MurtiTheTrader
503 ໂພສ
MurtiTheTrader
ລາຍງານ
ບລັອກຜູ້ໃຊ້
US stocks, options flow and crypto. Data-driven daily market notes, no FOMO. Risk first, always. Not financial advice.
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55 ຜູ້ຕິດຕາມ
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The market is running on 3 assumptions. One of them is wrong long term.
→ 1) AI infrastructure is the loser: right, but narrow. The real damage is in the pure-play data center names (Vertiv −13%). The −10–12% hit to grid builders like Quanta and Eaton is an overreaction.
→ 2) If the capex pauses, the hyperscalers get relief: true today, but long term Microsoft $MSFT and Amazon $AMZN are the ones who get hurt.
Watching: $BTC
#AI #Stocks
The market is running on 3 assumptions. One of them is wrong long term.
→ 1) AI infrastructure is the loser: right, but narrow. The real damage is in the pure-play data center names (Vertiv −13%). The −10–12% hit to grid builders like Quanta and Eaton is an overreaction.
→ 2) If the capex pauses, the hyperscalers get relief: true today, but long term Microsoft $MSFT and Amazon $AMZN are the ones who get hurt.
Watching: $BTC
#AI #Stocks
→ 1) AI infrastructure is the loser: right, but narrow. The real damage is in the pure-play data center names (Vertiv −13%). The −10–12% hit to grid builders like Quanta and Eaton is an overreaction.
→ 2) If the capex pauses, the hyperscalers get relief: true today, but long term Microsoft $MSFT and Amazon $AMZN are the ones who get hurt.
Watching: $BTC
#AI #Stocks
41
Final hour: the S&P 500 is up 1.8% at 7,704. If it closes here, it's the best day in 3 months.
VIX down 19.5% to 16.8, 10-year yield down 8 bps to 4.89%.
Equal-weight S&P +1.7%, Russell 2000 +1.5%. The rally is broad-based.
My read: once the election uncertainty cleared, the hedges got sold, and the VIX crush shows it.
Into the close: A) the S&P closes above 7,700, or B) worst case: a last-hour selloff drags it back to the 7,636 open. Drop your call below.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting? #Stocks #Economy
Final hour: the S&P 500 is up 1.8% at 7,704. If it closes here, it's the best day in 3 months.
VIX down 19.5% to 16.8, 10-year yield down 8 bps to 4.89%.
Equal-weight S&P +1.7%, Russell 2000 +1.5%. The rally is broad-based.
My read: once the election uncertainty cleared, the hedges got sold, and the VIX crush shows it.
Into the close: A) the S&P closes above 7,700, or B) worst case: a last-hour selloff drags it back to the 7,636 open. Drop your call below.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting? #Stocks #Economy
VIX down 19.5% to 16.8, 10-year yield down 8 bps to 4.89%.
Equal-weight S&P +1.7%, Russell 2000 +1.5%. The rally is broad-based.
My read: once the election uncertainty cleared, the hedges got sold, and the VIX crush shows it.
Into the close: A) the S&P closes above 7,700, or B) worst case: a last-hour selloff drags it back to the 7,636 open. Drop your call below.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting? #Stocks #Economy
51
FOMO check: Everyone's saying "Democrats won, solar goes to the moon, buy now." First Solar hit +15.6% intraday, now it's +6.4% and more than half the gain is gone.
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
FOMO check: Everyone's saying "Democrats won, solar goes to the moon, buy now." First Solar hit +15.6% intraday, now it's +6.4% and more than half the gain is gone.
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
97
After the open: Money ran to the giants; Microsoft +6.6%, Amazon +6.2%, Apple +6.0% and S&P 500 +1.2%.
→ Losses deepened in the power infrastructure sold this morning: Quanta −12.9%, GE Vernova −11.7%
→ Nvidia −2.3%, Micron −6.1%
→ VIX −14% to 17.9, 10-year yield 4.90%
I think the +1% in futures didn't melt because software and consumer giants carried the load, not chips. Worst case: if Nvidia's drop exceeds 5%, the 3 giants carrying the index alone won't be enough; watching closely.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Investing #NASDAQ
After the open: Money ran to the giants; Microsoft +6.6%, Amazon +6.2%, Apple +6.0% and S&P 500 +1.2%.
