codedtrader
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5.3 gadi
I'm a Crypto investor and data analyst using quantitative models, on-chain valuations, and risk ratios to invest in optimal assets while minimizing risk.
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Tulkot
$ETH remains resilient after an extended uptrend that caught many off guard. However, with $BTC hovering near all-time highs on low volume, there's no strong directional thrust for the next leg up.
Patience remains key in this environment.
Patience remains key in this environment.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Tirgus Pulsācija | 8. maijs
Pagājušajā naktī mans sistēma iezīmēja potenciālo inflekcijas punktu #BTC:
1. +796.45% pieaugums DRAS... tomēr asimetriskā dispersija joprojām ir negatīva.
2. Momentum pieauga, bet ne pietiekami.
3. #SPX paliek vidējā atgriešanās režīmā, kamēr tā korelācija ar BTC pastiprinās.
Šorīt? Tirgi mirgo zaļi. #SUI vada #Altcoins uzbrukumu, norādot uz spekulatīvo apetīti atjaunojoties.
Secinājums: Risks uzkrājas zem virsmas, bet pārliecības joprojām trūkst. Tas varētu būt ievads, nevis pārvietošanās.
Un ar @realDonaldTrump lūdzot procentu likmju samazinājumus, it kā viņš kādam būtu parādā jahtu... jādomā, kādas slepenās vienošanās tika iekļautas šajā ciklā.
Esi asprātīgs. Beginners panikā un reaģē, bet īstie G novēro, tad rīkojas.
Ja šis ieraksts jums bija noderīgs, lūdzu, patīk un dalieties.
$BTC $SUI
Pagājušajā naktī mans sistēma iezīmēja potenciālo inflekcijas punktu #BTC:
1. +796.45% pieaugums DRAS... tomēr asimetriskā dispersija joprojām ir negatīva.
2. Momentum pieauga, bet ne pietiekami.
3. #SPX paliek vidējā atgriešanās režīmā, kamēr tā korelācija ar BTC pastiprinās.
Šorīt? Tirgi mirgo zaļi. #SUI vada #Altcoins uzbrukumu, norādot uz spekulatīvo apetīti atjaunojoties.
Secinājums: Risks uzkrājas zem virsmas, bet pārliecības joprojām trūkst. Tas varētu būt ievads, nevis pārvietošanās.
Un ar @realDonaldTrump lūdzot procentu likmju samazinājumus, it kā viņš kādam būtu parādā jahtu... jādomā, kādas slepenās vienošanās tika iekļautas šajā ciklā.
Esi asprātīgs. Beginners panikā un reaģē, bet īstie G novēro, tad rīkojas.
Ja šis ieraksts jums bija noderīgs, lūdzu, patīk un dalieties.
$BTC $SUI
Tulkot
Check Point #001
Your Crypto Weekly Intelligence Brief
Get my latest insights, trend signals, and what I'm watching next.
https://codedtrader.github.io/checkpoint/
Want full access to the signals?
Follow me
Your Crypto Weekly Intelligence Brief
Get my latest insights, trend signals, and what I'm watching next.
https://codedtrader.github.io/checkpoint/
Want full access to the signals?
Follow me
Tulkot
#Bitcoin Market Thread: Early Signals of a #Crypto Rebound?
mid chaos, lies opportunities. Let’s break it down:
1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point
2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.
3. Short-Term Holder MVRV
Currently reading oversold. In a bull market context, that’s typically a reversal signal.
Translation: short-term pain, long-term gain territory.
4. STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio
Oversold
Beginning to rebound
This aligns with past cycle re-accumulation phases. The weak hands are exhausted.
55. Halving Price Regression (HPR)
The famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart isn’t dead yet
Even though this cycle hasn’t followed halving narratives… price just bounced exactly above the Halving Price Regression line.
Coincidence or structure?
6. Daily Price Distribution Skewness
Since Feb 8th: Negative skew — market was leaning bearish
On April 7th: Flipped positive
This flip historically marks trend change thresholds.
But Here's the Caveat...
$BTC is still highly correlated with the SPX.
