Gbogbo n ṣe atunyẹwo awọn chart lọwọlọwọ lẹgbẹẹ ipo àlámọ̀rí (geopolitical), pàápàá àwọn ìdàgbàsókè nípa ogun Iran, mo bẹ̀rẹ̀ sí rí àwọn ìbámu díẹ̀ pẹ̀lú ayíká ọja tí a rí ní ọdún tó kọjá. Apapọ ìbànújẹ àlámọ̀rí, ìyípadà nínú àwọn idiyele epo, ìdàgbàsókè nínú yields, àti ìṣípa nínú ìmọ̀lára ewu gbogbogbo jẹ́ kí ipò tó wà báyìí dà bí ẹni pé ó mọ́ra mi díẹ̀.
Kò jẹ́ pé mi ò jẹ́ alamọ̀ja trader tàbí analyst, nítorí náà èyí kì í ṣe asọtẹ́lẹ̀ tó gbẹ́kẹ̀lé, ṣùgbọ́n ìmọ̀ràn ara mi nìkan. Ó ṣeé ṣe kó jẹ́ pé àwọn ìbámu wọ̀nyí túmọ̀ sí kéré gan-an nígbà yìí, àti pé ọjà lè fèsì ní ọ̀nà tó yàtọ̀ patapata.
Síbẹ̀, mo nímọ̀lára pé ó wà ní ìdí tó bọ́gbọ́n mu fún ìmúyọ̀rọ̀ (volatility) tó lè pọ̀ sí i, àti ó ṣeé ṣe kí a tún rí ìṣàtúnṣe tó ṣe pàtàkì mìíràn, bí ohun tí a rí ní Oṣù Kẹwàá ọdún tó kọjá. Ní apa kejì, bí ìforígbárí àlámọ̀rí bá dín kù tàbí bí ipo ọjà bá dára, a lè rí ìfèsì òdì kejì.
Nítorí náà, mi ò ń retí crash, àti mi ò ń sọ pé ìṣubú ńlá kan dájú pé ń bọ̀. Mo kan ń tọju iṣọ́ra díẹ̀ sí i, mo ń ṣọ́ra fún ìjẹ́risi (confirmation), mo sì ń fi wànísẹ̀me mejeeji (bullish) àti (bearish) sí ọkàn. 👀📊
Kí ni gangan ń ṣẹlẹ̀? Pakistan ń gbìyànjú láti tún MOU Islamadabad ṣe, ìlànà àlàáfíà àkókò kékeré US–Iran tí wọ́n fọwọ́ sí ní Oṣù Kẹfà. Pakistan sọ pé ìjíròrò tuntun rẹ̀ pẹ̀lú Iran ti mú “ìlọsíwájú pàtàkì” wá, níbi tí ìfojúsùn wà lórí dínà ìjàmbá kù, Òkun Hormuz, àti fífi ìlànà ìjíròrò US–Iran tún rọ̀ mọ́ níṣọ̀kan. Ir iruan awọn ẹ̀dá pàtàkì púpọ̀: 🇵🇰 Olórí ọmọ ogun Pakistan, Asim Munir, àti Minisita fun Inu, Mohsin Naqvi, pàdé ìgbàlódé ará Iran. 🇺🇸 A ti sọ pé Trump ti bá Munir sọ̀rọ̀ kí ìbẹ̀wò Tehran tó bẹ̀rẹ̀, ó sì rọ Pakistan láti lo ipa rẹ̀ láti mú Iran padà sí ìbáṣepọ̀ ìjíròrò.
A gídi ọba gidi ti ìdoko-owo kì í ṣe wíwá ọjà tó dára jù. Ó jẹ́ ìfarapa + àkókò. 📈
$500/àṣẹ̀ oṣù fún ọdún 30 pẹ̀lú ẹ̀yà ìrísí 10% tí a yá sẹ́yìn nínú ìrònú máa ń dàgbà sí tó ìyẹn $1.13 mílíọ̀nù.
