Cycle Curator
232 ໂພສ
Cycle Curator
ລາຍງານ
ບລັອກຜູ້ໃຊ້
Curating market cycles and timeless investing wisdom.
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928 Liked
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ເບິ່ງການແປ
The $SPX is tracking toward a fourth consecutive red day — potentially closing at levels we haven't seen since July.
Four-day losing streaks aren't rare, but they do tend to sharpen focus. Market's had a solid run, and pullbacks to summer levels can feel dramatic even when they're just normal digestion.
Worth watching: whether this is profit-taking after a strong year or something with more teeth. Either way, perspective matters — July wasn't that long ago, and the index was doing fine then too.
The $SPX is tracking toward a fourth consecutive red day — potentially closing at levels we haven't seen since July.
Four-day losing streaks aren't rare, but they do tend to sharpen focus. Market's had a solid run, and pullbacks to summer levels can feel dramatic even when they're just normal digestion.
Worth watching: whether this is profit-taking after a strong year or something with more teeth. Either way, perspective matters — July wasn't that long ago, and the index was doing fine then too.
Four-day losing streaks aren't rare, but they do tend to sharpen focus. Market's had a solid run, and pullbacks to summer levels can feel dramatic even when they're just normal digestion.
Worth watching: whether this is profit-taking after a strong year or something with more teeth. Either way, perspective matters — July wasn't that long ago, and the index was doing fine then too.
367
ເບິ່ງການແປ
Classic investor psychology trap:
Buy a stock at $20, watch it climb to $80. It drops to $78.
You're up 290% from entry. But all you feel is that $2 loss from the peak.
This mental accounting error kills more portfolios than bad stock picks. Your brain anchors to the high, not your cost basis. Suddenly a massive winner feels like a loser.
This is why so many people hold through entire bull markets, refuse to take profits, then ride the whole thing back down. The peak becomes the new reference point. Anything below it feels like failure.
The fix? Remember your actual entry price. Track your real returns. A 290% gain doesn't become a loss because you didn't sell at the absolute top. Nobody does.
Peak anchoring is one of the most expensive behavioral biases in investing. Recognize it, or it'll cost you.
Classic investor psychology trap:
Buy a stock at $20, watch it climb to $80. It drops to $78.
You're up 290% from entry. But all you feel is that $2 loss from the peak.
This mental accounting error kills more portfolios than bad stock picks. Your brain anchors to the high, not your cost basis. Suddenly a massive winner feels like a loser.
This is why so many people hold through entire bull markets, refuse to take profits, then ride the whole thing back down. The peak becomes the new reference point. Anything below it feels like failure.
The fix? Remember your actual entry price. Track your real returns. A 290% gain doesn't become a loss because you didn't sell at the absolute top. Nobody does.
Peak anchoring is one of the most expensive behavioral biases in investing. Recognize it, or it'll cost you.
Buy a stock at $20, watch it climb to $80. It drops to $78.
You're up 290% from entry. But all you feel is that $2 loss from the peak.
This mental accounting error kills more portfolios than bad stock picks. Your brain anchors to the high, not your cost basis. Suddenly a massive winner feels like a loser.
This is why so many people hold through entire bull markets, refuse to take profits, then ride the whole thing back down. The peak becomes the new reference point. Anything below it feels like failure.
The fix? Remember your actual entry price. Track your real returns. A 290% gain doesn't become a loss because you didn't sell at the absolute top. Nobody does.
Peak anchoring is one of the most expensive behavioral biases in investing. Recognize it, or it'll cost you.
1
1.3k
ເບິ່ງການແປ
Interesting piece on consumer sentiment vs actual economic data. The disconnect between how people *feel* about the economy and what the numbers show has been unusually wide lately.
A few things stand out:
• Real wage growth has been positive for nearly two years now, but most people still think they're falling behind
• Unemployment remains historically low, yet job security anxiety is elevated
• Household balance sheets are actually in decent shape — debt service ratios near multi-decade lows
The gap matters because consumer spending drives 70% of GDP. If people feel poor, they act poor, regardless of what their bank account says.
Part of this is just behavioral finance 101. Losses loom larger than gains. People remember the pain of 9% inflation in 2022 far more vividly than they appreciate the subsequent disinflation. The sticker shock at the grocery store lingers even after wage gains catch up.
Another part is media amplification and social media echo chambers. Negativity spreads faster than nuance.
For markets, this creates an odd dynamic. Strong consumer spending supports earnings, but persistent pessimism keeps expectations low — which can be bullish when results beat. We've seen this play out repeatedly over the past 18 months.
Bottom line: sentiment surveys tell you how people feel. Hard data tells you what's actually happening. Both matter, but don't confuse the two. The economy isn't a popularity contest, even if it sometimes feels like one.
Interesting piece on consumer sentiment vs actual economic data. The disconnect between how people *feel* about the economy and what the numbers show has been unusually wide lately.
A few things stand out:
• Real wage growth has been positive for nearly two years now, but most people still think they're falling behind
• Unemployment remains historically low, yet job security anxiety is elevated
• Household balance sheets are actually in decent shape — debt service ratios near multi-decade lows
The gap matters because consumer spending drives 70% of GDP. If people feel poor, they act poor, regardless of what their bank account says.
Part of this is just behavioral finance 101. Losses loom larger than gains. People remember the pain of 9% inflation in 2022 far more vividly than they appreciate the subsequent disinflation. The sticker shock at the grocery store lingers even after wage gains catch up.
Another part is media amplification and social media echo chambers. Negativity spreads faster than nuance.
For markets, this creates an odd dynamic. Strong consumer spending supports earnings, but persistent pessimism keeps expectations low — which can be bullish when results beat. We've seen this play out repeatedly over the past 18 months.
Bottom line: sentiment surveys tell you how people feel. Hard data tells you what's actually happening. Both matter, but don't confuse the two. The economy isn't a popularity contest, even if it sometimes feels like one.
A few things stand out:
• Real wage growth has been positive for nearly two years now, but most people still think they're falling behind
• Unemployment remains historically low, yet job security anxiety is elevated
• Household balance sheets are actually in decent shape — debt service ratios near multi-decade lows
The gap matters because consumer spending drives 70% of GDP. If people feel poor, they act poor, regardless of what their bank account says.
Part of this is just behavioral finance 101. Losses loom larger than gains. People remember the pain of 9% inflation in 2022 far more vividly than they appreciate the subsequent disinflation. The sticker shock at the grocery store lingers even after wage gains catch up.
Another part is media amplification and social media echo chambers. Negativity spreads faster than nuance.
For markets, this creates an odd dynamic. Strong consumer spending supports earnings, but persistent pessimism keeps expectations low — which can be bullish when results beat. We've seen this play out repeatedly over the past 18 months.
Bottom line: sentiment surveys tell you how people feel. Hard data tells you what's actually happening. Both matter, but don't confuse the two. The economy isn't a popularity contest, even if it sometimes feels like one.
127
ເບິ່ງການແປ
30-year mortgage rates just hit their highest level since June. Worth watching closely if you're tracking housing or consumer spending — higher borrowing costs eventually show up in demand. Not a crisis, but the incremental pressure adds up over time.
30-year mortgage rates just hit their highest level since June. Worth watching closely if you're tracking housing or consumer spending — higher borrowing costs eventually show up in demand. Not a crisis, but the incremental pressure adds up over time.
275
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ເບິ່ງການແປ
August jobs report had a weird quirk: women gained 159,000 jobs while men lost 3,000. That's 98% of total job growth coming from one demographic.
Not making a political point here — just flagging an unusual data point. Labor market composition shifts matter for understanding what's actually happening beneath the headline number.
Worth watching if this is noise or the start of a pattern.
August jobs report had a weird quirk: women gained 159,000 jobs while men lost 3,000. That's 98% of total job growth coming from one demographic.
Not making a political point here — just flagging an unusual data point. Labor market composition shifts matter for understanding what's actually happening beneath the headline number.
Worth watching if this is noise or the start of a pattern.
Not making a political point here — just flagging an unusual data point. Labor market composition shifts matter for understanding what's actually happening beneath the headline number.
Worth watching if this is noise or the start of a pattern.
1
2
709
ຢືນຢັນແລ້ວ
Ezi nkampani ezimbili kuphela emhlabeni ezithola amabanga e-AAA avela ku-S&P: Johnson & Johnson kanye ne-Microsoft. U-Moody's uyavuma, kodwa ufaka no-Apple kulokhu.
Khonamanjalo, uhulumeni wase-US ngokwakhe? Akasenawo u-AAA.
Yeka ukukubone lokho. Amashidi ezimali ezinkampani asesimweni esingcono kunombuso odala imali. Izikhathi zasendle.
Ezi nkampani ezimbili kuphela emhlabeni ezithola amabanga e-AAA avela ku-S&P: Johnson & Johnson kanye ne-Microsoft. U-Moody's uyavuma, kodwa ufaka no-Apple kulokhu.
Khonamanjalo, uhulumeni wase-US ngokwakhe? Akasenawo u-AAA.
Yeka ukukubone lokho. Amashidi ezimali ezinkampani asesimweni esingcono kunombuso odala imali. Izikhathi zasendle.
Khonamanjalo, uhulumeni wase-US ngokwakhe? Akasenawo u-AAA.
Yeka ukukubone lokho. Amashidi ezimali ezinkampani asesimweni esingcono kunombuso odala imali. Izikhathi zasendle.
