the short term, and has raised its forecast for the USD to Japanese yen exchange rate.

6. Bitcoin has broken through $63,000. Ripple led major coins with a 5% gain over 24 hours, but purchasers of Trump’s cryptocurrency tokens are currently at an unrealized loss of $3.8 billion.

7. U.S. Vice President Vance criticized successive UK leaders for letting the country down, and urged that the next prime minister bring change.

8. The Iraqi cabinet approved preliminary agreements for the strategic export pipeline project in Basra, to be signed by the Basra Oil Company and consortia including Chevron.

📡 Hourly News Report | 03:00-04:00

1. Zelensky discusses the front-line situation with Trump in a phone call, saying there are genuinely attainable prospects for ending the war, and they agreed to continue talks during the NATO summit.

2. A meeting between a Lebanese official and Iran’s foreign minister emphasizes Iran’s important role in protecting Lebanon’s sovereignty and bringing an end to Israel’s aggression.

3. Trump makes controversial remarks, saying that Europe’s acceptance of third-world criminals will cause it to become a third-world country.

4. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appoints Ali Ouzmaei as the new commander of the navy.

5. The Israeli military says a person died inside Lebanon’s “security zone,” and Netanyahu’s trip to the U.S. has yet to be determined.

6. After falling below support, the LAB token price surged by more than 150% in a single day, dealing a heavy blow to short sellers.

7. Wildfires in Portugal continue to spread, with the burned area exceeding 10,000 hectares. Portugal has requested assistance from the European Union, and Spanish firefighters have arrived to help.

8. Bitcoin ETFs performed weakly last week, but Ethereum ETFs became one of the few bright spots.

📡 Hourly News | 02:00-03:00

1. U.S. officials say the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz remains navigable; in recent days, about 50 vessels have passed through, while Iran has attempted to intimidate ships via radio.

2. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake has risen to 2,954, with another 16,592 people injured.

3. Netanyahu is expected to visit the U.S. soon to meet with Trump; both the U.S. and Iran have agreed to pause negotiations for one week.

4. Bitcoin has returned above $63,000. In July, it has gained $4,000. XRP is up more than 3% back above $1.13, and technical indicators show a rare buy signal.

5. Binance’s user base has surpassed 300 million to reach 323 million, becoming the first cryptocurrency exchange to achieve this milestone.

6. On the U.S. Independence Day (250th anniversary), white supremacist groups held a protest on Capitol Hill.

7. Russia is willing to continue developing a strategic partnership with Iran. Military experts say Putin is betting on a war of attrition to wear down Ukraine and the West.

8. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent says that under Trump, the U.S. is moving toward unprecedented economic growth and lasting dollar dominance.

📡 On the Hour Bulletin | 01:00-02:00

1. US President Trump announced that the US and Iran have decided to suspend negotiations for one week, until the end of Hamenei’s funeral, during which neither side will engage in hostilities.

2. Iran’s intelligence service said it has eliminated four armed groups associated with the United States and Israel, with operations taking place across multiple cities including Zahedan.

3. Russia’s Ministry of Defense proposed that Ukraine stop shelling Kostiantynivka in order to hand over the bodies of the fallen, while Ukraine has not yet responded.

4. Bitcoin has returned to the $63,000 level. The price of Cardano is expected to rise by 12% due to anticipation of the Ouroboros Leios upgrade.

5. Deutsche Bank Savings and Cooperative Bank will open crypto trading services to 50 million customers, boosting market optimism.

6. New South Wales in Australia has detected H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza for the first time, bringing the cumulative confirmed cases to six.

7. Hundreds of alleged members of a white supremacist organization marched in Washington, chanting “Take back America.”

8. China has issued new policies to support cinemas in transitioning into comprehensive cultural experience venues, promoting the “sell-the-scenario” model.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 00:00-01:00

1. The farewell ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran was held in Tehran, with millions of people taking part in mourning and chanting anti-American slogans.

2. Russia and Ukraine carried out large-scale mutual strikes. The Russian military said it has taken control of four settlements in Kharkiv Oblast and attacked 142 areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure.