$1,000/àṣẹ̀ oṣù fún ọdún 30 náà? Tó ìyẹn $2.26 mílíọ̀nù.
Èyí ni apá tí àwọn èèyàn sábà máa ń gbàgbé:
Pẹ̀lú $500/àṣẹ̀ oṣù, ìwọ fúnra rẹ̀ ń dá sílẹ̀ díẹ̀ nìkan $180,000 ní ọdún 30. Àwọn míì tó kù, ~$950,000, wá láti ìdàgbàsókè ìdoko-owo.
Pẹ̀lú $1,000/àṣẹ̀ oṣù, o ń dá $360,000 sílẹ̀, nígbà tí tó jẹ́ ~$1.90 mílíọ̀nù wá láti ìpapọ̀pọ̀ (compounding).
Nítorí náà ni mímú iye tí o ń dá sí i ṣe lè jẹ́ ohun tó lágbára gan. Bí o bá dá ìrísí náà àti àkókò náà sílẹ̀, fífi iye oṣù rẹ̀ pọ̀ sí i sí ìlọ́po méjì máa ń ṣe ìlọ́po méjì iye tó máa parí.
Kò sì ní dandan pé kí o máa ń fowó sowo tó pọ̀ púpọ̀ láti ọjọ́ ìbẹ̀rẹ̀. SEC tẹnumọ́ pé ìdoko-owo nígbà gbogbo + àkókò jẹ́ ìbáṣepọ̀ tó lágbára fún ìgbéyàwó ọrọ̀, àti dollar-cost averaging túmọ̀ sí kí o máa ń rọra-ra lárọ̀pọ̀ nípasẹ̀ ìgbéga àti ìkùùku rẹja. (investor.gov)
Àṣàyàn 10% kì í ṣe ileri. Nípa ìtàn, S&P 500 ti ní ìrísí tó ti wà ní ayika 10% lọ́dọọdún ní gbogbo ìtàn rẹ̀, ṣùgbọ́n ìrísí gidi yàtọ̀ gidigidi láàrín ọdún sí ọdún, àti ìṣé àtẹ́yìnwá kò dá àfojúsùn fún ìrírí ọjọ́ iwájú. (fidelity.com)
Àkọ́kọ́ ẹ̀kọ́ tó lágbára jù:
Má ṣe na gbogbo ìgbésí ayé rẹ̀ nípa sáyọ̀ lẹ́yìn ìrísí 1–2% tó kéré sí i tó bá yẹ kó o gbagbé bí o ṣe ń doko-owo.
Mu owó oṣù rẹ̀ pọ̀. Ṣàkóso inawo tí kò wúlò. Doko-owo nígbà gbogbo. Mú kí compounding ní àkókò tó.
Àkókò + ìfarapa + fífi iye díẹ̀ sí i pọ̀ = ọjọ́ iwájú owó tó yàtọ̀ patapata. 💰📊
ANG PINAKALIGTAS NA PANGMATAGALANG MGA STOCKS AY MADALAS YAONG HINDI MASYADONG PINAPANSIN. 📈
Kung nabili ka na ng isang stock dahil lang sa nirekomenda ito ng may nagpo-post sa social media, tandaan ito:
Kapag ang isang stock ay naging sobrang popular, ang presyo nito ay maaaring magsimulang gumalaw nang higit pa sa emosyon at hype kaysa sa aktwal na negosyo.
Bumibili ang mga tao dahil nasasabik sila. Nagbebenta sila dahil natatakot sila. Ngunit minsan, ang kumpanya mismo ay hindi nagbago.
At kapag nawala ang hype, mabilis mong matutuklasan kung sino pa ang kasama mo sa pamumuhunan. Libu-libong tao ang maaaring biglang magmadaling magbenta sa unang senyales ng masamang balita, na lalong nagpapataas ng presyon sa presyo.
