CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin derivatives positioning is rebuilding across major exchanges .
On Binance, Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change recovered to +6,380 BTC on August 15, after falling to -14,280 BTC on July 6.
That represents a swing of roughly 20,660 BTC from the July low. However, the current level remains well below Binance’s June 10 peak of approximately +17,000 BTC, suggesting leverage has returned without yet reaching the intensity seen earlier in the summer.
The recovery is also visible across other major exchanges.
Bybit reached +5,900 BTC on August 15, its highest reading since January 2026, while OKX recorded approximately +1,600 BTC. Gate.io followed with +3,300 BTC on August 16.
Together, the data points to a broader shift from July’s position contraction toward renewed leverage and position building across the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Open interest alone does not indicate whether the new exposure is predominantly long or short, making funding rates, order-flow data and liquidation positioning increasingly important for determining which side of the market is becoming more crowded.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin’s 30-day average Taker Buy Volume on Binance has fallen toward $3.3 billion, revisiting a zone previously observed around the late-2020 reset, the 2022 cycle bottom, and the 2023 consolidation.
What stands out is the divergence between price and participation. Bitcoin is trading near $63,500, yet aggressive market-buying activity has contracted to levels recorded when BTC traded at substantially lower prices. Beneath price, this points to fading speculative demand, reduced urgency among buyers, and a broader loss of market conviction.
Historically, similar contractions have appeared during periods of capitulation or accumulation and have often preceded a recovery in demand. However, low Taker Buy Volume is a condition, not a reversal signal. It shows that aggressive buyers have withdrawn, but it does not prove that selling pressure has been fully absorbed.
A more credible bottoming signal would require Bitcoin to stabilize while Taker Buy Volume begins to recover. Conversely, continued price weakness alongside persistently depressed volume would indicate an ongoing demand vacuum.
The current reading therefore points to an advanced reset in market participation, not a confirmed bottom: the market may be approaching seller exhaustion, yet buyers have not returned with enough force to establish control.
Written by MorenoDV_

XRP closed at $0.993 on August 16, testing the lower bound of its six-month range. Beneath this weak price action, the relationship between speculative positioning and spot liquidity is shifting.
A clear divergence is forming between derivatives growth and collapsing exchange flows. Open Interest (OI) climbed from 366M on August 4 to 461M on August 16 (+10% vs. the 30-day baseline), with the leverage ratio moving from 0.141 to 0.176. This suggests speculative traders are actively building positions.
However, this leverage buildup occurs in an increasingly illiquid spot market. Binance inflows and outflows plummeted 95–98% against their 90-day baselines, and deposit addresses fell 96%. With trading volume down 17% week-over-week, rising OI lacks the support of underlying capital rotation.
Funding rates remain slightly negative (-0.003 to -0.006) alongside this rising OI and falling price, suggesting a short bias. Yet, short liquidations are exceptionally low ($325 on Aug 16), indicating shorts remain untested, while long liquidations persist without cascading. Meanwhile, network utility stays resilient, with daily transactions near 2M (+43% vs. the quarterly baseline).
Taken together: speculative short positioning is increasing while spot exchange liquidity has nearly vanished. Historically, rising leverage in an illiquid spot market creates conditions susceptible to sudden volatility. This setup may provide the fuel for a mean-reversion squeeze if support holds, or accelerate a flush if the lack of spot bids persists.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s market structure is beginning to change. Three on-chain indicators suggest that BTC supply is returning to exchanges while spot demand remains too weak to absorb it.
First, Binance’s Whale Inflow Ratio has surged, briefly approaching 0.60. This means large transactions now account for a significant share of BTC flowing into Binance. Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging.
Second, Bitcoin exchange reserves have reversed higher. After falling for much of 2025 and early 2026, reserves bottomed near 2.67M BTC in May and have recovered to roughly 2.73M BTC. The long-running trend of BTC leaving exchanges may therefore be weakening.
Third, 90-day Spot Taker CVD has shifted from Buy Dominant to Neutral. Unlike April and May, aggressive spot buyers are no longer clearly dominating.
The key issue is not simply whether whales are selling. It is whether enough spot demand exists to absorb the BTC returning to exchanges. If whale inflows and reserves remain elevated while Spot Taker CVD turns Sell Dominant, downside pressure could intensify.
Written by XWIN Japan