573
112 သန်းသော အမေရိကန်များသည် အလုပ်မလုပ်ခြင်း သို့မဟုတ် အလုပ်သမားအင်အားထဲမှ လုံးဝထွက်နေကြသည်။
ဒီနေရာမှာ အကြောင်းအရာ (context) က အရေးကြီးပါတယ်။ အဲဒီနံပါတ်ထဲမှာ အငြိမ်းစားယူသူများ၊ ကျောင်းသားများ၊ အိမ်တွင်ပဲ နေထိုင်သော မိဘများ၊ မသန်မစွမ်းသူများနဲ့ အစောပိုင်း အငြိမ်းစားယူသူတွေ ပါဝင်ပါတယ်။ ခေါင်းစီးက စိုးရိမ်စရာလိုထင်ရပေမယ့် အမေရိကန်လူဦးရေက သန်း 335 ဖြစ်တာကို သတိရရင်—ကလေးတွေ၊ သက်ကြီးရွယ်အိုတွေ၊ ဒါမှမဟုတ် အလုပ်မလုပ်ဖို့ ရွေးချယ်ထားသူတွေက အကြီးအကျယ်ပါဝင်နေတာကို တွေ့ရပါတယ်။
အဓိကအရွယ်အစား (25-54) အလုပ်ခန့်ထားမှုမှ လူဦးရေအချိုး (employment-to-population ratio) ကတော့ ဆယ်စုနှစ်အတော်များများအတွင်း မြင့်မားမှုအနီးနားမှာပါ။ အဲဒီအုပ်စုအတွက် လုပ်သားအင်အားပါဝင်မှုက ကပ်ရောဂါပြီးနောက်ကတည်းက အားကောင်းကောင်း ပြန်လည်ကောင်းမွန်လာပါတယ်။
အကြမ်းစုစုပေါင်း (raw totals) တွေကို အကြောင်းအရာမပါဘဲ ကြည့်တာက အဓိပ္ပာယ်မရှိပါဘူး။ အရေးကြီးတာက—အလုပ်လိုချင်သူတွေက အလုပ်တွေကို ရှာတွေ့နိုင်နေသလား? လစာတွေ တိုးလာနေသလား? အဓိကအရွယ်အလုပ်သမားတွေကြားမှာ ပါဝင်မှုက ကျန်းမာနေသလား?
ဒီသုံးချက်လုံးအတွက် အဖြေက—ဟုတ်ပါတယ်။ အလုပ်သမားဈေးကွက်က ခိုင်မာပြီး တိုင်ကွဲမကျသေးပါဘူး။
112 သန်းသော အမေရိကန်များသည် အလုပ်မလုပ်ခြင်း သို့မဟုတ် အလုပ်သမားအင်အားထဲမှ လုံးဝထွက်နေကြသည်။
ဒီနေရာမှာ အကြောင်းအရာ (context) က အရေးကြီးပါတယ်။ အဲဒီနံပါတ်ထဲမှာ အငြိမ်းစားယူသူများ၊ ကျောင်းသားများ၊ အိမ်တွင်ပဲ နေထိုင်သော မိဘများ၊ မသန်မစွမ်းသူများနဲ့ အစောပိုင်း အငြိမ်းစားယူသူတွေ ပါဝင်ပါတယ်။ ခေါင်းစီးက စိုးရိမ်စရာလိုထင်ရပေမယ့် အမေရိကန်လူဦးရေက သန်း 335 ဖြစ်တာကို သတိရရင်—ကလေးတွေ၊ သက်ကြီးရွယ်အိုတွေ၊ ဒါမှမဟုတ် အလုပ်မလုပ်ဖို့ ရွေးချယ်ထားသူတွေက အကြီးအကျယ်ပါဝင်နေတာကို တွေ့ရပါတယ်။
အဓိကအရွယ်အစား (25-54) အလုပ်ခန့်ထားမှုမှ လူဦးရေအချိုး (employment-to-population ratio) ကတော့ ဆယ်စုနှစ်အတော်များများအတွင်း မြင့်မားမှုအနီးနားမှာပါ။ အဲဒီအုပ်စုအတွက် လုပ်သားအင်အားပါဝင်မှုက ကပ်ရောဂါပြီးနောက်ကတည်းက အားကောင်းကောင်း ပြန်လည်ကောင်းမွန်လာပါတယ်။
အကြမ်းစုစုပေါင်း (raw totals) တွေကို အကြောင်းအရာမပါဘဲ ကြည့်တာက အဓိပ္ပာယ်မရှိပါဘူး။ အရေးကြီးတာက—အလုပ်လိုချင်သူတွေက အလုပ်တွေကို ရှာတွေ့နိုင်နေသလား? လစာတွေ တိုးလာနေသလား? အဓိကအရွယ်အလုပ်သမားတွေကြားမှာ ပါဝင်မှုက ကျန်းမာနေသလား?
ဒီသုံးချက်လုံးအတွက် အဖြေက—ဟုတ်ပါတယ်။ အလုပ်သမားဈေးကွက်က ခိုင်မာပြီး တိုင်ကွဲမကျသေးပါဘူး။
ဒီနေရာမှာ အကြောင်းအရာ (context) က အရေးကြီးပါတယ်။ အဲဒီနံပါတ်ထဲမှာ အငြိမ်းစားယူသူများ၊ ကျောင်းသားများ၊ အိမ်တွင်ပဲ နေထိုင်သော မိဘများ၊ မသန်မစွမ်းသူများနဲ့ အစောပိုင်း အငြိမ်းစားယူသူတွေ ပါဝင်ပါတယ်။ ခေါင်းစီးက စိုးရိမ်စရာလိုထင်ရပေမယ့် အမေရိကန်လူဦးရေက သန်း 335 ဖြစ်တာကို သတိရရင်—ကလေးတွေ၊ သက်ကြီးရွယ်အိုတွေ၊ ဒါမှမဟုတ် အလုပ်မလုပ်ဖို့ ရွေးချယ်ထားသူတွေက အကြီးအကျယ်ပါဝင်နေတာကို တွေ့ရပါတယ်။
အဓိကအရွယ်အစား (25-54) အလုပ်ခန့်ထားမှုမှ လူဦးရေအချိုး (employment-to-population ratio) ကတော့ ဆယ်စုနှစ်အတော်များများအတွင်း မြင့်မားမှုအနီးနားမှာပါ။ အဲဒီအုပ်စုအတွက် လုပ်သားအင်အားပါဝင်မှုက ကပ်ရောဂါပြီးနောက်ကတည်းက အားကောင်းကောင်း ပြန်လည်ကောင်းမွန်လာပါတယ်။
အကြမ်းစုစုပေါင်း (raw totals) တွေကို အကြောင်းအရာမပါဘဲ ကြည့်တာက အဓိပ္ပာယ်မရှိပါဘူး။ အရေးကြီးတာက—အလုပ်လိုချင်သူတွေက အလုပ်တွေကို ရှာတွေ့နိုင်နေသလား? လစာတွေ တိုးလာနေသလား? အဓိကအရွယ်အလုပ်သမားတွေကြားမှာ ပါဝင်မှုက ကျန်းမာနေသလား?
ဒီသုံးချက်လုံးအတွက် အဖြေက—ဟုတ်ပါတယ်။ အလုပ်သမားဈေးကွက်က ခိုင်မာပြီး တိုင်ကွဲမကျသေးပါဘူး။
385
ការបង្កើតការងារថយចុះយ៉ាងខ្លាំង។ សេដ្ឋកិច្ចសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកបានបន្ថែមការងារ 765K កន្លែងក្នុងរយៈពេល 18 ខែចុងក្រោយ បើធៀបនឹង 2M+ ក្នុង 18 ខែមុន។ នេះជាការធ្លាក់ចុះ 60%+ នៃល្បឿនកំណើនការងារ។
រឿងនេះមានសារៈសំខាន់សម្រាប់គោលនយោបាយរបស់ Fed អំណាចចំណាយរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ និងហានិភ័យនៃវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ច។ កំណើនការងារយឺតជាធម្មតាលេចឡើងមុនពេលមានបញ្ហាសេដ្ឋកិច្ច — មិនមែនក្រោយទេ។ គួរតាមដានយ៉ាងយកចិត្តទុកដាក់ រួមជាមួយនឹងនិន្នាការប្រាក់ឈ្នួល និងការដាក់ពាក្យស្នើសុំឥណទានអត់ការងារសម្រាប់រយៈពេលខ្លី។
ទិន្នន័យទីផ្សារការងារតែងតែមានភាពយឺតយ៉ាវ ប៉ុន្តែការថយចុះគឺច្បាស់។ ប្រសិនបើវាបន្ត វានឹងផ្លាស់ប្តូរទស្សនៈម៉ាក្រូទាំងមូល។
ការបង្កើតការងារថយចុះយ៉ាងខ្លាំង។ សេដ្ឋកិច្ចសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកបានបន្ថែមការងារ 765K កន្លែងក្នុងរយៈពេល 18 ខែចុងក្រោយ បើធៀបនឹង 2M+ ក្នុង 18 ខែមុន។ នេះជាការធ្លាក់ចុះ 60%+ នៃល្បឿនកំណើនការងារ។
រឿងនេះមានសារៈសំខាន់សម្រាប់គោលនយោបាយរបស់ Fed អំណាចចំណាយរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ និងហានិភ័យនៃវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ច។ កំណើនការងារយឺតជាធម្មតាលេចឡើងមុនពេលមានបញ្ហាសេដ្ឋកិច្ច — មិនមែនក្រោយទេ។ គួរតាមដានយ៉ាងយកចិត្តទុកដាក់ រួមជាមួយនឹងនិន្នាការប្រាក់ឈ្នួល និងការដាក់ពាក្យស្នើសុំឥណទានអត់ការងារសម្រាប់រយៈពេលខ្លី។
ទិន្នន័យទីផ្សារការងារតែងតែមានភាពយឺតយ៉ាវ ប៉ុន្តែការថយចុះគឺច្បាស់។ ប្រសិនបើវាបន្ត វានឹងផ្លាស់ប្តូរទស្សនៈម៉ាក្រូទាំងមូល។
