Crypto_Paykash

Kripto tirgi pārvietojas ciklos, kas sastāv no straujas izaugsmes periodiem, kurus seko dziļas korekcijas. 2026. gada sākumā noskaņojums ir negatīvs: Bitcoin atrodas tuvu $69K pēc atkāpšanās no 2025. gada augstumiem, kamēr lielie altkoīni, piemēram, Solana (SOL), ir samazinājušies par aptuveni 40–45% gada griezumā. Vēsturiski šie pesimistiskie posmi bieži sagatavo augsni nākamajai lielākajai rallijai.

XRP šobrīd ir īpaši interesants. Tirgojoties ap $1.40–$1.60, tas joprojām ir zem 2018. gada ATH $3.65, bet tālu virs $0.20 zemākajiem rādītājiem, kas redzēti iepriekšējās lejupslīdēs. Lielais jautājums: Vai 2026. gads varētu iezīmēt cikla maiņu no lāča uz bulli?

Introduction: Why Funding and OI Matter
Most traders focus only on candles. I focus on positioning. In crypto, spot price is just the surface. The real engine behind most short-term moves is the perpetual futures market. That’s where leverage lives, where liquidations happen, and where emotional traders get trapped. If you understand funding rates and Open Interest (OI), you stop guessing and start reading the crowd.
Perpetual futures dominate crypto trading volume. That means leverage plays a major role in price movement. Moves are often fueled by aggressive positioning, and when that positioning becomes too one-sided, the market corrects it violently. Funding rates and OI give you insight into that internal structure. They tell you who is leaning too heavily in one direction, whether fresh capital is entering the market, and whether a move is organic or simply the result of forced liquidations.

Funding Rates: The Cost of Conviction
Funding rates exist because perpetual futures don’t expire. Since there’s no settlement date, exchanges use funding payments to keep the perp price anchored to the spot price. Every few hours, one side of the market pays the other. When funding is positive, longs pay shorts. When funding is negative, shorts pay longs. This payment reflects positioning pressure.
If funding is mildly positive during an uptrend, that’s healthy. It shows buyers are confident enough to pay to maintain their positions. But when funding becomes extreme, that’s when caution is necessary. Extreme funding signals overcrowding. And crowded trades are fragile because markets don’t reward consensus they exploit it.

How I Read Funding
I don’t view funding as a directional signal. I view it as an imbalance indicator. Mild funding reflects normal sentiment. Elevated funding shows growing bias. Extreme funding sustained over time signals positioning risk.
When price pumps and funding stretches aggressively positive, I’m not immediately thinking breakout. I’m thinking about how many late longs are now vulnerable to a squeeze. The same applies in reverse. Heavy negative funding combined with price strength often sets the stage for a short squeeze. Funding doesn’t predict direction; it reveals pressure.
Open Interest: The Conviction Meter
Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding contracts that are still open. It tells you whether new money is entering the market or whether positions are closing. This distinction matters.
Volume can spike because traders are closing positions, but rising OI means new exposure is being added. When OI increases, fresh positions are being built. When OI declines, positions are closing through profit-taking or liquidation. But OI alone is neutral. It must be interpreted alongside price.
The Core Framework: Price + OI
The most powerful framework is combining price and OI. If price rises and OI rises, new longs are entering the market. That behavior supports continuation. If price rises while OI falls, shorts are covering. That rally may be driven by a squeeze rather than sustainable demand.
If price drops and OI rises, new shorts are building positions, suggesting bearish continuation. If price drops and OI falls, longs are liquidating, which often signals panic and sometimes local bottoms. This framework prevents traders from confusing squeezes with real trends.
When Funding and OI Align
When funding and OI align, volatility often follows. Rising OI combined with aggressively positive funding signals long crowding. Rising OI with deeply negative funding signals heavy short buildup. When positioning becomes stretched and OI continues expanding, the market becomes unstable. Someone is trapped, and forced unwinds create the fastest moves in crypto.

In conclusion:
For me, mastering funding rates and Open Interest changed how I trade. I stopped reacting to candles and started reading positioning.
Funding shows me how expensive the crowd’s bias has become. Open Interest shows me whether that bias has real conviction behind it. When I combine both with price, I’m not guessing I’m assessing pressure.
In a leverage driven market, price doesn’t move randomly. It moves toward stress, toward liquidations, toward maximum pain. If you track funding and OI consistently, very few moves will truly surprise you.
#CPIWatch

Bitcoin ir spiedienā. Pēc tam, kad 2025. gada beigās tas pieauga virs 126 000 USD, aktīvs ir krities vairāk nekā par 50%, īslaicīgi pieskaroties 60 000 USD zonai, pirms stabilizēšanās ap augsto - $BTC 60Ks līdz zemo - $70Ks. Bailes dominē tirgū, likvidācijas ir pieaugušas, un daudzi īstermiņa turētāji saskaras ar būtiskiem zaudējumiem.
Bet pieredzējušiem investoriem šī vide ir pazīstama ar nosaukumu Kapitulation.
Un vēsturiski kapitulation ir mazāk par tirgus beigām un vairāk par atsākšanu pirms nākamā cikla.

Katrs kriptovalūtu tirgotājs ir redzējis, kā hype virza tirgus meme monētu pieaugumu pāri nakti, NFT tendences dominē laika skalās, un sociālie mediji veicina pēkšņas rallijas. Bet Bitcoin darbojas savādāk.
2026. gada janvārī, $BTC pieauga līdz $97,000, kad ASV spot Bitcoin ETF uzsūca aptuveni $1.7 miljardus tikai trīs dienās. Tas nebija mazumtirdzniecības satraukums, tas bija institucionālais kapitāls, kas iejaucās un atjaunoja momentum pēc atkāpšanās. Lielāki naudas plūsmas viļņi iepriekš ir palīdzējuši virzīt Bitcoin pāri $120,000, nostiprinot svarīgu realitāti: