CoinsProbe

Key Highlights
$JASMY broke out of a multi-month falling wedge near $0.0049 and has since retested the breakout trendline around $0.00467.A move above the recent high near $0.00575 would confirm successful retest completion and strengthen the bullish case.Chart-measured target sits near $0.0096, still representing roughly +92% upside from the current $0.00501 area.
**JasmyCoin **is trading at $0.005014 — up 5.56% in the past 24 hours, down 3.43% over the past 7 days, and up 26.46% over the past 30 days — with a market capitalization of approximately $247.94 million.
Jasmycoin (JASMY) Price on 10 Oct 2026 | Source: Coinmarketcap
The Setup — Falling Wedge Breakout and Retest
The daily chart shows $JASMY compressing inside a multi-month falling wedge that began after the early-2026 high near $0.00963. Price broke out of the upper boundary of that wedge near $0.0049. It has since pulled back to retest the same trendline around $0.00467, a classic post-breakout behavior that tests whether former resistance has flipped to support.
As of the latest close near $0.00501, the retest has held so far. The next confirmation level is a reclaim and close above the recent swing high around $0.00575. That move would signal the retest phase is complete and open the door to the measured target.
JASMY Daily Chart Showing Falling Wedge Breakout – Coinsprobe | Source: Tradingview
Why the Retest Matters
Falling wedge breakouts often fail when price cannot hold the upper trendline after the initial push. A successful retest near $0.00467 keeps the structure intact. Failure to hold that level would negate the breakout and return price to the prior downtrend channel.
The chart also labels a deeper historical low near $0.00345 from the August 2026 area, which remains well below the current retest zone. As long as the breakout trendline holds, the path of least resistance is higher.
Measured Target and Levels
The projected target from the wedge breakout measures near $0.0096. From the current price of approximately $0.00501, that represents roughly +92% upside. Intermediate resistance sits around the $0.00575 recent high; clearing it is the trigger that would confirm retest completion and improve the probability of the larger move.
Key levels:
Support / invalidation: Breakout trendline near $0.00467 (sustained close below invalidates)Confirmation: Close above recent high ~$0.00575Target: ~$0.0096 (+92% from current levels)
Bullish Scenario
Price holds the $0.00467 retest zone, reclaims $0.00575, and extends toward the measured target near $0.0096. Volume expansion on the break above $0.00575 would further support the move.
Bearish Scenario
A daily close back below the breakout trendline support near $0.00467 invalidates the breakout. That would reopen downside toward the prior wedge lows and the August area near $0.00345.
Broader Context
$JASMY continues to function as the gas token on JasmyChain, the Ethereum-compatible Arbitrum Orbit Layer 2 that completed its mainnet migration earlier in 2026. Recent infrastructure updates included an RPC migration in late September. At the same time, Japanese exchanges BITPOINT and SBI VC Trade are scheduled to delist the token by 28 October as part of a broader service consolidation, creating near-term liquidity friction for holders on those platforms.
The technical setup stands independent of those developments. The chart’s message is binary: hold the retest and clear $0.00575 for the $0.0096 target, or lose the breakout trendline and the structure fails.
The level to watch is not a single intraday print. It is whether $JASMY can close above the recent high near $0.00575 while keeping the $0.00467 breakout trendline intact. Until that confirmation arrives, the retest remains in progress and the +92% measured target stays on the table.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) says getting bearish on $PENGU is a big mistake after the token held mid-range support following a rejection from the channel top.$PENGU is holding near $0.0082 while potentially forming a higher low; two support trendlines remain the key conditions for the bullish structure.As long as those supports hold, Martinez sees a path back toward the channel top at $0.0110.A breakout above $0.0110 would open his next watched level at $0.0210.
Bitcoin is trading near $82,700 while Solana ecosystem meme coin $PENGU sits at roughly $0.0082 after pulling back from a recent test of the $0.0110 channel top. Ali Martinez argues the pullback is not a reason to turn bearish.
The Setup — Channel Rejection and Mid-Range Hold
On 10 October 2026, Martinez posted: “PENGU: GETTING BEARISH IS A BIG MISTAKE.”
He noted that after $PENGU was rejected from the top of the channel, the token is now holding the mid-range support while potentially forming a higher low. The chart he shared shows an ascending trendline connecting higher lows through October, with the current price zone acting as a consolidation area rather than a breakdown.
PENGU Daily Chart | Source: @alicharts (X)
The two levels he is watching are the horizontal mid-range support near $0.0082 and the rising trendline. As long as both continue to hold, he says the bullish structure remains intact.
Why the Higher Low Matters
A higher low forms when buyers step in at a price above the previous swing low. In this case, the October structure shows progressive demand absorbing supply at improving levels. That pattern is consistent with a constructive pullback inside an ongoing channel rather than a trend reversal.
Martinez’s earlier posts on $PENGU have framed the token as a potential Solana ecosystem meme play that could rhyme with $PEPE’s expansion phase. The current setup keeps that thesis alive only while the support trendlines remain unbroken.
The Two Levels That Define Everything
If $PENGU holds the mid-range support near $0.0082 and the ascending trendline, the structure points toward a retest of the channel top at $0.0110 (roughly +34% from current levels). A clean breakout above $0.0110 would put Martinez’s next watched level of $0.0210 in play.
A daily close below both the $0.0082 mid-range support and the rising trendline would invalidate the higher-low structure. That would open downside toward $0.0068 (about −16% from $0.0082), with a deeper floor near $0.0059 if selling accelerates.
The analyst’s core point is straightforward: the rejection from $0.0110 is not automatically bearish if price stabilizes at the mid-range and continues to print higher lows. The structure stays valid only while those two supports hold.
Broader Context
The call arrives while Bitcoin remains near $82,700 and several on-chain analysts have described the broader market as still inside an early bull phase rather than a confirmed bear market. That macro backdrop can support risk-on positioning in higher-beta tokens such as $PENGU, provided the token’s own technical supports remain intact.
Martinez has previously highlighted $PENGU’s channel structure and compared its consolidation phase to earlier meme-coin expansions. The 10 October post is a direct update to that view: the dip is not a reason to abandon the bullish structure yet.
Bullish Scenario
Hold the $0.0082 mid-range and the ascending trendline → retest $0.0110 → potential extension toward $0.0210 on a breakout.
Bearish Scenario
Daily close below both supports → path toward $0.0068 and potentially $0.0059, invalidating the higher-low thesis.
The level to watch is not a single price print. It is whether the two support trendlines continue to hold. As long as they do, Martinez’s message is that turning bearish here is premature.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $82,713 (+0.48% 24h), market cap $1.66T, inside a fractal decision zone per @alichartsFractal #1 maps 2026 BTC against March–April 2023 structure — 2023 broke from the same pink zone toward $29,500–$32,000Chart axis labels the 2026 upper resolution range at $100,000–$105,000 if Fractal #1 plays outFractal #2 failure level: breakdown below $82,000 opens chart support at $78,000–$77,000
Bitcoin is trading at $82,713 — up 0.48% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of approximately $1.66 trillion — and the chart structure analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) is watching carries a binary message: this setup resolves one of two ways, and the current price zone is where that decision is being made.
