BIG WARNING: S&P 500 SETUP IS LOOKING FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN PEOPLE REALIZE.
Price is still holding up, but fundamentals and strength are getting worse.
Let’s start with the economy first.
The latest Challenger data showed 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, the worst January since 2009, when the U.S. was already in recession.
At the same time, hiring is not replacing those jobs.
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.87, meaning there are only 87 jobs available for every 100 unemployed workers.
Job openings have also fallen to 6.5 million, the lowest level in more than five years.
Wage growth has also slowed down to 0.7% in Q4, the weakest pace in 4.5 years.
Then comes housing, which is another major economic pillar.
Right now, U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by roughly 630,000, the biggest gap ever recorded.
Now let's talk about spending.
Core retail spending fell 0.1% in December, the weakest since May 2025.
Now shift to the bond market.
The 10-year yield is rising much faster than the 2-year yield, creating a bear steepening environment.
On top of that, major countries are exiting their US bond holdings, which is causing more upward pressure on yields.
And this is happening while multiple external pressures are still active: • Iran tensions remain unresolved. • China continues reducing Treasury exposure. • The Fed is maintaining a hawkish tone.
Now look at the technical side. The daily RSI is showing weakness even while price is pushing higher, a structure very similar to what we saw in Q1 2025 before a major correction.
When price rises but momentum fades, it often signals late-stage trend exhaustion rather than fresh strength.
So when you combine everything: -> Weakening labor data. -> Falling job demand. -> Lower spending -> Housing imbalance. -> Bear steepening in bonds. -> Geopolitical risk. -> Hawkish Fed stance. -> Momentum divergence on charts.
You get a market that is losing strength and detached from the fundamentals, which often don't last long.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast Core retail spending the biggest driver of U.S. GDP, fell −0.1% in December, the weakest reading in 8 months. $PIPPIN
Spending declined across clothing, furniture, electronics, and auto dealers during the holiday month and only a few categories like building materials and sporting goods saw gains.
Lower income households are cutting back the most as budgets tighten and essentials take a bigger share of spending. $MON
Wage growth slowed to around 0.7% in Q4, the weakest pace since 2021. Since this retail data feeds straight into GDP, the drop signals weakening consumer demand and slower economic growth. $FHE
• Short zone: 0.1095 – 0.1135 • Targets: 0.1035 → 0.0980 → 0.0940 • Stop / Invalidation: Close above 0.1145
Price is retesting major resistance + descending trendline after a relief pump. Lower-high structure intact — rejection here favors continuation down. 📉
#USTechFundFlows BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS U.S. ECONOMY CAN GROW UP TO 15% UNDER KEVIN WARSH’S LEADERSHIP $ATM
Trump said picking Powell over Warsh in 2017 was a "big mistake," and that the US economy could grow as high as 15% if Warsh delivers the policy he’s capable of. $GHST
Trump is directly signaling lower rates and stronger liquidity support. He also said Warsh is a "high-quality person" who can do a spectacular job if given the opportunity.
This is the clearest signal yet that the next Fed direction could be more growth-focused and liquidity-friendly. $PIPPIN #WarshFedPolicyOutlook
Darba pieprasījums tagad ir vājāks nekā līmeņi, kas redzēti 2001. gada recesijas laikā. ASV darba piedāvājumi tikko samazinājās līdz 6.5 miljoniem, decembrī kritušies par 386,000, zemākais līmenis kopš 2020. gada septembra, kamēr pēdējo 2 mēnešu laikā piedāvājumi ir sabrukuši par 907,000.
No 2022. gada marta maksimuma darba piedāvājumi tagad ir samazinājušies par 5.6 miljoniem, parādot, cik ātri darba pieprasījums ir atdzisis.
Piedāvājumi tagad ir zem pirms pandēmijas līmeņiem, kas redzēti 2018–2019.
Tas vairs nav labs darba tirgus. Tas ātri vājinās. Vakances pret bezdarbniekiem attiecība ir samazinājusies līdz 0.87. Tas nozīmē, ka ir mazāk nekā 1 darba vieta uz bezdarbnieku.
$XNY swept liquidity near 0.0059, rejected sharply, and is pulling back into prior support around 0.0048–0.0050. Bounce from this zone could lead to continuation back toward 0.0055–0.0058. Loss of 0.0048 opens room for a deeper pullback.
PREZIDENTA TRAMPA 2026. GADA TIRGUS PLĀNS NOLIKTS.
Daudz cilvēku sagaida, ka tirgi 2026. gadā strauji pieaugs, bet viņi kādu laiku kļūdīsies.
Šeit ir tas, ko Tramps plāno 2026. gadā:
1. DAĻA: KRAHS
Šobrīd ASV ekonomika jau izskatās vāja:
Darba vietu zaudējumi pieaug. Bankrotu skaits pieaug. Kredītu nokavējumi uzkrājas. Māju pieprasījums sabrūk. Māju pārdevēji ievērojami apsteidz pircējus.
Tāpēc pastāv diezgan liela iespēja, ka akciju tirgū notiks korekcija nākamo 2-3 mēnešu laikā, līdzīgi kā 2025. gada 1. ceturksnī.
Šajā gadījumā: • S&P 500 varētu samazināties par 10%-15%
🚨 U.S. LABOR MARKET IS CRACKING — DATA CONFIRMS IT 🚨 $ZKP
The charts are telling one story, and it’s getting harder to ignore.
Here’s what’s happening 👇
• Job openings per unemployed worker just fell to the lowest level since the pandemic • Nonfarm payroll growth is rolling over fast, flirting with negative prints • JOLTS data shows job openings at the lowest level in 4.5 years • Hiring momentum continues to weaken while separations rise
This isn’t a soft patch — it’s a structural cooling in labor demand.
⚠️ Why this matters: $YALA
• Less labor tightness = less wage pressure
• Less wage pressure = falling inflation
• Falling inflation = rate cut pressure on the Fed
Markets don’t wait for headlines. They move when the labor market turns. $DOGE
🚨FED TO INJECT $8.3 BILLION INTO MONEY MARKETS TUESDAY $ZKP The Federal Reserve will conduct an $8.3 billion liquidity operation on Tuesday, February 10. The move is part of a broader $53.5–$55 billion plan to stabilize short-term money markets. $DATA
The operation will involve buying U.S. Treasury bills to ease funding pressures as overnight repo rates tighten and bank reserves thin. A follow-up injection of about $6.9 billion is planned for Thursday, February 12. $BAS Analysts see the liquidity support as a potential boost assets like Digital assets & BTC .