For-Exx Kripto

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 10, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
UBS warns of short-term risks for gold but maintains its $5,000 target
Trump: “Iran is asking for compensation for the damage; I am also demanding compensation from Iran”
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The security of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the aggressors ending their military actions against Iran and compensating for previous violations — IRIB
Reuters reported that Iran is close to a final agreement with Oman on passage through the Strait of Hormuz; global equities edged higher on the news, while oil prices remained stable
White House Senior Adviser Hassett: Kevin Warsh is as independent as possible; if he were at the Fed, he would hold or lower interest rates
Trump Media is charging trading firms up to $1.2 million annually for faster access to President Trump’s Truth Social posts
The Senate adjourned for the August recess without voting on the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act; Majority Leader Thune said the bill will be the first item taken up when the Senate returns in September — the regulatory catalyst expected by crypto markets has been pushed back to September
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC is trading in the $64,850-$65,300 range this morning and has held $65,000 for four days; the rally following Friday’s much weaker-than-expected employment data continues to hold. Small investors (0.1-1 BTC) sold 9,700 coins on August 9 — indicating they are not fully convinced by the long-term bullish scenario.
Total liquidations today reached $93 million (down 37% from yesterday); BTC and ETH accounted for the largest shares at $17M and $14M, respectively. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $844 million in net inflows during the August 3-7 week — one of the strongest weekly flows since April; institutional demand has not dried up despite the delay of the CLARITY Act. A breakout above $66,000-$67,000 could bring $68,000-$69,000 into focus, while a close below $64,000 could bring the $63,000-$62,500 range into play.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 1,690 BTC ($108.6 million at an average price of $64,262) — continuing the shift in the company’s “never sell” policy. $BTC
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is defending $1,900 this morning, trading in the $1,900-$1,915 range; Ethereum ETFs recorded $244 million in net inflows last week — the strongest weekly flow since April 2026. Solana reached a two-week high, while the Arcade Games and XRP Ledger ecosystems were the day’s top-performing segments. Bitmine added 7,391 ETH within one week, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 5.81 million ETH — institutional accumulation continues. On the losing side, Algorand fell 5.5% and Midnight declined 4.4%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 30 (Fear).
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
BTCPay Server confirmed that funds were stolen due to a critical security vulnerability that is actively being exploited
Kraken’s decision to delist 21 tokens is increasing liquidity concerns for holders of those tokens
Bitcoin’s BIP-110 fork (a proposal to limit Ordinals/inscription data) failed to gain sufficient miner support from the community — the fork has mined only two blocks so far and represents just ~0.15% of total hashrate; the main chain continues to operate normally
Grayscale is converting staking rewards in its Ethereum staking product into monthly cash distributions; annual net staking yield after fees is approximately 2.61%
The CLARITY Act entered the Senate recess without a vote; Polymarket is pricing the probability of the bill passing in 2026 at approximately 30-33%, while Kalshi puts it as high as 67% — a significant divergence between the markets continues
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
io.net (IO)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $1.3M-$1.9M (~2.7-4.1% of circulating supply, ~2% of total supply) — 14-16M tokens
Recipient profile: Private Investors 47%, Community 35.5%, Insiders 17%
Selling pressure: 🟡
Note: Monthly routine vesting; the investor-heavy distribution may create moderate selling pressure.
Solayer (LAYER)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $1.6M-$1.9M (~12.9% of circulating float) — 27-31M tokens
Recipient profile: Community & Ecosystem + Foundation
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: High relative to the circulating float — the largest relative impact among today’s unlocks.
Holoworld AI (HOLO)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $2.5M (4.7% of market cap)
Selling pressure: 🟡
Moca Network (MOCA)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $1.3M (4% of market cap)
Selling pressure: 🟡
Allora (ALLO)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $1.2M (1.8% of market cap)
Selling pressure: 🟢
Nereus Token (NRS)
August 11, 2026
Amount: $1.1M (1.5% of circulating supply, ~31% of market cap) — ~15M tokens
Recipient profile: Foundation + Insiders + Community
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: The most dilutive individual item relative to market cap — a significant ratio for a small-cap token.