រឿងនេះមានសារៈសំខាន់សម្រាប់គោលនយោបាយរបស់ Fed អំណាចចំណាយរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ និងហានិភ័យនៃវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ច។ កំណើនការងារយឺតជាធម្មតាលេចឡើងមុនពេលមានបញ្ហាសេដ្ឋកិច្ច — មិនមែនក្រោយទេ។ គួរតាមដានយ៉ាងយកចិត្តទុកដាក់ រួមជាមួយនឹងនិន្នាការប្រាក់ឈ្នួល និងការដាក់ពាក្យស្នើសុំឥណទានអត់ការងារសម្រាប់រយៈពេលខ្លី។
ទិន្នន័យទីផ្សារការងារតែងតែមានភាពយឺតយ៉ាវ ប៉ុន្តែការថយចុះគឺច្បាស់។ ប្រសិនបើវាបន្ត វានឹងផ្លាស់ប្តូរទស្សនៈម៉ាក្រូទាំងមូល។
570
ເປັນຄວາມຈິງບາງສ່ວນ
ទីផ្សារអនាគតគឺស្ទើរតែ 50/50 ថា តើយើងនឹងមានការដំឡើងអត្រាក្នុងរយៈពេលពីរសប្តាហ៍ទៀតឬអត់។ ជាស្ថានការណ៍បោះកាក់បែបប្រពៃណី។
នេះជារូបរាងនៃភាពមិនប្រាកដខ្ពស់បំផុត។ ទីផ្សារកំពុងប្រាប់អ្នកថា វាមិនពិតជាដឹងទេ — នោះមានន័យថា ទិន្នន័យពីពេលនេះដល់ថ្ងៃសម្រេចនឹងមានសារៈសំខាន់ជាងធម្មតា។
ចំណាំ៖ ពេលដែលទីផ្សារត្រូវបានបែងចែកយ៉ាងនេះ ជាធម្មតា គឺដោយសារតែ Fed ខ្លួនឯងមិនទាន់សម្រេចចិត្ត។ ពួកគេកំពុងតាមដានទិន្នន័យថ្មីដែលចូលមកដូចជាយើងដែរ។
ទីផ្សារអនាគតគឺស្ទើរតែ 50/50 ថា តើយើងនឹងមានការដំឡើងអត្រាក្នុងរយៈពេលពីរសប្តាហ៍ទៀតឬអត់។ ជាស្ថានការណ៍បោះកាក់បែបប្រពៃណី។
នេះជារូបរាងនៃភាពមិនប្រាកដខ្ពស់បំផុត។ ទីផ្សារកំពុងប្រាប់អ្នកថា វាមិនពិតជាដឹងទេ — នោះមានន័យថា ទិន្នន័យពីពេលនេះដល់ថ្ងៃសម្រេចនឹងមានសារៈសំខាន់ជាងធម្មតា។
ចំណាំ៖ ពេលដែលទីផ្សារត្រូវបានបែងចែកយ៉ាងនេះ ជាធម្មតា គឺដោយសារតែ Fed ខ្លួនឯងមិនទាន់សម្រេចចិត្ត។ ពួកគេកំពុងតាមដានទិន្នន័យថ្មីដែលចូលមកដូចជាយើងដែរ។
នេះជារូបរាងនៃភាពមិនប្រាកដខ្ពស់បំផុត។ ទីផ្សារកំពុងប្រាប់អ្នកថា វាមិនពិតជាដឹងទេ — នោះមានន័យថា ទិន្នន័យពីពេលនេះដល់ថ្ងៃសម្រេចនឹងមានសារៈសំខាន់ជាងធម្មតា។
ចំណាំ៖ ពេលដែលទីផ្សារត្រូវបានបែងចែកយ៉ាងនេះ ជាធម្មតា គឺដោយសារតែ Fed ខ្លួនឯងមិនទាន់សម្រេចចិត្ត។ ពួកគេកំពុងតាមដានទិន្នន័យថ្មីដែលចូលមកដូចជាយើងដែរ។
691
Charlie Munger ວ່າໄດ້ຖືກແທ້: "ການລົງທຶນແມ່ນບ່ອນທີ່ເຈົ້າຊອກຫາບໍລິສັດຍອດເຢັ່ຍບາງບໍລິສັດ ແລ້ວນັ່ງຢູ່ຉາຍຫຼັງ."
ນີ້ອາດເປັນຄໍາແນະນຳທີ່ຖືກບໍ່ຖືກຄົນເອີ້ນວ່າດີກວ່າໝົດໃນວົງການການເງິນ. ຄວາມໄດ້ປຽບທີ່ແທ້ບໍ່ແມ່ນຢູ່ໃນການຊື້ຂາຍໃຫ້ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນ, ຕິດຕາມກະແສ, ຫຼືປັບຕຳແໜ່ງເລື້ອຍໆ. ມັນຢູ່ໃນການລົງເຮັດວຽກທີ່ຍາກໃນຕອນຕົ້ນ — ການຊອກຫາຄຸນນະພາບ — ແລ້ວມີວິໄນແລະຄວາມສາມາດບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ.
ຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ບໍ່ສາມາດນັ່ງຢູ່ກັບທີ່. ພວກເຂົາສັບສົນການເຄື່ອນໄຫວກັບຄວາມກ້າວໜ້າ. ພວກເຂົາກວດເບິ່ງລາຄາຢ່າງກັບກັນ, ຕອບສະໜອງຕໍ່ຂ່າວຫົວຂໍ້, ປັບສັດສ່ວນການຈັດສັນ. ໃນຂະນະທີ່ນັ້ນ, ການທະວີຄູນ (compounding) ກໍເຮັດວຽກຂອງມັນແບບງຽບໆ ໃນພື້ນຫຼັງສຳລັບຜູ້ທີ່ອົດທົນພໍທີ່ຈະໃຫ້ມັນເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ນັກລົງທຶນທີ່ດີທີ່ຂ້ອຍຮູ້ຈັກ ໃຊ້ເວລາອ່ານ, ຄິດ, ແລະ ລໍຖ້າ ຫຼາຍກວ່າການຊື້ ແລະ ຂາຍ. ເມື່ອເຈົ້າເປັນເຈົ້າຂອງສິ່ງທີ່ດີແທ້, ການກະທຳຕັ້ງຕົ້ນ (default) ແມ່ນການຖືໄວ້. ບໍ່ແມ່ນຕະຫຼອດໄປ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນດົນກວ່າທີ່ຮູ້ສຶກວ່າສະບາຍທີ່ສຸດ.
ການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ (inaction) ແມ່ນເປັນຍຸດທະສາດ. ບາງຄັ້ງສິ່ງທີ່ຍາກກວ່າ — ແລະ ສະຫຼາດກວ່າ — ກໍຄືການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງເລີຍ.
Charlie Munger ວ່າໄດ້ຖືກແທ້: "ການລົງທຶນແມ່ນບ່ອນທີ່ເຈົ້າຊອກຫາບໍລິສັດຍອດເຢັ່ຍບາງບໍລິສັດ ແລ້ວນັ່ງຢູ່ຉາຍຫຼັງ."
ນີ້ອາດເປັນຄໍາແນະນຳທີ່ຖືກບໍ່ຖືກຄົນເອີ້ນວ່າດີກວ່າໝົດໃນວົງການການເງິນ. ຄວາມໄດ້ປຽບທີ່ແທ້ບໍ່ແມ່ນຢູ່ໃນການຊື້ຂາຍໃຫ້ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນ, ຕິດຕາມກະແສ, ຫຼືປັບຕຳແໜ່ງເລື້ອຍໆ. ມັນຢູ່ໃນການລົງເຮັດວຽກທີ່ຍາກໃນຕອນຕົ້ນ — ການຊອກຫາຄຸນນະພາບ — ແລ້ວມີວິໄນແລະຄວາມສາມາດບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ.
ຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ບໍ່ສາມາດນັ່ງຢູ່ກັບທີ່. ພວກເຂົາສັບສົນການເຄື່ອນໄຫວກັບຄວາມກ້າວໜ້າ. ພວກເຂົາກວດເບິ່ງລາຄາຢ່າງກັບກັນ, ຕອບສະໜອງຕໍ່ຂ່າວຫົວຂໍ້, ປັບສັດສ່ວນການຈັດສັນ. ໃນຂະນະທີ່ນັ້ນ, ການທະວີຄູນ (compounding) ກໍເຮັດວຽກຂອງມັນແບບງຽບໆ ໃນພື້ນຫຼັງສຳລັບຜູ້ທີ່ອົດທົນພໍທີ່ຈະໃຫ້ມັນເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ນັກລົງທຶນທີ່ດີທີ່ຂ້ອຍຮູ້ຈັກ ໃຊ້ເວລາອ່ານ, ຄິດ, ແລະ ລໍຖ້າ ຫຼາຍກວ່າການຊື້ ແລະ ຂາຍ. ເມື່ອເຈົ້າເປັນເຈົ້າຂອງສິ່ງທີ່ດີແທ້, ການກະທຳຕັ້ງຕົ້ນ (default) ແມ່ນການຖືໄວ້. ບໍ່ແມ່ນຕະຫຼອດໄປ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນດົນກວ່າທີ່ຮູ້ສຶກວ່າສະບາຍທີ່ສຸດ.
ການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ (inaction) ແມ່ນເປັນຍຸດທະສາດ. ບາງຄັ້ງສິ່ງທີ່ຍາກກວ່າ — ແລະ ສະຫຼາດກວ່າ — ກໍຄືການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງເລີຍ.
ນີ້ອາດເປັນຄໍາແນະນຳທີ່ຖືກບໍ່ຖືກຄົນເອີ້ນວ່າດີກວ່າໝົດໃນວົງການການເງິນ. ຄວາມໄດ້ປຽບທີ່ແທ້ບໍ່ແມ່ນຢູ່ໃນການຊື້ຂາຍໃຫ້ຫຼາຍຂຶ້ນ, ຕິດຕາມກະແສ, ຫຼືປັບຕຳແໜ່ງເລື້ອຍໆ. ມັນຢູ່ໃນການລົງເຮັດວຽກທີ່ຍາກໃນຕອນຕົ້ນ — ການຊອກຫາຄຸນນະພາບ — ແລ້ວມີວິໄນແລະຄວາມສາມາດບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ.
ຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ບໍ່ສາມາດນັ່ງຢູ່ກັບທີ່. ພວກເຂົາສັບສົນການເຄື່ອນໄຫວກັບຄວາມກ້າວໜ້າ. ພວກເຂົາກວດເບິ່ງລາຄາຢ່າງກັບກັນ, ຕອບສະໜອງຕໍ່ຂ່າວຫົວຂໍ້, ປັບສັດສ່ວນການຈັດສັນ. ໃນຂະນະທີ່ນັ້ນ, ການທະວີຄູນ (compounding) ກໍເຮັດວຽກຂອງມັນແບບງຽບໆ ໃນພື້ນຫຼັງສຳລັບຜູ້ທີ່ອົດທົນພໍທີ່ຈະໃຫ້ມັນເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ນັກລົງທຶນທີ່ດີທີ່ຂ້ອຍຮູ້ຈັກ ໃຊ້ເວລາອ່ານ, ຄິດ, ແລະ ລໍຖ້າ ຫຼາຍກວ່າການຊື້ ແລະ ຂາຍ. ເມື່ອເຈົ້າເປັນເຈົ້າຂອງສິ່ງທີ່ດີແທ້, ການກະທຳຕັ້ງຕົ້ນ (default) ແມ່ນການຖືໄວ້. ບໍ່ແມ່ນຕະຫຼອດໄປ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນດົນກວ່າທີ່ຮູ້ສຶກວ່າສະບາຍທີ່ສຸດ.
ການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງ (inaction) ແມ່ນເປັນຍຸດທະສາດ. ບາງຄັ້ງສິ່ງທີ່ຍາກກວ່າ — ແລະ ສະຫຼາດກວ່າ — ກໍຄືການບໍ່ເຮັດຫຍັງເລີຍ.
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Luang e: kapag pinapanood ng Fed ang mga pamilihan at pinapanood ng mga pamilihan ang Fed, nabubuo ang feedback loop na puwedeng makaligtaan kung ano talaga ang nangyayari sa tunay na ekonomiya.
Sa huli, pareho silang puwedeng tumugon sa isa't isa imbes na sa mga pundasyon—at kapag ganoon, lahat ay mabibigla sa susunod na pagbabago na walang nakakita.
Luang e: kapag pinapanood ng Fed ang mga pamilihan at pinapanood ng mga pamilihan ang Fed, nabubuo ang feedback loop na puwedeng makaligtaan kung ano talaga ang nangyayari sa tunay na ekonomiya.
Sa huli, pareho silang puwedeng tumugon sa isa't isa imbes na sa mga pundasyon—at kapag ganoon, lahat ay mabibigla sa susunod na pagbabago na walang nakakita.
Sa huli, pareho silang puwedeng tumugon sa isa't isa imbes na sa mga pundasyon—at kapag ganoon, lahat ay mabibigla sa susunod na pagbabago na walang nakakita.
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I-S&P 500 i-Total Return inyuke ngo-162.76% phakathi nengxenye yokuqala kwezintathu zale minyaka eyishumi.
Lokho wukusebenza okumangalisayo ngokwezindinganiso zomlando. Sikhuluma ngokuphinda kabili imali yakho noma ngaphezulu eminyakeni engaphansi kwesikhombisa — kufaka phakathi nezinzuzo (dividends) ezisetshenziselwa ukuphinda utshale.
Kubalulekile ukubeka lokhu esimweni. Lolu hlobo lokusebenza alwenzeki “ngaphandle kwesizathu.” Sibone ukukhula okuqinile kwemali engenayo (earnings growth), ukwanda kokubiza (multiple expansion), kanye nesimo lapho ukuchitha kwabathengi kusekelwa (resilient consumer spending) nobufakazi bokuthi izinkampani ziyakwazi ukuzuza (corporate profitability). Kodwa futhi kuyavusa umbuzo ocacile: ingabe ingxenye yokugcina yezothini?
Umlando usitshela ukuthi amashumi eminyaka amakhulu awasoze aphele kahle ngaso sonke isikhathi, kanti amashumi eminyaka abuthakathaka kwesinye isikhathi ayamangaza ngokuhle. Ama-1990s ashaye ngamandla afinyelela ku-1999–2000 ngaphambi kokuba “i-tech bubble” iqhume. Ama-2000s adonse kanzima phakathi nezimakethe ezimbili ezinzima zokuwa (bear markets). Kanti ama-2010s athule akhulisa ingcebo kulabo abahlala betshaliwe.
Akukhona ukunquma ukubikezela iminyaka emithathu edlula (3+ years) elandelayo. Kuwukukhumbula ukuthi imbuyiselo (returns) iyenzeka ngamaqhubu (lumpy), ukuguquka kube yilinganiso (mean reversion) kuyinto yangempela, futhi abatshalizimali abahamba phambili bahlala beqinile (grounded) kungakhathalekile ukuthi ibhodi libonisa okumnandi noma okubi.
Uma uye wazuza kulokhu kugijima, thatha isikhashana uphinde uhlole ukuthi ubungozi (risk exposure) bakho buphakeme kangakanani, uhlele kabusha (rebalance) uma kudingeka, bese uqinisekisa ukuthi iphothifoliyo yakho isahambisana nezinhlelo zakho zangempela nesikhathi ohlose ngaso. Imibuso yama-bull markets yenza wonke umuntu azizwe eyisazi kuze kube yilapho ingasayikumnandi.
I-S&P 500 i-Total Return inyuke ngo-162.76% phakathi nengxenye yokuqala kwezintathu zale minyaka eyishumi.
Lokho wukusebenza okumangalisayo ngokwezindinganiso zomlando. Sikhuluma ngokuphinda kabili imali yakho noma ngaphezulu eminyakeni engaphansi kwesikhombisa — kufaka phakathi nezinzuzo (dividends) ezisetshenziselwa ukuphinda utshale.
Kubalulekile ukubeka lokhu esimweni. Lolu hlobo lokusebenza alwenzeki “ngaphandle kwesizathu.” Sibone ukukhula okuqinile kwemali engenayo (earnings growth), ukwanda kokubiza (multiple expansion), kanye nesimo lapho ukuchitha kwabathengi kusekelwa (resilient consumer spending) nobufakazi bokuthi izinkampani ziyakwazi ukuzuza (corporate profitability). Kodwa futhi kuyavusa umbuzo ocacile: ingabe ingxenye yokugcina yezothini?
Umlando usitshela ukuthi amashumi eminyaka amakhulu awasoze aphele kahle ngaso sonke isikhathi, kanti amashumi eminyaka abuthakathaka kwesinye isikhathi ayamangaza ngokuhle. Ama-1990s ashaye ngamandla afinyelela ku-1999–2000 ngaphambi kokuba “i-tech bubble” iqhume. Ama-2000s adonse kanzima phakathi nezimakethe ezimbili ezinzima zokuwa (bear markets). Kanti ama-2010s athule akhulisa ingcebo kulabo abahlala betshaliwe.
Akukhona ukunquma ukubikezela iminyaka emithathu edlula (3+ years) elandelayo. Kuwukukhumbula ukuthi imbuyiselo (returns) iyenzeka ngamaqhubu (lumpy), ukuguquka kube yilinganiso (mean reversion) kuyinto yangempela, futhi abatshalizimali abahamba phambili bahlala beqinile (grounded) kungakhathalekile ukuthi ibhodi libonisa okumnandi noma okubi.
Uma uye wazuza kulokhu kugijima, thatha isikhashana uphinde uhlole ukuthi ubungozi (risk exposure) bakho buphakeme kangakanani, uhlele kabusha (rebalance) uma kudingeka, bese uqinisekisa ukuthi iphothifoliyo yakho isahambisana nezinhlelo zakho zangempela nesikhathi ohlose ngaso. Imibuso yama-bull markets yenza wonke umuntu azizwe eyisazi kuze kube yilapho ingasayikumnandi.
Lokho wukusebenza okumangalisayo ngokwezindinganiso zomlando. Sikhuluma ngokuphinda kabili imali yakho noma ngaphezulu eminyakeni engaphansi kwesikhombisa — kufaka phakathi nezinzuzo (dividends) ezisetshenziselwa ukuphinda utshale.
Kubalulekile ukubeka lokhu esimweni. Lolu hlobo lokusebenza alwenzeki “ngaphandle kwesizathu.” Sibone ukukhula okuqinile kwemali engenayo (earnings growth), ukwanda kokubiza (multiple expansion), kanye nesimo lapho ukuchitha kwabathengi kusekelwa (resilient consumer spending) nobufakazi bokuthi izinkampani ziyakwazi ukuzuza (corporate profitability). Kodwa futhi kuyavusa umbuzo ocacile: ingabe ingxenye yokugcina yezothini?
Umlando usitshela ukuthi amashumi eminyaka amakhulu awasoze aphele kahle ngaso sonke isikhathi, kanti amashumi eminyaka abuthakathaka kwesinye isikhathi ayamangaza ngokuhle. Ama-1990s ashaye ngamandla afinyelela ku-1999–2000 ngaphambi kokuba “i-tech bubble” iqhume. Ama-2000s adonse kanzima phakathi nezimakethe ezimbili ezinzima zokuwa (bear markets). Kanti ama-2010s athule akhulisa ingcebo kulabo abahlala betshaliwe.
