This Mid-Autumn Festival, I’m celebrating with a special Binance inspired moon cake crafted with golden flavors, a touch of creativity, and a whole lot of 💛
May the moon shine bright, the moments be sweet, and the journey go To the Moon! 🚀🌕
Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, and now the market has another major event to digest: CPI is around the corner.
The stronger-than-expected jobs data makes the Fed’s decision more interesting. A resilient labor market gives policymakers less pressure to ease quickly, especially if inflation is still proving sticky.
But does that mean a rate hike is coming?
Personally, I think a hold is still more likely than a hike. The Fed has to balance two things: keeping inflation under control while avoiding unnecessary damage to the economy. One strong employment report alone probably isn’t enough to justify another hike if inflation continues to cool.
That’s why CPI could be the real market mover.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the market could start pricing in a more hawkish Fed. That would likely put pressure on rate-sensitive stocks and risk assets, while potentially supporting the dollar and keeping yields elevated.
On the other hand, a softer CPI could completely change the mood. If inflation continues moving lower while employment remains strong, the Fed could potentially stay on hold without needing to become more aggressive.
So right now, I’m cautiously bullish, but I’m not chasing the market before CPI.
I’m keeping a close eye on stocks and gold. Gold is particularly interesting because its reaction to inflation, yields and Fed expectations can be sharp. Stocks could also see a strong move depending on whether CPI strengthens or weakens the rate-cut narrative.
For me, the key question isn’t simply “bullish or bearish?”
It’s what will CPI tell us about the Fed’s next move?
Strong NFP + hot CPI = potentially bearish for risk assets.
Strong NFP + soft CPI = potentially bullish, because it could support the idea of a soft landing.
That’s the setup I’m watching.
My current bias: cautiously bullish, Fed hold > hike, but CPI decides the next move.
What about you?
Are you bullish or bearish going into CPI? And are you holding stocks, gold, or staying in cash until the data drops? $BTC
Previously, I used to think Dusk was mainly about putting financial assets on a blockchain and giving them more privacy. I saw it as another Layer-1 focused on tokenized assets, and honestly, that felt like the whole story.
But the deeper I looked into Dusk, the more I started seeing a much bigger ambition.
Financial markets aren’t just about issuing an asset. After an asset is created, there are investors, ownership transfers, trading, settlement, compliance, and sensitive information involved at almost every stage. Simply putting a token on-chain doesn’t automatically make the entire financial process better.
That’s where Dusk became more interesting to me.
Its Layer-1 is being designed specifically around financial applications, with confidential smart contracts and the Confidential Security Contract, or XSC, standard forming an important part of that approach.
What really changed my perspective was privacy. .: I used to think that the more transparent a blockchain was, the better it was. But finance doesn’t always work that way. An investor may want privacy, while institutions and regulators still need the ability to verify information when necessary.
That balance is difficult, but it is also what makes Dusk worth watching….
The bigger vision doesn’t seem to be simply putting finance on-chain.
It’s about building blockchain infrastructure where financial activity can happen with programmability, settlement, and privacy working together.
Whether that vision becomes practical at scale is still something I want to see.
But that’s exactly why I’m keeping an eye on Dusk. @Dusk #Dusk $DUSK