🧭 INTC favors a downside long-liquidation sweep first. Although cumulative shorts are larger, dense longs at 82.4–84 sit closer to price than the major short cluster around 90–92, with successive prominent liquidation peaks.
🔻 The first target is 85–85.5. Losing 85 without reclaiming it shifts focus to 83.2–84. A further sweep below 83.2 brings 82.4–82.8 into focus, where liquidations could amplify the decline.
🔺 Above price, shorts build around 88.2–89.8, then concentrate heavily at 90–92, with notable peaks near 90.9 and 91.9. Clearing this cluster opens the next target at 92.5–93.
⚖️ The preferred sequence is a downside sweep, then assessing a reclaim of 85. Clearing and holding above 88.5 first weakens this view and shifts focus to 90–92. Avoid catching the bottom inside 83.2–84 before price reclaims a lost level.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.75% wide. The downtrend has lasted 23 hours 25 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 30.13%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.69% wide. The downtrend has lasted 2 hours 13 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 14.57%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 MSTR favors a nearby upside short sweep first. The 146.9–148.5 cluster sits close to price and stands out against nearby longs, while the densest long-liquidation band lies farther below at 136.8–140.
🔺 The first target is 146.9–148.5. Clearing and holding above 148.5 shifts focus to 149.9–150.6, where prominent liquidation peaks could amplify the rally.
🎯 Density thins beyond 150.6 until roughly 151.8. Sustained momentum brings 152.5–154.5 into focus, followed by a distant peak near 158.3.
⚖️ The short-sweep-first scenario retains its edge above 143.5. Losing that level without reclaiming it shifts attention to 141.5–142.5, then 136.8–140. Cumulative longs still outweigh shorts, so an upside sweep alone does not confirm a bullish reversal; avoid chasing if price reaches 148.5 and falls below 146.9.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 1.14% wide. The downtrend has lasted 10 hours 25 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 8.19%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 H4 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 6.74% wide. The downtrend has lasted 27 days 16 hours, with a maximum recorded price decline of 39.19%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 24/10/2026
Across 844 days of data, the correlation between FGI and daily Win Rate is approximately r = -0.293, compared with -0.304 in the previous update. The relationship remains negative but has weakened further, providing insufficient evidence to use FGI alone as a trade entry tool.
Trading performance in the sample tends to be lower during periods of greed, particularly extreme greed. FGI may provide context for assessing risk, but this correlation does not establish early-warning capability or causation.
Below are the average daily Win Rate (WR), theoretical breakeven R, and number of observed days (n) for each sentiment zone. R is expressed as risk, excluding fees and slippage:
➤ These statistics illustrate the relationship between Win Rate and the R required to break even:
📈 At higher FGI levels, historical WR is lower, implying a higher breakeven reward relative to risk. However, setting more distant profit targets may change the Win Rate itself.
📉 At lower FGI levels, historical WR is higher, implying a lower breakeven reward relative to risk. This alone does not establish that reducing profit targets would accelerate capital turnover or improve performance.
🧭 ARB favors an upside short-liquidation sweep first. Cumulative shorts exceed longs by over five times, with successive dense clusters around 0.173–0.1775. No comparable liquidation concentration sits below price.
🔺 The first target is 0.1677–0.1695. Clearing and holding above 0.1695 shifts focus to 0.173–0.1775, with prominent peaks around 0.175–0.176. Successive liquidations here could amplify the rally.
🎯 Density drops noticeably beyond 0.178 until roughly 0.1815. Sustained momentum through the nearer cluster brings 0.1845–0.1885 into focus, with a major peak near 0.1862.
⚖️ The upside scenario retains its edge above 0.1649. Losing that level without reclaiming it shifts attention to longs at 0.1615–0.1635. Avoid chasing if price sweeps 0.1775 and falls below 0.175, as that weakens the case for an extension toward the distant cluster.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 0.97% wide. The downtrend has lasted 9 hours 50 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 6.02%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 2.97% wide. The downtrend has lasted 1 hour 56 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 14.03%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 PAXG favors a downside long-liquidation sweep first. Although cumulative shorts are larger, dense longs at 3,950–3,970 sit closer to price than the major short clusters, with a prominent liquidation peak near 3,960.
🔻 The first target is 3,980–4,000. Losing 3,980 without reclaiming it shifts focus to 3,950–3,970. A further sweep below 3,950 brings the 3,910–3,940 long-liquidation band into focus.
🔺 Above price, shorts sit around 4,030–4,045, followed by 4,075–4,095 and 4,105–4,125. A larger cluster at 4,190–4,220 provides a target for an extended short sweep.
⚖️ The preferred sequence is a downside sweep, then assessing a reclaim of 3,980. Clearing and holding above 4,045 first weakens this view and shifts focus to 4,075–4,095, then 4,105–4,125. Avoid buying solely because price reaches 3,960 while it is still cutting through the liquidation cluster.