→ Losses deepened in the power infrastructure sold this morning: Quanta −12.9%, GE Vernova −11.7%
→ Nvidia −2.3%, Micron −6.1%
→ VIX −14% to 17.9, 10-year yield 4.90%
I think the +1% in futures didn't melt because software and consumer giants carried the load, not chips. Worst case: if Nvidia's drop exceeds 5%, the 3 giants carrying the index alone won't be enough; watching closely.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Investing #NASDAQ
→ Losses deepened in the power infrastructure sold this morning: Quanta −12.9%, GE Vernova −11.7%
→ Nvidia −2.3%, Micron −6.1%
→ VIX −14% to 17.9, 10-year yield 4.90%
I think the +1% in futures didn't melt because software and consumer giants carried the load, not chips. Worst case: if Nvidia's drop exceeds 5%, the 3 giants carrying the index alone won't be enough; watching closely.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Investing #NASDAQ
220
Pre-market: S&P futures are up 1.0%, but AI's power infrastructure is getting sold; Quanta −7.2%, GE Vernova −6.5%.
→ Vertiv −6.3%, Constellation −5.1%, Nvidia −1.3%
→ Miners lead with Newmont +5.5% and Agnico Eagle +6.0%
→ Russell 2000 futures +1.7%, 4x Nasdaq's
My take: post-election money is rotating out of the most crowded theme into small caps and miners. Worst case: if the selling spreads to Nvidia after the open, the +1% in futures melts fast. My eye is on Nvidia.
#Stocks #AI $GEV $PWR
Pre-market: S&P futures are up 1.0%, but AI's power infrastructure is getting sold; Quanta −7.2%, GE Vernova −6.5%.
→ Vertiv −6.3%, Constellation −5.1%, Nvidia −1.3%
→ Miners lead with Newmont +5.5% and Agnico Eagle +6.0%
→ Russell 2000 futures +1.7%, 4x Nasdaq's
My take: post-election money is rotating out of the most crowded theme into small caps and miners. Worst case: if the selling spreads to Nvidia after the open, the +1% in futures melts fast. My eye is on Nvidia.
#Stocks #AI $GEV $PWR
→ Vertiv −6.3%, Constellation −5.1%, Nvidia −1.3%
→ Miners lead with Newmont +5.5% and Agnico Eagle +6.0%
→ Russell 2000 futures +1.7%, 4x Nasdaq's
My take: post-election money is rotating out of the most crowded theme into small caps and miners. Worst case: if the selling spreads to Nvidia after the open, the +1% in futures melts fast. My eye is on Nvidia.
#Stocks #AI $GEV $PWR
1
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Post-election: Democrats took both chambers of Congress. In the previous 7 instances since 1954, the S&P 500 was higher one year later 7 out of 7 times.
→ Average: +10.7% in 3 months, +17.5% in 6 months, +15.5% in 1 year
→ First month positive in 6 of 7, with a double-digit drop in 1974
→ ES futures tagged 7,490 overnight, then flipped to +1.1%
My take: 7 for 7 is strong, but the sample is small, and the first month could stumble like 1974. Worst case: if futures drop below 7,490, the election rally lasts a single day. I'm watching that level closely.
#Investing #SP500
Post-election: Democrats took both chambers of Congress. In the previous 7 instances since 1954, the S&P 500 was higher one year later 7 out of 7 times.
→ Average: +10.7% in 3 months, +17.5% in 6 months, +15.5% in 1 year
→ First month positive in 6 of 7, with a double-digit drop in 1974
→ ES futures tagged 7,490 overnight, then flipped to +1.1%
My take: 7 for 7 is strong, but the sample is small, and the first month could stumble like 1974. Worst case: if futures drop below 7,490, the election rally lasts a single day. I'm watching that level closely.
#Investing #SP500
→ Average: +10.7% in 3 months, +17.5% in 6 months, +15.5% in 1 year
→ First month positive in 6 of 7, with a double-digit drop in 1974
→ ES futures tagged 7,490 overnight, then flipped to +1.1%
My take: 7 for 7 is strong, but the sample is small, and the first month could stumble like 1974. Worst case: if futures drop below 7,490, the election rally lasts a single day. I'm watching that level closely.
#Investing #SP500
1
122
ເປັນຄວາມຈິງບາງສ່ວນ
What nobody's watching: per Bloomberg data, the US has 7.5 million job openings, the same as 2019 levels, but the hiring rate is at 3.4%, a 2013 level.
