btcdrop

$BTC
Principal Content
Bitcoin recently dropped below $70,000, raising concerns of a deeper potential decline toward $40,000-$50,000, a range aligned with the average cost basis of long-term holders. On-chain metrics including the adjusted long-term holder MVRV ratio, SOPR, and loss risk percentage indicate that long-term holders remain largely above water and continue to take profits, meaning the market has not yet hit the capitulation phase typical for cycle bottoms. Historical data shows that when long-term holders become underwater and start realizing losses en masse, it signals durable lows and potential trend reversals. However, Bitcoin is not in that phase yet but is approaching a critical stress test zone reflecting a significant market reset possibility.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment currently mixes uncertainty and caution. Retail and some short-term holders may be anxious due to the price dipping below a major psychological and technical level of $70,000, while long-term holders exhibit resilience, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin's fundamentals. Social media and trading platforms report increased profit-taking and forced selling, highlighting nervousness, but the steady long-term holder metrics imply that the selling pressure has not yet exhausted the strongest hands. Quantitative indicators such as long-term holder MVRV staying above 1.0 and SOPR above 1 suggest guarded optimism but with awareness of growing downside risk if the price falls toward the $40k-$50k neighborhood.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: Historical Bitcoin bear markets and cycle lows saw long-term holders entering underwater territories, with MVRV below 1.0 and SOPR below 1, typically along with elevated supply held at a loss. These phases coincided with significant capitulation and marked durable market bottoms (examples include the 2018 and 2020 market bottoms).
- Future: If Bitcoin’s price declines further and on-chain metrics follow past patterns, a drop toward $40,000-$50,000 would likely represent the final bear market stress test, inducing capitulation from long-term holders and potentially setting the stage for a new bull cycle. Alternatively, strong ETF inflows and institutional buying could absorb selling pressure and support a more gradual bottoming without a sharp drop. Quantitatively, a rise in long-term holder loss risk beyond 50-60% could signal accelerated capitulation phases ahead.
A potential 42% price drop to the $40k-$50k range could significantly increase market volatility and forced selling, especially from leveraged traders, heightening short-term downside risks across crypto assets. This deep correction could lead to cascading liquidations and wider de-risking in risk assets including tech stocks and commodities, given Bitcoin's partial correlation with these markets. However, such a washout may also cleanse weak hands, paving the way for healthier institutional accumulation and more sustainable future growth. The timing and magnitude of ETF flows and macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policy and bond yields, will be critical in moderating or exacerbating this impact.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Rationale: The analysis suggests Bitcoin's price continues to face downside risk toward a historically significant long-term holder cost basis zone around $40,000-$50,000, which often marks cycle lows. Thus, adopting a cautious but constructive approach to accumulate at strong support levels with clear profit-taking targets aligns with institutional investor behavior. Gradually building exposure on dips near these key levels allows for benefit from potential sharp bottoms without overexposure to volatility.
- Execution Strategy: Initiate partial buy orders when Bitcoin approaches the lower support range near $50,000 and increase positions if prices dip closer to $40,000, ideally confirmed by oversold short-term indicators (e.g., RSI below 30). Profit-taking should be planned near resistance or previous highs, with monitoring of ETF flows and institutional buying as confirmation signals for upward momentum.
- Risk Management Strategy: Set tight stop-loss orders around 5-8% below entry prices to limit downside risk. Maintain portfolio diversification to hedge broader market risks linked to macroeconomic conditions like Federal Reserve rate policies and bond yields. Regularly monitor on-chain metrics (long-term holder MVRV and SOPR) and volatility indices to adjust exposure and exit if capitulation accelerates beyond expected levels. This balanced buy strategy aligns with hedge fund models emphasizing disciplined entry and risk control amidst volatile bear market conditions.#BitcoinDropMarketImpact #JPMorganSaysBTCOverGold #btcdrop


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What’s Happening Today

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all trading lower, with BTC down ~4%, ETH ~6%, and XRP about 5% on February 5, 2026. Markets are broadly negative.