Martinez posted two charts on October 10, 2026, framing Bitcoin’s current price action as a fractal moment. His exact caption: “BITCOIN $BTC HAS TWO PATHS. Fractal #1 or #2? Which one plays out?” The question is not rhetorical — the charts map two structurally distinct historical templates, both of which began in the same kind of compressed consolidation zone Bitcoin is printing right now.
The Setup — What a Fractal Actually Means Here
A fractal comparison is not a prediction. It identifies a price structure that has appeared before and asks whether the current environment is likely to rhyme with the prior resolution. Martinez is applying this framework to Bitcoin’s daily chart, where two consolidation ranges — separated by weeks — share the same visual DNA: a grey accumulation zone, a pink rejection/pullback zone, and then a resolution candle that determined the next directional leg.
The first chart (@alicharts, daily, September 11 through October 11) shows two shaded green rectangles highlighting structurally similar consolidation zones. The earlier zone resolved with a sharp upward wick. The current zone, centered near $82,466 on the chart annotation, mirrors that prior structure — with the unresolved question being whether the breakout repeats.
Chart 1 of 2: BTC Daily Chart Analysis | Source: @alicharts (X)
Fractal #1 — The 2023 Rhyme
The second chart runs a direct side-by-side comparison: March–April 2023 on the left versus September–November 2026 on the right. The structural match is precise. In 2023, Bitcoin consolidated in a grey zone near $19,000–$21,500, pulled back into a pink rejection zone, then broke sharply upward through $27,000 toward $29,500–$32,000. The right panel shows 2026 BTC near $82,470 (dotted reference line), sitting inside an equivalent pink zone — positioned identically to where 2023 BTC was immediately before its breakout leg.
Fractal #1 implies the same resolution: consolidation holds, the pink zone acts as a launch pad rather than a ceiling, and Bitcoin pushes toward the upper range of the 2026 axis — annotated on the chart at approximately $100,000–$105,000. No explicit percentage target is printed on the chart, and Martinez does not attach a percentage projection in his post. The $105,000 zone represents the upper label on the 2026 right-side axis, structurally mirroring where 2023 BTC peaked in the fractal’s resolution phase.
Source: @alicharts (X)
Fractal #2 — The Alternate Resolution
Fractal #2 is not labeled with a specific price path — Martinez presents it as an open question to his audience, inviting them to evaluate which scenario they believe plays out. The structure of a two-path fractal analysis implies Fractal #2 carries a less bullish resolution: either a deeper pullback before any recovery, or a failed breakout from the current pink zone that sends price toward the lower end of the annotated range — chart labels show $78,000 and $77,000 as the visible lower support bands on the daily axis.
To be precise: Martinez does not explicitly describe Fractal #2’s price path in his post. The axis levels are visual context from the chart, not levels the analyst designates as targets or floors. The bearish read of Fractal #2 is structural inference from the two-path framing — not a stated conclusion.
Why the Pink Zone Is the Decision Point
Both charts converge on the same analytical observation: Bitcoin is currently inside the pink rejection/pullback zone. In the 2023 fractal, this zone was the last area of distribution before the rally leg. It was also where Fractal #2-style resolutions would have begun their divergence — through a sustained close below the grey consolidation range rather than a bounce from its lower boundary.
This makes the current zone — roughly $82,000–$82,713 at time of writing — the hinge point. A sustained reclaim of the upper boundary of the pink zone and a push toward the $87,000–$92,000 range (visible as chart axis labels) would structurally align with Fractal #1. A failure to hold and a breakdown through $78,000 would begin to invalidate the 2023 rhyme.
For further context on Bitcoin’s broader macro structure, CryptoQuant’s founder has argued Bitcoin remains in the early bull phase — a macro backdrop that would favor Fractal #1’s resolution. And for a counterpoint on trader positioning, one prominent trader recently flipped to a 40x BTC short after a significant long loss — suggesting conviction on both sides of this fractal debate is high.
Bullish Scenario — Fractal #1 Plays Out
Bitcoin holds the pink zone near current levels, reclaims the $87,000–$92,000 range visible on the daily axis, and tracks the 2023 fractal breakout structure toward the $100,000–$105,000 zone annotated on the chart’s right axis. The condition is a sustained close above the pink zone’s upper boundary — not an intraday wick.
Bearish Scenario — Fractal #2 Plays Out
Bitcoin fails to reclaim the upper range of the current consolidation, breaks below the $82,000 zone, and tests the lower chart axis bands at $78,000–$77,000. This would diverge from the 2023 template and open the door to a structurally different resolution — one Martinez leaves open but does not explicitly map.
The Signal’s Honest Scope
Martinez is not issuing a price target. He is identifying a structural rhyme and asking which template applies — which is itself the analytically honest framing. Fractals fail when macro conditions diverge, when liquidity structure differs, or when the consolidation zone is breached rather than respected. Bitcoin’s effective circulating supply remains far smaller than headline figures suggest — a structural variable that could amplify whichever fractal resolution plays out.
The 2023 template resolved bullishly. Whether 2026 repeats it depends on one thing: whether Bitcoin holds the pink zone and breaks upward from approximately $82,470 — or loses it. That level, and the next daily close, is what the fractal framework is watching.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $82,365 (-0.37% 24h) with a $1.655T market cap amid a pullback from 2025 highsCryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju: "Bitcoin is still in the early bull phase" — backed by 13-indicator on-chain heatmapKey indicators still green: Bull/Bear Indicator, NUPL, Adjusted SOPR, and Analyst Consensus IndexRegime flip risk: heatmap turning red majority across all 13 indicators is the invalidation signal — not a price level
Bitcoin is trading at $82,365 — down just 0.37% in the past 24 hours — with a market capitalization of $1.655 trillion. The pullback from 2025 highs has triggered bear market calls across social media. CryptoQuant’s founder is not among them.
Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju), founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, issued a direct call on October 9, 2026: “Don’t confuse a bull market correction with a bear market. Bitcoin is still in the early bull phase. BTFD.” The declaration is not a price target. It is a regime call — backed by a thirteen-indicator on-chain heatmap that Ju publishes as CryptoQuant’s composite market cycle signal.
The Heatmap — Thirteen Indicators, One Regime Verdict
The Bull/Bear Heatmap that anchors Ju’s thesis aggregates thirteen independent on-chain signals into a single color-coded matrix. Each row is a separate metric. Each column is a time period. Green means the indicator is reading bull-market conditions. Red means bear-market conditions. The framework spans Bitcoin’s full 2020–2026 price history, allowing a direct visual comparison of current readings against confirmed prior bear markets — specifically the 2022 collapse from $69,000 to $15,500.