And #SPX isn’t showing a clean reversal yet. A nuke in equities = contagion risk for crypto.
So while signs point to a rebound… we need SPX to play nice
TL;DR
On-chain data = Bullish
Macro = Cautious
Early signals are here. But patience and discipline are still our best tools.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
If you found this thread useful, please like and share. Thanks
Have a productive week ahead.
1. AVIV Ratio Z-Score Rebound
On April 8th, the AVIV Ratio Z-Score rebounded exactly at the same level as Sept 6th, 2023 — which marked the start of a strong uptrend.
If history rhymes, this could be a pivot point
2. Realised Capital Multiplier (365D)
From @_checkonchain: the multiplier still signals low liquidity. Historically, this kind of environment aligns with market bottoms.
Liquidity = fuel. We're still at the gas station.
3. Short-Term Holder MVRV
Currently reading oversold. In a bull market context, that’s typically a reversal signal.
Translation: short-term pain, long-term gain territory.
4. STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio
Oversold
Beginning to rebound
This aligns with past cycle re-accumulation phases. The weak hands are exhausted.
55. Halving Price Regression (HPR)
The famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart isn’t dead yet
Even though this cycle hasn’t followed halving narratives… price just bounced exactly above the Halving Price Regression line.
Coincidence or structure?
6. Daily Price Distribution Skewness
Since Feb 8th: Negative skew — market was leaning bearish
On April 7th: Flipped positive
This flip historically marks trend change thresholds.
But Here's the Caveat...
$BTC is still highly correlated with the SPX.
And #SPX isn’t showing a clean reversal yet. A nuke in equities = contagion risk for crypto.
So while signs point to a rebound… we need SPX to play nice
TL;DR
On-chain data = Bullish
Macro = Cautious
Early signals are here. But patience and discipline are still our best tools.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
If you found this thread useful, please like and share. Thanks
Have a productive week ahead.
Tulkot
#Crypto Market Analysis
1/ #SPX crashed -10.65% last week, but BTC only dipped -0.5%. Their correlation Z-score is 0.76, yet BTC’s not reacting to the nuke. TOTAL market cap vs. BTC/SPX ratio correlation dipped below zero yesterday—last seen Nov 5, 2023, a bottom for SPX & #BTC rally.
2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilience.
3/ #SOL shines: positive Sharpe & Sortino ratios, oversold, skewness 0.67301 (STD 0.04547). OTHERS.D Z-score -1.02 signals #Altcoins decoupling from BTC dominance. SOL’s the optimal asset here.
4/ Strategy: Long $SOL now—best risk/reward, oversold with upside skew. Optional BTC long (79K–86K range) as a hedge. Avoid SPX until recovery clears.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
If you found this article helpful, please like and share. Happy weekend.
2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilience.
3/ #SOL shines: positive Sharpe & Sortino ratios, oversold, skewness 0.67301 (STD 0.04547). OTHERS.D Z-score -1.02 signals #Altcoins decoupling from BTC dominance. SOL’s the optimal asset here.
4/ Strategy: Long $SOL now—best risk/reward, oversold with upside skew. Optional BTC long (79K–86K range) as a hedge. Avoid SPX until recovery clears.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
If you found this article helpful, please like and share. Happy weekend.
Tulkot
Crypto Market Update
The Choppiness Index is declining, signaling a potential shift in market regime. Bitcoin has been consolidating since late January, and multiple on-chain indicators suggest it’s oversold.
The Risk-Mosaic Indicator continues to signal a recovery. However, #Bitcoin is at a critical resistance level—historical data suggests it either breaks out or retraces to test lower levels as seen on the chart below.
Meanwhile, some #Altcoins are gaining strength while #BTC hesitates. Notably #Solana ($SOL), which underperformed during BTC’s range, its ratio against BTC is showing signs of momentum—RSI just crossed 50, and its EMA is aggressively trending up.
If you found this article helpful, like and share to support my work.
Remember: Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Have a productive week ahead!
The Risk-Mosaic Indicator continues to signal a recovery. However, #Bitcoin is at a critical resistance level—historical data suggests it either breaks out or retraces to test lower levels as seen on the chart below.
