CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data on Ethereum reserves on Binance shows a notable decline in the amount of ETH held on the exchange, with reserves falling to around 3.7 million ETH, marking the lowest level since 2024. This development reflects an important shift in the behavior of Ethereum holders and provides insight into deeper changes in supply and demand dynamics.

Exchange reserves are one of the key indicators of available spot-market supply. When reserves decline, it usually means that a growing portion of coins is being withdrawn to private wallets or deployed into staking, lending, or DeFi protocols, reducing the amount readily available for selling. Historically, such periods have often been associated with easing sell pressure and a gradual shift toward long-term holding behavior.

Notably, this drop in Binance’s ETH reserves comes as Ethereum trades near the $2,080 level, a price zone that suggests relative stabilization after months of heightened volatility. The combination of falling reserves and relatively stable prices may point to a phase of quiet accumulation, where investors are removing their assets from exchanges in preparation for longer-term storage rather than short-term trading.

From a behavioral standpoint, declining ETH balances on major exchanges reflect rising long-term confidence in the Ethereum network and its future outlook, especially given ongoing developments across decentralized finance, scaling solutions, and on-chain applications. Lower exchange reserves also reduce the likelihood of sudden large-scale sell-offs triggered by heavy inflows to trading platforms

Written by Arab Chain

The chart shows that Binance has consistently held a dominant 65-80% market share, meaning the capital that truly moves prices in both spot and derivatives markets is concentrated on Binance. While volume on other exchanges has increased over time, this growth supports the market rather than reshaping it.

In 2023, Binance’s dominance was especially clear, with other exchanges mainly serving retail investors and regional platforms. This resulted in cleaner price action and stronger trends. In 2024, capital began to disperse, but Binance did not lose control its leadership remained intact, particularly in derivatives trading.

During 2025–2026, other exchanges experienced occasional volume spikes, but these failed to form sustainable trends. In contrast, Binance consistently attracted liquidity during every major market move. Although the market attempts to become multi-centered, capital flows back to Binance during periods of stress or uncertainty.

High Binance dominance reflects higher leverage and aggressive positioning, while growth on other exchanges is more spot driven and risk-averse. Investors take risk on Binance and reduce risk elsewhere, which is why major volatility events originate from Binance, while weaker or false rallies are often seen when other exchanges dominate.

Overall, rising Binance dominance leads to stronger trends and higher volatility. In bear markets and crises, liquidity returns to Binance, confirming that real capital institutions and whales continues to concentrate in one place.

Written by PelinayPA

This decline led whales to buy massive amounts of $BTC.

They then withdrew that $BTC to their accumulator addresses.

On February 6th, 66.94k $BTC inflowed to accumulator addresses. This was the largest inflow amount in this cycle.

Written by CW8900

The past few days have been particularly tough for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. On February 6, BTC fell back below the $60,000 level, a threshold that had not been revisited since October 2024. At the same time, the market recorded a sharp correction, with a drawdown exceeding 50% from the last all time high. This abrupt return to lower price levels reignited investor anxiety.

The acceleration of this correction created a clear fear driven dynamic. Many participants chose to move their BTC onto exchanges, fueling an already intense wave of liquidations. Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders were the first to react emotionally. On Binance, that concentrates a large share of the flows, BTC inflows coming from these STHs (7d-sum) exceeded 100,000 BTC on February 6 alone and outpacing April 2025 correction.

Such volumes point to a form of capitulation and highlight the major role this group of investors played in the selling pressure at the time.

Between February 4 and February 6, nearly 241,000 BTC were sent to various exchanges. When flows of that magnitude converge on trading platforms, it is hard to interpret them as anything other than a dominant intent to sell. This wave of massive deposits further intensified an already elevated level of market volatility.

A similar pattern was visible on Coinbase Advanced, a platform widely used by institutions, active traders, and professional desks. On that same day, February 6, BTC inflows reached roughly 27,000 BTC, marking a clear spike in activity. This suggests that the nervousness was not limited to retail investors but also spread to more sophisticated market participants.

