SP Cryptozone

⚠️ Leverage and Bitcoin: A Potential Structural Hazard?
Robert Mitchnik, who oversees digital assets at BlackRock, has warned that a high level of leverage in the cryptocurrency derivatives market significantly contributes to Bitcoin's volatile price fluctuations.

His main argument is that when traders engage in significant leverage via tools like futures and perpetual contracts, even a slight drop in price can prompt forced liquidations. These liquidations induce further selling activity, leading to even more liquidations — creating a cycle. What starts as a minor, natural correction can swiftly develop into a major downturn without any new fundamental reason.

He emphasizes that the current weakness in Bitcoin is not due to ETF outflows, such as those from iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Reports suggest that flows in that area have remained mostly stable. Instead, the main source of volatility has come from derivative markets, where the leverage is considerable, and the liquidation processes are automated.

The significance for institutions

Bitcoin is increasingly promoted as:
• A limited, decentralized financial asset
• A hedge or diversifier for portfolios
• “Digital gold. ”

However, significant short-term volatility can challenge this perspective, especially for conservative investors like pension funds, insurance companies, and family offices. Large, patient investment typically favors structural consistency over reactive boom-bust cycles resulting from leverage.

Is he accurate?

There is substantial evidence indicating that leverage exacerbates Bitcoin's price movements. Instances of liquidation cascades can be observed in both on-chain and derivatives data during major downturns. Thus, structurally, his assertion appears valid.

However, it should be noted that volatility is also a component of Bitcoin’s development. As market depth increases and physical ownership rises in relation to derivative trading, the impact of leverage may gradually lessen.

What practical solutions exist?

Some potential strategies include:

Establishing lower leverage limits on exchanges to mitigate systemic cascade risks.

Enhancing transparency regarding open interest and liquidation thresholds.

Encouraging the growth of spot-based products (such as ETFs) that promote unleveraged exposure.

Providing risk management education for retail investors.

In the end, the market may adjust itself: repeated crashes caused by liquidations tend to discourage excessive leverage over time.

The larger question is whether Bitcoin can transform into a stable macro asset while a significant portion of trading volume remains heavily leveraged.

What’s your perspective — is leverage the primary problem, or merely a symptom of an immature, speculative market?
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🚨⚡️ IS A GLOBAL MARKET DISTURBANCE ON THE HORIZON? PAY ATTENTION TO CHINA'S ACTIONS.
Speculation is increasing that the recent financial tactics of Beijing might create ripple effects in worldwide markets.

Here are the main points driving this discussion:

China's investments in U. S. Treasuries have decreased to about $683 billion, a figure reminiscent of the financial downturn in the late 2000s. During the first eleven months of 2025, it’s estimated that approximately $115 billion of U. S. debt has been reduced — over a 14% drop in less than a year.

This isn’t just a minor adjustment to investment portfolios; it indicates a calculated shift in strategy.

So, where is that money being redirected?

To gold.

Reports indicate that the People’s Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves consistently for over a year. Official data reveals reserves exceeding 74 million ounces, valued in the hundreds of billions. Some analysts believe that there could be further purchases made through associated organizations, like the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which suggests the actual reserves could be higher than the official figures imply.

Concurrently, various BRICS countries have been slowly decreasing their holdings in U. S. government debt while boosting their investments in alternative reserve assets.

Here’s why this is significant:

• Ongoing selling of Treasuries can exert pressure on bond markets and affect yields.
• Increased gold purchases point towards a strategy to hedge against currency and geopolitical risks.
• A collective move away from dollar assets would represent a deep-rooted shift in capital allocation.

Previous increases in gold prices were not merely driven by speculation; they indicated shifting views regarding long-term monetary stability.

Could this be the most significant reallocation of global reserves since the Cold War? Some market analysts think so, while others suggest it’s more of a gradual diversification rather than a sign of an impending crisis.

Regardless, the takeaway is important: capital movements are changing, and it’s essential to grasp where national funds are heading.

Remain vigilant. Markets can often respond before news reports convey the situation.
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🔥🚨 MAJOR NOTIFICATION: GEOPOLITICAL SPECULATION FUELS MASSIVE ECONOMIC DISCUSSIONS 🇺🇸⚡🇮🇷
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There has been a noticeable increase in discussions online suggesting that if the Iranian government were to be toppled by 2027, the United States and Israel would quickly gain access to a vast amount of Iranian natural resources, thought to be worth as much as $17 trillion. While this figure is being widely circulated, it is crucial to distinguish what is substantiated from what is mere conjecture.