Meanwhile, some #Altcoins are gaining strength while #BTC hesitates. Notably #Solana ($SOL), which underperformed during BTC’s range, its ratio against BTC is showing signs of momentum—RSI just crossed 50, and its EMA is aggressively trending up.
If you found this article helpful, like and share to support my work.
Remember: Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Have a productive week ahead!
Tulkot
#Crypto Market Update: A Prime Buying Zone
The data is signaling a strong buy opportunity
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.
2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.
3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.
4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone, historically associated with market capitulation.
5/ RiskMosaic – Risk On/Off System
This framework integrates liquidity, sentiment, volatility, and macro factors. Currently at -0.35 (Blue), which signals market recovery. Additionally, Parabolic SAR flipped bullish yesterday, indicating a resumption of the uptrend.
No single indicator is 100% accurate, but when multiple high-quality technical and on-chain signals align, it creates strong confluence for high-probability trades.
Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.
2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.
3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.
4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone, historically associated with market capitulation.
5/ RiskMosaic – Risk On/Off System
This framework integrates liquidity, sentiment, volatility, and macro factors. Currently at -0.35 (Blue), which signals market recovery. Additionally, Parabolic SAR flipped bullish yesterday, indicating a resumption of the uptrend.
No single indicator is 100% accurate, but when multiple high-quality technical and on-chain signals align, it creates strong confluence for high-probability trades.
Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Tirgus atjauninājums: Galvenās atziņas un brīdinājumi
1/ Tīra Coca indikators – jaudīgs analītiskais rīks, kas izmanto Z-skora aprēķinus, lai atklātu dinamiskas tirgus pārmaiņas. Uzzīmēts BTC/ZELTA attiecībā, ir skaidrs, ka $PAXG paliek labākais aktīvs, īpaši šajā nenoteiktajā laikā.
2/ 42 Macro brīdinājums – @DariusDale42 no 42 Macro uzsver, ka, ja FED šogad nepaplašinās savu bilanci, mēs varam redzēt 20–30% kritumu S&P 500 – kas paliek ļoti saistīts ar #Bitcoin. Pēc viņa teiktā, ASV piedzīvo būtisku transformāciju, viņš uzsver ASV ekonomikas un kapitāla tirgu plašo un sarežģīto mērogu savā tvītā. Viņš noslēdz, ka šādas apjoma pāreja, visticamāk, nebūs īsa un sekla – gaidiet ilgstošu, sāpīgu procesu.
2/ 42 Macro brīdinājums – @DariusDale42 no 42 Macro uzsver, ka, ja FED šogad nepaplašinās savu bilanci, mēs varam redzēt 20–30% kritumu S&P 500 – kas paliek ļoti saistīts ar #Bitcoin. Pēc viņa teiktā, ASV piedzīvo būtisku transformāciju, viņš uzsver ASV ekonomikas un kapitāla tirgu plašo un sarežģīto mērogu savā tvītā. Viņš noslēdz, ka šādas apjoma pāreja, visticamāk, nebūs īsa un sekla – gaidiet ilgstošu, sāpīgu procesu.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Tirgus ir bijis relatīvi mierīgs pār nedēļas nogali, bez būtiskām izmaiņām uz ķēdes datiem. Vakar bija neliels kritums, bet šorīt tirgus ir gandrīz atguvis šos zaudējumus. Turklāt nav nekādu negatīvu virsrakstu saistībā ar tarifiem vai likmju paaugstināšanu. Paskatoties uz to, $BTC varētu atkārtoti pārbaudīt savus iepriekšējos zemāko punktus pirms atgūšanās. Kamēr tas konsolidējas, daži altkoini varētu piedzīvot izolētus pieaugumus. Manā uzraudzības sarakstā ir $BNB un $CRV
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Kripto Tirgus Atjauninājums:
Iztērētās Ienākumu Peļņas Attiecība (SOPR) dod mums ieskatu par to, vai #bitcoin turētāji pārdod ar peļņu vai zaudējumiem. Šobrīd īstermiņa turētāji pārdod ar zaudējumiem, bet SOPR atjaunojas. Kā atbalsta/pretestības indikators: Kad SOPR tuvojas 1, tas darbojas kā galvenais tirgus noskaņojuma līmenis. Ja tas atlec virs 1, tas nozīmē bullish turpināšanos.