1) Asset & Timeframe | Source: @ki_young_ju (X)
As of the October 9 reading, the rightmost columns of the heatmap — representing current conditions — show a mixed but predominantly green profile. Multiple indicators remain in confirmed bull territory: the Bull/Bear Indicator, Trader Unrealized Profit (NUPL), Adjusted SOPR, and the Analyst Consensus Index are all flagged green. The 2022 bear market, by contrast, produced a near-uniform red sweep across all thirteen rows. That structural difference is the analytical foundation for Ju’s regime call.
This is a critical distinction. In a genuine bear market, on-chain behavior shifts broadly and simultaneously: unrealized losses dominate, spent outputs register at losses (SOPR below 1), and the Bull/Bear composite flips to red across the majority of its components. None of those conditions are present in the current reading. What is present — a price decline from a prior peak with several indicators still registering bullish readings — is consistent with every major bull market correction Bitcoin has produced since 2013, including the 2021 corrections of 53% and 29% that preceded new all-time highs.
Why This Correction Is Not a Bear Market — The On-Chain Case
The white price line in Ju’s chart traces Bitcoin’s full cycle from 2020 through mid-2026. The deep trough visible in the 2022–2023 period — the confirmed bear market — coincided with the heatmap’s broadest and most sustained red reading across all thirteen indicators. The current pullback from the 2025 peak shows a partial decline in the price line, but the heatmap beneath it has not reproduced that uniform red pattern. Several rows that turned red in 2022 remain green today.
This is the mechanism behind Ju’s argument: if this were a structural bear market, the on-chain data would be confirming it across the majority of his thirteen metrics. It is not. The indicators that specifically measure whether holders are in profit (NUPL), whether coins are being spent at a loss (SOPR), and whether the broader analyst community has shifted bearish (Analyst Consensus Index) are still reading bull-phase conditions. A price decline while these metrics remain green is the textbook definition of a correction within an ongoing trend — not a trend reversal.
For context on the broader market environment, the recent leverage flush that affected multiple assets — detailed in this CoinsProbe analysis of the leverage washout across major assets — is consistent with a healthy correction dynamic rather than structural capitulation. Forced liquidations clearing leveraged positions while spot holders remain in profit is a pattern that has appeared repeatedly during bull market consolidations.
“BTFD” — What the Call Actually Requires
Ju’s instruction to “Buy The F***ing Dip” is a regime-conditional call. It is valid only if the heatmap’s green majority holds. The risk scenario is specific: if the indicators that are currently mixed — the rows showing partial red — deteriorate further and the heatmap flips to a red majority, the regime characterization changes. Ju has not specified a price level at which that flip would occur, and no price level should be inferred from the heatmap alone. The signal is composite and on-chain, not price-chart derived.
What Ju is not saying is also important: he is not calling a bottom. He is not providing a price target. He is making a market phase identification — that the current environment is a bull market correction phase, which historically has been the higher-probability buying zone rather than the exit zone. The word “early” in “early bull phase” carries analytical weight: it implies the cycle has not reached the distribution phase where on-chain metrics would begin to broadly deteriorate.
Bullish Scenario
If the heatmap’s green indicators hold and the mixed indicators stabilize, Bitcoin’s current price action at $82,365 represents the correction phase within an ongoing bull cycle. Prior confirmed bull market corrections of this character — where multiple on-chain indicators remained green during the price pullback — have resolved to new cycle highs. The 2021 corrections that produced 53% and 29% drawdowns while NUPL remained in the “belief” zone both preceded subsequent all-time highs.
Bearish Scenario
If the currently mixed indicators in the heatmap deteriorate further — specifically if NUPL, Adjusted SOPR, and the Bull/Bear Indicator flip to red — the regime characterization changes. A broad red sweep across the majority of the thirteen indicators would be the on-chain signal that Ju’s bull market thesis is invalidated. That is the condition to monitor, not a specific price level.
Separately, traders watching the altcoin space alongside Bitcoin’s cycle position may find the SUI monthly close analysis relevant — that signal offers a complementary view on where the broader crypto cycle stands from a price-structure perspective.
Ki Young Ju’s verdict is unambiguous: thirteen on-chain indicators, several still reading bull-phase conditions, during a price pullback from 2025 highs does not constitute a bear market. It constitutes a correction. The heatmap’s color distribution — green majority with a mixed fringe — is the exact configuration that has historically appeared during bull market drawdowns, not during structural reversals. At $82,365, the regime call is intact. The level to watch is not a price on a chart — it is the moment the heatmap’s green majority flips. Until it does, Ju’s framework says the dip is the opportunity, not the warning.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Pi Network published a new blog on 8 October 2026 outlining its principles for stablecoins, stressing a deliberate design that keeps Pi as the primary cryptocurrency.Stablecoins are framed as a narrower tool for price-stable use cases—accounting, settlement, external connectivity—rather than a replacement for Pi.The Core Team reiterated its partnership with Open Standard (OUSD), saying it will explore Pioneer rewards programs and broader ecosystem utility.No implementation timeline, Mainnet integration details, or technical specs were released; compliance is flagged as a core consideration.
Pi Network is laying out how stablecoins should fit inside its ecosystem—if they fit at all—rather than simply adding another dollar-pegged token.
On 8 October 2026 the project published “Pi Network’s Approach to Stablecoins.” The next day the official Pi Core Team account pointed Pioneers to the post, noting that the team is exploring how stablecoins can add utility while remaining complementary to Pi, and how the existing OUSD partnership fits that strategy.
Pi Network Exploring Stablecoins | Source: @PiCoreTeam (X)
Source: @PiCoreTeam (X), 9 October 2026; Pi Network blog, 8 October 2026
The Role of Stablecoins Versus Pi
The blog draws a clear line. Pi is described as the native cryptocurrency that supports ecosystem participation and utility across apps, developer tools, commerce, and payments. Stablecoins, by contrast, are positioned for situations where predictable value matters.
Price swings, the post notes, can complicate accounting, settlement, and dealings with parties outside the network. Businesses may also have limited appetite for token-price exposure. Stablecoins could therefore act as connectivity channels—letting certain activity stay inside Pi instead of routing through external rails—while Pi itself remains the primary crypto used across the network’s processes.
The Core Team explicitly says its approach “may thus differ from how stablecoins have been introduced elsewhere,” and that simply adding a stablecoin does not guarantee it will complement Pi.
OUSD Partnership and the Network Model
Pi says it chose to work with OUSD because the stablecoin reflects a principle the project has long emphasized: networks work best when value stays with the people and businesses that build and use them.
OUSD is described as governed by a consortium of 200+ companies, free to mint and redeem at any scale, and structured so that most reserve income returns to the partners who distribute it. In the partnership, Pi will explore rewards programs for Pioneers and broader utility across the ecosystem.
Pi Network Partners with Open Standard | Source: @PiCoreTeam (X)
Open Standard’s OUSD went live on 30 September 2026 on Base, Ethereum, Solana, and Tempo. It is issued by Bridge (a Stripe company), mints and redeems 1:1 with USD at no cost, and holds reserves at BlackRock, Lead Bank, and BNY, with monthly attestations. Founding and partner names previously cited around the project include Visa, Google, Stripe, Mastercard, Coinbase, BlackRock, and Shopify. Pi’s latest blog does not add new integration dates or on-chain addresses for the Pi ecosystem itself.