Bitcoin loses recovery momentum as ETF flows reverse late in the week
📉 During October 19–24, Bitcoin returned to the $80,000–81,000 range after a recovery failed to clear $85,000. ETH traded near $2,370, while many altcoins remained under pressure, suggesting the rebound lacked broad participation.
💸 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.075 billion over the first three sessions, followed by withdrawals of $635.6 million on October 22 and $137.9 million on October 23. The week still recorded net inflows of roughly $301.2 million, but the final two sessions erased most of the earlier gains, highlighting inconsistent demand through ETFs.
🌐 Weakness in technology stocks and rising oil prices added to inflation concerns, weighing on risk appetite. Against this backdrop, the reversal in ETF flows made crypto’s recovery harder to sustain.
⚖️ Liquidations concentrated in long positions amplified the decline. ETH and SOL’s weaker performance relative to Bitcoin also suggested caution toward more volatile assets, offering limited evidence of a broader positive rotation within crypto.
🔎 Next week, attention turns to BTC’s response around $80,000, ETF flows when U.S. markets reopen, and the October 27–28 Fed meeting. Holding this price area alongside stronger buying would help support a recovery; continued selling would leave the market exposed to further liquidations.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 0.82% wide. The downtrend has lasted 6 hours 2 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 17.98%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 1.47% wide. The downtrend has lasted 2 hours 27 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 7.88%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
🧭 WLFI favors a downside long-liquidation sweep first. Dense clusters at 0.0516–0.0528 sit close below price, with prominent peaks near 0.0523 and 0.0526. Cumulative longs also slightly outweigh shorts.
🔻 The first target is 0.0523–0.0528. Losing 0.0523 without reclaiming it shifts focus to 0.0516–0.0520. Successive liquidation clusters across this band could extend the decline after the nearest pocket is swept.
🔺 Above price, nearby shorts sit around 0.0534–0.0536, while the more substantial cluster spans 0.0546–0.0555. Farther targets lie at 0.057–0.0581, with a major peak near 0.0581.
⚖️ The preferred sequence is a downside sweep, then assessing a reclaim of 0.0528. Clearing and holding above 0.0536 first weakens this view and shifts focus to 0.0546–0.0555. Avoid buying solely because price reaches 0.0526 while it is still cutting through the long-liquidation cluster.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 1.24% wide. The downtrend has lasted 21 hours 40 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 7.83%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
Higher feedstock costs support chemical prices as producer profitability diverges
🏭 During October 19–23, chemical markets remained influenced by elevated energy costs and Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Upward pressure on PE and PP prices emerged in some regions, although producers’ ability to pass costs through depended on demand and alternative supplies.
🛢️ For naphtha-based plants in Asia and Europe, higher feedstock costs squeeze margins when product prices fail to keep pace. US ethane-based producers retain a relative cost advantage, creating differences in profitability across feedstocks and levels of production integration.
📊 Dow’s third-quarter results highlighted the role of pricing. Revenue rose 13% year over year, with selling prices increasing 14% while sales volumes declined 1%. Its Packaging & Specialty Plastics business improved integrated margins through higher PE prices and internal efficiency measures.
⚖️ These results suggest some producers can benefit from stronger pricing and favorable cost structures, but do not establish a broad recovery in industry demand. Weak purchasing activity in some markets continues to limit price increases, particularly where customers can postpone orders.
🔎 Near-term attention centers on oil prices, Middle Eastern feedstock availability and actual PE/PP price increases. Longer term, excess capacity continues to intensify competition, limiting the extent to which supply-driven price gains can sustain a lasting recovery in profitability.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is approximately 0.76% wide. The downtrend has lasted 3 hours 18 minutes, with a maximum recorded price decline of 4.54%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend is highly likely to reverse upward.
Oil rallies during October 19–23 as Middle East supply risks outweigh demand concerns
🛢️ Brent ended the week at $116.72 a barrel, up 6.2% and its highest close since late April, while WTI reached $103.27. Middle East tensions remained the main driver as markets weighed potential disruptions to energy production and shipping.
🚢 Attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz increased supply uncertainty. Even as oil flows recover, the risk of interrupted deliveries keeps prices sensitive to regional security developments.
🏭 Pressure also extends to diesel, with Middle Eastern fuel exports recovering more slowly than crude shipments while Russian supplies have declined. The IEA expects diesel markets to remain tight into 2027, prolonging cost pressures on transport and manufacturing.
📦 US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week ended October 16, exceeding expectations. However, distillate stocks rose by around 1.68 million barrels, highlighting differing conditions across product markets.
⚖️ High prices are also weighing on consumption. In its October 14 report, the IEA forecast global oil demand would decline by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026. Next week, Hormuz shipping security, fuel inventories and diplomatic signals will help assess whether supply pressures continue to outweigh weakening demand.