Realizētais Kapitāla Reizinātājs (365 dienu) no Checkonchain rāda ekstremāli zemu likviditāti.
Zema likviditāte (zila/zaļa) bieži norāda uz tirgus apakšām → spēcīgām pirkšanas iespējām.
Realizētais Kapitāla Reizinātājs (365 dienu) no Checkonchain rāda ekstremāli zemu likviditāti.
Zema likviditāte (zila/zaļa) bieži norāda uz tirgus apakšām → spēcīgām pirkšanas iespējām.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Pēdējais griezums: Vai Trampa tarifu karš varētu beigt dolāra valdīšanu?
Iedomājieties bērnu, kurš paņem asu nazi, domājot, ka varēs izgriezt šedevru. Tas ir Donalds Tramps savā otrajā termiņā, izmantojot tarifus kā rīku, lai pārveidotu Amerikas ekonomiku. Viņš vēlas atgriezt fabrikas, uzplaukt darba vietām un padarīt Ameriku stiprāku. Bet šeit ir risks: asas ierīces var griezt abos virzienos.
Tramps maina globālo ekonomiku, un ASV dolārs — Amerikas varas mugurkauls — jūt spiedienu. Pat ja viņš tagad apstājas, kaitējums var jau būt nodarīts. Un fonā Bitcoin vēro, gaidot savu iespēju ieņemt troni.
Tramps maina globālo ekonomiku, un ASV dolārs — Amerikas varas mugurkauls — jūt spiedienu. Pat ja viņš tagad apstājas, kaitējums var jau būt nodarīts. Un fonā Bitcoin vēro, gaidot savu iespēju ieņemt troni.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Kriptovalūtu tirgus atjauninājums
Paplašinātā Diki-Fullera (ADF) grafiks par kopējo kriptovalūtu tirgus vērtību ir nonācis tendences stāvoklī, apstiprinot lejupslīdi.
$BTC cikla novērtējums pirmo reizi kopš novembra sākuma ir pārkāpis neitrālo robežu.
Analītiķa Tomasa prognoze par TGA iztērēšanu izpildās kā gaidīts, taču BTC nereģistrē pozitīvu reakciju. Tā vietā tā pārvietojas pretēji šai likviditātes injekcijai.
Ātrā skatījums uz ASV parāda griestiem: ASV visilgāk ir maldinājusi sevi. Ar 39,8 triljonu dolāru saistību atšķirību, 1,8 triljonu dolāru deficītu un 9 triljoniem dolāru 2025. gada termiņos, parāda griestu stāvoklis ir sprāgstoša laika bumba. Ja ienesīgums pieaug, gaidiet tirgus haosu.
$BTC cikla novērtējums pirmo reizi kopš novembra sākuma ir pārkāpis neitrālo robežu.
Analītiķa Tomasa prognoze par TGA iztērēšanu izpildās kā gaidīts, taču BTC nereģistrē pozitīvu reakciju. Tā vietā tā pārvietojas pretēji šai likviditātes injekcijai.
Ātrā skatījums uz ASV parāda griestiem: ASV visilgāk ir maldinājusi sevi. Ar 39,8 triljonu dolāru saistību atšķirību, 1,8 triljonu dolāru deficītu un 9 triljoniem dolāru 2025. gada termiņos, parāda griestu stāvoklis ir sprāgstoša laika bumba. Ja ienesīgums pieaug, gaidiet tirgus haosu.
Skatīt oriģinālu
"Tu nevari apmānīt visus cilvēkus vienmēr—vai tomēr vari?"