This episode illustrates how a rapid correction phase can amplify panic driven behavior and trigger capitulation events. These capitulation moves have pushed BTC into an extreme oversold zone that the market will now need time to absorb and digest.

Written by Darkfost

Concerns have spread in parts of the market that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could fail in the current cycle. Bitcoin is presently in a corrective rebound within a broader bearish phase, where downside risk remains conditionally dominant. In such environments, corporate risk tied to price volatility is often overstated.

However, a review of public financial disclosures and CryptoQuant on-chain data suggests that linking short-term BTC price declines directly to an imminent financial crisis at Strategy requires caution. The most important on-chain observation is that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have not declined. As shown by the “Amount Held” chart, BTC holdings have steadily increased since 2020, reaching roughly 670,000 BTC, with no evidence of forced selling or liquidity-driven outflows even during sharp drawdowns.

The “Total Investment vs Current Value (TotalPaid_WorthCurrently)” chart further clarifies this structure. While the market value of holdings fluctuates significantly with BTC price, cumulative investment continues to rise in a stepwise manner. This indicates that Strategy has not reduced exposure in response to short-term losses, reinforcing that its strategy is built on long-term capital structure rather than near-term liquidity management.

From a balance sheet perspective, BTC holdings are estimated at $49–59B against liabilities of roughly $8.2B, providing a substantial asset buffer. With about $2.25B in cash and most debt maturities concentrated after 2027–2028, near-term repayment pressure appears limited. Notably, Strategy already endured the 2021–2022 bear market, when BTC traded well below its average cost for over a year without triggering large on-chain outflows.

Risks remain if prolonged price weakness coincides with deteriorating capital market conditions. Still, at present, bankruptcy fears appear more sentiment-driven than structurally supported, unless on-chain holdings or financial conditions materially change.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

📰 Daily Market Update:

The funding rate is one of the most important “sentiment indicators” in crypto derivatives.

📊 [ETH] Funding Rate by Exchange

Funding rates are periodic fees exchanged between traders in perpetual futures markets to keep contract prices close to the spot market.

📈 Positive funding (+)

Occurs when futures prices trade above spot prices.

Long positions pay shorts.

This reflects market optimism and long dominance.

📉 Negative funding (–)

Occurs when futures prices trade below spot prices.

Shorts pay longs.

This reflects fear or bearish positioning.

⚠️ When funding reaches extreme levels, either positive or negative, it becomes fuel for liquidations.

If everyone is positioned in one direction, even a small move against the crowd can trigger forced closures and sharp price reactions.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 BitMEX funding rate surged to an extreme positive level of 0.049%, a level not seen since October.

📈 This value exceeded the late-October peak near 0.03%, marking a clear escalation in leverage on the long side.

🔎 Looking specifically at Binance, the largest derivatives venue by volume:

📈ETH funding moved from deep negative cooling levels of –0.025% on February 5

📈 Back toward neutral territory at the time of writing.

📌 This transition suggests a clear shift in derivatives positioning, where long positions are now dominating new open interest, replacing short exposure that previously controlled the market.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, strongly positive funding driven by leverage expansion has not favored sustained upside, but instead increased the probability of sharp corrective moves.

Written by Amr Taha

The Mayer Multiple just dropped to 0.6 — meaning Bitcoin is trading at 60% of its 200-day moving average. This level of statistical deviation from trend has only occurred during severe capitulation phases.

📊 What This Measures

The Mayer Multiple is deceptively simple: current price divided by 200-day moving average. But what it captures is powerful — the degree to which price has deviated from its long-term trend.

A reading of 1.0 means price equals the 200-day MA. Above 1.0 means premium to trend. Below 1.0 means discount.

Key thresholds:

Above 2.4: Historically overbought (bubble territory)

1.0-1.5: Normal bull market range

0.8-1.0: Discount to trend (accumulation zone)

Below 0.8: Statistically oversold (capitulation)

Current reading: 0.6 — price is 40% below its long-term trend. This isn't a small dip. This is statistical extreme.

