SentioAurum

Coverage: $BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BNB · #Stablecoins
Week Ending: February 15, 2026
🔹 Executive Liquidity Summary
Stablecoin supply expanded +1.85% WoW, indicating improving base liquidity.
BTC dominance declined modestly (58.6% → 58.2%), consistent with controlled rotation.
ETF flows remain mixed after recent inflow/outflow shifts.
Funding remains contained; Open Interest elevated but not overheated.
Participation breadth remains selective despite improving liquidity conditions.
Liquidity improved — deployment remains measured.
📊 Volatility Regime: Elevated
📈 Liquidity Composite Index (LCI): 7/10 ↑ — Liquidity Expansion
LCI increased as stablecoin expansion and marginal dominance easing improved liquidity breadth.
🟠 Bitcoin — Anchor Liquidity
Price: $70,248.64
7D: +2.11%
Dominance: 58.2% (↓0.4pp WoW)
ETF Regime: Mixed
Funding (avg): ~0.0022%
Open Interest (pro view): $98.31B (↑3.61%)
Liquidity Driver: Mixed
Interpretation:
BTC remains the structural anchor of the cycle. Dominance eased marginally, suggesting selective capital rotation rather than structural weakening. Elevated OI introduces reflexivity sensitivity but not systemic stress.
🔵 Ethereum — Transitional Capital
Price: $2,073.37
7D: -1%
Dominance: 10.4%
ETH/BTC: Mild relative improvement
DEX Volume (7D): -45.91%
Stablecoins on ETH: $158.263B (+2.43% WoW)
Liquidity Driver: Spot
Interpretation:
ETH remains transitional. Liquidity exists, but participation intensity softened week-over-week. Rotation remains conditional, not broad-based.
🟣 Solana — Velocity Layer
Price: $89.01
7D: +1.8%
Active Addresses (24h): ~2.22M
Stablecoins on SOL: $15.074B (+2.93% WoW)
DEX Volume (7D): -42.08%
Open Interest: $4.95B
Liquidity Driver: Mixed
Interpretation:
Velocity metrics remain elevated, but trading intensity contracted sharply. Deployment remains selective despite base liquidity improvement.
🟡 BNB — Structural Utility
Price: $636.47
7D: -0.45%
Stablecoins on BSC: $13.887B (+0.75% WoW)
DEX Volume (7D): -41.69%
Perps Volume (7D): +21.26%
Liquidity Driver: Mixed
Interpretation:
BNB reflects structural ecosystem activity rather than speculative acceleration. Derivatives participation outpaced spot expansion.
🟢 Stablecoins — Base Liquidity
Total Market Cap: $307.584B
7D: +1.85%
30D: -1.09%
USDT Share: 59.73%
Interpretation:
Base liquidity expanded week-over-week, supporting broader risk conditions. Monthly contraction remains visible but stabilizing.
🔬 Structural Layer — SOL Stablecoin & Velocity Context
SOL stablecoin base expanded +2.93% WoW while DEX activity contracted.
Interpretation:
Network engagement persists, but liquidity deployment remains cautious. Structural participation remains differentiated from speculative volume.
🔁 Capital Rotation Map
Tier 1 — Base Liquidity: Expanding
Tier 2 — Anchor Asset: Dominant (marginal easing)
Tier 3 — Transitional Capital: Neutral
Tier 4 — Velocity Layer: Selective
Tier 5 — Structural Utility: Stable
Rotation remains selective rather than broad.
⚠️ Risk Dashboard
Leverage Risk: Moderate (elevated OI; funding neutral)
ETF Flow Risk: Mixed
Liquidity Risk: Low (stablecoin base expanding)
Macro Risk: Elevated volatility backdrop
📌 Tiered Liquidity Snapshot
Tier 1 — Expanding
Tier 2 — Dominant
Tier 3 — Neutral
Tier 4 — Selective
Tier 5 — Stable
Data Sources: DeFiLlama · CoinGlass · CoinMarketCap · Farside · Glassnode
For research purposes only. Not financial advice.

Market Context
$BTC is currently trading in a compressed range following the latest macro liquidity recalibration. Historically, periods of volatility contraction often precede expansion phases.
But the key question:
Is this accumulation… or distribution?
🔎 Data Snapshot
1️⃣ Open Interest (OI)
OI elevated but not at cycle highs
Leverage moderately positive
No extreme funding imbalance
2️⃣ Funding Rates
Neutral to slightly positive
No retail euphoria detected
3️⃣ Realized Cap Trend
Steady upward slope
Long-term holders remain net accumulators
4️⃣ ETF Flows
Net inflows stabilizing
No panic outflows
📈 Interpretation
We are not seeing:
Blow-off top leverage
Excessive retail funding spikes
Extreme profit-taking
This resembles mid-cycle compression, not exhaustion.
Historically, similar structures led to:
15–30% expansion moves
Short squeeze setups
Liquidity grabs before trend continuation
⚠️ Risk Scenario
Bear case triggers:
Daily close below liquidity pocket
Negative funding spike with rising OI
Macro tightening surprise
If those align, downside acceleration increases.
🧠 Strategic Insight
Current structure favors:
Gradual positioning over leverage
Spot accumulation > Perpetuals
Monitoring liquidity pools, not narratives
Markets move where liquidity is trapped.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.

The initial hype surrounding Bitcoin has subsided, and the asset is now demonstrating its viability in the current market. This report provides an unfiltered assessment of Bitcoin as of mid-June 2025, encompassing market sentiment, technical analysis, and significant influencing factors.

1. Price Movement and Market Sentiment

* Current Price: \$107,038.26 (-2.43% in 24 hours; +2.36% over 7 days).
* Market Sentiment: Currently exhibiting a bearish bias due to profit-taking activities, although key support levels have been maintained.

2. Consolidation Phase

* Trading Range: The asset has been trading within a range of \$103,000 to \$110,000 over the past two weeks.
* 100-Day Moving Average (MA): The \$105,500 level is acting as a strong support level.
* Volatility: Realized volatility has decreased below 38%, indicating increased liquidity and reduced price fluctuations.

3. Technical Analysis

* 1-Hour Chart: A clear downtrend is observed, with a decline towards \$104,200. The "death cross" formation, where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggests a sell signal.
* Volume Analysis: Trading volume increased during the price decline and decreased during the subsequent rebound, indicating limited buying interest.
* Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory (30–40), and the Average Directional Index (ADX) exceeding 25 confirms the strength of the current trend.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance Levels: \$105,000 (20 EMA) and \$107,000 (200 SMA).
* Support Levels: \$103,000 (recent lows) and \$101,000 (psychological level).

4. Macroeconomic Influences

* Institutional Investment: Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to attract capital from institutional investors, including pension funds and asset managers.
* Post-Halving Dynamics: The Bitcoin supply issuance was halved in April 2024, leading to increased scarcity, with miners and holders maintaining their positions.
* Federal Reserve Policy: The pause in interest rate hikes and the stabilization of inflation are reinforcing Bitcoin's position as a "digital gold" asset.

5. Future Outlook

* Bullish Scenario: If the \$103,145 level (daily 0.236 Fibonacci level) is maintained, a potential push beyond \$111,000 could be expected, followed by a retest of the all-time high (ATH) near \$112,000, and potentially reaching \$115,000.
* Bearish Scenario: A breach below the \$103,000 support level could lead to a decline towards \$97,000, with the potential for further downside to \$93,000 if the selling pressure intensifies.
$BTC
#BTC110KToday? #MarketRebound