The overall crypto market is under pressure, and many altcoins are also declining.

🔎 Core Drivers Behind the Price Pressure Today

1. Macro & Monetary Policy Pressure

Ongoing concerns about monetary policy and interest rates are weighing on crypto. “Hawkish” moves from central banks make risk assets like crypto less attractive.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty

Delay and uncertainty around clear crypto regulation — especially in the U.S. — create caution among investors.

3. Liquidity & Market Structure Issues

Limited liquidity in crypto markets increases volatility and makes downward moves sharper.

4. Technical Selling & Long Liquidations

Breaks of key support levels trigger technical selling and force leveraged positions to unwind, adding selling pressure.

5. ETF & Investment Fund Outflows

Crypto ETFs and funds have seen net outflows, meaning investors are withdrawing capital, putting pressure especially on BTC and ETH.

6. Reduced Risk Appetite

When traditional markets are uncertain, investors often de-risk, reducing holdings in assets like crypto.

7. Broader Risk-Off Market Conditions

Financial markets have recently shown risk-off behavior, pushing money into safe havens and away from speculative assets like crypto.

8. Market Sentiment & Fear Indicators

Crypto Fear & Greed indexes and sentiment data are pointing to “fear,” meaning traders are more likely to sell than buy.

9. Capital Rotation Within Crypto

Funds are shifting from major crypto assets like XRP into newer ecosystems and alternative blockchains.

10. Day-to-Day Price Dynamics

Short-term price fluctuations and leveraged traders exiting positions add to the downward pressure.

$BTC $ETH
$XRP
#BTCDrop

$BTC 🚨 Milzīgs Bitcoin kritums varētu būt nākamais – lūk, ko es redzu

Sveiki visiem, esmu Romeo Rašids, un pēc tam, kad tuvāk skatījos Bitcoin nesenajiem gājieniem, jūtu, ka tirgus rāda nopietnus brīdinājuma signālus. Tas nav panika - tas ir tas, ko diagrammas skaidri mums saka. Ja jūs esat iesaistīts kripto vai domājat par ieiešanu, šis ir kaut kas, kam jāpievērš uzmanība.

🕯️ Ko rāda sveču stabi:

Nedēļas laika posms: Ir modelis, ko sauc par Vakarā Zvaigzni, kas veidojas pie svarīga pretestības līmeņa. Tas parasti parādās, kad spēcīga augšupejošā tendence zaudē spēku - un bieži signalizē iespējamu apgriešanos.

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Lietotāja pieprasījums ir ņemt sniegto rakstu un pārvērst to par sociālo mediju stila brīdinājumu Binance Square, izmantojot emocijzīmes un dažādus, bet līdzīgus mirkļbirku (4-5).

Riska aktīvi, tostarp bitkoins, samazinās, jo jauns Ķīnas mākslīgā intelekta uzsākums apdraud ASV dominanci, atstājot analītiķus spekulēt par Trampa nākamo agresīvo gājienu.
Bitkoins krītas zem 100 000 USD, ņemot vērā bažas par Ķīnas mākslīgo intelektu
Bitkoins (BTC) atkal ir spiedienā, krītot zem 100 000 USD atzīmes, kad Ķīnas mākslīgā intelekta gigants Deepseek šūpo globālos tirgus. Bažas par ASV dominances apdraudējumu ir novedušas pie palielinātas uzmanības Trampam un viņa potenciālajam nākamajam gājienam.
Saskaņā ar QCP Capital, tirgotāji cieši seko šai tehnoloģiskajai attīstībai, kas varētu apdraudēt ASV dominanci mākslīgajā intelektā. Telegram postā 27. janvārī analītiķis izcēla, ka Deepseek izmaksu ziņā efektīvā un atvērtā koda tehnoloģija rada “potenciālu apdraudējumu ASV akciju tirgiem, izjaucot amerikāņu mākslīgā intelekta dominanci ar tās efektivitāti un revolucionāro atvērtā koda pieeju.”