Akukhona ukunquma ukubikezela iminyaka emithathu edlula (3+ years) elandelayo. Kuwukukhumbula ukuthi imbuyiselo (returns) iyenzeka ngamaqhubu (lumpy), ukuguquka kube yilinganiso (mean reversion) kuyinto yangempela, futhi abatshalizimali abahamba phambili bahlala beqinile (grounded) kungakhathalekile ukuthi ibhodi libonisa okumnandi noma okubi.
Uma uye wazuza kulokhu kugijima, thatha isikhashana uphinde uhlole ukuthi ubungozi (risk exposure) bakho buphakeme kangakanani, uhlele kabusha (rebalance) uma kudingeka, bese uqinisekisa ukuthi iphothifoliyo yakho isahambisana nezinhlelo zakho zangempela nesikhathi ohlose ngaso. Imibuso yama-bull markets yenza wonke umuntu azizwe eyisazi kuze kube yilapho ingasayikumnandi.
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ການລາຄາຕະຫຼາດຟິວເຈີ (futures) ສະແດງເຖິງການຂຶ້ນດອກເບ້ຍຂອງ Fed ໃນອີກສອງອາທິດ — ເວົ້າງ່າຍໆ ກໍຄືວ່າກຳນົດແນ່ນອນແລ້ວຕອນນີ້. ເດືອນທັນວາແມ່ນອີກເລື່ອງໜຶ່ງ, ປັດຈຸບັນຢູ່ທີ່ 50/50.
ບໍ່ແປກໃຈ ຈາກຂໍ້ມູນທີ່ພວກເຮົາໄດ້ເຫັນ. ຄຳຖາມທີ່ສຳຄັນບໍ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຂຶ້ນຄັ້ງໜ້າບໍ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຢຸດຫຼັງຈາກນັ້ນ ຫຼື ຍັງຈະດັນຕໍ່. ຕະຫຼາດໄດ້ຄາດຄະເນປາຍທາງຂອງວົງຈອນເຫຼົ່ານີ້ໃນປະຫວັດສາດມາແບບແຍ່ຄືນຫຼາຍ.
ຈື່ຈຳໄວ້: Fed ບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງພອດໂຟລິໂອຂອງທ່ານ. ພວກເຂົາສົນໃຈລາຍງານອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ ແລະ ຂໍ້ມູນການຈ້າງງານ. ສິ່ງອື່ນໆ ແມ່ນສຽງລົບກວນ.
ການລາຄາຕະຫຼາດຟິວເຈີ (futures) ສະແດງເຖິງການຂຶ້ນດອກເບ້ຍຂອງ Fed ໃນອີກສອງອາທິດ — ເວົ້າງ່າຍໆ ກໍຄືວ່າກຳນົດແນ່ນອນແລ້ວຕອນນີ້. ເດືອນທັນວາແມ່ນອີກເລື່ອງໜຶ່ງ, ປັດຈຸບັນຢູ່ທີ່ 50/50.
ບໍ່ແປກໃຈ ຈາກຂໍ້ມູນທີ່ພວກເຮົາໄດ້ເຫັນ. ຄຳຖາມທີ່ສຳຄັນບໍ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຂຶ້ນຄັ້ງໜ້າບໍ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຢຸດຫຼັງຈາກນັ້ນ ຫຼື ຍັງຈະດັນຕໍ່. ຕະຫຼາດໄດ້ຄາດຄະເນປາຍທາງຂອງວົງຈອນເຫຼົ່ານີ້ໃນປະຫວັດສາດມາແບບແຍ່ຄືນຫຼາຍ.
ຈື່ຈຳໄວ້: Fed ບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງພອດໂຟລິໂອຂອງທ່ານ. ພວກເຂົາສົນໃຈລາຍງານອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ ແລະ ຂໍ້ມູນການຈ້າງງານ. ສິ່ງອື່ນໆ ແມ່ນສຽງລົບກວນ.
ບໍ່ແປກໃຈ ຈາກຂໍ້ມູນທີ່ພວກເຮົາໄດ້ເຫັນ. ຄຳຖາມທີ່ສຳຄັນບໍ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຂຶ້ນຄັ້ງໜ້າບໍ, ແຕ່ແມ່ນວ່າພວກເຂົາຈະຢຸດຫຼັງຈາກນັ້ນ ຫຼື ຍັງຈະດັນຕໍ່. ຕະຫຼາດໄດ້ຄາດຄະເນປາຍທາງຂອງວົງຈອນເຫຼົ່ານີ້ໃນປະຫວັດສາດມາແບບແຍ່ຄືນຫຼາຍ.
ຈື່ຈຳໄວ້: Fed ບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກຂອງພອດໂຟລິໂອຂອງທ່ານ. ພວກເຂົາສົນໃຈລາຍງານອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ ແລະ ຂໍ້ມູນການຈ້າງງານ. ສິ່ງອື່ນໆ ແມ່ນສຽງລົບກວນ.
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ຕະຫຼາດກຳພັນເລີ່ມກັງວົນຫຼັງຈາກຄຳເຫັນລ່າສຸດຂອງ Warsh ຈຸດປະກາຍຄວາມຄາດເດົາການຂຶ້ນອັດຕາຄັ້ງໃໝ່. ແບບການ “ກະຊິບ” ຂອງ Fed ຄລາສສິກ — ແຂງຄຳເວົ້າພຽງແຕ່ຫນຶ່ງ ແລ້ວທຸກຄົນກໍປັບລາຄາການຄາດຄະເນໄລຍະອາຍຸ (duration) ຂອງຕົນທັນທີ.
ນີ້ແມ່ນເຫດຜົນທີ່ຂ້ອຍຍັງພາຍເວົ້າສະເໝີ: ຢ່າຕໍ່ສູ້ກັບ Fed ແຕ່ກໍຢ່າປະຕິກິລິຢ່າງເກີນໄປຕໍ່ທຸກຄຳເວົ້າ. ນັກລົງທຶນພັນທະບັດເຄີຍຖືກແລ້ວຈາກການອ່ານໃຈຄວາມໝາຍຫຼາຍເກີນໄປຈາກຄຳເວົ້າຂອງຜູ້ວ່າການ Fed ຄົນໜຶ່ງ. ຕະຫຼາດກຳລັງປັ້ນລາຄາໃນສະຖານະການທີ່ອາດຈະບໍ່ເຄີຍເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນ: ຕະຫຼາດກຳພັນເບິ່ງລ່ວງໜ້າ (forward-looking) ແຕ່ກໍແມ່ນທັງອາລົມ. ຄວາມຄາດເດົາດ້ານອັດຕາປ່ຽນໄວ, ແຕ່ການດຳເນີນນະໂຍບາຍຈິງແມ່ນຊ້າ. ຖ້າທ່ານກຳລັງປັບຕຳແໜ່ງພອດສະຫຼອງທັງໝົດໂດຍອີງໃສ່ຄຳເວົ້າອັນດຽວ, ນັ້ນເປັນການທຳການຊື້-ຂາຍ (trading) ຫຼາຍກວ່າການລົງທຶນ (investing).
ເບິ່ງວ່າ Fed ເຮັດຫຍັງກັບຂໍ້ມູນ, ບໍ່ແມ່ນເບິ່ງວ່າຜູ້ວ່າການຄົນໜຶ່ງເວົ້າຫຍັງໃນກອງປະຊຸມ.
ຕະຫຼາດກຳພັນເລີ່ມກັງວົນຫຼັງຈາກຄຳເຫັນລ່າສຸດຂອງ Warsh ຈຸດປະກາຍຄວາມຄາດເດົາການຂຶ້ນອັດຕາຄັ້ງໃໝ່. ແບບການ “ກະຊິບ” ຂອງ Fed ຄລາສສິກ — ແຂງຄຳເວົ້າພຽງແຕ່ຫນຶ່ງ ແລ້ວທຸກຄົນກໍປັບລາຄາການຄາດຄະເນໄລຍະອາຍຸ (duration) ຂອງຕົນທັນທີ.
ນີ້ແມ່ນເຫດຜົນທີ່ຂ້ອຍຍັງພາຍເວົ້າສະເໝີ: ຢ່າຕໍ່ສູ້ກັບ Fed ແຕ່ກໍຢ່າປະຕິກິລິຢ່າງເກີນໄປຕໍ່ທຸກຄຳເວົ້າ. ນັກລົງທຶນພັນທະບັດເຄີຍຖືກແລ້ວຈາກການອ່ານໃຈຄວາມໝາຍຫຼາຍເກີນໄປຈາກຄຳເວົ້າຂອງຜູ້ວ່າການ Fed ຄົນໜຶ່ງ. ຕະຫຼາດກຳລັງປັ້ນລາຄາໃນສະຖານະການທີ່ອາດຈະບໍ່ເຄີຍເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນ: ຕະຫຼາດກຳພັນເບິ່ງລ່ວງໜ້າ (forward-looking) ແຕ່ກໍແມ່ນທັງອາລົມ. ຄວາມຄາດເດົາດ້ານອັດຕາປ່ຽນໄວ, ແຕ່ການດຳເນີນນະໂຍບາຍຈິງແມ່ນຊ້າ. ຖ້າທ່ານກຳລັງປັບຕຳແໜ່ງພອດສະຫຼອງທັງໝົດໂດຍອີງໃສ່ຄຳເວົ້າອັນດຽວ, ນັ້ນເປັນການທຳການຊື້-ຂາຍ (trading) ຫຼາຍກວ່າການລົງທຶນ (investing).
ເບິ່ງວ່າ Fed ເຮັດຫຍັງກັບຂໍ້ມູນ, ບໍ່ແມ່ນເບິ່ງວ່າຜູ້ວ່າການຄົນໜຶ່ງເວົ້າຫຍັງໃນກອງປະຊຸມ.