3. Trump said the U.S. and Iran decided to pause talks for a week. During Khamenei’s funeral, neither side will fire, and Netanyahu may visit the White House next week.

4. Investment and financing markets were active. AI infrastructure drew in capital: Kuaishou’s Lingxi AI (Kuaishou Ke Ling AI) raised $3 billion, and SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds.

5. The number of full-time jobs in the U.S. fell in June by 514,000 to 133.66 million, the lowest since December 2024, with declines for three consecutive months.

6. Crypto markets were volatile. Sui’s mainnet peak TPS topped 6 million, and nearly one million investors lost $3.8 billion due to Trump meme coins.

7. OpenAI paused its UK data center project due to regulatory issues and high energy costs, and began developing its own AI chips, while also talking with Samsung about contract manufacturing.

8. Iran plans to charge service fees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz according to international standards, to ensure safety and environmental protection.

📡 Hourly News Update | 23:00-00:00

1. A trader closed a position at a stop loss after failing to short five times in a row, losing $3.5 million within three days, highlighting the high risks of leveraged trading.

2. Turkish President Erdoğan said that Israel must not obstruct the U.S.-Iran agreement, stressing that without support from regional countries, maintaining peace in the Middle East is impossible.

3. Nvidia will take a portion of cloud business revenue from some customers, promising to provide funding as a backstop for emerging cloud providers in exchange for the right to repurchase idle GPUs.

4. Bitcoin has broken above $63,000. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market reached $239 million, with the biggest surge in short positions; market sentiment is strongly bullish.

5. Russian President Putin signed amendments to the tax law, allowing the production of high-octane fuel for use in vehicles and subsidizing importers to address a fuel crisis following attacks on oil refineries in Ukraine.

6. ByteDance’s Seedance video generator—leveraging low price, high realism, and a timeline prompt feature—has made progress in Hollywood.

7. Wang Yi met with Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström, emphasizing that China-Sweden relations are warming up and moving in a positive direction, and hoping Sweden will uphold the One-China principle.

8. The next round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will be held on the 11th. They will discuss issues such as frozen funds and nuclear matters. Trump said Iran is very eager to reach an agreement.

📡 Daily News Roundup | July 04

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have been choppy amid a mix of factors, including a cooling macro data backdrop, escalating geopolitical risks, and an accelerating industry transformation in AI. Surprise weakness in the U.S. non-farm payrolls data has dampened expectations of further rate hikes; the U.S. dollar logged its biggest weekly drop since April, supporting a rebound in gold and Bitcoin. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have remained elevated, with heightened safe-haven sentiment driven by disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the same time, AI and semiconductor financing activity has been strong, and the domestic chip replacement trend is becoming clearer—though a signal worth watching is rising memory chip prices alongside signs of tightening tech companies’ spending. Overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, as investors focus on next week’s U.S.-Iran negotiations and non-farm payrolls revisions.

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📊 Global Macros

1. U.S. June non-farm employment data came in unexpectedly weak, cooling market expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. The dollar index is likely to post its largest weekly decline since April, while the euro and pound have strengthened. Allianz’s chief economist warned that the Fed may have to raise rates again in September, as inflation is expected to peak at above 3.7%.

2. The central bank announced that on July 6 it will conduct a RMB 1,000 billion (10 trillion yuan) buyout-style reverse repo operation with a 3-month term to keep ample liquidity in the banking system. Domestic refined oil prices recorded the largest single drop this year, with cuts of more than RMB 900 per ton.

3. Germany’s draft budget for 2027 plans to add borrowing of more than €203 billion, with defense spending rising to €130.1 billion, to address economic weakness and geopolitical risks. ECB President Christine Lagarde will unusually attend next week’s meeting of EU finance ministers in person.

4. Extreme heat has swept across the U.S. Northeast and Midwest; more than 185 million people are under heat alerts. PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, triggered a Level 2 energy emergency alert, and spot electricity prices in Northern Virginia broke above $2,500 per MWh.