Kaya gusto kong tignan ang mga boring na negosyo.
Mga kumpanyang tulad ng Fastenal, Cintas, at Copart maaaring hindi laging nangingibabaw sa social media araw-araw, pero mayroon silang matatag na negosyo, malakas na demand, at pangmatagalang potensyal na paglago.
Kapag ang lahat ay pinag-uusapan ang isang stock, madalas ay binabayaran mo hindi lang ang kumpanya, kundi pati na rin ang excitement.
Ang pangmatagalang pag-iinvest ay hindi laging tungkol sa paghahanap ng susunod na viral na stock.
Minsan, ang pinakamatalinong pagkakataon ay makakita ng magagandang negosyo bago pa magsimulang pag-usapan ng lahat. 🔥
Gawin ang sarili mong research. Huwag bumili nang dahil lang excited ang karamihan.
Ṣùgbọ́n nígbà míì o ní láti wo kọjá àwọn àtẹ̀lẹwọ̀n aláwọ̀ ewé (green candles) kí o sì san ifojú sí àwọn àmì ìkìlọ̀. BTC ti ní ìgbéga gan-an láìpẹ́, ó sì ti gòkè ju 20% lọ ní ọjọ́ díẹ̀ péré, ó sì dé ní ayika $79K. (Investopedia)
Mi ò sọ pé BTC gbọ́dọ̀ ṣubú lónìí. Ìgbéga tó lágbára lè tẹ̀síwájú fún ìgbà tó gùn ju bí a ṣe rò lọ. Ṣùgbọ́n lẹ́yìn ìgbéga tó yára tó bẹ́ẹ̀, wíwò èrè (profit-taking) àti ìṣètò ìdínkù tó dáa (healthy correction) máa ń ṣeé ṣe nígbà gbogbo.
Ìròyìn mi fúnra mi ni pé ó ṣeé ṣe kí BTC má dé $67K lónìí, ṣùgbọ́n mo gbà pé ó dára gan-an pé a lè rí $67K kwá ní àwọn ọjọ́ tó ń bọ̀ tí ìpẹ̀yà tita (selling pressure) bá pọ̀ sí i.
Rántí pé àwọn òja kì í máa gòkè taara láéláé. Bí ó tilẹ̀ jẹ́ pé òun ń lọ sí ìwòyí (bullish trend), BTC lè ṣe ìpadà sẹ́yìn tó jinlẹ̀ (deep pullbacks) kí o tó pinnu ìtọ́sọ́nà rẹ̀ tó tẹ̀síwájú.
Tí BTC bá bá ń ga síi, màá buwọ̀ fún ìtòsí (trend). Ṣùgbọ́n tí a bá bẹ̀rẹ̀ sí rí ìdákẹ́jẹ (rejection) ní ayika àwọn gíga tó wà lọ́wọ́lọ́wọ́, àwọn gíga tí ń kù (lower highs), àti iye tita tó lágbára, màá tọ́jú $72K kọ́kọ́, lẹ́yìn náà $67K.
Ó lè jẹ́ pé mo ṣì lè ṣe aṣìṣe—ohun tí mo sọ̀rọ̀ nìyẹn fún mi nìkan, kì í ṣe ìmọ̀ràn owó (financial advice).