Implementation Will Be Cautious
The post states that any stablecoin implementation inside Pi will be “intentionally and cautiously designed” to match the network’s needs. The current focus is on principles that should guide future integration. Compliance is called out as an important factor.
No technical mechanism, reserve model specific to Pi, rollout schedule, or change to Pi’s token role is announced. The blog closes by saying readers should look forward to more information as the approach develops.
What to Watch
Whether “explore rewards programs” turns into a concrete Pioneer incentive tied to OUSD distribution or usage.Any signal that OUSD (or another stablecoin) will be usable inside Pi Browser apps, commerce flows, or settlement—versus remaining an external partnership.How the team balances price-stable rails with its repeated statement that Pi stays the primary crypto.Compliance steps, given the blog’s explicit mention of regulatory considerations and the lack of a published timeline.
The 9 October post from @PiCoreTeam frames the blog as the place to understand Pi’s approach, the potential expansion of participation, the need for careful design, and the role of the OUSD partnership. Execution details remain ahead of the announcement.
Investment Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $82,247 (-0.29%) as Alphractal flags 37.2% of 20.10M BTC supply is permanently lost — 7,468,233 BTCOnly 31.2% of total BTC supply (6,267,308 BTC) remains in circulation across miners, retail, and unattributed walletsUS spot ETFs hold 1,291,418 BTC (6.4%); exchanges hold 2,663,367 BTC (13.3%) — exchange balance is the float indicator to watch31.6% held by identified entities including governments (645,590 BTC) and public company treasuries (1,020,898 BTC)
Bitcoin is trading at $82,247 — down 0.29% over the past 24 hours — with a market capitalization of $1.65 trillion. Beneath the daily price noise, a structural reality is forming that most investors have not fully priced: the pool of Bitcoin that can actually be bought, sold, or moved is dramatically smaller than the headline supply figure suggests.
On-chain research platform Alphractal (@Alphractal) published a supply-distribution breakdown flagging that 37.2% of the current 20.10 million BTC in existence is estimated to be permanently lost — coins that will never re-enter circulation. Their conclusion is direct: “Bitcoin may face a much stronger supply shock in the future than most investors realize.”
The Supply Breakdown — What 20.10M BTC Actually Looks Like
The full Alphractal supply map divides Bitcoin’s 20.10M BTC into three dominant categories. The first and largest is lost coins, estimated at 7,468,233 BTC — 37.2% of total supply. These are coins held in wallets whose private keys have been permanently lost, including the coins associated with Satoshi Nakamoto mined during Bitcoin’s earliest period. The lost-coin chart, which tracks this figure from 2010 to the present, shows the lost-supply count rose steeply between 2010 and 2018, peaked near 8.62 million BTC, and has gradually declined to approximately 7.47 million BTC currently as improved key-management practices slowed the rate of new losses.
Chart 1 of 2: Chart Analysis | Source: @Alphractal (X)
The second category is identified entities — 31.6% of supply, or roughly 6.35 million BTC — held by institutions and organizations whose wallet clusters have been attributed with high confidence. Within this block, Alphractal breaks down exact figures: exchanges hold 2,663,367 BTC (13.3% of total supply); US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 1,291,418 BTC (6.4%); public company treasuries hold 1,020,898 BTC (5.1%); governments hold 645,590 BTC (3.2%); and private companies hold 284,656 BTC (1.4%). These are not coins available for open-market purchase on any given day — they represent long-duration, institutionally controlled holdings with low velocity.
The third category is what Alphractal calls remaining supply: 31.2% of total, or 6,267,308 BTC. This is the pool distributed across miners, retail participants, and unattributed wallets — the functional float of Bitcoin. When institutional demand increases and ETF inflows accelerate, it is this 31.2% that must absorb the pressure. The supply distribution treemap published by Alphractal makes the constraint visually immediate: three near-equal rectangular blocks, with only one of them available to the market at scale.
Source: @Alphractal (X)
Why the Lost-Coin Estimate Is Structurally Significant
Lost Bitcoin does not behave like a dormant asset waiting to return. Unlike long-term holder coins, which are illiquid but theoretically recoverable, lost coins are permanently removed from the economic supply. The mechanism is permanent: no private key, no transaction. Alphractal’s 37.2% estimate aligns with the academic range most commonly cited by on-chain researchers — Chainalysis estimated in its 2020 report that between 3.7 million and 4.7 million BTC had been lost, a figure that has since risen as additional early-era coins have remained unmoved for over a decade.
What the historical chart published by Alphractal adds is a long-run trajectory: the lost-coin figure peaked and is now slowly declining as a share of total supply, not because coins are being recovered, but because the total supply base has continued to grow while the pace of new losses has slowed. The effective result is that lost coins now represent a stable, large ceiling of permanently unavailable supply — not a variable that is likely to contract the effective float further, but one that has already contracted it significantly and will not reverse.
This structural reality intersects directly with the current institutional demand picture. As covered in our analysis of Bitcoin spot demand weakening, even modest deterioration in demand metrics has produced outsized price moves — in both directions — precisely because the float is thin. The available 31.2% is the market. Everything else is structural overhang.
Identified Entities — The Illiquidity Within the Liquid
The 31.6% held by identified entities deserves its own scrutiny, because “identified” does not mean “available.” Exchange-held coins — the 2,663,367 BTC at 13.3% — represent both customer holdings and exchange reserves, a portion of which is operational cold storage rather than available liquidity. ETF-held coins (1,291,418 BTC) are redeemable only through authorized participants under specific conditions, not through open-market selling. Government-held coins (645,590 BTC, 3.2%) are largely the product of law enforcement seizures — the United States and Germany alone account for the majority — and are liquidated episodically, not continuously.
Public company treasuries, led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) with over 528,185 BTC as of its most recent public disclosure, are explicitly held as long-duration assets under a policy of not selling. The 1,020,898 BTC across all public company treasuries represents a cohort that has, as a group, been net buyers throughout Bitcoin’s correction phases. As noted in our earlier coverage of Bitcoin miners pausing selling activity, the supply side of this market is compressing from multiple directions simultaneously.
The Supply Shock Mechanism — How Scarcity Becomes Price
Alphractal’s framing — “a much stronger supply shock than most investors realize” — is a conditional claim, not a prediction of an imminent price move. The mechanism requires demand to reach the supply constraint. When demand exceeds what the 31.2% float can absorb at current prices, sellers must be found in the identified-entity category, which requires substantially higher prices to unlock. Government auctions happen at specific trigger events. Long-term holders require sufficiently strong incentive to sell. ETF redemptions require sustained outflows. The supply shock does not activate because supply is scarce — it activates when demand grows faster than the float can accommodate.