5. Brazil’s June trade surplus expanded to $9.758 billion, with year-on-year increases in both soybean and iron ore export volumes. In the first half of the year, the issuance size of perpetual (Tier 2) debt by commercial banks exceeded RMB 1 trillion, led mainly by state-owned institutions.

💰 Crypto Market

1. After a streak of ten consecutive days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $221 million for the first time again. Bitcoin rebounded to $62,300, hitting a nine-day high. However, Coinbase’s negative premium reached the longest record, indicating softer demand in the U.S. market. If Bitcoin falls below $59,371, the liquidation force for accumulated long positions on major centralized exchanges would reach $1.174 billion.

2. Mega-whale activity is intensifying market volatility: Chun Wang deposited 9,876 ETH into Binance (about $17.02 million), seemingly preparing to sell; the government of Bhutan deposited 700 Bitcoins into Binance (worth about $43.75 million), possibly signaling a reduction of holdings. Another whale bought $37.7 million worth of ETH and WBTC within three days, reflecting bullish sentiment from institutional investors.

3. Trump’s financial disclosures show that in 2025 he earned over $600 million in revenue from the $TRUMP meme coin; its share of total revenue has already surpassed the combined total from real estate and licensing businesses. Around one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion on Trump-themed token speculation, highlighting the risks of betting on cryptocurrencies tied to political figures.

4. European fintech Revolut announced it will stop supporting USDT on August 31, citing that Tether has not obtained MiCA authorization, as stablecoin regulation tightens. German domestic banks will gradually roll out their own cryptocurrency trading services for customers.

5. On the Solana chain, the Meme coin ANSEM has surpassed $350 million in market cap, setting a new all-time high. The total amount of tokenized real-world assets on Solana hit a new record of $3.62 billion. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings’ unrealized loss narrowed to $11.5 billion.

🤖 AI and Tech

1. China’s AI industry is at a turning point: ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are shifting toward domestic chips, with domestic GPU share in new deployments rising to 41%. Lingyi AI from Kuaishou completed its first round of fundraising of $3 billion, with post-investment valuation around $18 billion, with investments from Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and others.

2. Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly developed the world’s first memristor neuromorphic dynamics chip. It is 478 times faster than NVIDIA GPUs, and the achievement was published in the journal *Science*. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy released the first agent for discovering AI superconducting materials—Elements Claw—筛选 2.4 million crystal structures within 28 GPU hours.

3. Samsung plans to raise the average DRAM selling price by 20% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, and has already orally notified some customers. Meanwhile, Samsung Foundry’s 4nm capacity is nearly sold out. The surge in memory chip prices has triggered a collective consumer lawsuit in the U.S., accusing Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron of driving prices up by about 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM production capacity.

4. The embodied intelligence track is heating up: Unitree Technology’s IPO registration on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been approved, and the China market size in 2026 is expected to reach RMB 1.09 trillion. CEO of LeXiang Technology believes the embodied intelligence field could produce an Apple-level company.

5. Tesla announced that starting July 6 it will cap employees’ weekly AI tool spending at $200, but the use of xAI’s Grok model will not count toward the cap—reflecting a trend of U.S. tech firms tightening AI spending. After Hongbo Co. saw its share price surge 7x on AI-theme stock hype, it later plunged 80% due to performance fraud and internal strife.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. Middle East tensions remain high: Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising concerns about global oil shipping. Iran warned countries such as the UK and France not to take military action in the Strait of Hormuz, and appointed Ali Azmaei as the new commander of the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. U.S. media disclosed internal details of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement: Iran’s president and the head of the central bank jointly urged the supreme leader, saying the economic situation is severe and a maritime blockade would cause food and medical supplies to run out by the end of August.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russia said Moscow was hit by a large-scale attack involving more than 200 drones—one of the most severe in nearly two years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine conducted long-range strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. Putin said Russian forces have fully “liberated” Luhansk and gained “strategic initiative.”