🔍 What is actually based on evidence:
Iran stands as one of the leading nations in terms of fossil fuel reserves. It is ranked among the top countries worldwide for proven oil reserves and is also closely positioned among the top in terms of natural gas reserves — only trailing a few regional counterparts, as per industry analyses. This indicates that Tehran possesses a considerable portion of the potential energy supply on a global scale.

✨ What lacks confirmation:
There is no formal government documentation or consensus in energy evaluations that validates the exact $17 trillion figure associated with all of Iran’s natural resources, nor is there any official assertion linking regime change directly to an instant reallocation of such wealth. The $17 trillion figure currently being discussed online seems to be speculative and likely exaggerated beyond reliable estimations.

📌 Why this information remains significant:
Iran’s resource wealth — especially in oil and gas — provides the nation with significant strategic power in international energy markets. Any substantial alteration in its political landscape could impact:

• The flow and pricing of global energy
• Regional strategic collaborations
• Investment prospects in both commodities and defense sectors

Even if the large monetary figures circulating online are unfounded, the essential idea — that Iran possesses crucial natural resources critical to global energy interactions — remains valid.

🌐 Effects on markets:
When rumors related to geopolitics like this emerge, they can sway risk assets, commodities, and sentiment-driven markets, such as cryptocurrencies. Markets often react excessively before fundamental factors stabilize, resulting in increased volatility even in the face of unproven narratives.

💡 In summary: Iran indeed has a significant position in global energy, but any specific financial claims related to regime change should be approached with caution unless corroborated by trustworthy sources.

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#GlobalMacro #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics

🚨 Could Dollarization Be on Hold? Moscow Hints at a Potential Dollar Revamp
For many years, addresses by Vladimir Putin alongside high-ranking Kremlin members focused on minimizing reliance on the U. S. dollar. The intent was plain: create alternatives, shift trade to different currencies, and diminish the dollar's supremacy.

Currently, this narrative might be evolving.

As reported by Bloomberg, Russian leaders are considering options that could lead to the resumption of U. S. dollar transactions — particularly in the energy sector. This is significant in light of recent moves to embrace the yuan and other “friendly” currencies.

Internal dialogues are said to include various avenues for collaboration with Washington post-conflict: energy partnerships, essential minerals, aviation, nuclear infrastructure for AI initiatives, and even the potential reinvolvement of American firms in the Russian market.

However, the most important development transcends industrial collaboration.

It pertains to currency.

Why reconsider engaging with the dollar?

The dollar embodies more than just symbolic influence. It signifies liquidity, extensive capital markets, transactional frameworks, and global risk management instruments that no competitor has completely duplicated. Replacing that framework is challenging — particularly under the weight of sanctions.

The concept of financial sovereignty might sound appealing in political addresses.
However, the realities of balance-of-payments are less accommodating.

For international markets — and crypto analysts alike — the indication is unmistakable: when economic pressures increase, countries often revert to the most liquid and universally recognized settlement medium.

While political narratives might advocate for a “new order,” global trade still relies on established systems.

Western doubts are pronounced, with some perceiving this as a strategic geopolitical move. Yet the readiness to reconsider dollar transactions highlights a more profound reality:

The global economy is built on trust, liquidity, and systems — not just catchphrases.

And when the heat rises, even those who criticize the current system may desire to regain access to it.

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#Macro #bitcoin

🚨 ARE YOU BETWEEN 18–48? PAY ATTENTION TO THIS.
Take a moment.

This is not a sales pitch.
It’s an important notification.

The coming months may provide an opportunity for significant wealth accumulation — the kind of success people reminisce about for years. Meanwhile, many will remain passive as it unfolds.

We are entering a time when markets won't just rise gradually.

They will surge.

Money flow is building up quietly.
Investors are still being careful.
Doubt is pervasive.

What does this mix create? It’s explosive.

When the moment arrives, it won’t be a gradual increase. It will be an immediate jump — fueled by greed, fear of missing out, and disbelief transforming into excitement.

Stocks won’t just “trend upward. ”
They’ll accelerate rapidly.

