EllySon85

ETH/USDT 4H chart, the structure is still slightly bullish, but ETH is sitting at an important resistance zone.
📊 What the chart is showing
Current price: ~$2,505
Resistance
$2,528 — 4H Bollinger upper band / immediate resistance
$2,566 — recent swing high and major breakout level
Above $2,566 → $2,600–$2,650 becomes the next potential area
Support
$2,485 — Bollinger middle band + MA25
$2,477 — SAR support
$2,442 — lower Bollinger Band
$2,395 — Supertrend support
The broader market is also currently treating roughly $2,500–$2,550 as a key ETH battle zone.
🟢 Bullish scenario — my primary scenario
The interesting part is that ETH is holding above the MA25 ($2,485) while the MA7 is around $2,504.
If the 4H candles continue holding $2,485–$2,500, I would watch for:
$2,505 → $2,528 → $2,550 → $2,566
A convincing 4H close above $2,566 with increasing volume would be the strongest confirmation that the consolidation is resolving upward. Current external technical analysis also identifies ~$2,550–$2,567 as the key breakout region.
🔴 Bearish scenario
There is also a clear warning:
MACD is still slightly negative (-4.39), and ETH has recently struggled to push through the upper Bollinger Band.
If ETH gets rejected around $2,528–$2,566 and loses $2,485, I would expect a move toward:
$2,477 → $2,442
A sustained 4H break below $2,442 would weaken the bullish structure considerably and could expose the $2,395 area.
🔎 One thing I particularly like on your chart
The Stoch RSI is turning upward from relatively low levels:
Stoch RSI: 31.81
MA Stoch RSI: 28.40
That suggests short-term momentum may be trying to turn upward again. However, MACD hasn’t fully confirmed it yet.
So I would characterize the setup as:
🟢 Bullish structure + 🟡 short-term consolidation + 🔴 strong resistance overhead.
🎯 My probable path
Most likely:
$2,500–$2,530 consolidation → attempt toward $2,550–$2,566.
If $2,566 breaks convincingly, the next upside expansion could target approximately $2,600–$2,650.
If $2,485 fails, I’d expect the market to test $2,477/$2,442 before another serious attempt higher.
One important point: ETH’s daily momentum is already quite stretched/overbought, so a pullback or sideways consolidation wouldn’t necessarily mean the larger bullish trend has ended

ETH has actually been mildly inflationary since the Dencun upgrade, not deflationary.
Here’s the current picture:
• Base issuance: ~2,800 ETH/day is created via PoS staking rewards.
• Burn rate: Since Dencun moved L2 data to cheap “blob” space, mainnet burn dropped sharply. Mainnet gas fees have been near historic lows (~0.1 Gwei), meaning minimal burn per transaction
• Net effect: Net supply growth has been running roughly 0.23% to 0.85% annually in recent 2026 measurements i.e., mild inflation, not deflation. Ethereum’s supply has actually grown by roughly 950,000 ETH since the Merge
When it does flip deflationary: only in short bursts of unusually high mainnet activity — big DeFi surges, NFT mints, or fee spikes — where burn temporarily outpaces issuance for a day or a stretch of days. That’s not the steady-state condition anymore.
So the “ultrasound money” (permanently deflationary) narrative from 2021–2023 doesn’t hold at current activity levels — it’s more accurate to call ETH a low-inflation asset than a strictly deflationary one right now It could flip back if mainnet usage (not L2 usage) picks up meaningfully, since L2 activity barely touches mainnet burn anymore.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

📊 What the chart is showing
1. Short-term momentum: Bullish 🟢
ETH has broken above the MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99).
The latest candles came with a strong increase in volume, which gives the upward move more credibility.MACD is bullish and the histogram is expanding.Price is also above the Bollinger middle band at about $1,884.5.
This is a meaningful short-term recovery. Current market data also has ETH around the $1,900 area, consistent with my chart snapshot.
🚨 The key resistance
The most important zone right now is:
$1,908–$1,913
My chart shows:
Supertrend: $1,908.59Recent high: $1,912.60Price: $1,906.11
So ETH is essentially sitting directly underneath resistance.
🔥 Bullish scenario
If a 4H candle closes convincingly above $1,913, that would be the strongest confirmation that buyers have taken control.
Potential next areas:
$1,913 → $1,925 → $1,950 → $2,000
The $1,925 area is particularly interesting because it is close to the upper range shown on the chart. Recent market analysis similarly identifies roughly $1,922 as an important level that needs to be reclaimed for the short-term outlook to improve.
🔻 Bearish/rejection scenario
There is one warning sign:
Stoch RSI = 100
That’s extremely elevated, meaning the 4H move is becoming stretched. It doesn’t automatically mean ETH must fall, but it increases the probability of a pullback or sideways consolidation.
If ETH gets rejected around $1,908–$1,913, I’d watch:
$1,900 — first support$1,890–$1,884 — stronger support/MA cluster$1,868–$1,870 — major short-term support$1,857 — deeper support
A move back below $1,884 would weaken the bullish breakout considerably.
🎯 My read of the probable sequence
Based purely on this 4H structure:
Most likely immediate path:
$1,906 → test $1,910–$1,913 → either breakout or rejection
If $1,913 breaks and holds, the chart becomes increasingly bullish toward $1,925 and potentially $1,950.
If $1,913 rejects, I would expect consolidation/pullback toward $1,900 → $1,890–$1,884 before another attempt.
Overall: 🟢 cautiously bullish, but confirmation is needed.
The strongest signal would be a 4H close above $1,913 accompanied by sustained volume. Conversely, losing $1,884 would be the warning that this recent pump may have been only a short-term relief rally.
This is technical/educational analysis, not a recommendation to trade