At $82,247, Bitcoin is currently in a price range where spot demand has moderated. The supply shock thesis is not a near-term catalyst — it is a structural condition that makes any future demand surge more explosive in price terms than it would otherwise be. The 37.2% lost-coin figure does not change. The 31.6% institutional lock-up figure grows as ETF inflows continue. The 31.2% float can only shrink relative to total supply over time as institutional accumulation continues and the halving schedule reduces new issuance.
Bullish Scenario
If institutional inflows via US spot ETFs — currently holding 1,291,418 BTC — resume at the pace seen in late 2024 through early 2025, the 31.2% float faces direct compression. ETF demand alone absorbed over 300,000 BTC in its first year. A second comparable absorption period against a float of 6.27 million BTC would represent roughly 4.8% of the entire remaining free-float — sufficient to produce a structural supply-demand imbalance at current price levels.
Bearish Scenario
If demand continues to soften and the identified-entity category — specifically exchanges — shows rising net inflows (coins moving from cold storage to exchange hot wallets), the effective float temporarily expands. This is the condition that precedes distribution cycles: coins move from long-term holders toward liquid venues ahead of price weakness. The 2,663,367 BTC currently on exchanges is the most immediate variable to monitor as a leading indicator of whether the supply compression is holding.
The Alphractal supply map does not assign a price target. It establishes a constraint. With 37.2% of Bitcoin’s supply gone permanently, 31.6% held by entities that move slowly or not at all, and only 31.2% available to a market that includes both retail and institutional participants, the margin for error in supply-demand balance is narrower than most models assume. Watch exchange Bitcoin balances — currently 2,663,367 BTC — as the real-time indicator of whether the float is expanding or contracting from here.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin is trading at $80,992 (-2.89% 24h) as CryptoQuant confirms zero extreme miner outflows since August 21, 2026Miners transitioned from "extremely underpaid" to "fairly paid" when BTC hit $76,000 — ending 29,000 BTC single-day outflow eventsCryptoQuant: miner selling was "one of the steadiest sources of supply" weighing on price through the 2026 bear market$76,000 is the documented price threshold where the miner behavioral regime changed — the level to watch for reversal
Bitcoin is trading at $80,992 — down 2.89% in the past 24 hours — but a structural shift in miner behavior identified by CryptoQuant may be more consequential than the daily candle. Since August 21, 2026, extreme miner outflows have ceased entirely. That is not a technical signal. It is an on-chain fact: one of the most persistent sources of sell-side supply in the 2026 bear market has gone quiet.
CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com) published the finding directly: “No extreme miner outflows since Aug 21, the day BTC hit $76K and miners flipped from ‘extremely underpaid’ to ‘fairly paid.’ That removes one of the steadiest sources of supply that weighed on price through the 2026 bear market.” The date is precise. The mechanism is named. The implication is structural.
Signal 1 — Extreme Miner Outflows Have Ceased Since August 21
Miner outflow data measures the volume of BTC transferred from mining pool wallets to external addresses — primarily exchanges. When those transfers spike, miners are liquidating newly mined coins to cover operational costs: energy bills, hardware servicing, debt obligations. During periods of sustained price compression, miners operating below their break-even cost are forced sellers. That is not speculation — it is accounting.
From May through August 2026, CryptoQuant’s data shows that extreme outflow events — the red-dot spikes that mark above-threshold selling — were a recurring feature of the market. The most recent extreme event was logged on August 21, when 29,000 BTC left miner wallets in a single day. That date aligned precisely with Bitcoin’s price touching $76,000. At that level, according to CryptoQuant’s miner profitability framework, the average miner crossed back into “fairly paid” territory — meaning revenue from block rewards and fees once again exceeded operating costs at scale.
Chart 1 of 2: Chart Analysis | Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
Since August 21, that pattern has not repeated. The chart shared by CryptoQuant shows miner outflow spikes declining sharply in both frequency and magnitude through September and into October 2026. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) overlay, compressed near zero through the bear period, reflects this same dynamic: miners were not accumulating unrealized gains during the downturn — they were selling at or near cost. The removal of that selling pressure coincides with the outflow cessation.
For context on how significant the miner selling cycle was during the 2026 bear market, see our earlier analysis: Bitcoin Miners Shift From Sellers to Holders — Four On-Chain Signals to Watch.
Signal 2 — The “Fairly Paid” Threshold Crossed at $76K
CryptoQuant’s Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability metric tracks the cost basis of Bitcoin’s mining industry in aggregate, classifying miners as “extremely underpaid,” “fairly paid,” or profitable. The classification is not arbitrary — it is derived from hash rate, difficulty, energy cost estimates, and block reward economics.
Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The second chart in CryptoQuant’s post shows the precise transition. From May through August 2026, blue bars dominate below the zero line — the “extremely underpaid” regime. These are the months when miner outflows were most aggressive, as operators were absorbing losses on every BTC they held and had little incentive to wait for recovery. The shift to gray “fairly paid” bars begins in late August, directly correlated with Bitcoin’s price recovery off the $76,000 low. The BTC price line on the right axis troughs in mid-period and begins climbing as the “extremely underpaid” bars disappear.
CryptoQuant annotates the chart explicitly: “Fairly paid since Aug 21.” The “Extremely underpaid May–August” period is labeled as a discrete regime. These are not analyst interpretations overlaid on ambiguous data — they are the platform’s own profitability classifications applied to the mining industry’s aggregate cost structure.
What this means operationally: miners who were previously compelled to sell BTC the moment it was mined — to avoid deepening losses — now have the option to hold. That option changes the supply equation. A miner who does not need to sell immediately is not a seller. And a market that loses a consistent, structurally motivated seller is a market with less natural overhead.
Why This Supply Dynamic Matters
Miner selling is often dismissed as a small fraction of Bitcoin’s daily volume — and in absolute terms, block rewards at current difficulty generate roughly 450 BTC per day across the network. But the significance of miner outflows is not their volume. It is their consistency and timing.
During the 2026 bear market, miners selling into every price recovery acted as a structural ceiling. Every bounce created an opportunity for cost-burdened miners to reduce exposure. That is a feedback loop: price rises → miner sells → price suppressed → further losses → more forced selling. CryptoQuant’s data shows that loop ran from May through August, with the August 21 outflow of 29,000 BTC representing the final extreme event before the transition.
With miners now classified as “fairly paid” at current price levels, that feedback loop has been interrupted. Miners operating above break-even are rational holders — they have no urgency to liquidate. The structural selling pressure that CryptoQuant describes as “one of the steadiest sources of supply” during the bear market has, by their on-chain data, been removed.
For additional context on how Bitcoin’s spot demand picture has evolved alongside this miner behavior shift, see: Bitcoin Spot Demand Weakens — $69K Identified as Key Support in Correction.
What to Watch From Here
CryptoQuant’s note does not provide upside price targets, support levels, or a forward projection — and this article will not manufacture them. What the data confirms is a regime change in one specific supply variable. Whether that regime change is sufficient to drive sustained price appreciation depends on demand-side factors that this signal does not address.
