Mike C150

Here’s my thesis on the exact timing of the next cycle bottom.
I’m using the horizontal axis (time) to pinpoint the next major capitulation point.
Here’s the data regarding the days elapsed from all-time high to cycle low for each era:
1st Halving (2012): 406 days
2nd Halving (2016): 363 days
3rd Halving (2020): 376 days
4th Halving (2024): Pending
Based on these historical timeframes, there’s a high statistical probability that the next major bottom will occur in october – november 2026.
During that specific window, regardless of price action, aggressive dollar cost averaging is the correct play. I will be accumulating heavily.
However, I have already started buying since we entered the $60,000 range, even though the time window hasn't hit yet.
Here is the logic behind my strategy.
I operate on two dimensions: the horizontal axis (time) and the vertical axis (price).
Most retail traders only focus on the Vertical Axis ("I'll buy at X price").
The risk here is obvious: if price doesn't hit your level, you get front-run and miss the entire cycle.
The safe zone is often the zone where you get left behind.
The horizontal axis is the hedge against that risk.
It dictates a "middle-risk, middle-return" approach: when the date arrives, you buy, irrespective of price.
By hybridizing these two, I can accumulate with limited downside.
Reviewing the $60k call.
In october, when BTC was trading at $114,000, I said I would be a strong buyer in the $60,000 range.
At the time, sentiment was euphoric.
People claimed that a drop to $60k was impossible and that BTC would never fall below $100k again.
I don’t spend energy on critics. I stay composed and objective while others are distracted.
We have now hit that $60,000 range, and my price thesis played out.
However, the risk of missing a lower bottom still exists, which is why we must also prepare for the horizontal axis target: october-november 2026.
Summary of the strategy:
My accumulation plan is a diversified DCA approach across two axes:
1. Horizontal Axis: Oct-Nov 2026 is a strong BUY (Regardless of price).
2. Vertical Axis: Below $60,000 is a strong BUY (Regardless of time).
If either condition is met, I will execute daily buy orders of $500,000.
Also, please don’t forget about the institutional-grade on-chain indicator called NUPL.
The blue zone on the chart historically signals the absolute generational bottom.
– 2018 Bear Market
– COVID Crash
– 2022 Bottom
It caught every single one without exceptions.
Currently, we have not yet entered the blue zone.
Matter of fact, we’re still pretty far from it.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin between $45k and $50k by the end of 2026.
That’s my ultimate bottom price target, where I’d feel confident going all in.
The market is volatile right now, but we will survive this phase and see the next bull run together.
I’ve been here since 2013. Have you ever seen $BTC crash 99% within minutes because an exchange collapsed?
This 50% drop is absolutely nothing, and like I said before, it’s all going according to plan.
When I make a new move in the market, I’ll say it here publicly because I want you to win.
All you have to do is turn on notifications and pay close attention.
Many people will regret not following me sooner, trust me.
#MarketRebound #BTC走势分析