The idea of catching the absolute bottom is wrong.
When a bear market persists, there comes a point where the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders starts to decline.
This reflects the process of high-cost holders realizing losses and transferring coins to stronger hands.
Accumulating gradually during this phase tends to be advantageous over the long term.
The window of opportunity lasts longer than most people expect. Yet this is precisely when the majority leave the market.
Written by Crypto Dan

XRP derivatives activity on Binance has shifted sharply in August, with open interest expanding even as both perpetual and spot order flow remain dominated by sellers.
Binance XRP open interest rose from roughly $181 million on August 3 to $232.7 million on August 17, an increase of about 28.6% in two weeks and the highest level recorded since June 2026.
The change becomes more significant when viewed through the 7-day open interest trend.
Binance’s XRP open interest change moved from approximately -$40 million on July 29 to +$38.9 million on August 17, signaling a transition from position contraction and unwinding in late July to renewed position building in August.
At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD fell to -$463.2 million, showing that aggressive sell-side execution continued while open interest expanded.
The combination of rising open interest and declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new bearish positions being added, rather than the move being driven only by existing longs closing.
Selling pressure is also visible outside the derivatives market. All-CEX Estimated Spot CVD declined from about +$153 million on August 3 to -$231.8 million by August 17, representing a swing of nearly $385 million toward net aggressive selling.
This combination suggests that bearish positioning has strengthened across multiple layers of the market.
As fresh short positions accumulate alongside rising open interest, the imbalance can place increasing downward pressure on perpetual funding rates and potentially push them into negative territory if short-side demand becomes sufficiently dominant.
While negative funding would not guarantee an immediate reversal, increasingly crowded short positioning could create the conditions for a short squeeze.
If XRP experiences a sudden rebound or buying pressure returns, leveraged short positions may be forced to close, potentially accelerating upside volatility as elevated open interest unwinds.
Written by Amr Taha

Binance BTC Taker Imbalance % data shows continued but slight selling pressure, with the indicator registering around -0.0127%. Executed sell orders totaled approximately $797.8 million, compared with around $777.8 million in buy orders, a difference of nearly $20 million in favor of sellers. However, the gap remains small relative to total trading volume, indicating that the current selling pressure is not strong enough to signal a widespread market exit.
Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, making the current reading important for assessing short-term momentum. Continued selling pressure could limit the price’s ability to recover to higher levels, particularly if it coincides with rising selling volumes in the coming sessions. Conversely, a narrowing gap between buy and sell volumes could help the price stabilize, even without the indicator turning clearly positive.
The data suggests that the market remains relatively balanced, although the current balance is slightly tilted toward sellers. Therefore, if this pressure persists without a significant increase, Bitcoin may remain within a volatile trading range. However, a widening gap in favor of sellers could increase the likelihood of another price correction, while a return of buyers with larger volumes could ease the pressure and support a renewed upward momentum.
Written by Arab Chain

UNI accumulation on Binance, Uniswap's native token, has never been this strong in five years as it is during the current dip.
This chart tracks the strength of that accumulation through the daily outflows generated by the largest transactions on Binance.
It was notably when UNI's price recently approached $3 that the average outflow from the ten largest daily transactions on Binance hit record highs.
For reference, the token had peaked above $43 in 2021; it now shows a drawdown of over 93%, currently trading around $3.
Over this period, we recorded a monthly average of 7,300 UNI leaving Binance daily via this top 10 of transactions, a five-year record.
That average remains elevated today, with 5,600 UNI accumulated daily by this same group of transactions.
Despite a tough environment for altcoins, some are still drawing attention, particularly those being accumulated most aggressively by whales.
Written by Darkfost

