GEMINI

STH SOPR is back above 1.0, which means short term holders are selling in profit again. But MVRV is still about 17% below its normal level, so the market is still carrying a lot of unrealized losses. That means any price bounce can face selling pressure from holders who just want to exit at breakeven. Short term strength is there but the bigger structural pressure hasn’t gone away yet.

#Bitcoin’s recent pullback seems to be opening the door for serious long term buyers. CryptoQuant’s accumulator addresses are now purchasing at an average pace of around 372,000 BTC per month, compared to just 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024.

That jump is significant. These wallets are classified under strict rules, with no outflows and with exchange and miner addresses excluded, which helps keep the data reliable. While short term participants react to price swings, this group appears focused on steadily increasing exposure for the long run.

#Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has fallen back to the 0.92-0.94 range, which historically reflects strong bear market pressure. Since the metric is below 1, it shows that most investors are selling at a loss, usually driven by fear and capitulation. In previous cycles, this zone has appeared during periods of heavy volatility and deep corrections, and in some cases, near major market bottoms.

With #Bitcoin trading at $68.8K, it is currently below the Short Term Holder cost basis at $90.9K, the Active Investors mean at $85.8K, and the True Market Mean at $79.0K, which shows that most recent and active participants are sitting at a loss. However, price is still above the Realized Price at $54.9K, meaning the broader market structure remains intact and long term holders are still in profit.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

For the first time ever, #Bitcoin has posted back to back losses in January and February. It’s an unusual start to the year and shows that the market is under pressure early on.

Large #Bitcoin holders are actively buying during this dip, with exchange balances dropping around 3.2 percent over the past 30 days as coins move into cold storage. That reduces the available supply on exchanges, which can tighten liquidity.

Retail investors are still cautious, but smart money is quietly accumulating. If demand picks up while supply remains limited, it can create strong upside pressure and set up the next expansion phase.

#Bitcoin is still around 50% below its all-time high, and history shows it could even drop 70-80% before a true bottom forms. But instead of focusing only on how low it can go, it’s smarter to start watching where strong support and real demand might step in.

On chain data shows long term holders aren’t heavily selling and signs of capitulation are slowly appearing, which often happens near cycle lows. No one can predict the exact bottom but this is usually the phase where smart money prepares quietly while fear dominates the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

The estimated average entry price of active #Bitcoin holders is around $73,000, excluding investors who have held their coins for more than seven years since they are no longer actively participating and some of that supply may even be lost.

With Bitcoin currently trading near $70,000, the price is below the cost basis of these active investors, a situation that has mostly occurred during the later stages of past bear markets. If Bitcoin can climb back above this level and hold it, that would be an early positive sign that market conditions may be improving.

Right now price is trading between $55K and $79.2K, which looks similar to the structure we saw in early 2022. The market is likely to keep moving sideways within this range as new buyers slowly accumulate supply. A real shift would need something big, either a strong move back above $79.2K to confirm renewed strength or a major shock that pushes price below $55K. Without a strong catalyst, consolidation inside this range is the most probable path in the mid term.

A sharp wave of volatility swept through the crypto market in the last 24 hours, leading to 104,633 trader liquidations and total losses of $319.28 million. The largest single liquidation took place on Binance, where a #SOL/USDT position worth $4.21 million was closed out.

The 7D SMA #Bitcoin basis is back in neutral after the futures premium dropped. This means leveraged long demand has weakened and traders are reducing risk. The market is no longer pricing in an aggressive risk on move. Derivatives are not pushing price higher right now. For bulls to take control again, stronger spot buying is needed. Without real spot demand, upside momentum will likely stay limited.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Dealers are short gamma between 58k and 74k, with the largest concentration around 63k. In this setup, their hedging activity tends to amplify moves rather than absorb them. If price rises they have to buy more and if it falls they have to sell more, which reinforces the direction. That makes the market more sensitive to breakouts, especially on the downside and increases the chance of sharp, fast reactions once key levels break.

The market is currently pulling back but the long term structure is still holding firm. The LTH Cost Basis continues to rise and is now around $38.2K, showing that long term holders are accumulating at higher levels. At the same time, the Realized Price is trending down near $55.0K.

If this pattern continues, both metrics are likely to compress into a key support corridor between $43K and $51K within the next quarter. That range could become a critical decision zone for the market’s next major move.

Selling pressure on Coinbase continues to hold. The Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed negative for its longest stretch since November 2024, showing that sellers are still dominating and demand remains weak on the platform.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

As #Bitcoin continues its correction, volatility is rising due to ongoing macro uncertainty, incomplete economic data after the shutdown and geopolitical tensions putting pressure on the market. The situation is made worse by high leverage in the derivatives market, where liquidations trigger chain reactions that intensify price movements.

Since late summer, volatility has been trending higher, with a major spike during the large liquidation event on October 10, and further elevated swings seen in November, late January, and early February. Overall, the market remains fragile, with sharp movements likely to continue.

With unrealized profits shrinking across the board, #Bitcoin’s NUPL is now sitting near 0.18, firmly in the Hope/Fear zone. That tells us most holders are not deeply in profit, which makes the market more sensitive to every move. In this kind of phase, upside attempts often struggle. Even small rallies can attract sellers who prefer to lock in limited gains rather than wait for a bigger breakout.

At the same time, if price starts slipping, hesitation can quickly turn into broader selling as confidence fades. It’s usually a reactive environment where follow through is limited and sentiment shifts fast. Careful positioning and patience tend to matter more than aggressive entries when conviction is this thin.