3. North

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📡 8-Hour Recap | 07月04日 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, geopolitical tensions have remained high, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating (a large-scale drone attack on Saint Petersburg) and the situation in the Middle East becoming more complex (Iran warns about the Strait of Hormuz, and behind-the-scenes details of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire agreement come to light) taking center stage. Volatility in the crypto market has intensified: Bitcoin ETF fund flows reversed direction, but analysts warned of near-term risks. Meanwhile, the AI sector saw a major breakthrough—Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences developed a memristor chip with speeds far beyond Nvidia GPUs.

Macroeconomy

1. China’s express delivery business volume has already exceeded 100 billion parcels this year, 9 days ahead of last year, reflecting steady growth in the consumer market.

2. Domestic refined oil prices saw the largest single drop in nearly 6 years: gasoline and diesel were cut by over 900 yuan per ton. Experts expect oil prices may continue to fall through October.

3. Three departments issued guidance to standardize the registration of international science and technology organizations, clarifying the establishment conditions and application procedures.

4. In Shenzhen, robot export revenue for the first four months reached 4.03 billion yuan, accounting for 25.5% nationwide; products are sold to more than 100 countries and regions worldwide.

5. Many places are rolling out “one vehicle, one code” for ride-hailing; by July 15, Jinan will achieve full coverage of compliant vehicles.

Crypto Market

1. After ten consecutive days, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221 million for the first time, and prices rebounded. However, Coinbase’s negative premium hit its longest record, indicating weakening demand in the U.S. market.

2. Data show that if Bitcoin falls below $59,371, the liquidation intensity of accumulated long positions on major centralized exchanges could reach $1.174 billion; in the short term, bearish sentiment is likely to intensify.

3. About one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion by investing in Trump-themed tokens, highlighting the speculative risks of politically related cryptocurrencies.

4. European fintech giant Revolut announced it is delisting USDT because Tether has not received MiCA authorization; stablecoin regulation is tightening.

5. A German domestic bank plans to gradually roll out its own crypto trading services for customers, which may drive trading momentum.

AI Technology

1. Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences developed the world’s first memristor neuromorphic dynamics chip. Its speed is 478 times faster than Nvidia GPUs, and the achievement was published in the journal Science.

2. Doubao and Tongyi Qianwen announced that, due to adjustments in product functionality, their agent features will be taken offline on July 15, 2026; DeepSeek is doubling the price of API peak-hour slots because it is cooperating with Zhejiang Province’s time-of-use electricity pricing policy.

3. Tesla announced that starting July 6 it will limit employees’ weekly AI tool spending to $200, but use of xAI’s Grok model will not count toward the limit—reflecting a trend of U.S. tech companies tightening AI spending.

4. In the first half of the year, Korean retail investors’ net purchases of China’s A-shares related to AI exceeded $2.8 billion, showing rising global interest in China’s AI industry.

5. Hongbo Co., Ltd. saw its stock price soar 7x thanks to AI-concept shares, but then plunged 80% due to performance fraud and internal conflicts—becoming a typical case of a bubble bursting in A-share theme speculation.

Geopolitics

1. Russia says Moscow was hit by a large-scale attack involving over 200 drones, one of the worst in nearly two years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine carried out long-range strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure.

2. Iran warned extra-territorial countries not to create crises in the Strait of Hormuz, and appointed Ali Azmaei as the new naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

3. U.S. media disclosed details behind the Iran-U.S. ceasefire agreement: Iran’s president and the central bank governor jointly advised the supreme leader, saying the economic situation is severe and a maritime blockade would cause food and medical supplies to run out by the end of August.

4. A roadside check post of a coast guard unit in Balochistan, Pakistan, was attacked with a car bomb, killing four security personnel and injuring 16.

5. The Iran-U.S. talks are planned for July 11 in Pakistan to discuss sanctions, frozen funds, and nuclear issues.

Commodities and Macro

1. The Iran-U.S. peace agreement released more than 60 million barrels of trapped crude oil, raising global concerns about oversupply, and causing oil prices to fall across the board.

2. A research note from JPMorgan said the bullish gold trend has ended; movements in the gold price largely hinge on actions by the Federal Reserve. It lowered its average price forecasts for the third and fourth quarters to $4,300 and $4,500 respectively.