🔍 Historical Precedent

Mayer Multiple below 0.7 has occurred only during major capitulation events:

→ Dec 2018 (0.5-0.6): Bear market bottom at $3,200. 12-month outcome: +340%

→ Mar 2020 (0.5): COVID crash. 12-month outcome: +1,100%

→ Nov 2022 (0.5-0.6): FTX collapse bottom. 12-month outcome: +170%

→ Now (0.6): Current reading

Every prior instance of Mayer Multiple this low marked a clear capitulation.

📈 Why This Matters

When price deviates 40% below its 200-day average, the market is pricing in worst-case scenarios that historically don't materialize for extended periods.

The Mayer Multiple doesn't predict exact bottoms. It identifies statistical extremes where risk/reward shifts meaningfully.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

→ Precise timing (bottoms can take 2-8 weeks to form)

→ No further downside (can easily overshoot to 0.5 in panic)

→ Immediate reversal (consolidation often follows)

Current setup: 40% discount to trend, matching only the most severe historical capitulation phases.

Written by RugaResearch

The Sharpe ratio has just entered a particularly interesting zone, one that has historically aligned with the final phases of bear markets.

This is not a signal that the bear market is over, but rather that we are approaching a point where the risk to reward profile is becoming extreme.

In practical terms, the risk associated with investing in BTC remains high relative to the returns recently observed.

The ratio is still deteriorating, showing that BTC’s performance is not yet attractive compared to the risk being taken.

But this type of dynamic is precisely what tends to appear near market turning zones. We are gradually approaching an area where this trend has historically reversed.

The Sharpe ratio should almost be used in a contrarian way. It is a metric that reflects the consequences of market evolution, not a cause. In other words, it highlights that recent returns on BTC have been poor and continue to be so.

As a result, many investors are under water or under pressure, which often corresponds to phases where long term opportunities begin to emerge.

From here, two main approaches can be considered.

The first is to start building exposure gradually, step by step, as the ratio moves closer to zones historically associated with lower risk.

The second is to wait for the Sharpe ratio to clearly improve before increasing exposure.

It is important to stay realistic about timing.

This phase may last several more months, and BTC could continue correcting before a true reversal takes place. The signal is structurally constructive, but it needs time to develop.

There is no rush.

Written by Darkfost

The $BTC realized cap of new whales has increased even further amid the decline.

The Realized Cap continues to increase despite the price decline means that new whales are holding $BTC rather than selling.

Actually, whales have taken advantage of the decline to increase their accumulation.

Written by CW8900

The crypto bloodbath just took a wild turn! After a brutal crash that sent Bitcoin screaming to 16-month lows, the markets are flashing a massive "Buy" signal with the fear and greed index at an extremely fearful stage, and Solana (SOL) is leading the charge with over 25% gains in the past 24 hours, where it took support from a January 2024-based demand area.

Investors who were waiting for a sign to stop the bleeding may have found it. Here’s why SOL is the one to watch right now:

The Great Bounce: From $67 to $85!

Solana didn't just recover; it spiked from a key demand area. SOL skyrocketed from a low of $67.69 to approximately $85. This wasn't just a fluke, as it was a coordinated move fueled by:

The BTC Ripple Effect: Bitcoin’s climb back to $70,000 ignited the entire altcoin market.

Macro Mania: The Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through 50,000 for the first time ever, sparking a "risk-on" frenzy that’s pumping tech and crypto alike.

The "Cooling" Bubble Map: Oversold & Ready to Rip?

The data doesn't lie. Solana’s Spot and Futures volume bubble maps are currently showing a "Cooling" trend. In trader speak? The market is massively oversold and has likely found its floor. We are seeing classic price exhaustion, and smart money is already moving in to capitalize.

