Bitcoin is holding near $79,500–$80,800 after an explosive run from around $62,000 over the past couple of weeks. What stands out: futures open interest has been falling even as price surged — meaning this move has been driven mostly by short-covering, not a wave of fresh leveraged longs. Funding has stayed mostly contained through the rally too, pointing to a healthier structure than a pure leverage melt-up.
📊 Key context • Spot BTC ETFs just logged 8 straight days of net inflows (~$2.8B) — one of the strongest stretches this year • Sell walls are sitting just above $80K; Glassnode flags $83K as the next real demand test • Fear & Greed has warmed to the Greed zone (~65–73), up from neutral two weeks ago — worth watching for FOMO-driven chop
⚡ Today's catalyst The Jackson Hole Symposium wraps up today with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote in the role. This is a real volatility event — Powell's hawkish surprise at Jackson Hole in 2022 triggered a 6% BTC drop. Backdrop: the Treasury has been actively capping long-term yields via bond buybacks (a tailwind for risk assets), while the Fed itself remains focused on above-target inflation, with hike chatter still on the table for September. Today's tone could cut either way.
🎯 Scenarios, not predictions → Dovish/neutral tone from Warsh: continuation toward $81K–$83K is plausible → Hawkish surprise: a pullback toward $77K–$78K support looks more likely This is market analysis, not financial advice — manage your own risk. DYOR.