The metric to monitor in real time is miner outflow data on CryptoQuant’s platform. If BTC were to fall back toward or below $76,000 — the level at which miners crossed back into “fairly paid” territory — the risk of re-entering the “extremely underpaid” regime and reigniting forced selling would increase materially. CryptoQuant does not state $76,000 as a formal support level, but the August 21 price anchor is the documented threshold for the behavioral regime change.
Equally relevant: on-chain data from CryptoQuant updates in real time. Any resumption of extreme outflow events — red-dot spikes returning to the miner outflow chart — would signal that the supply relief identified on August 21 has been reversed.
Bullish Scenario
Miner outflows remain suppressed as Bitcoin holds above the $76,000 “fairly paid” threshold. With forced selling removed and demand-side flows recovering, the natural supply overhead from miners does not return. Price discovers levels above current $80,992 with less structural resistance from the mining industry.
Bearish Scenario
Bitcoin retraces toward $76,000 or below, pushing miners back into “extremely underpaid” territory. Extreme outflow events resume, re-establishing the consistent sell-side pressure that characterized May through August 2026. The regime change identified by CryptoQuant is reversed.
The CryptoQuant data is unambiguous on what happened on August 21: miners stopped selling, and that stopping coincides with a documented shift from extreme underpayment to fair payment at $76,000. Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,992 — approximately $4,992 above that documented behavioral threshold. Whether that buffer holds or narrows is the single variable that determines whether the supply dynamic described in this note remains intact. Watch $76,000 as the level that defines which regime Bitcoin’s miners are operating in.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
AguilaTrades returns after 6+ months inactive — 33 prior liquidations, $37.64M total losses on recordDeposited 499,000 USDC on Hyperliquid, opened 40x long on 200 BTC — $16.58M notional positionLiquidation price set at $81,466.75 — a live on-chain level now visible on Hypurrscan
BREAKING
A trader with one of the most documented loss records in on-chain derivatives is back. AguilaTrades (@AguilaTrades), who has been liquidated 33 times across a career total of $37.64 million in losses, resurfaced on Hyperliquid after more than six months of complete inactivity — and opened one of the largest single-position bets of his trading history.
The return was flagged by Lookonchain on October 8, 2026. According to on-chain data verified on Hypurrscan, AguilaTrades deposited 499,000 USDC and immediately opened a 40x leveraged long on 200 BTC, placing a notional position size of $16.58 million.
Source: Arkham/ Lookonchain — October 8, 2026
The Position — 40x Long, $16.58M Notional, One Liquidation Price
The structure of this trade is straightforward and extreme. At 40x leverage, the position requires only a modest adverse move to reach full liquidation. Hypurrscan’s data shows the exact liquidation price at $81,466.75 — meaning any sustained BTC close below that level wipes the entire 499K USDC deposit.
Parameter Detail Trader AguilaTrades (@AguilaTrades) Platform Hyperliquid (Perpetuals) Deposit 499,000 USDC Position 40x Long — 200 BTC Notional Size $16.58M Liquidation Price $81,466.75 Prior Liquidations 33 times Total Historical Losses $37.64M
The 40x leverage ratio means a price move of roughly 2.5% against the position is sufficient to trigger liquidation. On a $16.58M notional BTC long, this is not a wide margin. The trader’s entire deposited capital — $499,000 — is at risk against a single price level.
Source: Hypurrscan / Lookonchain — October 8, 2026
The Track Record — 33 Liquidations, $37.64M Gone
AguilaTrades is not an anonymous wallet. The address 0x1f250Df59A777d61Cb8bd043c12970F3AFE4F925, fully verifiable on Hypurrscan, carries a documented history of 33 separate liquidation events with cumulative realized losses of $37.64 million. That figure is not estimated — it is the aggregate of on-chain liquidation records across the wallet’s history.
The six-month absence preceding this trade was the longest gap in activity the wallet has recorded. Whether that pause represented capital rebuilding, a change in strategy, or simply time away from the market is not known. What is on-chain is the return: a 499K USDC deposit, a 40x lever, and a $16.58M position opened in a single transaction.
AguilaTrades Portfolio on Hyperliquid | Source: @lookonchain (X)
This pattern — a high-leverage return following a significant absence — is not unique to this trader. A comparable dynamic played out when an ETH trader who lost $471K shorting returned to open a $64.3M 25x long, and when a SOL trader with a 78% win rate deployed a $19.78M long with a defined liquidation level. High-stakes conviction entries following dormancy periods are a recurring on-chain signature.
What This Position Means — and What It Doesn’t
A 40x long from a trader with 33 liquidations on record is not, by itself, a directional signal for Bitcoin. What it is: a data point about positioning at current BTC prices, a specific liquidation cluster now sitting at $81,466.75, and a reminder that Hyperliquid’s on-chain perpetuals market provides full transparency on exactly this kind of high-risk positioning — transparency that centralized exchanges cannot match.
The liquidation price of $81,466.75 is now a live on-chain reference level. If Bitcoin approaches that range, the 200 BTC position will be force-closed, adding sell-side pressure to the market at that price. Traders monitoring Hyperliquid’s liquidation map can track this cluster in real time via Hypurrscan.
For context on how concentrated liquidation events cascade through the market, the PUMP token drop that triggered $3.61M in liquidations across two traders illustrates how a single price level can clear multiple large positions in rapid succession.
AguilaTrades has returned with 499,000 USDC, 40x leverage, and a liquidation price at $81,466.75. The on-chain record speaks for itself. Watch $81,466.75 as the level that determines whether this trade joins the 33 — or breaks the streak.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin fell 5.55% from $86,976 on Oct 5 to $82,150 — TD Sequential 9 buy signal now active on 4-hour chartEthereum dropped 7.36% from $2,738 to $2,537 — same 4-hour buy signal printed at $2,570 confirmation zoneXRP buy signal at $1.409 follows a sell signal at ~$1.53 that accurately called the swing high — internal track record within same sequenceAll three signals flagged simultaneously by analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) in a 5-part October 8 thread
Bitcoin is trading at $82,957 — down 1.29% in the past 24 hours and off 5.55% from its October 5 high of $86,976 — while Ethereum and XRP have shed 7.36% and a comparable magnitude in the same window. The decline is notable not for its size, but for what it has triggered simultaneously across three of crypto’s largest assets: a TD Sequential 9 buy signal on each of their 4-hour charts.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) flagged the convergence in a 5-part thread on October 8, writing: “BUY SIGNAL ON BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, AND XRP.” Martinez notes that the signal on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart “comes after $BTC fell 5.55%, from $86,976 on October 5 to $82,150” and that “the signal suggests this pullback may be nearing an end, with a rebound now worth watching.”
What the TD Sequential Actually Measures
The TD Sequential is a momentum-exhaustion indicator, not a trend-following tool. It counts nine consecutive bars closing lower than the bar four periods prior — identifying the point at which selling pressure has statistically run its course. The “9” is not a price level. It is a count. When the count completes with an upward arrow, it signals that the selling sequence is exhausted — not that buyers have confirmed a reversal. Confirmation requires follow-through price action above the signal candle’s high.