Two readings turned at the same time this week, and they do not usually turn together.
The first is momentum. The volatility-adjusted version, the Sharpe-like ratio, just crossed below its base line. This is the version I pay attention to because raw 30-day momentum will happily print a big number on a move that was mostly noise. Dividing by realized volatility asks a harder question: was the move worth the risk it took to get it? Right now the answer flipped to no. Earlier this year that same line was running above +2. It has been giving that back in steps ever since, and it is now on the wrong side of zero.
The second is the risk oscillator, measured against a composite of the S&P 500, gold, crude and the dollar. It has climbed back to the zero line. That level has mattered. Marked on the chart are the three previous times it arrived here, and each one was followed by a meaningful leg down in price rather than a bounce. Capital was rotating out of bitcoin and into the rest of that basket each time.
So one indicator says the trend is no longer paying, and the other says the macro bid is moving somewhere else. Individually, neither is a verdict. Together they describe a market with no support from either side of the book.
The honest limits. Three prior instances is a small sample, and small samples flatter whoever is reading them. The oscillator sitting at zero is a boundary, not a confirmation, and boundaries get rejected as often as they get broken. I have written here before about compression building in realized volatility, and compression is not directional. It stores energy without telling you which way it discharges.
What I will say is that the release, whenever it comes, is now arriving into worse conditions than it would have a month ago. Is that telling us the resolution is down? Maybe. I am watching both of these closely.
Written by RugaResearch

Today’s BTC on-chain data shows risk cooling, but not yet a clear shift to strong buy-side dominance.
Exchange Netflow dropped from +3,507 BTC on Aug 14 to just +29 BTC today, signaling a sharp reduction in immediate sell-side pressure.
Funding Rate fell from 0.0228 to 0.00465, while Open Interest eased from about $23.11B to $22.94B. Long-side overheating is clearly cooling, although leverage has not fully reset.
The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio remains slightly above its 30-day average, so liquidity conditions should still be watched alongside Netflow and derivatives positioning.
The market is moving toward neutral rather than giving a strong buy signal. Falling inflows and normalized funding are constructive, but renewed increases in Netflow, Funding, and OI would weaken this risk-reduction scenario.
Overall, sell pressure is easing and leverage is cooling. However, OI remains relatively elevated. The next confirmation would be Netflow turning negative while Funding stays controlled.
Tomorrow, I’ll watch for exchange outflows, stable Funding, and whether OI starts building again.
Written by CoinNiel

Next week could be a key test for Bitcoin as three macro events converge: U.S. TIC data, the July FOMC minutes, and Japan’s CPI.
TIC data will show whether foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities is weakening. Softer demand could push Treasury yields higher and tighten financial conditions, a headwind for Bitcoin.
The FOMC minutes may reveal how broad inflation concerns were. A hawkish tone could lift U.S. yields and the dollar, while stronger concern about growth or labor weakness could support risk assets.
Japan’s CPI may be the biggest volatility trigger. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen expectations for another BOJ rate hike, push the yen higher, and accelerate a reversal of yen-funded carry trades.
On-chain data adds another layer. The LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR ratio is near 0.96, suggesting no clear dominance of long-term-holder profit-taking. The key is whether a macro shock causes short-term holders to realize losses. If STH-SOPR falls below 1 while BTC exchange inflows rise, selling pressure could intensify.
The most bearish mix would be weaker Treasury demand, hawkish FOMC minutes, hot Japan CPI, and deteriorating short-term-holder behavior. Watch U.S. yields, USD/JPY, STH-SOPR, and exchange flows—not Bitcoin’s price alone.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitget Wallet recently joined the “JPYC × XWIN Early Morning Space” to discuss self-custody wallets and their role in Web3.
Space:
https://x.com/FumihiroArasawa/status/2088370315210768465?s=20
Ethereum active addresses remain high, with sharp increases again in 2026. Better wallet UX may be one contributor: social login, multichain support and integrated swaps are lowering barriers to onchain participation.
Self-custody wallets were once mainly tools for holding crypto while users controlled their own keys. Today, competition is shifting toward interfaces combining trading, DeFi, transfers, payments and asset management.
MetaMask remains strong in Ethereum and dApp access, while Trust Wallet and Phantom emphasize multichain usability. OKX Wallet and Bitget Wallet are expanding into swaps, DeFi and payments. Bitget Wallet has an advantage in combining multichain access with real-world payment functions.
Japan is also developing its own model. HashPort Wallet focuses on consumers and stablecoin payments, JPYC Gateway on corporate transfers and internal controls, and MyNumber Wallet on digital identity and payments.
The next wallet race will not be about storage alone. Wallets are evolving into “financial operating systems” connecting onchain assets with everyday finance.
Written by XWIN Japan