According to DefiLlama, the total for the day is approximately $46 million; there is no single large cliff unlock, with multiple medium-to-small unlocks occurring together.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
The Senate recessing without voting on the CLARITY Act removed the expected August catalyst — although Thune said he would put the bill first on the agenda when the Senate returns in September, disagreements over ethical provisions and stablecoin yields still threaten the 60-vote threshold. Despite this, the market reaction remained limited; strong ETF inflows show that institutional demand remains alive despite regulatory uncertainty. Two critical inflation reports this week, including CPI on August 12, will retest the declining September rate-hike expectations following Friday’s weak employment data. The six token unlocks on August 11 could increase daily volatility, particularly among small- and mid-cap altcoins. Whether the Iran-Oman agreement on passage through the Strait of Hormuz reported by Reuters will be formalized will remain decisive for oil prices and risk appetite.

August 10–14, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT)
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
Friday’s -23K NFP did not just disrupt a single data point; it upended the entire September FOMC narrative. Including the 103K total downward revisions for May and June, the labor market is genuinely deteriorating; wage growth fell to 3.2%, its lowest level since 2021. The market cut the probability of a September hike from 57% to the single digits — the S&P 500 rose 3.6% for the week, while the dollar fell to 99.56. However, before Friday, Warsh told the FT: “If the inflation data comes in hot, I’m ready to hike in September.” Oil rose above $100 in July, the Bab el-Mandeb closed, and gasoline prices fully recovered their sharp June decline. Wednesday’s July CPI will resolve this contradiction: The labor market is collapsing, but energy prices may have started rising again. This week is the key point at which stagflation will either be confirmed or disproved by the data.
📅 Economic Calendar (UTC + 3)
Wednesday – August 12
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — CPI, July 2026
In June, headline CPI fell to 3.5% as the energy component declined 5.7%. That picture is expected to reverse in July: Gasoline prices fully recovered their June decline, while crude oil ended the month with a significant monthly gain. Whether core CPI remains sticky at 2.6% is also critical for Warsh’s “two steps required” inflation assessment. Hot headline + sticky core = a scenario in which Warsh gives the green light for a September hike. Hot headline + cooling core = a mixed signal with high uncertainty. If both components cool, expect the market to begin pricing in a new round of currency weakness.
Thursday – August 13 15:30 TRT — PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims, July 2026
Both will be released at the same time. June PPI declined 0.3% month-on-month. In July, the surge in energy input costs may have pushed producer prices higher; a hot PPI reading one day after CPI would reinforce the view that “pipeline inflation continues to build.” Jobless claims: The first indicator measuring whether the NFP collapse is being confirmed on a weekly basis. A sudden increase would signal that “a genuine unemployment wave has begun.”
⚡ Crypto & Market Risks
CPI (Wednesday 15:30): This is the single breaking point of the week. If CPI comes in hot: Warsh’s “I’m ready” message becomes active, September hike expectations are rapidly repriced, last week’s NFP rally is partially reversed, the dollar strengthens, and crypto comes under leverage pressure. If CPI comes in cool: The September hike is completely taken off the table, the risk-on environment deepens, and upside momentum for BTC/ETH remains intact. The riskiest scenario: An energy-driven headline surge + sticky core inflation = stagflation becoming officially confirmed by the data. The Fed does not know what to do, and the market does not know what to price in — high volatility and sharp two-way moves.
PPI (Thursday 15:30): A hot reading that supports CPI would strengthen Warsh’s position, while a surprise in the opposite direction could partially soften Wednesday’s hot CPI interpretation.
Jackson Hole (August 27–29): Warsh’s next major speech is two weeks away. The picture created by this week’s CPI and PPI data will directly shape the message Warsh delivers at Jackson Hole. The market will view this week as the final major data window ahead of Jackson Hole.
Iran-Oman Corridor: The Hormuz corridor agreement announced on August 6 provided short-term relief in energy markets. If the agreement’s practical impact pushes oil prices lower during the week, the energy component of July CPI could paint a better picture for August — but it will not change the July data, only ease August expectations.