3. Wildfires are raging across multiple western U.S. states. About 40 large wildfires across the country are out of control. In Colorado, the “Aspen Acres” wildfire has burned 297 square kilometers.

Market Sentiment Summary: Overall sentiment is cautious. Rising geopolitical conflicts and increased volatility in the crypto market are boosting investors’ risk-avoidance, but structural opportunities are emerging from AI chip breakthroughs and falling oil prices. Keep an eye on subsequent Iran-U.S. negotiations and changes in Federal Reserve policy.

📡 Hourly News | 22:00-23:00

1. The US and Iran have reached a peace agreement, leading to the release of more than 60 million barrels of trapped crude oil. This has raised concerns about a global supply glut. Oil prices have fallen across the board, and institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have warned that the market faces the risk of an oversupply next year.

2. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Al Araghchi, met separately in Tehran with representatives of Hezbollah and Hamas from Lebanon, as regional geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to run high.

3. After ten consecutive days, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $221 million for the first time. The price rebounded, while the US M2 money supply hit a record high, reigniting expectations of upside momentum driven by liquidity.

4. Sweden’s Prime Minister Kristersson met with Wang Yi. Wang Yi said that China–Sweden relations need to strengthen dialogue, build mutual trust, and that the Swedish side should adhere to the One-China principle.

5. Shenzhen’s robot exports reached RMB 4.03 billion in the first four months, accounting for 25.5% nationwide. They are sold to more than 100 countries and regions around the world.

6. Anjie Technology acquired a 51% stake in the optical module business of Suzhou Zifeng for a base consideration of RMB 204 million, with the deal funded using an Earnout clause.

7. Cross-strait direct flights between Kaohsiung and Ningbo resumed one after another. One-way flight time was shortened to about two hours, greatly improving travel efficiency.

8. A “giant whale” using 10x leverage to short XPL saw part of the position liquidated. The remaining position is down by $145,000 unrealized loss, highlighting the risks of high leverage.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 21:00-22:00

1. Many places are rolling out “one vehicle, one code” for ride-hailing services. By July 15, Jinan will achieve full coverage of compliant vehicles, in order to eliminate chaos and illegal operations.

2. Shenzhen’s robotics exports in the first four months totaled 4.03 billion yuan, accounting for 25.5% nationwide. Products are sold in over 100 countries and regions worldwide.

3. The U.S. and Iran plan to hold negotiations in Pakistan on July 11 to discuss sanctions, frozen funds, and nuclear issues.

4. Iran’s security authorities have dismantled four hideouts linked to the U.S. and Israel involving “terrorist and extremist organizations,” arresting five members and seizing large quantities of weapons.

5. This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $526.1 million. After employment data came in weaker than expected, the price of Bitcoin saw a modest rebound.

6. Russia’s Ministry of Defense says it has gained control of five settlements in eastern Ukraine and is currently clearing Ukrainian forces from Lyman.

7. The State Post Bureau has conducted research at the headquarters of major express-delivery companies including SF Express and YTO Express (Yuan Tong). It has sent five signals: reducing “cutthroat competition,” standardizing performance evaluation, and safeguarding the rights and interests of delivery workers.

8. Direct flights between Kaohsiung and cities such as Ningbo across the Taiwan Strait have resumed one after another, with one-way flight times reduced to about 2 hours.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 20:00-21:00

1. Iran warns countries outside the region not to create crises in the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will respond seriously to any military actions that threaten the safety of the waterway, and appoints Ali Azmai as the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

2. Tesla announces that starting July 6 it will cap employees’ weekly spending on AI tools at $200, but using xAI’s Grok model will not count toward the limit, reflecting a trend of U.S. tech companies tightening AI expenditures.

3. U.S. media reveals details behind a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The Iranian president, together with the head of the central bank, urged the supreme leader to approve the deal, citing severe economic conditions and saying a naval blockade would lead to food and medical supplies running out by the end of August.

4. Data shows that if Bitcoin falls below $59,371, the total liquidation intensity of long positions on major centralized exchanges will reach $1.174 billion. The UK’s new crypto regulatory framework faces challenges in implementation due to high compliance costs.

5. Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly developed the world’s first neuromorphic chip based on memristors, with a speed 478 times faster than NVIDIA GPUs. The achievement has been featured in the journal Science.

6. Doubao and Tongyi Qianwen announce that due to product feature adjustments, the agent functionality will be discontinued on July 15, 2026. DeepSeek doubles the API price during peak hours in response to Zhejiang Province’s time-of-use electricity pricing policy.

7. A report from JPMorgan states that control over gold pricing has returned to the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the short term, the market faces pressure due to rate-hike risks, but in the long run it is expected to be bullish, reaching an average of $4,775 per ounce in 2027.

8. Data center operator Crusoe is currently in talks to raise $3 billion, with its valuation potentially rising to $30 billion. Zhipingfang has secured nearly RMB 5 billion in financing, and Keling AI has completed nearly $3 billion in financing.

📡 Hourly Bulletin | 20:00-21:00

1. Iran warns countries outside the region not to create crises in the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will seriously respond to any military actions that threaten the safety of the waterway, and appoints Ali Azmaei as the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

2. Tesla announced that starting July 6 it will cap employees’ weekly spending on AI tools at $200, but usage of xAI’s Grok model will not count toward the limit, reflecting a trend among U.S. tech firms to tighten AI expenditure.

3. U.S. media disclosed details behind the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal. Iran’s president and the head of the central bank jointly advised the Supreme Leader, saying the economic situation is grave and that a maritime blockade would lead to food and medical supplies running out by late August, ultimately leading to approval of the agreement.

4. Data shows that if Bitcoin falls below $59,371, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on mainstream centralized exchanges would reach $1.174 billion. The UK’s new crypto regulatory framework faces implementation challenges due to high compliance costs.

5. Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly developed the world’s first memristor neurodynamic chip. It is 478 times faster than NVIDIA GPUs, and the achievement was featured in Science.

6. Doubao and Tongyi Qianwen announced that due to adjustments to product functions, the agent feature will be taken offline on July 15, 2026; DeepSeek doubled API peak-hour pricing in coordination with Zhejiang Province’s time-of-use electricity pricing policy.

7. A report from JPMorgan Chase indicated that the influence over gold pricing has returned to the Federal Reserve. In the short term, it is under pressure due to rate-hike risks, but in the long run it is bullish toward reaching the 2027 average of $4,775 per ounce.

8. Data center operator Crusoe is in talks to raise $3 billion, and its valuation may rise to $30 billion. ZhiPingFang has secured nearly RMB 5 billion in funding, while “Keling AI” has completed nearly $3 billion in financing.

📡 On-the-Hour Update | 19:00-20:00

1. A car bomb attack hit a coastal police checkpoint in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, killing 4 security personnel and injuring 16. The terrorist group “Baloch Liberation Army” claimed responsibility.

2. China successfully launched the Qianfan Polar-orbit 13th group of satellites using the Long March 6 carrier rocket. The satellites entered their planned orbit successfully, marking the 655th launch of the Long March series.

3. Revolut, a major European fintech company, announced that it will delist USDT after August 31. The move is due to Tether not having received MiCA authorization; holdings will be automatically converted to the base currency, as regulation of stablecoins tightens.

4. A magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck Binchuan County in Dali Prefecture, Yunnan. The China Earthquake Administration initiated a Level IV emergency response to enhance earthquake monitoring and trend assessment.

5. JPMorgan Chase lowered its target gold price for Q4 2026 by about 25% to $4,500 per ounce. Near-term demand remains weak, but its bullish long-term view is unchanged.

6. In the first half of the year, about 70% of A-shares declined. Market performance was extremely polarized. A surge in AI-related investment has sparked concerns about oversupply of computing power, though advanced computing resources remain scarce.

7. Yunnan is expanding the categories eligible for “trade-in” and “buy-new” subsidies for consumer goods, adding 9 new product types such as smart door locks and drones. A subsidy of 15% of the sale price applies, up to a maximum of RMB 1,500 per item.