Liquidity is Flooding Back

With a record-breaking $6.371 billion in USDT flowing onto exchanges on February 6th, it was the largest inflow of Q1 2026. This massive wall of liquidity is providing the fuel SOL and other assets need to maintain their price floors, and continued demand could spark an epic rebound in SOL and other assets.

Written by TopNotchYJ

The crypto market has faced severe turbulence over the past week, with Bitcoin plunging from $85K to $68K and Ethereum dropping from $3K to the $2K region. While retail sentiment reflects extreme fear, on-chain data reveals a massive contrarian move by smart money.

Data Analysis

The Binance 7-Day Asset Netflow chart highlights a striking divergence. Instead of panic-driven deposits typically seen during sharp sell-offs, Binance has experienced historic withdrawals:

Bitcoin (BTC): Net outflow of approximately $9 billion

Ethereum (ETH): Net outflow exceeding $2.7 billion

On-Chain Interpretation

Normally, strong price corrections trigger heavy exchange inflows as investors rush to sell. However, more than $11.7B in BTC and ETH leaving the world’s largest exchange during a market dump signals aggressive buy-the-dip behavior.

This strongly suggests that institutions and whales are absorbing panic selling liquidity and moving assets off-exchange into long-term cold storage.

Conclusion

This event marks a major transfer of wealth from weak hands to strong hands. The sharp reduction in exchange reserves lowers immediate sell pressure, pointing to a potential supply shock and the formation of a strong structural floor for the next bullish leg.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum is currently experiencing one of the most significant divergences in its history. While the price of ETH has faced heavy selling pressure—falling from the $3,000 level down into the $1,800–$2,000 range—on-chain activity has not only remained resilient but has surged to unprecedented levels.

On-Chain Data Analysis

According to the attached chart, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Active Addresses has risen sharply, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of 825,000 on February 3. This level exceeds the peaks observed during both the 2021 bull market and the 2018 market cycle, marking the highest sustained daily participation in Ethereum’s history.

Interpretation: Capitulation or Adoption?

This dramatic rise in network activity during a sharp price decline can be interpreted in two primary ways:

Panic and Capitulation:

A spike in active addresses during a drawdown often signals capitulation. This likely reflects large-scale movement of dormant coins and heightened retail activity, particularly transfers to exchanges for selling. Such behavior is typical during a “flush-out” phase, where weaker hands exit the market.

Fundamental Adoption and Utility:

Alternatively, reaching an ATH in active addresses may indicate that Ethereum’s underlying utility has never been stronger. Unlike traditional bear markets—where on-chain activity typically contracts—the Ethereum network is currently processing record levels of user interaction despite the significant decline in price.

Conclusion

The combination of an all-time high in active addresses (825,000) and a roughly 40% price correction points to a period of extreme volatility. Historically, elevated network activity near local price lows has often preceded turning points, as asset ownership shifts from panic-driven sellers to long-term holders. In this context, the $1,800 support level becomes a critical area to monitor moving forward.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Funding rate data on the XRP pair on Binance shows a notable negative shift in trader sentiment, as the funding rate has fallen to around -0.028, marking its lowest level since last April. This reflects the growing dominance of short positions over long positions in the derivatives market, signaling a clear move toward defensive positioning and hedging against further downside.

A funding rate this deeply negative is typically seen as a sign that traders are paying a premium to hold short positions, highlighting widespread pessimism about short-term price performance. This development comes as XRP trades near the $1.46 level after a gradual decline over recent weeks, reinforcing the view that the market is experiencing accumulated selling pressure.

Historically, funding rates reaching extreme negative levels often coincide with advanced stages of downtrends, when a large portion of traders are already positioned short. In some cases, such conditions have paved the way for temporary price rebounds driven by short-covering or a return of speculative demand, even if the broader trend remains weak.

From a behavioral perspective, this funding rate level reflects heightened caution and reduced risk appetite, particularly in the derivatives market. It also suggests that any sudden improvement in sentiment or positive news could trigger faster-than-expected price movements.

Written by Arab Chain

Despite movements that may have distorted the MVRV, such as large UTXO consolidations including more than 800000 BTC by Coinbase, I still find it interesting to analyze the signal it is sending today.