📰 MARKET AGENDA REPORT — AUGUST 8, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🗺️ GLOBAL & GEOPOLITICAL
• Progress is reportedly being made in talks between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations along the Iran-Oman channel are approaching an agreement on the passage of commercial vessels, while transit fees and the inspection mechanism remain key points of disagreement.
• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have not completely ended. The United Arab Emirates said a vessel belonging to ADNOC was targeted by an Iranian missile. The security risk to maritime shipping is carrying over into the new week.
• Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye signed a defense agreement aimed at strengthening regional security. The agreement stands out as a new development in the security architecture of the Gulf and surrounding region at a time when Iran-related missile and regional security risks are increasing.
• Fighting between the Houthis and government forces in Yemen is intensifying again. The United Nations warned that the fragile ceasefire environment could once again turn into a large-scale conflict.
• Following weak U.S. employment data, debate over Fed policy has intensified again, while coordinated yen intervention between Washington and Tokyo continues to draw attention in global currency markets.
• The Iranian Army spokesman said the system established in the Strait of Hormuz is “irreversible.” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council put forward six conditions for the resumption of commercial vessel traffic, including the withdrawal of U.S. military presence, removal of sanctions, payment of compensation and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said reopening the Strait of Hormuz is linked to compensation being paid for U.S. violations against Iran, while Iran’s president said that despite describing the U.S. as unreliable, they aim to make progress toward resolving existing issues.
• Iran is reportedly nearing an agreement with Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, while conflicting statements are emerging over transit fees. Despite statements that Iran will not impose fees, there is still no final agreement on fully and unconditionally reopening the strait.
• Risks to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued on Saturday. ADNOC said one of its vessels came under a missile attack while passing through the strait. Around the same time, UKMTO reported an incident involving a vessel and an unidentified object 18 nautical miles east of Khasab, Oman.
• Türkiye restricted vessel movements in the Black Sea following an increase in attacks. The rising security risk for commercial maritime transport in the region is also making energy and commodity shipments through the Black Sea a closely watched issue.
• Russia said a vessel allegedly carrying weapons for Ukrainian forces was attacked by a drone east of Odesa. Attacks targeting ports and maritime transport infrastructure in the Black Sea continue.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 MARKET NEWS
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July. The unexpected employment decline indicated a significant slowdown in the labor market while weakening expectations for another Fed rate hike.
• The coordinated U.S.-Japan currency intervention aimed at supporting the yen has created an important precedent in markets. The U.S. Treasury selling euros instead of dollars to buy yen is being closely watched for its implications for monetary policy and the dollar.
• U.S. equities ended the week strongly as weak employment data reduced rate-hike expectations. In the new week, focus will shift from the labor market to inflation indicators.
• Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain decisive for oil markets. A concrete agreement to reopen the strait could reduce the risk premium on energy supplies, while a failure of the talks could bring supply concerns back to the forefront.
• Europe’s STOXX 600 index ended the week at an all-time high, supported by corporate earnings and the impact of weak U.S. employment data on interest-rate expectations.
• China’s gold reserves recorded their largest monthly increase since October 2023 as the central bank accelerated purchases. The People’s Bank of China’s continued gold accumulation is drawing attention in terms of central-bank reserve diversification and demand for non-dollar assets.
• Berkshire Hathaway reported $12.98 billion in operating profit for the second quarter. Operating profit rose from $11.16 billion in the same period last year, while cash and cash equivalents declined from $397.4 billion to $365.5 billion.
• Berkshire Hathaway became a net buyer of equities again in the second quarter after a prolonged period as a net seller. The company made approximately $20 billion in net stock purchases and also repurchased approximately $4.5 billion of its own shares.