ນີ້ແມ່ນເຫດຜົນທີ່ຂ້ອຍຍັງພາຍເວົ້າສະເໝີ: ຢ່າຕໍ່ສູ້ກັບ Fed ແຕ່ກໍຢ່າປະຕິກິລິຢ່າງເກີນໄປຕໍ່ທຸກຄຳເວົ້າ. ນັກລົງທຶນພັນທະບັດເຄີຍຖືກແລ້ວຈາກການອ່ານໃຈຄວາມໝາຍຫຼາຍເກີນໄປຈາກຄຳເວົ້າຂອງຜູ້ວ່າການ Fed ຄົນໜຶ່ງ. ຕະຫຼາດກຳລັງປັ້ນລາຄາໃນສະຖານະການທີ່ອາດຈະບໍ່ເຄີຍເກີດຂຶ້ນ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນ: ຕະຫຼາດກຳພັນເບິ່ງລ່ວງໜ້າ (forward-looking) ແຕ່ກໍແມ່ນທັງອາລົມ. ຄວາມຄາດເດົາດ້ານອັດຕາປ່ຽນໄວ, ແຕ່ການດຳເນີນນະໂຍບາຍຈິງແມ່ນຊ້າ. ຖ້າທ່ານກຳລັງປັບຕຳແໜ່ງພອດສະຫຼອງທັງໝົດໂດຍອີງໃສ່ຄຳເວົ້າອັນດຽວ, ນັ້ນເປັນການທຳການຊື້-ຂາຍ (trading) ຫຼາຍກວ່າການລົງທຶນ (investing).
ເບິ່ງວ່າ Fed ເຮັດຫຍັງກັບຂໍ້ມູນ, ບໍ່ແມ່ນເບິ່ງວ່າຜູ້ວ່າການຄົນໜຶ່ງເວົ້າຫຍັງໃນກອງປະຊຸມ.
483
ກວດມຸມຄິດແບບຫຼາຍມຸມ: $NVDA ລົງ 10% ຈາກຕົ້ນປີ 2002 ຈົນຮອດທ້າຍປີ 2014. ນັ້ນແມ່ນ 13 ປີທີ່ເກືອບບໍ່ໄດ້ໄປໃສ່ໃດ.
ຕອນນີ້ມັນແມ່ນໜຶ່ງໃນບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີມູນຄ່າຫຼາຍທີ່ສຸດໃນໂລກ.
ເຕືອນຄືນວ່າ ແມ່ນແຕ່ທຸລະກິດທີ່ດີທີ່ສຸດກໍສາມາດໃຊ້ເວລາເປັນປີ — ບາງຄັ້ງຫຼາຍກວ່າສິບປີ — ໂດຍບໍ່ໄດ້ເຮັດຫຍັງໃຫ້ຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ. ເວລາມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ຄວາມອົດທົນມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ແລະ ບາງຄັ້ງຕະຫຼາດກໍບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈບໍລິສັດທີ່ດີ ຈົນກວ່າມັນຈະສົນໃຈຂຶ້ນມາທັນໃດນັ້ນ.
ຖ້າທ່ານຖືຫຸ້ນຜ່ານຊ່ວງນັ້ນ, ທ່ານຫຼື ຄວາມໝັ້ນໃຈຫຼາຍກວ່າຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ມີ, ຫຼືທ່ານລືມໄປແລ້ວວ່າທ່ານເຄີຍຖືມັນ. ຢ່າງໃດກໍຕາມ, ມັນເຮັດໃຫ້ໄດ້ຜົນ.
ກວດມຸມຄິດແບບຫຼາຍມຸມ: $NVDA ລົງ 10% ຈາກຕົ້ນປີ 2002 ຈົນຮອດທ້າຍປີ 2014. ນັ້ນແມ່ນ 13 ປີທີ່ເກືອບບໍ່ໄດ້ໄປໃສ່ໃດ.
ຕອນນີ້ມັນແມ່ນໜຶ່ງໃນບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີມູນຄ່າຫຼາຍທີ່ສຸດໃນໂລກ.
ເຕືອນຄືນວ່າ ແມ່ນແຕ່ທຸລະກິດທີ່ດີທີ່ສຸດກໍສາມາດໃຊ້ເວລາເປັນປີ — ບາງຄັ້ງຫຼາຍກວ່າສິບປີ — ໂດຍບໍ່ໄດ້ເຮັດຫຍັງໃຫ້ຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ. ເວລາມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ຄວາມອົດທົນມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ແລະ ບາງຄັ້ງຕະຫຼາດກໍບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈບໍລິສັດທີ່ດີ ຈົນກວ່າມັນຈະສົນໃຈຂຶ້ນມາທັນໃດນັ້ນ.
ຖ້າທ່ານຖືຫຸ້ນຜ່ານຊ່ວງນັ້ນ, ທ່ານຫຼື ຄວາມໝັ້ນໃຈຫຼາຍກວ່າຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ມີ, ຫຼືທ່ານລືມໄປແລ້ວວ່າທ່ານເຄີຍຖືມັນ. ຢ່າງໃດກໍຕາມ, ມັນເຮັດໃຫ້ໄດ້ຜົນ.
ຕອນນີ້ມັນແມ່ນໜຶ່ງໃນບໍລິສັດທີ່ມີມູນຄ່າຫຼາຍທີ່ສຸດໃນໂລກ.
ເຕືອນຄືນວ່າ ແມ່ນແຕ່ທຸລະກິດທີ່ດີທີ່ສຸດກໍສາມາດໃຊ້ເວລາເປັນປີ — ບາງຄັ້ງຫຼາຍກວ່າສິບປີ — ໂດຍບໍ່ໄດ້ເຮັດຫຍັງໃຫ້ຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ. ເວລາມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ຄວາມອົດທົນມີຄວາມສຳຄັນ. ແລະ ບາງຄັ້ງຕະຫຼາດກໍບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈບໍລິສັດທີ່ດີ ຈົນກວ່າມັນຈະສົນໃຈຂຶ້ນມາທັນໃດນັ້ນ.
ຖ້າທ່ານຖືຫຸ້ນຜ່ານຊ່ວງນັ້ນ, ທ່ານຫຼື ຄວາມໝັ້ນໃຈຫຼາຍກວ່າຄົນສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ມີ, ຫຼືທ່ານລືມໄປແລ້ວວ່າທ່ານເຄີຍຖືມັນ. ຢ່າງໃດກໍຕາມ, ມັນເຮັດໃຫ້ໄດ້ຜົນ.
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"Daddy, what were mortgage rates?"
"Well, when a middle-class person wanted to buy a house..."
"Daddy, what was the middle class?"
Ubukata-nakuhanan, pero mas tumatama kapag tiningnan mo ang mga tsart ng abot-kayang pabahay. Dati, ang mortgage rates ang pangunahing variable sa equation. Ngayon? Kahit bumababa ang rates, hindi na nagwo-work ang math para sa karamihan ng tao. Sobrang tumaas ang presyo, hindi nakahabol ang sahod, at lalo pang umaatras ang entry point para sa pagiging homeowner.
Hindi na lang ito problemang rates. Isa na itong affordability crisis na kumakapit sa lahat — behavior sa pag-ipon, pagbuo ng pamilya, paggastos ng konsyumer, pati kung paano iniisip ng mga tao ang pagbuo ng yaman. Ang pabahay ang tradisyunal na daan patungo sa katatagan ng middle class. Kapag iyon ay nasira, maraming ibang palagay ang napuputol din.
Tandaan: ang exchange rates, interest rates, at asset prices ay magkakaugnay lahat. Ang isang malakas na dolyar ay maaaring makatulong sa budget mo sa bakasyon o gawing mas mura ang mga import, pero nakakaapekto rin ito sa kung paano dumadaloy ang kapital, kung saan napupunta ang pera, at sa huli, kung magkano ang mga bagay sa bahay. Ang malaking macro picture laging tumatagos pababa sa personal finance na realidad.
"Daddy, what were mortgage rates?"
"Well, when a middle-class person wanted to buy a house..."
"Daddy, what was the middle class?"
Ubukata-nakuhanan, pero mas tumatama kapag tiningnan mo ang mga tsart ng abot-kayang pabahay. Dati, ang mortgage rates ang pangunahing variable sa equation. Ngayon? Kahit bumababa ang rates, hindi na nagwo-work ang math para sa karamihan ng tao. Sobrang tumaas ang presyo, hindi nakahabol ang sahod, at lalo pang umaatras ang entry point para sa pagiging homeowner.
Hindi na lang ito problemang rates. Isa na itong affordability crisis na kumakapit sa lahat — behavior sa pag-ipon, pagbuo ng pamilya, paggastos ng konsyumer, pati kung paano iniisip ng mga tao ang pagbuo ng yaman. Ang pabahay ang tradisyunal na daan patungo sa katatagan ng middle class. Kapag iyon ay nasira, maraming ibang palagay ang napuputol din.
Tandaan: ang exchange rates, interest rates, at asset prices ay magkakaugnay lahat. Ang isang malakas na dolyar ay maaaring makatulong sa budget mo sa bakasyon o gawing mas mura ang mga import, pero nakakaapekto rin ito sa kung paano dumadaloy ang kapital, kung saan napupunta ang pera, at sa huli, kung magkano ang mga bagay sa bahay. Ang malaking macro picture laging tumatagos pababa sa personal finance na realidad.
"Well, when a middle-class person wanted to buy a house..."
"Daddy, what was the middle class?"
Ubukata-nakuhanan, pero mas tumatama kapag tiningnan mo ang mga tsart ng abot-kayang pabahay. Dati, ang mortgage rates ang pangunahing variable sa equation. Ngayon? Kahit bumababa ang rates, hindi na nagwo-work ang math para sa karamihan ng tao. Sobrang tumaas ang presyo, hindi nakahabol ang sahod, at lalo pang umaatras ang entry point para sa pagiging homeowner.
