ppi

Based on FIG’s reporting, Fragoso Investment Group has no positions related to this article at the time of publication. Positions may change at any time.
This PPI print (0.5% vs. 1.1% expected) is the missing puzzle piece that confirms the earlier suspicion:
Supply-side inflation is collapsing.
Updated analysis after today’s market impact, April 14, 2026:
Deep Dive: The CPI Lie Has Reached Its End
The market was terrified by the projected 1.1%, expecting producer costs to validate last week’s CPI “inflation rebound.” Coming in at 0.5% instead, unchanged from the previous reading, it confirms that producers are not passing costs on to consumers. This dismantles the “sticky inflation” narrative. It is a deeply disinflationary print that pulls the floor out from under the DXY and gives the Fed cover to ignore the inflated employment data.

Narrative and Divergence Flash
Narrative: “The Fed must stay cautious because employment is strong.”
Forensic Reality: The DXY at 98.14 is breaking below the floor of the 48-hour range (99.18). The FX market no longer believes in the “Strong Dollar” story. As bonds (US10Y) fall to 4.27%, smart money is rotating aggressively into real scarcity assets (Gold and BTC). The divergence is complete: the dollar is falling while liquidity expands on fears of a concealed economic slowdown.
Bias: Aggressively Bullish for Safe-Haven Assets
GOLD (XAUUSD): [Outlook: Trend Continuation / Skyrocket]
Technical Reason: The current price of $4,837.50 has smashed through the 48-hour ceiling ($4,842 is within striking distance). Gold is “smelling” the end of high rates. The decline in PPI reduces pressure on real yields, allowing Gold to shine without competition.
Invalidation: A move below $4,760, back into the mid-range, would invalidate the PPI-driven momentum.
BITCOIN (BTC): [Outlook: Price Discovery / Breakout to New Highs]
Technical Reason: Trading at $75,407, BTC is ignoring the macro noise and operating as the “Final Reserve Liquidity.” It is up 6% in 7 days. DXY weakness below 98.50 is rocket fuel for BTC. The liquidity leaving cash due to the soft PPI print is flowing directly into Bitcoin ETFs.
Pullback:
$73,800 - $74,500. If there is a retracement to test breakout liquidity, that is where institutional orders are sitting.
Invalidation: Below $71,500. If we lose the 48-hour range, the breakout narrative would have been a liquidity trap.
The collapse in PPI (0.5% vs. 1.1%) condemns the dollar (98.14) by confirming that there is no real inflation spiral, allowing Gold and BTC to absorb the liquidity fleeing declining Treasury yields.
Anchored to April 14, 2026 data. Real PPI MoM: 0.5% (Forecast: 1.1%). DXY breaking below 98.14. US10Y cooling to 4.27%. Gold is now sitting just 13% below its all-time high, while BTC is leading the decoupling trade with a 6.02% weekly gain.
#FED #PPI #BTC