• Berkshire Hathaway reportedly invested approximately $10 billion in Alphabet, while its acquisition of Taylor Morrison Home reached $6.8 billion. The company’s renewed use of cash reserves for stock and corporate acquisitions signals a significant shift in Berkshire’s investment strategy.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz will become “irrelevant” in the future. The comments raised expectations that alternative energy routes and infrastructure investments could reduce the strait’s strategic importance in global energy trade over the long term.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
₿ CRYPTO NEWS
• Uncertainty continues around the regulatory framework closely followed by the U.S. crypto market. In particular, the slowdown in progress on market-structure legislation is increasing concerns that the regulatory clarity expected by the institutional crypto sector could be delayed.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to play an important role in institutional demand for crypto, while investors’ focus has shifted toward U.S. regulatory developments alongside ETF flows. Nasdaq’s regulatory process to amend listing standards for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF products is also ongoing.
• BitMart has decided to shut down its crypto exchange operations after nine years of activity. Users have been given time to close their trading positions, while withdrawals will remain available for a longer period.
• The balance between institutional demand and regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market will be one of the key themes of the new week. In particular, the fate of the CLARITY Act and developments surrounding Ethereum staking ETFs will be closely watched by institutional markets.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔭 LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK
• Monday, August 10: There are no major first-tier U.S. data releases. The market’s main focus will be the Hormuz talks, oil supply and the impact of Friday’s weak employment data on Fed expectations.
• Tuesday, August 11: Early indicators on the U.S. small-business outlook and producer prices will be monitored. At the same time, the course of the diplomatic process surrounding the Strait of Hormuz in the new week will remain important.
• Wednesday, August 12: U.S. CPI will be released at 15:30 TRT. Following the weak employment data, the inflation trajectory will be decisive for interest-rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
• Thursday, August 13: U.S. PPI will be released at 15:30 TRT. Producer-price developments will provide additional signals on the inflation outlook, particularly through services and goods costs.
• Friday, August 14: U.S. retail sales will be released at 15:30 TRT. The strength of consumer spending will be important in assessing the extent to which the labor-market slowdown is feeding through into economic activity.
• Throughout the week, U.S.-Iran talks, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil supplies and the U.S. crypto regulatory process will also remain key market themes regardless of the economic data calendar.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 7, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at -23,000, sharply missing the market expectation of +80,000; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Significant downward revisions to previous periods indicated that the labor market slowdown is deeper than previously thought.
Richmond Fed President Barkin: The unemployment rate is the best indicator of labor market health; he does not believe there is wage inflation at present — arguing that “if the wind is blowing in your face, you need to tighten,” while maintaining that the Fed will bring inflation down to 2%.
According to Fed funds futures ahead of the data, the probability of a September rate hike fell from 57% to 44%.
Global equity funds recorded net inflows for the 11th consecutive week, supported by strong earnings reports.
Ship-tracking firm Kpler: Only 6 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz this week.
South Korea’s KOSPI index posted its seventh consecutive weekly decline, marking its longest losing streak since December 2022.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC jumped above $65,000 following the weak NFP report, as the unexpected employment loss was described as a “major surprise”; investors largely abandoned expectations for a September rate hike. Trading between $64,087 and $65,042 intraday, BTC is being supported by approximately $1.2 billion in accumulation by whale wallets and ~$754 million in daily inflows into U.S. spot ETFs.
The $65,000-$66,000 zone remains a key resistance area; a sustained close above it could bring $67,000 into focus, while below it, the risk of a pullback toward the $64,000-$63,000 range remains.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH reacted even more strongly than BTC to the weak employment data, rising to $1,929 (~1.4% daily gain). Falling U.S. Treasury yields and easing rate expectations are broadly supporting risk appetite; signs of recovery are also emerging across altcoins.
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Analysts note that consecutive weak ADP and NFP readings have increased the likelihood of the #Fed moving toward a rate cut in September, which could be a positive medium-term signal for the crypto market.
Whale wallets have accumulated approximately $1.2 billion worth of BTC in recent days.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $754 million in inflows in a single day — one of the strongest daily flows of the week.
