After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
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This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
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The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC gave back 1.49K from 81K, and Open Interest dropped with it.
- Open Interest (Binance Futures): 8.78B -> 8.59B, longs unwound as price fell - CVD: spot 596.24M, perp 2.89B, both down from the prior push, net selling - Coinbase Premium: -0.06%, still negative - Order Book Depth (0-5%): spot -195.52, perp +285.37, perp flipped bid-heavy
Falling OI into falling price means longs unwinding, not fresh shorts. Perp book turning bid-heavy suggests the flush is getting absorbed. Coinbase Premium staying negative means no spot confirmation yet.
This is a leverage flush. OI dropping on the way down is usually healthy, but premium needs to flip positive before calling a local bottom.
Does this OI flush mark the low, or is more length left to unwind?
After several days of continuous gains, BTC has forcefully broken through $80,000.
Price surged to a high of $81,299 and is currently holding firm around $80,458. This is not a weak probe it’s a decisive breakout with strong bullish momentum and clear structural support from Order Blocks and FVG zones.
The market has shifted. $80k is no longer resistance it’s now a launching pad! for some!!
Bitcoin's next move would be a bearish scenario!!!
Will this on-chain signal fail this time? Maybe not. It may simply be too early to jump to conclusions. Historically, the STH/LTH Realized Price structure has been extremely useful in identifying major $BTC market transitions. Right now, we are in an interesting zone, but confirmation is still missing. I believe the next few weeks could give us the real answer.
Getting rich in crypto is becoming increasingly difficult, not because there are fewer opportunities, but because derivatives and leverage have been normalized as if they were suitable for everyone.
They are not.
Leveraged trading requires intelligence, context awareness, fast reactions, and the ability to interpret multiple signals at the same time. Price alone is not enough. You need to understand liquidity, Open Interest, funding, positioning, liquidations, order flow, whale behavior, volatility, and structural market changes in real time.
And even with all that data available, there is still another challenge: turning data into decisions.
Many tools today show you information. Very few actually help traders understand what is happening, identify risk before the move, and react quickly when market conditions change.
You may be making money on your Long or Short right now and still not have a real edge. Leveraged trading should not be about clicking faster. It should be about thinking better, reacting faster, and making better decisions.
Better data, better intelligence, more powerful insights, and faster decisions.
Stocks are starting the week a little heavy while crypto continues to show strength. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are lower this morning with rising yields, geopolitical headlines and a big week of catalysts keeping risk appetite in check.
Bitcoin is holding around $77K after its strongest weekly performance in quite a while, while ETH has pushed back toward $2,500 after a huge ~30% weekly rally. Crypto finally has some momentum again and the most promising signs in a long long time. The question is whether buyers can turn this into something sustained rather than another relief rally. I'll assume yes until proven otherwise given we have not seen this type of market confidence in months and months.
Big things I'm watching this week:
• NVDA earnings Wednesday. Probably the biggest individual stock catalyst for the entire market. • PCE inflation + updated Q2 GDP Wednesday. • Fed Chair Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole later this week. • Whether BTC can hold the breakout and keep building above the $75K-$77K area. • Can altcoins continue to show strength and hold key supports providing full confidence to the market
We've got a lot of potential volatility packed into the next few days.
Don't get so excited about one green candle that you forget the bigger picture. Trade the levels. Manage risk. Let the market prove itself.
A new risk signal is emerging for Bitcoin, and another wave of long liquidations could happen at some point.
First, look at Open Interest.
In USD terms, Open Interest has increased. But when measured in BTC, it has actually declined. Something similar happened in 2022, about one month before the FTX crash.
At that time, a large number of leveraged positions had been opened because almost nobody expected the FTX collapse.
In 2026, Open Interest also surged, showing a significant increase in leveraged positions opened while Bitcoin was trading around $60,000 to $70,000.
The recent decline in BTC denominated Open Interest is strongly related to shorts. Many short positions were liquidated, while others were forced to close as the price moved sharply higher.
But now the gap between long and short positioning has become very large.
There are currently around 342K BTC in longs versus 233K BTC in shorts.
Historically, imbalances this large have often been followed by sharp downside moves not long afterward. This may partially explain some of the major liquidation events we have seen in the past, including the FTX crash, August 2023, August 2024, January 2025, and the period shortly before Bitcoin reached its all time high.
I am not saying Bitcoin must dump just to support a bearish bias. I am simply describing what the actual data is showing.
The gap between longs and shorts can still increase, and if it does, the risk factor also increases. Consequently, the probability of a sharp liquidation event also becomes higher.
From a risk perspective, the better time to enter a long position was near $60K, not now with Bitcoin approaching $80K.
Around $60K, the imbalance between longs and shorts was much smaller. Today, that imbalance is considerably larger.
History shows that extreme positioning imbalances often lead to higher volatility and large liquidation events.
The best thing to do now is simply watch the data closely.
$BTC Is this leverage or real demand? Open interest at $45.2B and rising. $59.4M of long liquidations cleared in 24h against $12.4M on shorts. Buy-side aggressive volume above sell-side, but not consistently across timeframes. Exchange reserves climbing in dollar terms.
Verdict: bullish but fragile. Price can push higher if the shorts above get squeezed, but leverage is doing most of the work not spot demand.
The map underneath says the same thing. Positioning is 73% long, with $65.80B of downside liquidation fuel against $23.9B above.
$BTC has formed a polarized liquidation zone around $76,240, with the peak size of short liquidations above significantly suppressing the lower side.
Short Liquidation Risk: The concentrated area is between $77,480 and $78,000, with a single liquidation peak exceeding $1.20 B. The cumulative short liquidation leverage curve shows a sharp upward trend.
Long Liquidation Risk: The concentrated area is between $75,000 and $75,660, with a local peak of approximately $600 M. The overall long liquidation scale is far lower than the concentrated liquidation zone above.
An extremely large amount of short leveraged positions has accumulated on the right side; an upward break above $77,000 could easily trigger a large-scale short squeeze and a chain of liquidations.