The critical edge in Martinez’s observation is not that one asset printed a 9 — it is that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP printed the signal at essentially the same moment on the same timeframe. That synchronicity reduces the probability of a false signal on any individual asset, since all three would need to fail simultaneously for the read to be wrong.
Signal 1 — Bitcoin: $82,150 Low After a 5.55% Drop
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a clean bearish sequence from October 5 to October 8 — a controlled decline from $86,976 to a low of $82,150, a drop of $4,826 in price terms. The TD Sequential registered its 9 buy signal at the recent low, mirroring an earlier 9 sell signal that appeared at the prior swing high. The symmetry is what Martinez is flagging: the sell signal marked the top accurately; the buy signal is now appearing at the bottom of the same move.
Chart Analysis | Source: @alicharts (X)
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered modestly to $82,957 — approximately $807 above the TD Sequential trigger low. The 4-hour chart shows the signal candle printed near $82,821 per the chart price box, with the analyst’s stated low of $82,150 representing the intraday exhaustion point. The immediate question is whether buyers can push price above the signal candle’s high and sustain it — that is the confirmation the indicator requires before the buy signal is considered active. For context on what happens when Bitcoin loses key cost-basis levels during pullbacks, see Bitcoin Fails to Hold the Active Realized Price — What That Means.
Signal 2 — Ethereum: $2,537 Low After a 7.36% Drop
Ethereum’s decline was steeper in percentage terms. Martinez cites a 7.36% drop from $2,738 to $2,537 — a $201 move in absolute terms across the same October 5–8 window. The 4-hour TD Sequential printed its 9 buy signal at the $2,537 low, with the chart dashed-line level explicitly marked at $2,570 as the zone Martinez is watching for buyer confirmation.
Source: @alicharts (X)
The chart shows small-bodied consolidation candles forming near the lows following the sharp multi-candle decline — a pattern consistent with exhaustion rather than active distribution. Martinez stated he is “watching for” buyer confirmation to trigger a recovery bounce, with the target price referenced in the original thread text but not printed on the chart image itself. Ethereum’s signal is the weakest of the three in magnitude terms — the asset fell hardest — which makes buyer confirmation at $2,570 the most critical confirmation level across the three assets.
Signal 3 — XRP: $1.409 Low, Sell Signal Preceded the Drop
XRP’s chart adds the most structural weight to the thesis. The 4-hour chart shows two TD Sequential 9 markers: a sell signal with a downward arrow near the swing high around the $1.53 area, followed by a buy signal with an upward arrow near the recent low at $1.409. The sell signal at the top preceded the steep multi-candle decline — giving the current buy signal a documented track record within the same price sequence.
Source: @alicharts (X)
This internal consistency — sell signal called the top, buy signal now appearing at the bottom — is the pattern Martinez is drawing attention to across all three assets. XRP’s current price of $1.409 per the chart price box sits at the base of the decline. As with Bitcoin and Ethereum, the TD Sequential read is not a purchase order; it is a warning that the selling sequence is mathematically complete and that continuation lower would require a fresh count to begin.
Why the Convergence Matters More Than Any Single Signal
Isolated 4-hour TD Sequential signals fire frequently and carry limited standalone weight. What makes this thread analytically significant is the simultaneous appearance across Bitcoin ($1.67 trillion market cap), Ethereum, and XRP — three assets that, while correlated, run on separate chains with different liquidity profiles and different trader bases. The probability that all three exhaust their respective selling sequences at the same moment by coincidence is lower than any single instance.
The 4-hour timeframe is also relevant. TD Sequential signals on shorter timeframes (15-minute, 1-hour) produce noise. On daily charts, they are rarer but slower to confirm. The 4-hour sits at the intersection of intraday momentum and swing-trade relevance — the timeframe where institutional desks and active traders monitor entry zones. A 9 buy signal here is actionable in a way that a 1-hour signal is not. For historical context on how Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators have aligned with cyclical bottoms, see Bitcoin Profit/Loss Ratio ‘Kiss’ — The Signal That Has Marked Every Cycle Bottom.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers confirm the TD Sequential buy signals on all three assets — meaning price closes above each signal candle’s high on the 4-hour chart — the pullback structure is complete and the prior uptrend resumes. For Bitcoin, that means a reclaim of the $84,000–$85,000 zone as the first structural recovery target. For Ethereum, confirmation above $2,570 opens the path back toward $2,620–$2,660. For XRP, a close above $1.45 would represent the first structural higher low since the sell signal fired at $1.53.
Bearish Scenario
If the TD Sequential signals fail to attract buyers and price breaks below the signal candle lows — Bitcoin below $82,150, Ethereum below $2,537, XRP below $1.409 — a fresh bearish count begins. Under that scenario, the 9 buy signals become failed setups, and the next support levels would need to be identified from longer-timeframe charts. Simultaneous failure across all three assets would signal that the October 5 decline has further to run.
The signal is present across three assets simultaneously. Confirmation is not. Bitcoin at $82,957, Ethereum near $2,570, and XRP at $1.409 are each sitting at the exact levels where the TD Sequential says selling is exhausted — and where the next few 4-hour closes will determine whether the pullback ends or extends. Watch Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $82,150 and reclaim $84,000 as the clearest near-term confirmation that the October pullback has found its floor.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $83,032 (-1.45% 24h) as CryptoQuant's @DanCoinInvestor flags a historically consistent cycle-bottom signalSupply in Profit at 69.15% is closing toward the 50% "kiss" threshold — a convergence that has marked every prior downtrend bottomThe same pattern completed in early 2023 and preceded Bitcoin's full uptrend cycle resumptionConfirmation requires the two lines to separate after convergence — that divergence has not yet occurred
Bitcoin is trading at $83,032 — down 1.45% in the past 24 hours — with a market capitalization of $1.67 trillion. Beneath the surface noise of daily price action, a structural signal is completing that CryptoQuant analyst @DanCoinInvestor identifies as the fingerprint of every major cycle bottom in Bitcoin’s history: the convergence and “kiss” of the profit ratio and loss ratio at the 50% threshold.
The signal was flagged by CryptoQuant’s official account (@cryptoquant_com) on October 8, 2026, with the analyst’s exact conclusion: “At the bottom of every downtrend cycle so far, the loss ratio and the profit ratio have kissed, and as the market shifted into an uptrend cycle, the two lines moved apart again.” The word “nearly” in the post’s title is the only qualifier — the completion of this pattern is in progress, not yet confirmed.
What the Profit/Loss Ratio “Kiss” Actually Measures
The Supply in Profit % and Supply in Loss % are on-chain metrics that track what percentage of all Bitcoin in circulation was last moved at a price lower or higher than the current market price. When the market rises sharply and holds high for an extended period, the profit percentage dominates — approaching 90% or higher at cycle peaks. When prices collapse and capitulation sets in, the loss percentage rises sharply, closing the gap with the profit percentage. The moment they converge near the 50% mark — when roughly half of all supply is underwater — is what @DanCoinInvestor calls the “kiss.”
