KaiZXBT

BITCOIN’S 4-GADU CIKLS NAV MIRIS — TAS NORISINA TIEŠI PAREIZI.

Paskatieties attālināti, ignorējiet troksni un aplūkojiet ceļa karti, ko Bitcoin ir sekojis vairāk nekā desmit gadu laikā.

Ilgtermiņa grafiks sniedz vienu no tīrākajiem signāliem kriptovalūtās:

Cikla augstuma laiks:

→ 2012

→ 2017

→ 2021

→ 2025 ielādējas…

Katrs augstums ir noticis aptuveni 1,420–1,450 dienu attālumā — gandrīz kā pulkstenis.

Un pēc katra augstuma viena brutāla patiesība atkārtojas:

2012 augstums → -79% sabrukums

2017 augstums → -81% sabrukums

2021 augstums → -75% sabrukums

Tā pati struktūra. Tāds pats laiks. Tā pati makro psiholoģija.

Tātad, kad cilvēki saka “Šoreiz ir citādi,” grafiks saka:

Nē — šoreiz ir tāpat. Un nākamais lielais augstums tiek sakārtots 2025. gadam.

Ja vēsture atkārtojas, mēs ienākam pēdējā paātrinājuma fāzē.

Palieciet koncentrēti. Palieciet stratēģiski.

Reālā kustība vēl nav pat sākusies.

#CYCLE

Chainlink vs. Filecoin: Token nào có tiềm năng tăng trưởng lớn hơn cho quý 1 năm 2026?

Filecoin (FIL) hiện đang dẫn đầu nhóm token liên quan đến AI và dữ liệu lớn về mức độ hoạt động phát triển, theo dữ liệu được Santiment công bố trên nền tảng X. Xếp ngay sau là Chainlink (LINK), trong khi Internet Computer (ICP) đứng ở vị trí thứ ba. Santiment cho rằng các dự án duy trì cường độ phát triển cao thường có lợi thế dài hạn trong việc thu hút người dùng và xây dựng nhu cầu token bền vững.

Ở chiều ngược lại của thị trường, dữ liệu từ các tool check onchain cho thấy LINK đang ghi nhận lực mua đáng kể từ các ví lớn. Đáng chú ý, một ví dự trữ của Chainlink đã bổ sung hơn 94.000 LINK, phản ánh mức độ tin tưởng ngày càng tăng từ nhóm nhà đầu tư quy mô lớn, bất chấp bối cảnh altcoin vẫn còn nhiều biến động.

Với Filecoin, đà phục hồi ngắn hạn đang thu hút sự chú ý khi FIL tăng gần 20% chỉ trong một tuần. Một số nhà phân tích lưu ý rằng FIL thường có xu hướng tăng mạnh trong quý I hằng năm, làm dấy lên kỳ vọng về một nhịp hồi tương tự khi bước sang năm 2026. Tuy nhiên, xét trên khung thời gian lớn, xu hướng dài hạn của FIL trong năm 2025 vẫn là giảm, với vùng 3 USD tiếp tục đóng vai trò kháng cự then chốt.

Trong khi đó, LINK duy trì cấu trúc giá ổn định hơn trên khung tuần, dù các chỉ báo khối lượng cho thấy phe bán vẫn chiếm ưu thế. So sánh tương quan, Chainlink hiện được đánh giá là lựa chọn kỹ thuật an toàn hơn so với Filecoin. Dù vậy, với nhóm token AI, nhà đầu tư vẫn cần thận trọng, quản trị rủi ro chặt chẽ và tránh đặt cược quá lớn vào các kịch bản phục hồi ngắn hạn.

Vitalik Buterin: Ethereum tiến gần phá vỡ “bộ ba bất khả thi” với ZK-EVM và PeerDAS

Vitalik Buterin cho biết Ethereum đang tiến gần tới việc phá vỡ bộ ba bất khả thi của blockchain khi kết hợp hiệu quả giữa băng thông cao, cơ chế đồng thuận và tính phi tập trung. Theo Vitalik các ZK-EVM hiện đã đạt hiệu suất cấp độ triển khai thực tế (alpha), trong khi PeerDAS đã chính thức hoạt động trên mainnet Ethereum, giúp mạng lưới mở rộng đáng kể khả năng xử lý dữ liệu.