For most of the past two years, Bitcoin exchange reserves have followed a remarkably consistent pattern: lower highs, lower lows, and a persistent migration of BTC away from trading venues.
That structure is now beginning to change.
Exchange reserves have climbed back above their 200-day moving average, while the broader downtrend that has defined exchange balances since 2024 is showing its clearest signs of deterioration.
The signal is important because the 200-day SMA represents the underlying trend of the BTC supply sitting on exchanges. Reclaiming it does not mean investors are necessarily selling immediately, but it does tell us that the current exchange balance is rebuilding faster than its longer-term trend.
In other words, more BTC is becoming liquid and readily available to the market.
We briefly saw something similar earlier this year, when reserves moved marginally above the 200-day average for only a few days. The crossover was weak and short-lived, but it coincided with a local period of significant price weakness and a local bottom.
This time, the context deserves attention.
After months of frustrating and increasingly exhausting price action, the long-standing accumulation and withdrawal dynamic appears to be losing strength. Investors may be moving coins back onto exchanges not because they have already decided to sell, but because they want the option to do so.
Beneath price, the message is becoming harder to ignore: one of Bitcoin’s strongest structural supply trends is no longer moving in the same direction.
For much of the previous cycle, declining exchange reserves reduced immediately available supply and acted as a structural scarcity tailwind. If reserves continue rising above their 200-day trend, that tailwind could gradually become a source of distribution pressure instead.
What to Watch: The bearish read strengthens if reserves hold above the 200day SMA for several weeks alongside rising realized losses or whale-to-exchange flows.
Written by MorenoDV_

XRP's Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on CryptoQuant is currently reading near 0.8, signaling that aggressive sell orders are outweighing aggressive buys across exchanges. This comes as XRP price has slid to roughly $0.90, down sharply from its cycle high near $3.3.
Looking back over the past two-plus years of data, the ratio spent most of its time below 1.0 even during XRP's strongest rallies — a reminder that price can trend up without sustained taker-buy dominance. The clearer signal shows up on the downside: red spikes cluster tighter and hit harder during sell-offs, consistent with active distribution rather than a slow drift lower.
Since the taker ratio is coincident rather than predictive, the current 0.8 print confirms existing sell-side pressure rather than forecasting a reversal. Pairing it with funding rates and open interest gives a fuller read on positioning before drawing conclusions.
Bottom line: sellers are currently dominant — but as always, you only lose if you sell.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

Since the approval of spot ETFs in January 2024, CPI has been a leading indicator for Bitcoin's trend. It's the locomotive pulling the market — and for 102 days now, that locomotive has had no coal. It can't move forward.
CPI turned negative on May 5, 2026, and Bitcoin has since dropped roughly 30% from its last local high of 82K.
Looking at current data, CPI sits at -0.10 — deep in negative territory. Until this index crosses back above zero, a high-momentum uptrend in BTC is unlikely.
Written by burakkesmeci

XRP trades near $0.90, down substantially from its Q1 2025 high above $3. Whale-to-exchange flow on Binance shows a structural break that began before the decline and has not resolved.
What the chart shows
From 2017 through late 2024, whale deposits to Binance were consistently muted — a low, stable baseline with only brief episodes of elevated activity around March 2020 and early 2021.
That regime ended in late 2024. Coinciding with the move from roughly $0.50 to above $2.50, deposit spikes reached levels an order of magnitude above anything in the prior seven years. Critically, they did not subside when price peaked. Large prints have continued throughout 2025 and into 2026 as price declined.
Why it matters
Exchange inflow from large holders is a supply signal. Coins moving from private wallets to a trading venue are being positioned for sale — not definitively sold, but made available.
The timing is the informative part. Deposits accelerating into strength is standard distribution behaviour: size is best offloaded when liquidity is deepest. What distinguishes this dataset is that the pattern persisted through the drawdown rather than stopping once the exit window closed.
Two readings
The straightforward interpretation is continued distribution — large holders reducing exposure across a wide price range rather than at a single level.
The alternative deserves weight: XRP's holder base includes entities whose transfers may reflect operational activity rather than directional intent. Exchange-to-exchange routing and custody restructuring can produce similar prints. This metric alone cannot separate the two.
What this is not
Persistent inflow is not a price forecast. It describes available supply, not demand - and price is the intersection of both.
The more useful question is what happens when these prints normalise. A return to the pre-2024 baseline would signal that distribution has run its course. That has not happened yet.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