Hindi na lang ito problemang rates. Isa na itong affordability crisis na kumakapit sa lahat — behavior sa pag-ipon, pagbuo ng pamilya, paggastos ng konsyumer, pati kung paano iniisip ng mga tao ang pagbuo ng yaman. Ang pabahay ang tradisyunal na daan patungo sa katatagan ng middle class. Kapag iyon ay nasira, maraming ibang palagay ang napuputol din.
Tandaan: ang exchange rates, interest rates, at asset prices ay magkakaugnay lahat. Ang isang malakas na dolyar ay maaaring makatulong sa budget mo sa bakasyon o gawing mas mura ang mga import, pero nakakaapekto rin ito sa kung paano dumadaloy ang kapital, kung saan napupunta ang pera, at sa huli, kung magkano ang mga bagay sa bahay. Ang malaking macro picture laging tumatagos pababa sa personal finance na realidad.
429
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I-SEC iyahlola ukusondela kokuwa kwe-hedge fund esebenzisa i-AI. Esinye isikhumbuzo sokuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhle abukhiphi imigomo eyisisekelo yokuphatha ubungozi. Ama-black box ayaphuka. I-leverage iyabulala. Akukho ukushintsha okwenziwa i-machine learning okungakushintsha lokho.
Sike sakubona lokhu ifilimu ngaphambilini ngamafemu e-quant—amamodeli acwebile, i-leverage enkulu, bese kuba wusuku olulodwa olubi bese konke kuyabhidlika. Ilebula ye-AI ayenzi i-fund ingangenwa ukuqhuma. Uma kukhona, ingakhulisa ukuzethemba ngokweqile.
Isifundo sangempela: qonda okuthengayo/okuphethe, yazi ubungozi, futhi ungaze ucabange ukuthi ikhompyutha isivele inakho konke. Imakethe inendlela yokuthobisa wonke umuntu ekugcineni.
I-SEC iyahlola ukusondela kokuwa kwe-hedge fund esebenzisa i-AI. Esinye isikhumbuzo sokuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhle abukhiphi imigomo eyisisekelo yokuphatha ubungozi. Ama-black box ayaphuka. I-leverage iyabulala. Akukho ukushintsha okwenziwa i-machine learning okungakushintsha lokho.
Sike sakubona lokhu ifilimu ngaphambilini ngamafemu e-quant—amamodeli acwebile, i-leverage enkulu, bese kuba wusuku olulodwa olubi bese konke kuyabhidlika. Ilebula ye-AI ayenzi i-fund ingangenwa ukuqhuma. Uma kukhona, ingakhulisa ukuzethemba ngokweqile.
Isifundo sangempela: qonda okuthengayo/okuphethe, yazi ubungozi, futhi ungaze ucabange ukuthi ikhompyutha isivele inakho konke. Imakethe inendlela yokuthobisa wonke umuntu ekugcineni.
Sike sakubona lokhu ifilimu ngaphambilini ngamafemu e-quant—amamodeli acwebile, i-leverage enkulu, bese kuba wusuku olulodwa olubi bese konke kuyabhidlika. Ilebula ye-AI ayenzi i-fund ingangenwa ukuqhuma. Uma kukhona, ingakhulisa ukuzethemba ngokweqile.
Isifundo sangempela: qonda okuthengayo/okuphethe, yazi ubungozi, futhi ungaze ucabange ukuthi ikhompyutha isivele inakho konke. Imakethe inendlela yokuthobisa wonke umuntu ekugcineni.
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ໂຮງຮຽນເອກະຊົນຊັ້ນນຳ ກຳລັງເລີ່ມມອບທຶນຊ່ວຍเหลືອຊຳລະໃຫ້ຄອບຄົວທີ່ມີລາຍຮັບ $500k+ . ການປ່ຽນແປງຢ່າງຮຸນແຮງຕໍ່ສິ່ງທີ່ຖືກນັບວ່າ “ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອ” ສຳລັບຄ່າຮຽນ.
ສະທ້ອນເຖິງ 2 ຢ່າງ: (1) ຄ່າຮຽນໄດ້ເພີ່ມຈົນຂາດກຳຈາກການເຕີບໂຕຂອງລາຍຮັບປົກກະຕິໝົດແລ້ວ, ແລະ (2) ຊັ້ນກາງ-ຊັ້ນເທິງ (upper-middle class) ຖືກກົດດັນໜັກກວ່າທີ່ຄົນຫຼາຍເຂົ້າໃຈ. $500k ເບິ່ງເໝືອນວ່າຫຼາຍ ແຕ່ພໍ່ເຈົ້າຢູ່ໃນລັດທີ່ເສຍພາສີສູງ, ຈ່າຍຄ່າເຮືອນຜ່ອນ (mortgage), ເກັບເງິນໄວ້ສຳລັບການບຳນານ, ແລະ ຕ້ອງຈ່າຍ $60k/ປີຕໍ່ 1 ລູກ ສຳລັບໂຮງຮຽນ.
ບໍ່ໄດ້ບອກວ່າບໍ່ຄວນໃຫ້ຄອບຄົວເຫຼົ່ານີ້ຮູ້ສຶກເມດຕາ. ແຕ່ມັນຊີ້ບອກວ່າ “ພະຍາດຄ່າໃຊ້ແພງ” ໃນການສຶກສາ (ແລະ ສຸຂະພາບ, ແລະ ທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສ) ກຳລັງເລືອ່ນຂຶ້ນໄປຕາມຂັ້ນຊີວິດດ້ວຍຄ່ອຍໆ ໃຫ້ເຖິງລະດັບທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນ. ສິ່ງທີ່ເຄີຍຂຶ້ນເຖິງໄດ້ສຳລັບ 5-10% ອັນດັບທີ່ສູງ ບັດນີ້ກາຍເປັນວ່າຕ້ອງໃຊ້ລາຍຮັບສູງສຸດ 1-2% ເທົ່ານັ້ນ.
ຍັງເປັນການເຕືອນວ່າ ຕົວເລກ “ລາຍຮັບຕາມຕົວເລກທົ່ວໄປ” (nominal income) ກຳລັງບໍ່ຄ່ອຍເຊື່ອຖື ຖ້າບໍ່ມີບໍລິບົດເກີດຈາກສະຖານທີ່, ຂະໜາດຄອບຄົວ, ແລະ ໂຄງສ້າງຄ່າໃຊ້. “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Manhattan ກັບສາມລູກ ແມ່ນຄົນລະກໍລະນີກັບ “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Austin ທີ່ມີລູກພຽງ 1 ຄົນ.
ສະຫຼຸບສຸດທ້າຍ: ຖ້າໂຮງຮຽນຊັ້ນນຳ ກຳລັງກຳນົດຄືນ “ຄວາມຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງຮັບຄວາມຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອ” ແບບເຂັ້ມງວດຂະໜາດນີ້, ມັນບອກທ່ານວ່າມັນມີທັງສອງຢ່າງ: ອຳນາດໃນການຕັ້ງລາຄາ (pricing power) ຂອງໂຮງຮຽນເຫຼົ່ານັ້ນ ແລະ ການສວມທັບທຳລາຍກຳລັງຊື້ (purchasing power) ຢ່າງກວ້າງຂວາງສຳລັບຄົນລາຍຮັບສູງ.
ໂຮງຮຽນເອກະຊົນຊັ້ນນຳ ກຳລັງເລີ່ມມອບທຶນຊ່ວຍเหลືອຊຳລະໃຫ້ຄອບຄົວທີ່ມີລາຍຮັບ $500k+ . ການປ່ຽນແປງຢ່າງຮຸນແຮງຕໍ່ສິ່ງທີ່ຖືກນັບວ່າ “ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອ” ສຳລັບຄ່າຮຽນ.
ສະທ້ອນເຖິງ 2 ຢ່າງ: (1) ຄ່າຮຽນໄດ້ເພີ່ມຈົນຂາດກຳຈາກການເຕີບໂຕຂອງລາຍຮັບປົກກະຕິໝົດແລ້ວ, ແລະ (2) ຊັ້ນກາງ-ຊັ້ນເທິງ (upper-middle class) ຖືກກົດດັນໜັກກວ່າທີ່ຄົນຫຼາຍເຂົ້າໃຈ. $500k ເບິ່ງເໝືອນວ່າຫຼາຍ ແຕ່ພໍ່ເຈົ້າຢູ່ໃນລັດທີ່ເສຍພາສີສູງ, ຈ່າຍຄ່າເຮືອນຜ່ອນ (mortgage), ເກັບເງິນໄວ້ສຳລັບການບຳນານ, ແລະ ຕ້ອງຈ່າຍ $60k/ປີຕໍ່ 1 ລູກ ສຳລັບໂຮງຮຽນ.
ບໍ່ໄດ້ບອກວ່າບໍ່ຄວນໃຫ້ຄອບຄົວເຫຼົ່ານີ້ຮູ້ສຶກເມດຕາ. ແຕ່ມັນຊີ້ບອກວ່າ “ພະຍາດຄ່າໃຊ້ແພງ” ໃນການສຶກສາ (ແລະ ສຸຂະພາບ, ແລະ ທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສ) ກຳລັງເລືອ່ນຂຶ້ນໄປຕາມຂັ້ນຊີວິດດ້ວຍຄ່ອຍໆ ໃຫ້ເຖິງລະດັບທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນ. ສິ່ງທີ່ເຄີຍຂຶ້ນເຖິງໄດ້ສຳລັບ 5-10% ອັນດັບທີ່ສູງ ບັດນີ້ກາຍເປັນວ່າຕ້ອງໃຊ້ລາຍຮັບສູງສຸດ 1-2% ເທົ່ານັ້ນ.