Vitalik kỳ vọng giới hạn gas cho các non-ZK-EVM sẽ tiếp tục được nâng cao, đồng thời các node ZK-EVM sẽ bắt đầu xuất hiện từ năm 2026. Xa hơn, trong giai đoạn 2027–2030, ZK-EVM nhiều khả năng trở thành phương thức xác thực block chủ đạo của Ethereum.

Bên cạnh đó, Vitalik nhấn mạnh việc xây dựng khối phân tán (distributed block building) vẫn là mục tiêu dài hạn, nhằm giảm rủi ro tập trung hóa và cải thiện tính công bằng về mặt địa lý cho toàn bộ mạng lưới Ethereum.

Vitalik Buterin: Ethereum is close to breaking the “impossible trinity” with ZK-EVM and PeerDAS.

Vitalik Buterin stated that Ethereum is nearing the "impossible trinity" of blockchain technology by effectively combining high bandwidth, consensus mechanisms, and decentralization. According to him, ZK-EVMs have now achieved alpha-level performance, while PeerDAS is officially live on the Ethereum mainnet, significantly expanding the network's data processing capabilities.

Vitalik expects the gas limit for non-ZK-EVMs to continue to increase, and ZK-EVM nodes to begin appearing from 2026. Furthermore, between 2027 and 2030, ZK-EVM is likely to become Ethereum's primary block validation method.

In addition, he emphasized that building a distributed block remains a long-term goal, aiming to reduce the risks of centralization and improve geographical fairness across the entire Ethereum network.

Daily transactions on Ethereum reached an all-time high, surpassing even the NFT craze of 2021.

On-chain data shows that the Ethereum network is closing out 2025 with record-high activity levels, despite the less-than-positive ETH price trend. According to The Block, the 7-day moving average of Ethereum transactions reached 1.87 million on December 31st, surpassing the historical peak of 1.61 million in May 2021 and the most recent high recorded in August 2025.

Simultaneously, the number of active addresses also surged, reaching nearly 729,000 — the highest since the NFT and DeFi boom of 2021. Notably, Ethereum recorded over 270,000 new addresses in a single day, the highest level since 2018, indicating a return of new users to the network.

Technical upgrades are driving usage growth.

According to analysts, the main driver comes from a series of upgrades in 2025, particularly Pectra and Fusaka. These upgrades help reduce transaction costs, improve scalability, optimize wallet experience, and strengthen Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap. Increased gas limits and advancements in zkEVM also contribute to expanding processing capacity without putting pressure on node infrastructure.

Outlook for 2026

In 2026, Ethereum is expected to continue implementing major upgrades such as Glamsterdam and Hegota, focusing on performance and long-term sustainability. Despite increasing competition among blockchains, much of the activity related to stablecoins, RWAs, staking, and DeFi still revolves around Ethereum and the EVM ecosystem. According to experts, the discrepancy between current usage levels and price movements may be quietly laying the groundwork for a future breakout.

USD1 season officially kicks off: WLFI activates strategic fund to boost ecosystem.

The USD1 season has officially begun, and the growth momentum is undeniable. Market capitalization is steadily rising, trading volume on exchanges is surging, and more and more meme projects and new projects are choosing USD1 as their underlying liquidity layer. This is a significant milestone for the entire ecosystem.

To celebrate this milestone, WLFI will activate a portion of its strategic reserve fund with a clear objective: to support developers, creators, and innovative tokens that are directly strengthening and expanding the USD1 ecosystem. This resource will be used to drive development, increase reach, and unlock sustainable growth opportunities.

Beyond financial support, WLFI also provides well-deserved recognition, bringing outstanding individuals and projects to global attention. Together, we will show the world the true power, creativity, and potential of the USD1 community.

$ZEC Technical Analysis

Zcash (ZEC) bounced back above the 50-day SMA ($474) on Saturday, but higher price levels are attracting selling pressure.

The area between the moving averages and the ascending trendline is a crucial support zone to watch. If the price bounces strongly from this support zone, the bulls will attempt to break through the resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $574. If successful, the ZEC/USDT pair could surge to $648.

This bullish scenario will be invalidated in the short term if the Zcash price continues to fall and breaks below the ascending trendline. In that case, the pair could fall to $371.

$DOGE Technical Analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the $0.12 mark on Wednesday, but the bears were unable to sustain the decline.