Autors Grok 3, xAI | 2025. gada 12. marts
“Tu vari apmānīt visus cilvēkus kādu laiku, un dažus cilvēkus vienmēr, bet tu nespēsi apmānīt visus cilvēkus vienmēr,” it kā teicis Abrahams Linkolns. Ak, Abe, cik naivi. Gadu desmitiem ASV valdība ir pārbaudījusi šo teoriju, uzkrājot 39,8 triljonu dolāru plaisu starp 45,5 triljoniem dolāru saistībām un 5,7 triljoniem dolāru aktīviem, kā norādīts 2024. gada finanšu ziņojumā [1]. Spoilera brīdinājums: mēs varētu būt apmānījuši sevi visilgāk.
Kā mēs nonācām šeit? Vienkārši—tērē kā nav rītdienas. Federālie līdzekļi aizņēmās 2 triljonus dolāru tikai 2024. gadā, lai segtu 1,8 triljonu dolāru deficītu, palielinot federālo parādu līdz 28,3 triljoniem dolāru [2]. Pievienojiet 15 triljonus dolāru pensiju un veterānu solījumos—jo kurš gan nemīl labu IOU?—un aktīvi, piemēram, 1,8 triljoni dolāru studentu aizdevumos, tikai nedaudz samazina bedri [1]. Tas nav sazvērestība; tā ir matemātika. Desmitgades deficīti, no Reigana līdz Baidenam, uzbūvēja šo bruto veidojumu, ar parāda attiecību pret IKP tagad 100% un raugoties uz 236% līdz 2050. gadam [3].
“Tu vari apmānīt visus cilvēkus kādu laiku, un dažus cilvēkus vienmēr, bet tu nespēsi apmānīt visus cilvēkus vienmēr,” it kā teicis Abrahams Linkolns. Ak, Abe, cik naivi. Gadu desmitiem ASV valdība ir pārbaudījusi šo teoriju, uzkrājot 39,8 triljonu dolāru plaisu starp 45,5 triljoniem dolāru saistībām un 5,7 triljoniem dolāru aktīviem, kā norādīts 2024. gada finanšu ziņojumā [1]. Spoilera brīdinājums: mēs varētu būt apmānījuši sevi visilgāk.
Kā mēs nonācām šeit? Vienkārši—tērē kā nav rītdienas. Federālie līdzekļi aizņēmās 2 triljonus dolāru tikai 2024. gadā, lai segtu 1,8 triljonu dolāru deficītu, palielinot federālo parādu līdz 28,3 triljoniem dolāru [2]. Pievienojiet 15 triljonus dolāru pensiju un veterānu solījumos—jo kurš gan nemīl labu IOU?—un aktīvi, piemēram, 1,8 triljoni dolāru studentu aizdevumos, tikai nedaudz samazina bedri [1]. Tas nav sazvērestība; tā ir matemātika. Desmitgades deficīti, no Reigana līdz Baidenam, uzbūvēja šo bruto veidojumu, ar parāda attiecību pret IKP tagad 100% un raugoties uz 236% līdz 2050. gadam [3].
Tulkot
CPI Report & Market Impact: What to Expect for #Crypto Investors
Today’s #CPI report will set the tone for markets. Here’s how different outcomes could play out:
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.
#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks could drag crypto lower, as it’s still seen as a risky asset.
Safe-Haven Play: Gold & #PAXG
With uncertainty rising, investors are looking for safe-haven assets like T-bills or gold. #Gold (AUX) has been in a sustained uptrend since late 2023.
For crypto investors, PAX Gold (PAXG) offers an on-chain alternative. Each PAXG token is backed by 1 fine troy ounce of gold stored in London vaults, giving investors direct exposure to gold’s price movements.
BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Gold Preference
At this critical market point, gold is showing strength relative to $BTC
Stay vigilant.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
If you found this article useful, please like and share. Thank you
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.
#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks could drag crypto lower, as it’s still seen as a risky asset.
Safe-Haven Play: Gold & #PAXG
With uncertainty rising, investors are looking for safe-haven assets like T-bills or gold. #Gold (AUX) has been in a sustained uptrend since late 2023.
For crypto investors, PAX Gold (PAXG) offers an on-chain alternative. Each PAXG token is backed by 1 fine troy ounce of gold stored in London vaults, giving investors direct exposure to gold’s price movements.
BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Gold Preference
At this critical market point, gold is showing strength relative to $BTC
Stay vigilant.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
If you found this article useful, please like and share. Thank you
Tulkot
Market Update: #Crypto at a Critical Point
Right now, the market may seem irrational—despite bullish headlines on crypto adoption, prices aren’t mooning. But sophisticated investors don’t let narratives dictate their actions. We analyze where the data flows.
Key Findings:
Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.
However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shifting into a trending regime—but not UP. The divergence in the chart speaks for itself.
Short-Term Holder MVRV: Measures profit/loss of short-term BTC holders relative to their cost basis. Currently holders are at a loss, with the lower band at ~$74.6K. A break down below this level could trigger massive liquidations.
Conclusion: Yesterday, the Supertrend indicator triggered a #BTC downtrend. The market is experiencing a relief bounce today, but don’t be fooled into thinking the dip is over. Levels to watch are on the chart above.
If you found this article helpful, please like and share.
Novices panic & react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Key Findings:
Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.
However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shifting into a trending regime—but not UP. The divergence in the chart speaks for itself.
Short-Term Holder MVRV: Measures profit/loss of short-term BTC holders relative to their cost basis. Currently holders are at a loss, with the lower band at ~$74.6K. A break down below this level could trigger massive liquidations.
Conclusion: Yesterday, the Supertrend indicator triggered a #BTC downtrend. The market is experiencing a relief bounce today, but don’t be fooled into thinking the dip is over. Levels to watch are on the chart above.
If you found this article helpful, please like and share.
Novices panic & react. Real Gs observe, then act.
Tulkot
Stablecoins at ATH: What It Means for Crypto!
The combined market cap of the top 5 stablecoins has surpassed $200B for the first time ever. This signals a major shift in #market sentiment.
Risk-Off Mode?
Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.
🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.
🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.
Short Squeeze Loading?
🔻 Funding rates are negative, showing excessive short positioning.
This means traders are heavily betting on a further BTC drop. But if Bitcoin holds key support levels, a short squeeze could send prices flying. 🚀
"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan."
~ Warren Buffett
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act. Stay sharp, Stay strategic.
Risk-Off Mode?
Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.
🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.
🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.
Short Squeeze Loading?
🔻 Funding rates are negative, showing excessive short positioning.
This means traders are heavily betting on a further BTC drop. But if Bitcoin holds key support levels, a short squeeze could send prices flying. 🚀
"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan."
~ Warren Buffett
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act. Stay sharp, Stay strategic.
Tulkot
Markets are on edge, not just in crypto, but globally. Geopolitical tensions, economic policy shifts, and liquidity risks are fueling wild price swings. We've seen $BTC move $10K+ in both directions multiple times in just a week, and altcoins are even more volatile.
This is not the time for reckless trading. Jumping in and out without a strategy can be costly. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and wait for high-probability setups. In uncertain times, capital preservation is just as important as profit.
This is not the time for reckless trading. Jumping in and out without a strategy can be costly. Stay disciplined, manage risk, and wait for high-probability setups. In uncertain times, capital preservation is just as important as profit.
Tulkot
Market Volatility Alert
Buckle up, crypto fam! Over the past week, BTC has seen $10K+ price swings, and altcoins are even wilder. More volatility is on the table, and here’s why.
$BTC
There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refinancing dries up, causing capital to flee risky markets.
So far, looking at the data:
Funding Rate: 0.0095 (longs are paying shorts, meaning bullish bias)Open Interest: +6.49% (traders are loading up on positions)
What does this mean?
Leverage is building up
If macro conditions shift risk-off, we could see liquidations & wild swings
BTC and alts remain highly sensitive to liquidity shocks
If the global refinancing air pocket materializes, institutions may de-risk, triggering forced liquidations and big price swings.
The crypto markets are still in play, but the next moves will be highly reactive to liquidity conditions. Adapt & stay ahead!
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
$BTC
There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refinancing dries up, causing capital to flee risky markets.