This chart is not simply showing the raw MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap, calculated as price multiplied by supply, with its realized value, which reflects the realized price in the market, meaning the price of each BTC when it last moved.

-💡Instead, this approach identifies where the current MVRV stands relative to its evolution within the present cycle. In other words, it does not rely only on the MVRV itself, a metric that is affected by Bitcoin’s structural evolution and its cycles.

It adds a probabilistic dimension and, more importantly, places the MVRV back into the current market context, which makes it meaningful again. -

Today, the MVRV sits in the 0 to 10 % percentile.

That means we are reaching an extremely low level for this cycle, to the point that the MVRV has been higher than this value more than 90% of the time during the cycle.

This is a strong signal that the market has gone through an extreme period of stress and that the current zone is clearly attractive for those looking to position themselves intelligently.

Historically, these areas have consistently preceded bullish recoveries.

On the other hand, when the MVRV reaches the 90% zone, Bitcoin tends to enter an overheated phase. These periods have always been followed by corrections.

These patterns repeat throughout the lifecycle of an asset like Bitcoin.

One day everyone wants it, the next day no one does.

If you want to outperform, follow the data rather than the crowd.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s latest price surge has raised speculation about a possible bottom or trend reversal. However, the key question is not the size of the move, but whether it reflects a structural shift in demand.

In Bitcoin markets, a “bounce” typically refers to a temporary rebound within a broader downtrend. Such moves are often driven by short-covering, position adjustments, and sentiment reversals, rather than fresh spot demand. They tend to occur after periods of heightened fear, when selling pressure briefly eases.

The on-chain indicator SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) provides important context. SOPR shows whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When SOPR falls below 1, it indicates that market participants are selling at a loss, prioritizing risk reduction over profitability.

Historically, SOPR remaining below 1 has not marked market bottoms. Instead, it has appeared during early to mid bear-market phases, often alongside rebounds that fail to sustain. True bottoms have formed only after prolonged SOPR weakness, repeated failed recoveries above 1, and broad loss realization.

Current data fits this pattern. While price has rebounded, SOPR has yet to recover and hold above 1, and evidence of sustained spot-driven inflows remains limited. As such, today’s move is better viewed as a reflexive bounce within an adjustment phase, not confirmation of a durable uptrend.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin is currently facing intense selling pressure, with the price dropping to the $64.6K region. A critical look at the market sentiment on Binance reveals a disturbing trend in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025.

The Taker Buy Ratio is a key indicator of market sentiment; values below 1 indicate that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes. A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance.

This capitulation in the ratio correlates with the sharp price correction observed recently. For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears.

Written by CryptoOnchain

After breaking the support line of the downtrend channel and testing the critical $60K region, Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive test at this Sunday's weekly close, 02/08/2026. A close within the channel's boundaries would strengthen the chances of a technical recovery. From a more optimistic perspective, a definitive break of the channel's resistance would validate a trend change, while a close below the channel's support reinforces the ongoing capitulation sentiment. The rally ignited on Thursday night, with a 17% gain, partially reversed the intense wave of selling that caused Bitcoin to suffer a 50% correction since its ATH in October. Bitcoin is now trading near its critical resistance level of $70K.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain and institutional flow data is starting to paint a more cautious picture for Bitcoin price action.

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

The chart tracks the daily net value (USD) of Bitcoin flows into spot BTC ETFs.

📈 Positive netflows → actual BTC buying → bullish price pressure

📉 Negative netflows → BTC selling → bearish pressure

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart highlights a second major negative outflow in February from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

📅 On February 5, IBIT recorded a massive net outflow exceeding $7.7 billion, the largest in this period.

📉 The first negative outflow occurred on February 2, with more than $4.7 billion leaving the fund.

📉 In second place, Grayscale (GBTC) also recorded a negative outflow of over $2.1 billion.