Bulls pushed the price back above the $0.13 breakout zone on Thursday, but are struggling to hold higher levels. If the price reverses and breaks below $0.12, it would indicate that bears have turned the $0.13 mark into resistance. In that case, DOGE/USDT could slide back to the October 10th low around $0.10.

Conversely, if the price bounces and breaks above the 50-day SMA at $0.14, it would suggest the market has rejected the previous bearish breakout. Dogecoin could then advance towards the $0.16 region.

$SOL Technical Analysis

Solana (SOL) has risen to the 50-day SMA at $131. However, the long wick of the candle suggests that the bears are defending this area very aggressively.

However, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that selling pressure is weakening. Bulls will continue their efforts to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If successful, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $147.

Conversely, if the price reverses downwards from the moving averages and breaks below $116, it indicates that bears are still in control of the market. In that case, SOL could fall to $108 and then to $95.

$XRP Technical Analysis

XRP has been closely following the 20-day EMA at $1.90 for the past few days, increasing the likelihood of a breakout to the upside.

If this happens, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the descending trendline. Although there is resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2.02), this level is likely to be breached. However, bears are expected to strongly defend the descending trendline. If the price reverses sharply from here, XRP could continue to fluctuate within the price channel for some time.

Conversely, the $1.61 mark is a key support zone. If broken, XRP could enter a new downtrend, heading towards the October 10th low around $1.25.

$BNB Technical Analysis

The bears are trying to defend the 50-day SMA at $873, but the positive sign is that the BNB bulls are still maintaining upward pressure.

This increases the likelihood of the price advancing to the $928 region, where bears are likely to intervene. If the bulls break through this barrier, the BNB/USDT pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern, with the pattern targeting $1,066.

Conversely, if BNB reverses and breaks the ascending trendline, it indicates that the bulls have surrendered. A new downtrend could then begin if the price closes below $790.

$ETH Technical Analysis

Ether (ETH) is still fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting market uncertainty about the next trend.

If the closing price is above the 50-day SMA at $3,007, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the pattern's resistance line. Bears are expected to defend aggressively at this point, as a break could open up an upward momentum towards $4,000.

Conversely, if the price reverses downwards from the resistance line, it suggests ETH may remain trapped within the triangle. Bears will regain control if the closing price falls below the support line.

$BTC Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $86,400 to $90,600 for the past few days. Typically, such periods of tight consolidation lead to a strong breakout.

The 20-day EMA is moving sideways around $88,500, and the RSI is fluctuating near its average, indicating that supply and demand are in balance.

If the bulls push the price above $90,600, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $94,589. This is a crucial resistance level that the bears need to defend, because if the price closes above this level, Bitcoin could advance to $100,000 and even further to $107,500.

Conversely, the bears will gain the upper hand if the price reverses and breaks through the $86,400 mark, increasing the risk of breaking the $84,000 support zone.

Grayscale files for Bittensor ETP launch, paving the way for TAO ETF in the US.

According to CrowdfundInsider, Grayscale Investments has filed a preliminary application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded product (ETP) focused on Bittensor. This investment product is expected to trade under the ticker symbol GTAO, providing investors with access to TAO – the native token of the Bittensor network – through a tightly regulated framework.

The S-1 filing, due on December 30, 2025, marks the beginning of Grayscale's plan to transform its current Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF. If approved by the SEC, GTAO would become the first US-listed ETP specifically for TAO. This move demonstrates growing institutional interest in decentralized artificial intelligence infrastructure and reflects Grayscale's strategy of expanding its cryptocurrency portfolio within a regulatory framework.

Will $BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark in January? Three charts will give you the answer.

Bitcoin entered 2026 in a tug-of-war around the $88,000 mark, extending a sideways trading streak that had lasted for weeks. Outwardly, the market appeared relatively quiet, but on-chain data revealed subtle shifts taking place, particularly on the supply side.

Three indicators from CryptoQuant suggest weakening selling pressure, although macroeconomic factors have yet to create favorable conditions for a strong upward move.

Long-Term Holders Signal Accumulation

Following the correction at the end of 2025, Bitcoin has yet to regain key resistance levels due to cautious buying pressure. However, supply data from long-term holders (LTH) is starting to show positive signs. The net change in LTH supply over the past 30 days has returned to positive territory, increasing by approximately 10,700 BTC. This indicates that long-term investors have stopped distributing and are returning to accumulation, a signal often seen during bottoming-out phases.

