cycle

New macro data just dropped and it’s worse than anyone realizes.

This is not a drill.

98% of people will lose everything this year.

Not because of a normal recession.
Not because of a bank run.
Not because of never-ending military conflicts.
Something bigger is coming.

It starts in sovereign bonds - especially U.S. Treasuries.

Bond volatility is waking up.
The MOVE index is rising, and that never happens without stress underneath.
Bonds don’t move on stories, they move when funding tightens.

And right now, three fault lines are converging:

1⃣ U.S. Treasury

In 2026, the U.S. must refinance massive debt while running huge deficits.
Interest costs are surging, foreign demand is fading, dealers are constrained, and long-end auctions are already showing cracks.

Weaker demand. Bigger tails. Less balance sheet.
That’s how funding shocks begin - quietly.

2⃣ Japan

The largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and the core of global carry trades.
If USD/JPY keeps climbing and the BOJ reacts, carry trades unwind fast.

When that happens, Japan sells foreign bonds too - adding pressure to U.S. yields at the worst possible time.

Japan doesn’t start the fire, but it'll contribute to it big way.

3⃣ China

Their massive local-government debt problem still sits unresolved.
If that stress surfaces, the yuan weakens, capital flees, the dollar strengthens - and U.S. yields rise again.

China amplifies the shock.
The trigger doesn’t need to be dramatic.
One badly received 10Y or 30Y auction is enough.

We’ve seen this before - the UK crisis in 2022 followed the same script.
This time, the scale is global.

If a funding shock hits, the sequence is clear:
Yields spike → Dollar up → Liquidity dries up → Risk assets sell off fast.

Then central banks step in.
Liquidity injections → Swap lines →Balance sheet tools.

Stability returns, but with more liquidity.
Real yields fall → Gold breaks out → Silver follows → Bitcoin recovers → Commodities move → The dollar rolls over.

The shock sets up the next inflationary cycle.
That’s why 2026 matters.
Not because everything collapses, but because multiple stress cycles peak at once.

The signal is already there.
Bond volatility doesn’t rise early by accident.
The world can survive recessions.
What it can’t handle is a disorderly Treasury market.

That risk is building quietly - and by the time it’s obvious, it’s too late.

Many will wish they paid attention sooner.
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