So far, looking at the data:
Funding Rate: 0.0095 (longs are paying shorts, meaning bullish bias)Open Interest: +6.49% (traders are loading up on positions)
What does this mean?
Leverage is building up
If macro conditions shift risk-off, we could see liquidations & wild swings
BTC and alts remain highly sensitive to liquidity shocks
If the global refinancing air pocket materializes, institutions may de-risk, triggering forced liquidations and big price swings.
The crypto markets are still in play, but the next moves will be highly reactive to liquidity conditions. Adapt & stay ahead!
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.
Skatīt oriģinālu
Kripto tirgus brīdinājums: augsta volatilitāte tuvākajā nākotnē
1/ Trampa muitas šoks 🏛️
Trampa jaunās muitas (25% uz Kanādu/Meksiku, +20% uz Ķīnu) ir satricinājušas globālos tirgus. Tirgotāji gūst peļņu, iznīcinot ieguvumus no viņa kripto rezerves paziņojuma.
2/ Elon pret Fed
Masks sauc Fed par "absurdīgi pārslogotu", kamēr bruto darbības peļņas (GOP) pārbaudes pievieno nenoteiktību. Kripto, kas ir ļoti jutīgs pret makro politikām, izjūt spiedienu. Bez skaidras pro-kripto nostājas vai procentu likmju samazināšanām, gaidiet satricinājumus.
3/ Ģeopolitiskā haosa un tirgus risks 🌍
ASV aptur militāro palīdzību Ukrainai
Trampa jaunās muitas (25% uz Kanādu/Meksiku, +20% uz Ķīnu) ir satricinājušas globālos tirgus. Tirgotāji gūst peļņu, iznīcinot ieguvumus no viņa kripto rezerves paziņojuma.
2/ Elon pret Fed
Masks sauc Fed par "absurdīgi pārslogotu", kamēr bruto darbības peļņas (GOP) pārbaudes pievieno nenoteiktību. Kripto, kas ir ļoti jutīgs pret makro politikām, izjūt spiedienu. Bez skaidras pro-kripto nostājas vai procentu likmju samazināšanām, gaidiet satricinājumus.
3/ Ģeopolitiskā haosa un tirgus risks 🌍
ASV aptur militāro palīdzību Ukrainai
Tulkot
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
1/ Big moves in crypto! 🚀 Yesterday, President Trump announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve, aiming to make the U.S. the world's crypto capital. The market soared, with some tokens gaining 20% in a single daily candle. But was this an overreaction? 🧐
2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60%. BTC is the only crypto holding steady, signaling a flight to safety. ⚠️
4/ For sophisticated investors, risk management is key. 📉 With BTC dominance high and altcoins bleeding, allocation strategy matters. Be cautious to minimize risk exposure.
5/ Critical levels to watch:
🔹 $BTC – Resistance: 96,158.75 | Support: 91,412.42
🔹 $SOL – Resistance: 207.5 | Support: 131.91
🔹 $SUI – Resistance: 3.92 | Support: 2.54
6/ These levels aren’t random. They are derived from historical data, calculated using daily returns & statistical analysis to form probabilistic expectations. 🔬
7/ With crypto’s volatility, market structure can shift quickly. Smart money is already repositioning—are you? Stay sharp. ⚡
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Trump #MarketAnalysis
2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60%. BTC is the only crypto holding steady, signaling a flight to safety. ⚠️
4/ For sophisticated investors, risk management is key. 📉 With BTC dominance high and altcoins bleeding, allocation strategy matters. Be cautious to minimize risk exposure.
5/ Critical levels to watch:
🔹 $BTC – Resistance: 96,158.75 | Support: 91,412.42
🔹 $SOL – Resistance: 207.5 | Support: 131.91
🔹 $SUI – Resistance: 3.92 | Support: 2.54
6/ These levels aren’t random. They are derived from historical data, calculated using daily returns & statistical analysis to form probabilistic expectations. 🔬
7/ With crypto’s volatility, market structure can shift quickly. Smart money is already repositioning—are you? Stay sharp. ⚡
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Trump #MarketAnalysis
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