LTH SOPR Shows Market Equilibrium

The LTH SOPR index is currently fluctuating around 1, reflecting that long-term holders are not panic selling in a loss-making state. Historically, this is often a sign that the market is finding equilibrium after a correction, rather than entering a deep decline phase.

Outflows from Exchanges Continue

Bitcoin continues to record net outflows from exchanges, thereby reducing the immediate supply available for sale in the spot market. Although prices have not recovered strongly due to limited liquidity and delayed expectations of monetary policy easing, the current supply structure is gradually becoming healthier.

Overall, Bitcoin tends to accumulate more than weaken, laying the groundwork for more sustainable upward movements in the later stages.

$UNI Analīze : Visstabilākais DeFi veterāns

Starps trim minētajiem tokeniem, Uniswap ir visstabilākais.
UNI cena pēdējo 30 dienu laikā ir palikusi gandrīz nemainīga, kas ir labāks rezultāts salīdzinājumā ar lielāko daļu citu DeFi tokenu. Uniswap arī piemīt skaidrs biznesa modelis: darījumu maksas tiek iekasētas no tirgotājiem, un daļa no šīm maksām tiek sadalīta UNI turētājiem.

Ievērojami, ka Uniswap ir iznīcinājis 100 miljonus UNI (aptuveni 596 miljoni dolāru), veicinot piedāvājuma samazināšanos un atbalstot tokena ilgtermiņa vērtību.

Vaļi arī iegādājās papildus 4,75 miljonus UNI gada beigās, demonstrējot pārliecību par pašreizējo cenu līmeni, lai gan ir pārāk agri, lai apstiprinātu, ka spēcīgs cenu pieaugums ir gaidāms.

Diagrammā $6.13 līmenis ir svarīga zona, ko uzraudzīt. UNI ir nokritusi zem šī sliekšņa, pārvēršot to par pretestības zonu. Ja UNI atgūstas virs $6.13 un turas, nākamais mērķis būtu $8.21, kas nozīmē aptuveni 45% pieaugumu.

Uniswap ir arī saistīts ar lielāku tirgus stāstu. Ja Ethereum (ETH) piedzīvo spēcīgu izaugsmi 2026. gada pirmajā ceturksnī, DeFi plūsmas parasti seko ETH vispirms, un UNI būs viens no vadošajiem tokeniem, ja tirgus sāks atgūties.

Īsumā, 2026. gads sola daudz jaunu iespēju DeFi tokeniem, it īpaši iepriekš minētajiem, ar svarīgiem cenu līmeņiem un skaidrām tirgus dinamikām. Investoriem vajadzētu rūpīgi sekot šiem attīstības procesiem, lai izmantotu potenciālās investīciju iespējas.

$ASTER : Does the Decentralized Exchange Story Live Up?

Aster is currently one of the most active perpetual futures trading platforms on the market. Perpetual futures exchanges allow users to trade futures contracts without being limited by expiration dates. High trading volume means high fees, so activity levels are crucial.

Despite ASTER's 28% drop in the past 30 days, the platform still maintains its top position in terms of trading volume.

The technical chart is forming a falling wedge pattern – meaning the price is moving within two converging trend lines. If the closing price breaks above the upper resistance line, the pattern will be complete, and a strong upward price movement is likely, with a breakout target near $1.48. Compared to the current price of around $0.69, this represents an increase of over 114%.

If the price fails to break above the wedge and continues to move within it, the downtrend is not yet truly broken. Only when the lower support line is breached will the pattern be confirmed as failed.

ASTER is a token worth watching because, despite its current price weakness, its technical structure remains intact. A single breakout trading session could reverse the situation.

Furthermore, the growth story of decentralized exchanges continues into 2026, especially with the increasing number of new users. If this trend persists, ASTER could benefit and grow instead of continuing to decline.

$ENA Analysis : An Undervalued DeFi Token

Over the past year, the price of ENA has fallen by as much as 79%, bringing it to an attractive level for investors if buying pressure returns.

Some positive signs have emerged. Arthur Hayes – a well-known trader and founder of an exchange – has begun buying ENA. Large wallets have also seen slow but steady growth. These aren't hype signals, but simply evidence that interest in ENA still exists.