Cryptocurrency won’t merely “recover. ”
It could skyrocket completely.

In the latter stages of cycles, price increases often exceed rational expectations before reality takes hold. Initially, there’s acceleration. Following that, there’s excess. The reckoning only happens later.

That’s the nature of these explosive periods.

Opportunities like this are rare. They don’t happen every year. They don't even arise every cycle. They are fleeting — and then they vanish.

The hard truth?

Waiting can be costly.
As uncertainty spreads, cash quietly takes its place.
As fear persists, liquidity accumulates.

This isn’t a matter of unfounded hope. It’s about grasping the framework:

• Money flow cycles
• Extreme market sentiment
• Insufficient exposure positions
• Shifts in public psychology

Markets react strongly when skepticism turns into active involvement.

If momentum starts, the resulting profits will seem unbelievable. The kind that leads people to whisper figures rather than share them publicly.

But keep in mind — periods of excitement won’t endure indefinitely. They ignite quickly and intensely.

Being ready is more vital than trying to forecast.

Monitor market sentiment.
Monitor liquidity.
Monitor investment positioning.

Because when the right conditions come together, markets do not seek approval.

They act.
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$ETH
$XRP

🚨 EL SALVADOR FACES A DECLINE IN ITS BITCOIN PORTFOLIO AS IMF DISCUSSIONS STALL
As of February 13, 2026, the intense Bitcoin initiative of El Salvador is under increased strain. The digital currency assets acquired during President Nayib Bukele's administration have decreased by nearly $300 million since reaching their highest point in late 2025.

The state currently possesses around 7,560 BTC, currently valued at approximately $503 million based on recent market rates. In spite of this decline, government officials continue to follow their plan of acquiring one Bitcoin daily. At the same time, indicators reflecting sovereign risk, such as credit default swaps, have risen to their highest levels in several months, indicating decreasing investor confidence.

To make matters worse, talks with the International Monetary Fund regarding a $1.4 billion loan arrangement have hit a standstill. With bond repayments totaling $450 million due this year, the nation is confronting a crucial financial crossroads.

Portfolio Challenges: Strategy Confronts Market Swings

At its peak valuation in late 2025, El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves were thought to be around $800 million. However, the recent downturn in the market has reduced that estimate by hundreds of millions — at least theoretically.

Though these losses remain unrealized unless the coins are liquidated, they exemplify the risks tied to the volatility of maintaining a digital asset as a major part of national assets.

In an effort to balance the situation, the government recently set aside roughly $50 million for gold acquisitions — a conventional safeguard in times of macroeconomic uncertainty and financial pressure.

IMF Discussions: A Key Hindrance

The second assessment of El Salvador’s 40-month Extended Fund Facility has been on hold since September 2025.

Sources within the IMF have indicated worries that new disbursements might indirectly promote additional Bitcoin purchases instead of fiscal reforms. The absence of a completed review means that the credibility boost usually provided by IMF support is lacking.

Market experts from international asset management firms caution that the absence of IMF backing might diminish investor trust. El Salvador's bonds had staged a remarkable recovery in recent years, showing triple-digit returns — but that resurgence is now under fresh scrutiny.

Debt Pressure Rising

The repayment timeline for the nation heightens the stakes.

• $450 million in bond obligations are due in 2026
• Nearly $700 million is scheduled for repayment in 2027

Increasing levels of credit default swaps indicate that markets are anticipating greater liquidity risks. Observers regard the forthcoming IMF review, expected in March, as crucial for preserving access to capital markets.

Larger Question: Vision or Weakness?

Proponents assert that Bukele’s enduring Bitcoin strategy may ultimately succeed if both adoption and prices recover. Opponents argue that national reserves necessitate stability rather than speculative risks.

The outcome will hinge on three factors:

• The movement of Bitcoin’s pricing
• The proceedings with the IMF
• El Salvador’s capability to handle impending debt responsibilities

At present, the country is at a pivotal juncture where conviction in cryptocurrency collides with fiscal truths.

Disclaimer:
This summary is intended solely for informational purposes and does not qualify as financial, investment, or legal counsel. Bitcoin exhibits significant volatility, and investments in sovereign debt carry considerable default risks. Always perform your own research and seek the advice of a qualified expert before making investment choices.
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