Má lépa àwọn candle aláwọ̀ ewé. Jẹ́ aláyè gbọ́wọ̀, ṣàkóso ewu rẹ, àti jùlọ, dáàbò bo ìwọntúnwọ̀nsì rẹ. 🛡️
How “no talks with Iran” could affect crypto Initial reaction: 🟥 Risk-off If Trump confirms that there are no talks and none are scheduled, markets may interpret that as: No talks → higher escalation risk → Hormuz disruption → oil ↑ → inflation fears ↑ → yields ↑ → risk assets ↓ Crypto is still strongly influenced by global liquidity and risk appetite, so BTC/ETH can initially behave more like risk assets than safe havens. That is already visible today: BTC has remained around $64K despite the geopolitical escalation rather than immediately behaving like gold. 🔴 BTC — bearish risk if escalation increases The most dangerous scenario for BTC would be: 🇺🇸 U.S.–Iran tensions escalate ↓ 🛢️ Oil > $90 and continues higher ↓ 📈 Inflation expectations increase ↓ 📈 Treasury yields increase ↓ 💵 USD strengthens ↓ 📉 Stocks + crypto sell off Reuters reports Brent around $91/barrel and U.S. 30-year Treasury yields at their highest level in 19 years. That’s an unfavorable combination for speculative assets. But BTC has an important strength BTC is currently holding around $64K, even with the geopolitical shock. That is actually interesting. If BTC repeatedly tests the $63K–$64K region and buyers continue defending it, the market may be absorbing the geopolitical risk. A strong BTC reclaim above the mid-$64Ks would therefore be more meaningful than simply looking at the Iran headline. 🟣 ETH — more vulnerable than BTC ETH is around $1,900 currently. If risk-off conditions accelerate, I would expect: BTC → relatively stronger ETH → potentially weaker ALTCOINS → highest risk Why? During geopolitical shocks, liquidity normally concentrates into the largest and most liquid assets first. ETH and especially smaller altcoins can experience larger percentage moves. So I would not aggressively long altcoins simply because BTC is holding $64K. 🟢 But there is a VERY bullish scenario for crypto This is the important part. Suppose the current situation suddenly changes: Trump/Iran talks restart → Hormuz reopening becomes likely → Oil falls → Inflation fears decrease → Treasury yields fall → USD weakens → Stocks recover → Risk appetite returns → BTC/ETH could move sharply higher That would potentially be much more bullish for crypto than the current geopolitical situation. We’ve already seen how sensitive crypto is to U.S.–Iran developments: when ceasefire/deal expectations improved previously, BTC moved higher alongside broader risk assets. ⚠️ The biggest thing I would watch Don’t watch only BTC. Watch these four together: BTC ↑ Oil ↓ US yields ↓ DXY ↓ ➡️ Very bullish environment for crypto. But: BTC ↓ Oil ↑ Yields ↑ DXY ↑ ➡️ Very dangerous environment for crypto longs. 📌 For your ETH trading specifically With ETH around $1,900, I would not chase a long purely because of the Iran headline. I would rather wait for confirmation that ETH can hold/reclaim resistance while BTC remains stable and oil/yields stop rising. Current bias: BTC: 🟡 Neutral / cautious ETH: 🟡 Neutral-to-bearish Altcoins: 🔴 High risk If diplomatic talks suddenly restart: 🟢 Strong bullish reversal potential The market is currently caught between geopolitical fear and the possibility of a sudden diplomatic headline, so fake breakouts and violent liquidation wicks are especially likely right now.
The 60-day negotiation/ceasefire period has expired without a new agreement. The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, and the latest reporting says Iran is taking a harder position on keeping the waterway closed unless U.S. conditions are addressed.
There has also been a vessel hit in the Strait of Hormuz, with one reported death, while Trump has made increasingly aggressive statements regarding Oman and the reopening of the strait.
However: there are still diplomatic contacts, including Iran/Oman discussions about managing shipping through Hormuz. So this isn’t necessarily a straight path toward immediate escalation.
🛢️ Oil — BIG warning signal
Brent is now around $91/barrel, while WTI is around $85. Reuters reports Brent at about $90.94, its highest level since late July.
The project has a stronger fundamental story than many small-cap coins:
* Dusk mainnet is live. * It is targeting regulated financial markets and tokenized securities. * DuskEVM gives it Ethereum-compatible smart-contract functionality. * DUSK has actual network utility through gas and staking.
Technically, recent coverage has highlighted strong momentum and a previous 12-month high, with $0.50 discussed as an aggressive upside target if the bullish structure continues. However, that is a scenario—not a guaranteed target.