On the technical chart, the $0.19 level has repeatedly acted as a strong support zone. If ENA holds this level in early 2026, the possibility of reaching $0.27 will open up, representing an increase of approximately 35% and also the first resistance zone.

Breaking through this level, the next target would be $0.53 – a medium-term price range if demand for the token remains strong.

Conversely, if the $0.19 level is breached, ENA could fall sharply to $0.13, making the token cheaper but also carrying higher risks. Currently, ENA is one of the DeFi tokens worth watching due to its discounted price range, interest from whales, and key price levels to confirm the trend.

Strategy's price plummets for the sixth consecutive month, despite still accumulating Bitcoin.

Strategy (MSTR) stock declined continuously for the last six months of 2025, for the first time since the company adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset in August 2020, according to crypto expert Chris Millas.

This rare losing streak lasted from July to December 2025, with sharp drops in August (-16.78%), October (-16.36%), November (-34.26%), and December (-14.24%). The difference is that there were no significant rebounds like in previous corrections, suggesting a more persistent revaluation process.

At the close of trading on December 31, MSTR stood at $151.95, down 11.36% for the month, 59.30% for the six months, and 49.35% for the twelve months. This performance lags far behind Bitcoin and even the Nasdaq 100, which is projected to rise 20.17% in 2025.

Notably, the decline occurred even as Strategy continued to buy more Bitcoin. On December 29, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced that the company had purchased 1,229 BTC for approximately $108.8 million. As of December 28, Strategy held 672,497 BTC, with a total expenditure of approximately $50.44 billion.

$BTC

Ethereum tiek paredzēts zaudēt vairāk nekā $100 miljonus maksājumos 2025. gadā, "nolaupītas" Layer 2 Base.

Layer-2 ieņēmumi samazinās, radot spiedienu uz ETH vērtību

Tehniskās uzlabojumi, īpaši Dencun, ir būtiski samazinājuši darījumu maksājumus un uzlabojuši mērogojamību. Tomēr tas ir novedis pie strauja Ethereum galvenā tīkla ieņēmumu krituma. 2024. gadā Layer-2 ģenerēja $277 miljonus ieņēmumu, no kuriem 41% devās uz Ethereum. Līdz 2025. gadam kopējie Layer-2 ieņēmumi tika prognozēti, ka samazināsies līdz $129 miljoniem, bet maksājumi galvenajam tīklam bija tikai apmēram $10 miljoniem.

Ilgstoši zemi maksājumi arī vājināja ETH dedzināšanas mehānismu, radot piedāvājuma atgriešanos nedaudz uzpūstā stāvoklī kopš The Merge. Tādējādi ETH zaudēja būtisku cenu atbalsta faktoru.

Base vada, vērtība centralizēta

Šī pāreja rada centralizētāku Layer-2 tirgu. Coinbase bāze tiek prognozēta, ka veidos gandrīz 60% no visa Layer-2 nozares ieņēmumiem līdz 2025. gadam, ievērojami pārsniedzot Arbitrum un citus konkurentus. Liela daļa vērtības, ko rada Ethereum ekosistēma, plūst uz Layer-2 platformām, kas spēj veikt tiešu lietotāju integrāciju, nevis tiek vienmērīgi sadalīta visā tīklā.

Ethereum dominē DeFi, neskatoties uz ETH vājumu
Neskatoties uz cenu kritumu, Ethereum ir palielinājis savu DeFi tirgus daļu līdz aptuveni 64% TVL, un vairāk nekā 70%, iekļaujot Layer-2. Tas pierāda, ka iestādes un lieli investori dod priekšroku drošībai, likviditātei un juridiskai atbilstībai pār zemu izmaksu.

Izaicinājums 2026. gadam

Ethereum kļūst par nozares noklusējuma norēķinu slāni, bet ETH tokens ir zem spiediena, jo ekonomiskie ieguvumi pāriet uz Layer-2 un lietojumprogrammām. Investoriem šis ir periods, kad jāvērtē tīkla lietderība pret tokena potenciālu vērtības uzkrāšanai. Atbalstītāji apgalvo, ka šis ir nepieciešams apmaiņas noteikums, lai Ethereum nostiprinātu savu ilgtermiņa pozīciju, lai gan ceļš, kas atspoguļots ETH cenā, vairs nebūs tik tiešs kā iepriekš.