After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get: • Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro) • Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios • Smart money flow breakdowns • Clear market structure insights • Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you. Founder one-time access: $39 Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC Whales vs Retail Delta rose before the price, showing that the latest move higher was driven primarily by whales and fueled by activity in the perpetual futures market.
However, the chart is still red, which means that despite the recent rally, whales have not fully shifted to a bullish stance relative to retail traders.
A true bull run usually begins when the entire structure turns green.
Here are the kind of candles that can wipe out positions in assets like $XRP $HYPE .
That’s exactly why I keep saying: be careful with leverage.
It’s been a long time since I’ve seen the crypto market this dangerous for trading.
Stay alert.
Bluechip
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The market doesn’t just test your strategy. It tests your behavior.
When prices fall, many people isolate themselves, become frustrated, and lose confidence.
When prices rise, that same person can become euphoric, act impulsively, and start believing that everything has changed overnight.
And this becomes very clear in the comments, especially when financial exposure is involved.
That’s why I’m already prepared for a wave of criticism over the next few months. I’m sure it will become part of our daily routine.
Anyone working with data, analysis, and markets needs to understand one thing: you will never please everyone, especially when your view goes against someone’s position or expectations.
Frustration doesn’t help.
What helps is maturity, tolerance, resilience, and the conviction to keep following the data, even when the market’s emotions are screaming the opposite. $BTC
If the market looks to flush late long positions in the short term, the $75K region is critical. Above, the main concentration remains around $80K
Bluechip
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$BTC Open Interest Heatmap
Open interest concentration is clearly elevated around the $75K–$76K zone. Below, $73K, $69K, and $60K–$61K stand out as other major OI clusters. BTC is currently trading around the $78K region.
Open interest concentration is clearly elevated around the $75K–$76K zone. Below, $73K, $69K, and $60K–$61K stand out as other major OI clusters. BTC is currently trading around the $78K region.
Did $BTC form a bottom earlier than expected this time, or is there still room for further downside?
The Bubble Risk metric combines three components to assess the probability of excessive speculative conditions in Bitcoin:
30% Price to Realized Price Ratio 30% deviation from the Alpha Price 40% CVDD Ratio
Historically, the metric also shows two important long term structures: an upper trendline associated with higher risk zones and cycle extremes, and a lower trendline that has closely tracked major cycle bottom regions. And it is precisely that lower trendline that has my attention right now.
In previous cycles, Bubble Risk approached this region during important bottom formation processes. So far, that has not happened in this cycle.
Does that mean Bitcoin necessarily has to fall again? No.
But in my opinion, it also means it is still too early to say with conviction that the bear market is over and that the final bottom is already behind us.
Bitcoin has always been a market full of false breakouts, squeezes, and moves capable of quickly changing investor perception. With the growth of the derivatives market after 2017, this dynamic has become even more complex.
Even so, many of the major structural patterns observed in onchain data continue to appear across cycles, although with different amplitudes and timing.
That is why I am not invalidating either scenario.
Maybe Bitcoin simply formed its bottom earlier in this cycle. Maybe some historical metrics will not reach the same extremes again. Or maybe the market still needs more time and volatility before the bottom is truly confirmed.
My view today is simple: we still need at least a few more weeks, perhaps around two months, to assess whether metrics like Bubble Risk have genuinely broken their historical patterns or whether we are simply still in the middle of the process.
No rush to be right.
Observe more. Analyze more. Let the data evolve and make decisions calmly.
The market rewards resilience far more than blind conviction.
$BTC is on track to post its largest weekly gain since March 2023. INSANE RALLY IN CRYPTO STOCKS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. $MSTRB up 29% $COINB up 29% $MARA up 28% $BMNR up 22% #BitcoinBestWeekSinceMarch2023
Bluechip
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🩸Another $3.6 BILLION wipeout is WAITING...
$3.6B in Bitcoin shorts could be liquidated if $BTC breaks above $80k.
Over $2.4B has already been wiped out in the last 3 days.
@CZ : “LET’S TOKENIZE EVERYTHING” $BTC hit $79,500, up nearly 10% in 24h after the US Treasury doubled its long-term bond buybacks and Trump rallied crypto execs at the White House to push the CLARITY Act.
Notably, tokenized assets led trading volume growth even though traditional markets were quiet last week
The tokenized stock market has grown to $2.8B
Securitize-issued SECZ now leads the sector by market cap at $165.6M, ahead of STRCx at $141.8M and CRCLon at $112.5M