8. The Ministry of Water Resources has initiated a Level IV emergency response for flood defense in Liaoning and Jilin. From July 4 to 6, localized rainfall amounts in the two provinces may exceed 100 millimeters.

📡 Hourly News Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Russia says Moscow was hit by a large-scale attack involving more than 200 drones—one of the most serious in nearly two years. Ukraine has not responded yet.

2. A public farewell ceremony for Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was held in Tehran. It is expected that 15 to 20 million people will attend.

3. About one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion after investing in Trump-themed tokens, highlighting the speculative risks of cryptocurrencies tied to political figures.

4. A research report from JPMorgan Chase says the bullish run in gold has ended. Gold’s direction depends mainly on Federal Reserve actions, with forecasts for the third and fourth quarter average prices lowered to $4,300 and $4,500.

5. Huawei has released the AI-FAN architecture to drive home broadband upgrades to 10 gigabits, enabling AI-powered network intelligence.

6. Guangdong Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2 achieved grid connection for the first time, with commercial operation expected in the second half of 2026.

7. The National Meteorological Center has issued six alerts. Typhoon “Maysak” is expected to land along the coast of Guangxi, with torrential to extremely heavy rainfall in Guangxi, Guangdong, and other areas.

8. German domestic banks will gradually roll out trading services for their own cryptocurrencies to customers, which may spark a surge in trading activity.

📡 Top-of-the-hour bulletin | 17:00-18:00

1. Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms that Ukraine conducted remote strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure and military targets near Saint Petersburg; Russia says 72 drones were intercepted.

2. Wildfires ravage several states in the western United States. Across the country, around 40 major wildfires have gotten out of control. In Colorado, the “Aspen Acre” wildfire has burned 297 square kilometers, and more than 160 buildings have been destroyed.

3. Domestic refined fuel prices see the largest single drop in nearly six years. Gasoline and diesel are lowered by more than 900 yuan per ton; experts expect fuel prices may continue to fall until October.

4. A magnitude 4.4 earthquake strikes Binchuan County in Dali Prefecture, Yunnan. The epicenter depth is 10 kilometers. No major impact has been reported.

5. Data show that 20% of active Bitcoin investors are in an unrealized loss. The market has entered a mildly devaluation phase, and bearish sentiment is intensifying in the short term.

6. Two major AI platforms, Doubao and Qianwen, announce that they will shut down the agent feature on July 15 in response to the implementation of the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Human-Like Interactive Services by Artificial Intelligence.”

7. China’s first fixed-wing aircraft for comprehensive atmospheric environmental observation, the “Yun-12F Atmospheric Comprehensive Aeromapping Aircraft,” makes a successful maiden flight in Harbin.

8. Hongbo Co., Ltd. saw its share price surge sevenfold after riding on an AI concept stock wave, but then plunged 80% due to alleged falsification of performance and internal infighting, becoming a typical example of a burst A-share theme-stock bubble.

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 16:00-17:00

1. This year, China’s express delivery volume has exceeded 100 billion parcels, reaching that figure 9 days earlier than last year, reflecting steady growth in the consumer market.

2. Russia says St. Petersburg was hit by a large-scale drone attack, with 72 drones intercepted. The oil terminal was struck, but there were no casualties.

3. In the first half of this year, individual investors in South Korea net-bought more than $2.8 billion worth of Chinese A-shares related to AI, showing rising global interest in China’s AI industry.

4. Mali’s military says several major towns were attacked by rebel fighters, with clashes occurring at five locations.

5. The UK and France will cooperate with Oman to help ensure the safety of its territorial waters navigation, and will adjust their military deployments in the Middle East.

6. China-made air conditioners are selling extremely well in Europe due to extreme heat. Brands such as Gree, TCL, and Hisense have reportedly expedited replenishment orders.

7. Three departments have issued guidance to regulate the registration of the establishment of international scientific and technological organizations, clarifying establishment requirements and application procedures.

8. Bitcoin needs to add roughly $1 trillion in liquidity to support the next bull market, and Coinbase’s negative premium has set its longest record.