CME Group’s Cardano (ADA) futures will complete the six-month regulated trading period required under the SEC’s generic listing standards on August 9; this could pave the way for a spot ADA ETF without requiring a separate rule-change filing.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
WPAY (Wirex Pay) → ~$127M - $129M
169.9M tokens (~1.7% of supply / ~4.4% of MCAP)
Foundation 35.1%, Insiders 32.7%, Community 32.2%
(Largest unlock of the day)
STABLE → ~$29M - $30M
~888.9M tokens (~3.5% of circulating supply)
Cliff unlock (mostly Community)
Time: approximately 13:00 Beijing time
No new unlock exceeding the threshold was identified for August 8-9; the next notable unlock cluster (Solayer, io.net, BounceBit, PEAQ) falls on August 11-12.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Following the weak NFP report, market focus has shifted to the September FOMC meeting; after the Fed’s historic 9-3 split, markets will closely watch whether the dovish camp gains greater influence this time. The August 9 CME Cardano futures milestone could serve as a potential catalyst in the spot ADA ETF process. Low tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the seven-week losing streak in the #KOSPI indicate that regional risk appetite remains fragile.

The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in at -23,000, sharply missing expectations for a +80,000 increase. The headline was weak, while major downward revisions showed that the labor market slowdown is deeper than previously thought.
Headline & Revisions
Employment fell by 23K in July versus +80K expected. The previous +57K reading was revised to +20K, while net revisions for the last two months totaled -103K. Including revisions, the three-month average fell to just 20K, suggesting weakness is becoming a broader trend.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% versus 4.2% expected. However, labor force participation declined from 61.5% to 61.4%, meaning part of the improvement came from people leaving the labor force. U6 unemployment remained unchanged at 7.9%.
Wages
Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% MoM versus 0.3% expected, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2% versus 3.5% expected. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.3. Weakening wage growth gives the dovish side of the Fed more support.
Sector Breakdown
Private payrolls increased only 30K versus 78K expected. Government employment fell by 53K and was the main drag on the headline figure. Manufacturing surprised positively at +30K, while leisure and hospitality lost 40K jobs, including 26.1K in food services.
Market Reaction
USD/JPY fell rapidly from 158.33 before the release to 157.13 afterward. Fed funds futures also shifted, with the probability priced for September falling from 57% to 44%.
Underlying Picture
Youth unemployment fell sharply, with the number of unemployed young people dropping by 167K and the rate declining from 14.6% to 12.1%. Unemployment among those aged 20+ remained at 3.8%.
More concerning is labor-force contraction: 264K people left the labor force in July, bringing the decline since May to 984K.
Assessment
The report is not quite as bad as the headline suggests, since much of the job loss came from government employment and unemployment fell. However, the -103K revisions and three-month payroll average of just 20K point to a much weaker underlying labor-market trend.
Combined with softer wage growth, the report provides significantly more ammunition for the dovish side of the Fed.
$BTC

Fed Turns More Hawkish: September Rate Hike Odds Rise to 56.7% — What Does It Mean for Bitcoin and Markets?
In recent days, Fed officials have delivered increasingly hawkish messages. With today’s Financial Times report on Chair Kevin Warsh, the market narrative has completely reversed: after years of debating “when will the Fed cut?”, investors are now discussing a potential September rate hike.
The Hawkish Camp Is Growing
At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, but the vote was striking. The committee split 9–3, with Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike.
The hawkish message did not stop there. Kashkari argued this week that corporate profits, consumers and the labor market remain strong, meaning monetary policy may not be restrictive enough. Hammack warned that the longer elevated inflation persists, the more costly it becomes to bring it down. Governor Lisa Cook also said she could support a hike if inflation fails to cool.
The Warsh Surprise: FT Report
The key development today came directly from the top of the Fed. The Financial Times reported that Warsh would be prepared to support a September rate hike if upcoming inflation data exceeds expectations and markets increasingly price higher borrowing costs.
This is significant for a Fed chair who has deliberately reduced forward guidance since taking office. After the July meeting, Warsh had already stressed that inflation above the 2% target remains unacceptable.
Markets Are Now Pricing a Hike
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting has risen from 54.4% to 56.7%.
Prediction markets remain slightly more cautious, with Polymarket and Kalshi pricing the probability around 52–53%.