Bitcoin has retraced substantially from its cycle high, now trading near $63K. A decline of this size would historically produce a visible cluster of forced selling. Long liquidations across all exchanges show the opposite.
What the chart shows
Three regimes stand out since 2019:
March 2020 - the largest liquidation print in the dataset, compressed into hours
2021 - persistent large prints throughout the bull market, with leverage structurally elevated
2025–2026 - the current drawdown, with prints materially smaller despite a comparable percentage decline
Why it matters
The distinction is between forced and voluntary selling.
A liquidation cascade is mechanical. Positions close because margin demands it, not because holders formed a view. These moves overshoot and mean-revert quickly, since selling pressure exhausts the moment leverage clears.
Sustained decline with muted liquidations implies deliberate exposure reduction from spot or lightly-leveraged positions. Slower, and it does not exhaust itself in a single flush.
Reading it
Derivatives leverage appears structurally lower than in 2021 - the market deleveraged through the drawdown rather than being deleveraged by it.
Notably, the capitulation signature is absent. Major cycle lows have historically coincided with at least one outsized print. That has not yet appeared here.
What this is not
Low liquidations are not a directional signal. They describe how price moved, not where it goes next. If anything, the absence of a leverage flush argues against calling a bottom on this metric alone - cascades clear positioning quickly, while orderly distribution can persist for months.
Watch for that final outsized print. It is more informative than the current low readings.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

There's an interesting development currently taking place regarding Binance's whales on XRP.
Their inflows, averaged here over 3 months to get a clean read on the trend, just hit their lowest level since 2021. Today, Binance whales reduced their XRP inflows to the platform, now reaching $61 million.
For comparison, these stood at $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October. Inflows are 6 to 8 times lower today, and this is happening while XRP puts up a tough fight to hold its $1 level.
Whales that seemed to favor a platform like Binance, one that allows them to handle such volumes.
Still, netflows remain positive at around +$18.8 million, a sign that inflows are still dominant for now.
This is a pattern we're seeing across the entire market where inflows and volumes are declining, pointing to a form of sell-side exhaustion, while demand hasn't yet picked up the slack.
Even though this is a positive development for XRP, it still seems too early to declare victory and expect XRP to reach new highs.
Written by Darkfost

1) Supply in Loss.
2) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).
3) Fund Holdings.
4) Renko Charting.
5) SMA50.
6) Fourth Halving Anchored VWAP with bands (2.1 standard deviation).
7) ATH AVWAP.
8) Second Lower High AVWAP.
9) Price.
10) Open Interest.
Written by Facundo Fama

OMG closed at $0.045 on August 13, holding a narrow $0.043–$0.047 band through the last two weeks while sitting roughly 11% below its three-month average. Price alone says little; the more informative signal is in how on-chain activity is distributing.
Network participation continues to thin. Transaction count averaged 67 per day, down about 22% versus the quarterly baseline and 42% versus the prior month, with transfer counts down 31% and sender addresses down 19%. Yet median tokens transferred rose to 7,670 — up 247% versus the three-month baseline and 763% week over week. Fewer participants moving larger amounts per transaction suggests activity may be concentrating among a smaller set of holders rather than broadening.
Exchange positioning shifted abruptly, but from an exceptionally low base. On August 11 a single deposit address and one transaction delivered 191,348 OMG to Binance, lifting reserve from 22,672 to 214,020 tokens (+285% versus baseline). Context matters: in dollar terms that reserve is roughly $9.6K, so these percentage moves are largely base effects rather than evidence of meaningful supply pressure. Recorded outflows stayed at zero across the window, which may indicate an absence of withdrawal demand rather than active on-exchange accumulation.
Reported volume rose 314% WoW and 117% MoM, clustered on August 10–11 alongside the deposit. Worth flagging, but not over-reading: on a venue this thin, one participant can shape both series at once.
Taken together, OMG looks like a low-liquidity asset where declining breadth coexists with rising per-transaction size, and where exchange metrics respond sharply to individual actors. Historically such conditions have preceded extended low-volatility ranging punctuated by outsized single-day moves rather than sustained trend. Whether transfer counts recover alongside transfer size, or reserve begins to see two-way flow, would offer the clearer confirmation.
Written by CryptoOnchain