📊 BTC: UTXO Exchange Inflow SMA 7d

The chart breaks down Bitcoin inflows to exchanges based on wallet size categories, offering insight into which group is preparing to sell.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 A sharp spike in the light blue area representing Dolphin / Shark wallets.

📈 On February 5, inflows surged to 20,800 BTC.

📅 In our previous update, we already noted that February 4 saw inflows spike to 14,900 BTC.

📅 This is the first time inflows exceeded 20,800 BTC since October, when BTC was trading above $122,000.

📊 [Binance] Multi-Asset Netflow - $Value

The chart shows the net USD value flows of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC moving in and out of Binance, the biggest spot exchange by trading volume.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On February 5, Bitcoin net inflows on Binance jumped to $727M.

📅 We have not seen similar BTC inflow levels since mid-November.

📉 At the same time, USDT recorded consecutive negative netflows, with the latest outflow reaching approximately –$450M.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, positive BTC alongside negative stablecoin flows are often interpreted as risk-off behavior, where market participants reduce crypto exposure.

Written by Amr Taha

The Daily Realized P/L Ratio just dropped into the "Low" zone with Panic Selling markers active. This isn't just "price went down" — this is the market's economic fingerprint showing forced capitulation.

📊 What This Measures

The P/L Ratio captures economic behavior price alone cannot: when coins move on-chain, are holders realizing profit or loss? Low readings mean loss-realizers dominate — margin calls, forced liquidations, emotional exits.

The Panic Selling layer confirms velocity: not gradual selling, but sudden forced exits matching historical capitulation patterns.

The distinction matters: organic selling can persist. Forced selling exhausts itself.

🔍 Historical Precedent

This exact setup — P/L Ratio Low + Panic Selling active — has occurred 4 times since 2016:

→ Dec 2018 ($3,200): 12-month outcome +340%

→ Mar 2020 ($5,000): 12-month outcome +1,100%

→ Jun 2022 ($22,000): NOT final bottom — fell 30% more before recovery

→ Nov 2022 ($16,000): 12-month outcome +170%

Three of four marked actionable bottoms within weeks. One marked the beginning of capitulation, not the end.

📈 The Pattern

When realized losses overwhelm profits and panic selling accelerates, we're witnessing forced capitulation — a condition that historically exhausts itself rather than persists.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

Precise timing (signal can lead bottom by 0-16 weeks), magnitude of further downside, or duration. This measures exhaustion of sellers, not absence of risk.

Current setup suggests forced selling is occurring. History suggests forced selling exhausts itself.

Written by RugaResearch

The Realized Price by Balance Cohorts metric reveals a clean breach across all major holder groups, with the 100k+ ETH cohort's realized price (~$2,074) acting as the most notable victim of this sell-off.

The current price of $1,823 now sits below the cost basis of every significant cohort tracked.

This is particularly striking for the largest holders (100k+ ETH), whose realized price has historically served dual roles: acting as formidable resistance during downtrends and reliable support during recoveries, as evidenced in early 2019, mid-2020, and late 2022.

When ETH decisively breaks through the whale cohort's realized price, two paths typically emerge rapidly: either a violent snap-back rally as the level flips to support (2020, 2022), or further capitulation into multi-year lows (2018-2019).

The middle ground rarely persists.

What makes this moment particularly noteworthy is the clean penetration across all cohorts simultaneously. The smaller holders (1k-10k, 100-1k, 10k-100k ETH) are all showing realized prices between $2,534-$2,675, creating a significant overhead resistance zone should price attempt recovery.

Risk Considerations:

- Critical levels: Watch whether $2,074 (100k+ cohort RP) can flip back to support in the coming weeks. A reclaim would mirror historical recovery patterns. Failure to recapture this level within 30-45 days historically precedes extended drawdowns.

- Downside scenario: A sustained break below $1,800 with no immediate reclaim of whale RP opens the door to $1,600-$1,300

The market is dominated by fear, but these inflection points separate reactive traders from strategic investors. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

Written by MorenoDV_