ຍັງເປັນການເຕືອນວ່າ ຕົວເລກ “ລາຍຮັບຕາມຕົວເລກທົ່ວໄປ” (nominal income) ກຳລັງບໍ່ຄ່ອຍເຊື່ອຖື ຖ້າບໍ່ມີບໍລິບົດເກີດຈາກສະຖານທີ່, ຂະໜາດຄອບຄົວ, ແລະ ໂຄງສ້າງຄ່າໃຊ້. “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Manhattan ກັບສາມລູກ ແມ່ນຄົນລະກໍລະນີກັບ “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Austin ທີ່ມີລູກພຽງ 1 ຄົນ.
ສະຫຼຸບສຸດທ້າຍ: ຖ້າໂຮງຮຽນຊັ້ນນຳ ກຳລັງກຳນົດຄືນ “ຄວາມຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງຮັບຄວາມຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອ” ແບບເຂັ້ມງວດຂະໜາດນີ້, ມັນບອກທ່ານວ່າມັນມີທັງສອງຢ່າງ: ອຳນາດໃນການຕັ້ງລາຄາ (pricing power) ຂອງໂຮງຮຽນເຫຼົ່ານັ້ນ ແລະ ການສວມທັບທຳລາຍກຳລັງຊື້ (purchasing power) ຢ່າງກວ້າງຂວາງສຳລັບຄົນລາຍຮັບສູງ.
ສະທ້ອນເຖິງ 2 ຢ່າງ: (1) ຄ່າຮຽນໄດ້ເພີ່ມຈົນຂາດກຳຈາກການເຕີບໂຕຂອງລາຍຮັບປົກກະຕິໝົດແລ້ວ, ແລະ (2) ຊັ້ນກາງ-ຊັ້ນເທິງ (upper-middle class) ຖືກກົດດັນໜັກກວ່າທີ່ຄົນຫຼາຍເຂົ້າໃຈ. $500k ເບິ່ງເໝືອນວ່າຫຼາຍ ແຕ່ພໍ່ເຈົ້າຢູ່ໃນລັດທີ່ເສຍພາສີສູງ, ຈ່າຍຄ່າເຮືອນຜ່ອນ (mortgage), ເກັບເງິນໄວ້ສຳລັບການບຳນານ, ແລະ ຕ້ອງຈ່າຍ $60k/ປີຕໍ່ 1 ລູກ ສຳລັບໂຮງຮຽນ.
ບໍ່ໄດ້ບອກວ່າບໍ່ຄວນໃຫ້ຄອບຄົວເຫຼົ່ານີ້ຮູ້ສຶກເມດຕາ. ແຕ່ມັນຊີ້ບອກວ່າ “ພະຍາດຄ່າໃຊ້ແພງ” ໃນການສຶກສາ (ແລະ ສຸຂະພາບ, ແລະ ທີ່ຢູ່ອາໄສ) ກຳລັງເລືອ່ນຂຶ້ນໄປຕາມຂັ້ນຊີວິດດ້ວຍຄ່ອຍໆ ໃຫ້ເຖິງລະດັບທີ່ສູງຂຶ້ນ. ສິ່ງທີ່ເຄີຍຂຶ້ນເຖິງໄດ້ສຳລັບ 5-10% ອັນດັບທີ່ສູງ ບັດນີ້ກາຍເປັນວ່າຕ້ອງໃຊ້ລາຍຮັບສູງສຸດ 1-2% ເທົ່ານັ້ນ.
ຍັງເປັນການເຕືອນວ່າ ຕົວເລກ “ລາຍຮັບຕາມຕົວເລກທົ່ວໄປ” (nominal income) ກຳລັງບໍ່ຄ່ອຍເຊື່ອຖື ຖ້າບໍ່ມີບໍລິບົດເກີດຈາກສະຖານທີ່, ຂະໜາດຄອບຄົວ, ແລະ ໂຄງສ້າງຄ່າໃຊ້. “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Manhattan ກັບສາມລູກ ແມ່ນຄົນລະກໍລະນີກັບ “ໄດ້ $500k” ໃນ Austin ທີ່ມີລູກພຽງ 1 ຄົນ.
ສະຫຼຸບສຸດທ້າຍ: ຖ້າໂຮງຮຽນຊັ້ນນຳ ກຳລັງກຳນົດຄືນ “ຄວາມຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງຮັບຄວາມຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອ” ແບບເຂັ້ມງວດຂະໜາດນີ້, ມັນບອກທ່ານວ່າມັນມີທັງສອງຢ່າງ: ອຳນາດໃນການຕັ້ງລາຄາ (pricing power) ຂອງໂຮງຮຽນເຫຼົ່ານັ້ນ ແລະ ການສວມທັບທຳລາຍກຳລັງຊື້ (purchasing power) ຢ່າງກວ້າງຂວາງສຳລັບຄົນລາຍຮັບສູງ.
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ຢືນຢັນແລ້ວ
$KO taຳຮອດລະດັບສູງສຸດໃໝ່ຕະຫຼອດການ. ຂໍ້ສັງເກດ: ພິິເສດ Coke ບໍ່ແມ່ນຜູ້ທີ່ເດັ່ນໃນດ້ານການປຽບທຽບຜົນຕະຫຼອດ 15 ປີຜ່ານມາ, ແຕ່ຜົນຕອບແທນດ້ານຈຳນວນຈິງຍັງດີຫຼາຍ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນວ່າ "ພໍແລ້ວ" ທີ່ລວມກັນເພີ່ມຕາມເວລາ ສາມາດຄ່ອຍໆສ້າງຄວາມຮັ່ງມີຢ່າງໜ້າສົງສານໄດ້. ທ່ານບໍ່ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງເລືອກຊື່ທີ່ສະແດງສຸດໃນພອດຟໍ — ບາງຄັ້ງຂອງທຳມະດາ ແລະ ສະໝ່ຳສະເໝີ ແມ່ນຜູ້ຊະນະສໍາລັບຍາວໄປ.
$KO taຳຮອດລະດັບສູງສຸດໃໝ່ຕະຫຼອດການ. ຂໍ້ສັງເກດ: ພິິເສດ Coke ບໍ່ແມ່ນຜູ້ທີ່ເດັ່ນໃນດ້ານການປຽບທຽບຜົນຕະຫຼອດ 15 ປີຜ່ານມາ, ແຕ່ຜົນຕອບແທນດ້ານຈຳນວນຈິງຍັງດີຫຼາຍ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນວ່າ "ພໍແລ້ວ" ທີ່ລວມກັນເພີ່ມຕາມເວລາ ສາມາດຄ່ອຍໆສ້າງຄວາມຮັ່ງມີຢ່າງໜ້າສົງສານໄດ້. ທ່ານບໍ່ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງເລືອກຊື່ທີ່ສະແດງສຸດໃນພອດຟໍ — ບາງຄັ້ງຂອງທຳມະດາ ແລະ ສະໝ່ຳສະເໝີ ແມ່ນຜູ້ຊະນະສໍາລັບຍາວໄປ.
ຂໍ້ເຕືອນວ່າ "ພໍແລ້ວ" ທີ່ລວມກັນເພີ່ມຕາມເວລາ ສາມາດຄ່ອຍໆສ້າງຄວາມຮັ່ງມີຢ່າງໜ້າສົງສານໄດ້. ທ່ານບໍ່ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງເລືອກຊື່ທີ່ສະແດງສຸດໃນພອດຟໍ — ບາງຄັ້ງຂອງທຳມະດາ ແລະ ສະໝ່ຳສະເໝີ ແມ່ນຜູ້ຊະນະສໍາລັບຍາວໄປ.
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ເຂົ້າສູ່ລະບົບເພື່ອສຳຫຼວດເນື້ອຫາເພີ່ມເຕີມ
ເຂົ້າຮ່ວມກຸ່ມຜູ້ໃຊ້ຄຣິບໂຕທົ່ວໂລກໃນ Binance Square.
⚡️ ໄດ້ຮັບຂໍ້ມູນຫຼ້າສຸດ ແລະ ທີ່ມີປະໂຫຍດກ່ຽວກັບຄຣິບໂຕ.
💬 ໄດ້ຮັບຄວາມໄວ້ວາງໃຈຈາກຕະຫຼາດແລກປ່ຽນຄຣິບໂຕທີ່ໃຫຍ່ທີ່ສຸດໃນໂລກ.
👍 ຄົ້ນຫາຂໍ້ມູນເຊີງເລິກທີ່ແທ້ຈາກນັກສ້າງທີ່ໄດ້ຮັບການຢືນຢັນ.
ອີເມວ / ເບີໂທລະສັບ
ຫົວຂໍ້ທີ່ກໍາລັງນິຍົມ
USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected
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🚨 US AUG PPI: ຂຶ້ນໜ້ອຍກວ່າທີ່ຄາດ! ເປັນບວກສໍາລັບ Crypto? 🚀
PPI +0.4% MoM ຕາມຄາດ, ແຕ່ CORE PPI ພຽງ +0.2% ທຽບກັບ +0.3% ທີ່ຄາດ - ເຢັນລົງ!
ຄວາມໝາຍຂອງມັນ:
• ອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້ຂອງການຄ້າຂາຍສົ່ງເບົາກວ່າທີ່ກັງວົນ
• ໂອກາດຂອງການຂຶ້ນອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍຂອງ Fed ຕອນນີ້ 62% - ແຕ່ມີສັນຍານແນວ dovish ມາ
• ຄາດວ່າການປັບປຸງ Core PCE ຈະອອກມາຕໍ່າລົງ - ເປັນບວກ
• BTC ປົກກະຕິຈະເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນເມື່ອ PPI ອ່ອນລົງ
ກອງປະຊຸມ Fed 15-16 ກັນຍາ - ຕອນນີ້ຕະຫຼາດຄາດຈະຢຸດ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຂຶ້ນ?
ນີ້ແມ່ນແສງສີຂຽວສໍາລັບການແຂ່ງຂຶ້ນໃນ Q4 ບໍ?
#Bitcoin #PPI #Fed #CryptoNews #BTC#usaugustppiriseslessthanexpected
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