#JobsDataShock the US and Iran really go to war, the first to die is most likely Japan.
This is not a joke.
Look at Japan's current situation —
On one hand, it bears a 15% tariff from the US, while on the other hand, it has to invest 550 billion USD in the US. At the same time, China is imposing a ban on dual-use military and civilian goods, and Russia is also sanctioning it. Surrounded by three powerful nations, Japan is like an immobile prisoner of war, waiting to be beaten.
Then, when the guns go off at the Strait of Hormuz, the first to go is it.
Why?
Japan has almost no oil or gas domestically. 92% of its crude oil comes from the Middle East, and 100% has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Natural gas is even worse. Since Fukushima, nearly all nuclear power plants have stopped, and one-third of the country's electricity relies on natural gas. Most of this gas still has to pass through that strait.
If oil is cut off, it can still rely on reserves, but if gas is cut off, there are no reserves at all.
Japan's LNG ship inventory is only enough for two or three commercial cycles. Once the cycle is over, it won't be able to turn the lights on.
On March 4th, when the US-Iran situation became tense, the Nikkei index dropped by 2000 points in one day, marking the fifth-largest drop in history. The exchange rate fell back to around 158, almost touching the historical low.
Not long ago, it was still shouting, 'If there's trouble in Taiwan, there's trouble in Japan.'
Now it's good —
If there's trouble in Iran, there's trouble in Japan.
After seven days of conflict, China sent an envoy to the Middle East.
Someone asked: Does this mean my holdings in Hengke are saved?
Don't rush.
Modern warfare is just Schrödinger's cat. Whoever first shows their blood bar has their costs calculated clearly.
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