Price went slightly lower than expected and retested the range lows before giving me the reaction I was looking for. But in the end, we got it, and that’s what matters.
If you took this trade with me, you can book 50% here and move your stops to break even to cut your risk entirely.
CryptoLinus
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$BTC looks good for a long here.
After a short deviation below the range and multiple sweeps of the lows, price has now found acceptance back inside the range.
We also saw a bullish market structure shift on lower timeframes, which makes another bounce from here even more likely.
This would also line up with the narrative I shared in my previous post.
My first target sits around the range highs near $84.9k. If buyers manage to reclaim that level, I’d expect price to continue toward $86k and potentially even the unswept highs around $87.3k.
Either buyers keep on defending $83k and find the strenght to break above this descending trendline, which would likely send price back towards $87k.
Or buyers fail to hold this level and aggressive selling persists. This would shift focus lower as a break below $83k would make a sweep of the low around $80k increasingly likely.
That move would also take out the major liquidity cluster I’ve highlighted in several of my previous posts.
Either way, $83k remains our most crucial support and therefore the key level to watch for now, as it will likely decide which of these two scenarios comes into play next.
Both my swing long positions from 59.4K and 76.2K, along with my spot from 59.6K, will remain untouched. I won't be taking any profits until a new ATH is made.
My ideal sell zone remains around 160K, and price should be near that area around June/July/August 2028.
As price moves higher over the next 2 years, I'm planning to open another 2 swing longs targeting 160K.
After a short deviation below the range and multiple sweeps of the lows, price has now found acceptance back inside the range.
We also saw a bullish market structure shift on lower timeframes, which makes another bounce from here even more likely.
This would also line up with the narrative I shared in my previous post.
My first target sits around the range highs near $84.9k. If buyers manage to reclaim that level, I’d expect price to continue toward $86k and potentially even the unswept highs around $87.3k.
Given that everyone missed the "Q4 bottom," this is now the new profound scenario everyone is watching and hoping for.
I mean, if I had been waiting for Q4 and watched price rally the way it has, I would probably be praying for this too. That said, there are many differences between the two.
In 2023, when $BTC rallied to 25K, it created equal high before rejecting. There was no meaningful close above the level, no significant high established above 25K, it simply rejected almost immediately. It only deviated above the local lower high and formed an EQH.
Currently, BTC has created a weekly higher high. That is a completely different shift in market structure. We are now ranging above the previous highs that were flipped, which is a very different dynamic to 2023. On top of that, the bear market drawdown was roughly 77% in that cycle, whereas this one was around 54%.
If we apply the same logic of diminishing returns and shallower retests, the largest pullbacks during this bull market are likely closer to 10-15% all the way up to 126K.
A 10% drop brings BTC to roughly 78K. A 15% drop brings it to around 74K. So even if we followed this fractal identically, it would not necessarily produce the meaningful sweep below the lows that we saw in 2023. The fractal cannot mirror perfectly, even if price retraces below the prior range high.
Regardless, I’m sure a large number of sidelined traders would love the opportunity to long the area they missed. The market has a funny way of not giving people exactly what they want.
With OI reset and price ranging above prior highs, the market looks healthy to me. This is not the scenario I am positioning for; I am still looking towards the 90Ks.
Just thought I would comment on it, as I am seeing this everywhere, exactly like when everyone was waiting for the bottom in Q4.
Today we saw an aggressive selloff where price repeatedly swept the lows, continuously flushing longs out of the market.
However, instead of pushing lower after those sweeps, BTC has now reversed and closed back above the lows of the previous range.
If price can find further acceptance back inside this range, another continuation to the upside becomes possible.
First toward the range highs, and if bullish momentum is strong enough, potentially back into the $87k region.
While this is a possible scenario, we still need to keep in mind that structure is bearish for now, meaning a failed reclaim could quickly shift momentum back to the downside.
Never let anyone tell you it “looks too easy” to play out.
Sometimes it literally is that easy... $BTC
Do not overcomplicate HTF positioning. There is still a lot of money to be made on the move towards 126K, as long as you are not an overleveraged gambler.
Bitcoin pumped 4% last week and closed at $84,445, its highest weekly close in 8 months and second consecutive close above the Weekly MA 50.
So how did Bitcoin go from $57K to $87K?
BTC spent 11 weeks testing the Weekly MA 200 and it held as support. During that time, MACD turned bullish, RSI showed a bullish divergence and momentum started shifting toward bulls.
Then BTC broke above $67K and spent the next 4 weeks testing the Weekly MA 50, while $75K held as support.
Once Bitcoin finally closed above the Weekly MA 50, another short squeeze pushed BTC above $86K.
Meanwhile, the macro data was also improving: - ISM hit 55.6, a 4 year high. - Russell 2000 broke to a new ATH. - Core inflation cooled toward a 5 year low.
Important levels: - Support: Weekly MA 50 at $77,670 | Daily MA 200 at $71,100 - Resistance: $87K to $98K
Important events this week: - ISM: Thursday - Jobs Friday
Bitcoin is sitting around $83.6K after spending the last few days consolidating below the $87K area.
I’m still watching $79.5K very closely here.
That was the major breakout level before the move higher, and BTC is still comfortably above it. As long as that level holds, I don’t think the broader structure has been broken.
On the upside, $87K remains the big level.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim that area and actually hold above it if we’re going to see another strong push higher.
For now, I’m watching how BTC behaves between $79.5K and $87K.
If $79.5K holds, the structure remains intact.
If $87K breaks and holds, things could start getting interesting again.
Once the 50/100 on the weekly flips, you simply long.
Scalp shorting these lower regions look ridiculous when you zoom out. Imagine looking back in 1-2 years, with $BTC at 160K, and realizing you were shorting here.
It will be a sight for sore eyes. I’ll be riding the move higher with long exposure + spot exposure, and I’m confident I’ll outperform 99% by doing less.