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
What nobody's watching: per Bloomberg data, the US has 7.5 million job openings, the same as 2019 levels, but the hiring rate is at 3.4%, a 2013 level.
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
908
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+15.17
ລາຄາປິດ
69651.9
34
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+2.96
ລາຄາປິດ
69044.7
19
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+0.99
ລາຄາປິດ
69110.6
24
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+9.93
ລາຄາປິດ
69318.6
12
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
AXSUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+7.58
ລາຄາປິດ
13.451625
15
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
AXSUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+2.07
ລາຄາປິດ
13.381
8
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
AXSUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+3.65
ລາຄາປິດ
13.38056179
8
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
FTMUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+1.59
ລາຄາປິດ
0.80390631
15
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
FTMUSDT
PNL(USDT)
-8.88
ລາຄາປິດ
0.8059
15
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+13.07
ລາຄາປິດ
68324
11
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
BTCUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+5.10
ລາຄາປິດ
68566.1
16
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
AVAXUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+5.22
ລາຄາປິດ
43.034
10
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MurtiTheTrader
ປິດ Position
LINKUSDT
PNL(USDT)
+4.99
ລາຄາປິດ
20.14
7
ເຂົ້າສູ່ລະບົບເພື່ອສຳຫຼວດເນື້ອຫາເພີ່ມເຕີມ
ເຂົ້າຮ່ວມກຸ່ມຜູ້ໃຊ້ຄຣິບໂຕທົ່ວໂລກໃນ Binance Square.
⚡️ ໄດ້ຮັບຂໍ້ມູນຫຼ້າສຸດ ແລະ ທີ່ມີປະໂຫຍດກ່ຽວກັບຄຣິບໂຕ.
💬 ໄດ້ຮັບຄວາມໄວ້ວາງໃຈຈາກຕະຫຼາດແລກປ່ຽນຄຣິບໂຕທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດໃນໂລກ.
👍 ຄົ້ນຫາຂໍ້ມູນເຊີງເລິກທີ່ແທ້ຈາກນັກສ້າງທີ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຢືນຢັນ.
ອີເມວ / ເບີໂທລະສັບ
ຫົວຂໍ້ທີ່ກໍາລັງນິຍົມ
BTCRebounds80K
77,940 ຄັ້ງທີ່ເບິ່ງ
777 ກຳລັງສົນທະນາ
BITCOIN UPDATE I’M STILL BEARISH, AND HERE’S WHY! 🚨⚠️
As you all witnessed, BTC bounced back from the $75,700 area and touched $81K. First, the market trapped long traders, and then it trapped short traders.
I’m still bearish. First of all, as everyone knows, Democrats won today’s US midterm elections, and in my view, this outcome is bearish for the market.
The market can remain volatile in the short term and trap as many traders as it wants, but that doesn’t change the overall market outlook.
There are several important upcoming events, including US Non Farm Payrolls (November 6), US CPI Inflation (November 10), US PPI (November 13), US Retail Sales (November 17), FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 18), US PCE Inflation (November 25), Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, the US Dollar Index (DXY), Treasury Yields, Nasdaq performance, Bitcoin ETF flows, and ongoing( Iran ) Israel geopolitical developments. All of these could have a significant impact on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.
But don’t get too carried away by Bitcoin’s recent movement. Technically speaking, there hasn’t been any major bullish move yet. Yesterday, BTC was trading between $80K and $82K, and even today, it’s still around the same range.
If you want to turn bullish, that’s entirely your choice.
In my previous post, I clearly explained that BTC had technical support in the $75K / $76K zone, and the price bounced from that support and made its way back towards $80K. But this wasn’t something I had failed to mention before. In fact, I repeatedly mentioned in my posts that BTC could move towards $80K, $81K, or even $82K.
Despite that, I’m still bearish.
And I don’t have just one reason to support my bearish outlook. I have several reasons, which I’ve already explained in my previous posts.
For now, I’ll continue to wait for BTC to drop below $74K, which I believe could happen very soon. In my view, such a correction is also necessary for the market.
Anyone looking for crypto guidance just let me know.
#BTCRebounds80K
Strategic Adviser
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Binance98PercentReplenished
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USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?
361,806 ຄັ້ງທີ່ເບິ່ງ
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