Crypto Explosion

The BTC/USD 45-minute chart shows a strong bullish impulse followed by a clear rejection from a major resistance zone, signaling a potential short-term bearish correction.
After the sharp rally from the 74,000 support region, Bitcoin surged aggressively into the 77,100 – 77,600 resistance zone, where sellers stepped in decisively. This area aligns with previous market resistance and has now acted as a supply zone, preventing further upside continuation.
Following the rejection, price started printing lower highs and weaker bullish candles, indicating that buying momentum is fading. The current retracement suggests that the market may be preparing for a downward move toward the 74,000 support level, which is highlighted as the target zone.
The marked entry area near resistance offers a favorable bearish setup, especially as price failed to break and hold above the resistance band. If sellers maintain control below 77,600, the bearish pressure is likely to continue, with the 74,000 region acting as the next major liquidity target.
Traders should watch for continued weakness below the resistance zone, as this would confirm the bearish continuation scenario, while a breakout above resistance would invalidate the setup.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 77,100 – 77,600
Target Zone: 74,000
Bias: Bearish below resistance
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) stopped its 6-month bearish streak in March and this month is staging an impressive rally (along with stocks). Still this isn't something that diverges from the typical Bear Cycle behavior. Even if April closes in green too, it won't be the first time BTC had two straight green months during a Bear Cycle. We've seen that two times before, May - June 2014 and February - March 2022.
So we are still within standard Bear Cycle borders and the 1M RSI and 1M LMACD come to confirm this. Those are historically the most stable indicators on Bitcoin Cycles. As you can see, BTC has historically bottomed when the 1M RSI hit the 15-year Lower Lows trend-line Support (green circles). The current rally is taking place much higher than that, so the Bear Cycle hasn't bottomed.
Also, the 1M LMACD is still high, with no signs of making a Bullish Cross, even though its April histogram bar turned light red. This has still time to change before the monthly closing but even if it stays that way it will not be the first time to have a light red bar before the Cycle bottom (happened in October 2022).
In addition, since the January 2015 bottom, every Bear Cycle bottom was priced 1430 days (47 weeks) after the previous one. If that holds again, the Cycle won't bottom before October 2026. On top of that, the price is hovering just above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which broke during the last Bear Cycle, with BTC bottoming on the 1W MA350 (orange trend-line). Technically this time it can go even as low as the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), so the two give us a $50000 - 40000 estimated Bottom (Buy) Zone.
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