Treasury markets are sending the same message. The 2-year yield has climbed to 4.22%, the 10-year to around 4.64–4.67%, while the 30-year yield has reached 5.21%, its highest level in 19 years.
Everything Depends on the Data
The key releases before the September FOMC meeting are:
August 12 — July CPI
August 13 — July PPI
August 26 — July PCE
Early September — August Employment Report
September 11 — August CPI
The starting point remains uncomfortable for the Fed: headline PCE was 3.7% in June, core PCE 3.3%, while CPI was around 3.5% year-over-year.
Hot inflation combined with resilient employment would strengthen the case for a September hike. Clear disinflation would quickly weaken it.
One important warning sign is employment. July ADP showed only 44K private-sector jobs versus expectations around 75K. If the labor market weakens while inflation remains elevated, the Fed could face a stagflation dilemma.
Impact on Markets
Higher rates — or simply stronger expectations of a hike — generally create headwinds for risk assets.
Higher yields increase discount rates, putting pressure on high-valuation technology and growth stocks. Tighter liquidity makes leveraged positions more expensive, while a stronger dollar tends to pressure non-dollar and risk-sensitive assets.
Conversely, softer inflation could reverse this dynamic: rate-hike expectations would decline, Treasury yields and the dollar could weaken, while equities and other risk assets recover.
What About Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is currently trading largely like a long-duration risk asset. In theory, tighter monetary policy, higher real yields and a stronger dollar are negative for BTC.
However, Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience around $64,000 despite the hawkish July Fed meeting and rising rate-hike expectations.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are becoming increasingly important. Strong institutional inflows can partially offset macro pressure, while sustained outflows would reinforce a risk-off environment.
Bitcoin’s “hard money” narrative also remains relevant. Persistent inflation and concerns over fiscal sustainability can increase demand for BTC and gold as alternative stores of value.
Analysts remain divided. One camp sees a hawkish Fed as one of the most negative scenarios for crypto because tighter liquidity increases pressure on leveraged positions. The other argues that the long-term Bitcoin thesis does not depend on rate cuts and that ETF demand and on-chain accumulation could ultimately matter more.
Conclusion: The Data Will Decide
For the first time in years, the Fed is seriously debating higher rather than lower interest rates, and Warsh appears willing to keep a September hike on the table.
But nothing is decided.
The August 12 and September 11 CPI reports, along with the August 26 PCE data, will be critical.
Hot inflation combined with resilient employment would pressure equities, long-duration assets and potentially Bitcoin while supporting the dollar and short-term yields.
Cooling inflation would weaken the rate-hike case and revive risk appetite.
For Bitcoin specifically, ETF flows and whether the $60,000–62,000 support zone holds will remain critical.
In short: The Fed has turned more hawkish, but the data will have the final word.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — August 6, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren: "We need cryptocurrency legislation. I've been saying this for a long time."
Bloomberg reports that Trump has held periodic phone calls with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh since May; the White House insists that Warsh remains independent.
The Financial Times reports that Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation data comes in hot and markets increase expectations for higher borrowing costs.
SpaceX's first post-IPO share unlock began today, with 911.5 million shares worth approximately $101 billion becoming eligible for trading — the stock is down 46% from its peak valuation.
Fitch Ratings: Volatility in South Korea's stock market poses limited near-term credit risk.
The CLARITY Act has entered its final day before the Senate begins its August 7 recess; Polymarket has cut the probability of passage in 2026 to 28%, down from a peak of 82%.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC remains strong in the $64,500–64,800 range, up 0.5% on the week. Buying support around $62,500–63,000 has been tested and defended several times this week. RSI stands at 65, showing strength without entering overbought territory.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $626 million in net inflows over three days. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $170 million of the latest $211 million daily inflow.
$67,300 — and $2,000 for ETH — remain key resistance levels. The CLARITY Act is already largely priced in, shifting market attention toward these technical levels.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is slightly positive in the $1,900–1,910 range. BTC and ETH were the only two major assets remaining positive in the CoinDesk 20, while altcoins broadly continue to lose favor.
XRP and BNB remain weak, while Hyperliquid's HYPE has been the strongest performer among major tokens this week. AAVE is also attracting renewed attention as protocol fundamentals strengthen.
The 10% declines in SanDisk and Western Digital shares have raised questions about whether capital may be rotating from AI winners into crypto.
━━━
📋 CRYPTO MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicated that the agency could provide regulatory clarity through its own guidance even if the CLARITY Act stalls in Congress.
Coinbase has begun gradually rolling out U.S. stock trading to UK users, offering commission-free fractional shares with accounts fundable in pounds or USDC.
JPYC completed a $38 million Series B round led by Japanese logistics giant AZ-COM Maruwa, bringing total funding since 2021 to $106 million.
SoftBank will report earnings today. Its $34.6 billion investment in OpenAI through Vision Fund 2 will be closely watched as a gauge of private AI investment strength.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
L1X (Layer One X)
Amount: ~$147M
Tokens: 16.9M L1X
Supply: ~1.7%
Market Cap: ~7.4%
Allocation: Insiders 50%, Private Investors 32.8%, Foundation 9.8%, Community 7.4%
Selling Pressure: 🔴 HIGH
Today's largest token unlock.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Tomorrow, August 7, is the Senate's final working day before recess and effectively the last opportunity for the CLARITY Act. Since markets are pricing a low probability of passage, any surprise progress could become an upside catalyst.
Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the week's second major macro test following the weaker-than-expected ADP reading.
SpaceX's gradual share unlocks will continue through December 2026. How the market absorbs the first round could also provide a reference point for similarly structured crypto token unlocks.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — August 5, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Strategy (MSTR) made a significant shift from its long-standing "never sell" policy, selling a total of 5,226 BTC across three transactions and raising approximately $321 million in cash. Meanwhile, the company's publicly traded preferred stock STRC has climbed more than 30% from its June lows to $94.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen is preparing for a full-scale conflict with Saudi Arabia, while attacks on Saudi vessels continue to reinforce a "blockade for blockade" dynamic.
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that no agreement has been finalized with the United States regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, President Trump said on Wednesday that an agreement to reopen the strait could still be possible.
Fed official Neel Kashkari said: "It's time to start raising interest rates gradually."
SpaceX investors are preparing for increased volatility as $101 billion worth of shares become eligible for trading on Thursday.
U.S. July ADP Employment came in at +44K (Forecast: +70K, Previous: +98K), signaling a notable slowdown.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC continued its recovery within the $64,000–64,500 range. Price remains above the 20-day EMA ($63,943) but continues to struggle at the 50-day EMA ($64,587), a level it has failed to break for the past three weeks.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $170 million in net inflows today, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $111.43 million.
Trump's comments suggesting that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be possible helped support overall market sentiment.
On-chain activity shows signs of panic: amid the Coldcard security incident, Bitcoin network activity reached its highest level of 2026.
A break above $64,587 could open the door toward the $66,000–67,025 region, while a close below $63,898 could shift focus back to the $62,662–60,000 support zone.
$BTC
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded in the $1,865–1,880 range, posting modest gains while largely tracking Bitcoin ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report.
Cysic (CYS) surged 93%, becoming the day's standout performer.
The DeFi market capitalization increased to $61.4 billion (+1% daily), while DeFi dominance rose to 4.1%.
Canton (CC) declined 6.06%, ranking among the day's weakest performers.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved slightly to 27 (Fear) from yesterday's 25 (Extreme Fear) but remains below last week's reading of 29.
━━━
📋 CRYPTO MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
PROVE (Succinct) completed one of the largest token unlocks of 2026 today, releasing 104–119% of its circulating supply and effectively doubling its float.
Negotiations over the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act remain unresolved as August 7, the Senate's final working day before recess, approaches.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
August 6, 2026
Amount: $22.74 million (0.19% of circulating supply) — 433,000 HYPE
Recipients: Core Contributors (routine monthly cliff unlock)
Selling Pressure: 🟢 Low
Note: According to Tokenomist, the HYPE team has historically claimed significantly fewer tokens than projected. Combined with the relatively small unlock size, the expected market impact is limited.
