cftc

📅 February 9 - United States | Tensions between prediction markets and state regulators escalated to a new level when Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts, arguing that states lack the authority to regulate these types of event-based contracts.

📖 For state regulators, these products look too much like sports betting; for the platforms, they are derivatives regulated by the CFTC.
The immediate spark was a Massachusetts judge's ruling last month against rival platform Kalshi, determining that it could not allow state residents to trade contracts on sporting events without a state gaming license.
The decision backed up the position of Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, who characterized such operations as unauthorized sports betting. When Kalshi asked to stay the order while it appealed, the court denied and gave it 30 days to comply. That precedent set off alarm bells in the industry.
Massachusetts isn't alone: ​​Nevada has also taken similar steps against Kalshi, Polymarket, and partners that offer sports-linked contracts, while Coinbase faces state litigation over comparable event contract products.
However, the legal landscape is not uniform. In January, a federal judge temporarily blocked Tennessee from enforcing a cease and desist order against Kalshi, ruling that it must first be determined whether federal commodities law takes precedence over state regulations.
It is in this context that Polymarket decided to go on the offensive, taking the case to a federal court and arguing that Congress has already defined the jurisdiction: these contracts are subject to the CFTC.
The dispute also comes at a key political moment: the CFTC recently withdrew a Biden-era proposal that would have banned certain political contracts and eliminated guidance related to sports contracts, signals that many interpret as a shift toward a more pro-industry stance.

Topic Opinion:
It's not just about betting or derivatives: it's about who has the authority to define the limits of financial innovation. If the states prevail, we'll see a regulatory patchwork that could fragment these markets; if the federal approach wins, it will open the door to clearer national expansion.
💬 Do you think these markets are betting in disguise or genuine financial instruments?

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Ievads
ASV prognozēšanas tirgus nozare pēdējo gadu laikā ir piedzīvojusi strauju izaugsmi, piesaistot mazumtirdzniecības tirgotājus un spekulatīvos kapitālus ar inovatīviem notikumiem balstītiem līgumiem. Tomēr, neskatoties uz aktivitātes pieaugumu, analītiķi arvien biežāk brīdina, ka šī paplašināšanās balstās uz nestabilu pamatu. Liela daļa no nozares panākumiem šķiet, ka izriet no regulējošām nepilnībām, nevis no organiskās tirgus nobriešanas, radot jautājumus par tās ilgtermiņa ilgtspējību.
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