莫 大

UGoogle Cloud umane wakhuluma okungakhulunywa obala enkomfuthweni yezobuchwepheshe kaGoldman: ama-server e-AI azizuzela wona phakathi neminyaka engaphansi kwemibili ngokwesilinganiso. Ngaphansi konyaka uma usebenzisa i-silicon yakwaGoogle. UThomas Kurian unikeze inombolo. Ihora ngaphambi kwalokho, uHock Tan kwa-$AVGO uthe imboni ichitha cishe u~$200B/ngonyaka ikhiqiza ama-inference tokens uma kuqhathaniswa nama-$150B emali engenayo yemodeli. Incwadi yemboni iphansi ngamanzi. I-Google ithi eyayo i-kit iyabuya ngaphakathi kwezinyanga eziyishumi nambili. Kokubili kungaba yiqiniso. Isimangalo sikaKurian sisekelwa ukuhlanganiswa kwe-vertical. Ukusebenza-kubiza okungu-2.7x okungcono ekuqeqesheni. Okungu-80% okungcono ekusetshenzisweni (inference). Okungu-30% okungcono kuma-CPU. I-chip nemodeli kuklanywe ndawonye. Ukudalulwa kwesibili inkinga ye-$NVDA. IGoogle manje iyathengisa ama-TPU njenge-capex. Amakhasimende athenge amabhokisi, awasebenzise ezakhiweni zawo. Kukhona futhi umugqa we-neocloud noBlackstone. Isizathu sikaKurian sasicacile: uma ikhasimende liphethe ihadiwe, i-Google ayichithi i-capex, ayiqhube amandla noma phansi. Imali ngaphandle kokwakhiwa. Lena ibhizinisi le-merchant silicon. U-Kurian uthe incwadi ye-accelerator ne-CPU yakwaGoogle ingaphezu kuka-2x yenkampani enkulu elandelayo (i-hyperscaler) engenaso. Iseshini efanayo: imikhiqizo engu-17 engaphezu kuka-$1B. Izinhlobo ze-$100M+ zivale ngaphezu kuka-2x YoY naku-QoQ. Amakhasimende agcina (commit) ngokuvamile achitha u-50%+ ngaphezulu kwalokho abakumise. 90% yeFortune 100 kuGemini Enterprise. Ukuhweba kwe-AI kube yilona elidayisa amandla okusebenza (compute). I-Google iyaphikisa ukuthi ingadayisa i-chip, iqashe i-chip, futhi idayise imodeli esebenza kuyo. Bheka ama-margins e-Cloud kulekota ezayo. Kulapho inhlanganisela yokuthenga imali (capital-purchase mix) iyeka ukuba umugqa wenkomfa. $GOOGL $NVDA $AVGO