No additional major token unlocks above the reporting threshold have been identified for August 7.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Friday's U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the week's most important macro event.
With July ADP employment coming in well below expectations (+44K vs. +70K), expectations for a weaker NFP reading have increased, potentially reshaping market expectations for the Fed's September policy path.
At the same time, two opposing geopolitical developments remain in focus: the possibility of a Hormuz Strait agreement suggested by President Trump and the escalating tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, both of which could significantly influence regional risk premiums in the coming days.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — August 4, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The four-day countdown for the CLARITY Act has begun. Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego are working on a revised ethics compromise, while the ethics provisions remain the biggest obstacle to reaching the required 60 votes.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged there are not enough votes to pass the bill before the August recess. August 7 is the Senate's final working day before recess, while August 10 is considered the practical deadline.
Polymarket now prices the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 27%, while Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate to around 30%.
Despite reporting a third consecutive quarterly loss, Coinbase captured a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argued that crypto companies should stop pivoting toward artificial intelligence.
Robinhood's tokenized stock product surged 445% in a single day, highlighting continued investor interest in tokenized assets.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC traded in a tight $63,500-$63,900 range, showing modest strength. Immediate support lies between $62,800 and $63,150, while a clear resistance level remains overhead with no confirmed directional breakout.
On-chain data shows short-term holder supply has fallen to new lows while illiquid supply continues to increase, indicating growing liquidity divergence. Institutional OTC selling pressure also remains elevated.
Investors continue monitoring both the progress of the CLARITY Act and developments in the Middle East.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH attempted a modest recovery in the $1,850-$1,875 range but continued to underperform Bitcoin.
Among the top gainers, Cosmos (ATOM) rose 7.5%, Algorand (ALGO) gained 4.4%, and Ethena (ENA) advanced 4%.
On the downside, Audiera (BEAT) dropped 13.75%, while Uniswap (UNI) fell 5.6% and Kaspa (KAS) declined 2.9%.
The stablecoin market capitalization increased 0.1% to $302 billion.
━━━
📋 CRYPTO MARKET NEWS
Three major issues remain unresolved in the CLARITY Act negotiations: who will oversee ethics rules, whether stablecoin reward provisions will remain in the bill, and the scope of developer protections.
The SEC and CFTC continue advancing their own regulatory agendas independently of Congress. The January 28 staff guidance established a taxonomy for tokenized securities.
Analysts expect crypto market sensitivity to CLARITY Act developments to increase as the election period approaches.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
PROVE (Succinct) August 5, 2026
Amount: Approximately $34.7M-$39M (104%-119% of circulating supply)
208.33M tokens
Recipients: Team/Core Contributors, Ecosystem, Investors, Public Sale, and Foundation allocations
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: One of the largest single supply expansions of 2026, effectively doubling the circulating float. The unlock exceeds 100% of circulating supply, creating an exceptionally dilutive event with significant downside risk.
Ethena (ENA) August 5, 2026
Amount: Approximately $15M-$19M (1.8%-2.4% of circulating supply)
171.88M tokens
Recipients: Core Contributors (scheduled monthly cliff unlock)
Selling Pressure: 🟡
Note: A routine monthly unlock with relatively limited dilution, though occurring on the same day as PROVE increases overall supply pressure.
Power Protocol (POWER) August 5, 2026
Amount: $1.62M (8.9% of market capitalization)
Recipients: Allocation details are not publicly available.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: The high unlock ratio relative to market capitalization creates liquidity shock risk.
Verona (VERONA) August 5, 2026
Amount: $1.37M (12.6% of market capitalization)
Recipients: Allocation details are not publicly available.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: An unlock equivalent to nearly one-eighth of market capitalization, a level that often results in sharp volatility for smaller-cap tokens.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK
PROVE's unlock, which will nearly double its circulating supply, coincides with ENA, POWER, and VERONA unlocks, making August 5 a potentially heavy supply-pressure day for the altcoin market.
The week concludes with Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, one of the month's most important macroeconomic releases, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path.
If no agreement is reached on the CLARITY Act by August 7, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is expected to decline further.