The chart shared by @cryptoquant_com shows the current reading at Supply in Profit: 69.15% (down 7.41 percentage points, a -9.68% move) against a Realized Price of $53,823.88. The Supply in Loss % is partially converging toward the 50% dashed horizontal line on the lower panel — the structural threshold the analyst identifies as the historical inflection zone. The Bitcoin spot price labeled on the chart at the time of publication was $83,418.88, a figure derived from the chart annotation; the live price at time of writing is $83,032.
Chart Analysis | Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The Historical Pattern — Two Confirmed Instances, One Forming
The chart spans approximately mid-2022 to a projected axis extending toward mid-2027. Two yellow circles are annotated directly on the chart by the analyst. The first circle marks the early 2023 convergence — the moment the profit and loss ratios kissed near the 50% line during Bitcoin’s post-FTX bottom. That convergence preceded Bitcoin’s recovery from the $15,000–$16,000 range into a sustained multi-year uptrend. The second circle marks the current forming convergence in what the chart labels as mid-2026 — a structural echo of the 2023 signal at the same ~50% threshold.
The pattern is not subjective — it is defined by a measurable crossing of two on-chain lines at a specific ratio. At cycle peaks, profit supply is near 90%+ and loss supply near 0–10%. The “kiss” at 50% represents the point of maximum on-chain pain, where capitulation is most complete. @DanCoinInvestor’s thesis is that this precise moment — not a price level, but a ratio level — has marked the end of every downtrend cycle in Bitcoin’s data history.
It is worth being precise about what the signal does and does not state. The analyst describes the pattern as having occurred “at the bottom of every downtrend cycle so far” — this is a historical observation across a limited number of cycles. The current convergence is described as “nearly completed,” which means the kiss has not yet been confirmed as complete. The signal’s track record is grounded in on-chain data, but Bitcoin has experienced only a small number of full market cycles since 2012, which is the relevant sample size for any historical claim of this type.
For readers tracking Bitcoin’s broader on-chain structure, the recent reading that Bitcoin failed to hold its Active Realized Price adds context to where the current cycle stands relative to prior structural thresholds.
What “Nearly Completed” Means — The Confirmation Condition
@DanCoinInvestor’s language is deliberate. The post states the market has “nearly completed” its shift — not completed it. In prior cycles, the confirmation came when the two lines began moving apart again after the kiss, with the profit ratio turning back upward and the loss ratio declining. That divergence — the separation after the convergence — is the signal of cycle transition, not the convergence itself.
At a current Supply in Profit of 69.15%, the lines have not yet kissed at 50%. The metric has moved sharply downward (-9.68% in the measured period), closing the gap toward the threshold. The signal is in the approach phase. Whether it completes the kiss and then separates — which would constitute full confirmation on the historical pattern — is the testable condition @DanCoinInvestor is flagging.
The distinction matters. A signal “in progress” and a signal “confirmed” carry different weight. The analyst’s post communicates the former — a high-probability structural setup based on historical pattern matching, not a completed reversal declaration.
What the Realized Price of $53,823 Tells Us
The Realized Price — currently $53,823.88 per the chart — represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation, weighted by when each coin last moved. Bitcoin trading at $83,032 means the market is approximately 54% above aggregate cost basis. This is not a signal in isolation, but it provides structural context: the market is not in deep aggregate loss territory at the current price. The on-chain loss percentage rising despite price being above realized price reflects the distribution of cost basis across the supply — a significant portion of coins were acquired at prices above $83,032 during the prior peak, pulling the Supply in Loss % higher even at current levels.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario — Pattern Completes and Lines Diverge
If the Supply in Profit % and Supply in Loss % complete their convergence at the 50% threshold and then begin separating — with profit supply rising and loss supply declining — the historical pattern described by @DanCoinInvestor would be confirmed. In the 2023 instance, this divergence initiated the uptrend cycle. The structural implication, per the analyst’s framework, is that a downtrend-to-uptrend transition would be underway. No specific price target is stated in the analyst’s note.
Bearish Scenario — Profit % Continues Lower Without Separation
If the Supply in Profit % continues declining past the 50% convergence zone without bouncing — meaning capitulation deepens further and the lines do not separate — the historical pattern would fail to complete on schedule. This would require Bitcoin’s price to fall materially further to push more supply into loss territory. The analyst does not specify a failure level in the published note.
For context on how other assets are positioned relative to their structural levels during this same period, the bearish setups flagged by analysts for LINK, ADA, and SOL illustrate that the broader crypto market is navigating similarly contested technical territory.
CryptoQuant analyst @DanCoinInvestor has identified a historically consistent on-chain signal: the convergence of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit % and Supply in Loss % near the 50% threshold has marked the bottom of every prior downtrend cycle in the data. The current reading places Supply in Profit at 69.15% — moving toward that threshold but not yet at it. The confirmation signal, per the analyst’s own framework, is the subsequent separation of the two lines after the kiss — the profit ratio turning back upward. That event has not yet occurred. Watch the Supply in Profit % for a confirmed trough near 50%, followed by a directional reversal upward, as the on-chain condition that would complete the historical pattern.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin is trading at $82,762 (−1.66% in 24h), with a $1.66T market cap, after failing to hold above the Active Realized PriceAlphractal flags the Active Realized Price — a cost-basis metric excluding dormant/lost coins — acting as resistance, not support, a bearish structural signalThe Active Realized Price sits near $83.44K per chart annotation — a sustained close above it is required to restore bullish on-chain structure
Bitcoin is trading at $82,762 — down 1.66% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of approximately $1.66 trillion. The decline is not just a price event. According to on-chain analytics platform Alphractal (@Alphractal), Bitcoin has failed to hold above its Active Realized Price — a refined cost-basis metric that strips out lost, deeply dormant, and permanently inactive coins. That failure carries specific structural implications that separate this moment from routine pullbacks.
Alphractal published the analysis on October 8, 2026, noting that Bitcoin “failed to hold above the Active Realized Price” — a level that, when acting as resistance rather than support, historically signals that the average active market participant is sitting at or above breakeven. That is a headwind, not a tailwind.
What the Active Realized Price Actually Measures
The traditional Realized Price — a widely cited on-chain metric — computes the average cost basis across all Bitcoin ever moved on-chain. It includes coins that have not moved in a decade, wallets that are likely lost forever, and supply held by long-term holders who are structurally insensitive to short-term price. This makes it a blunt instrument.
The Active Realized Price solves that problem. As Alphractal explains, it considers only coins classified as active supply — excluding lost, deeply dormant, and permanently inactive coins. By filtering the denominator to participants who are actually engaged with current market conditions, the Active Realized Price produces a cost-basis figure that more accurately reflects what today’s market participants paid for their Bitcoin. When price trades above it, active holders are in aggregate profit, reducing sell pressure. When price trades below it — or fails a retest of it — active holders are, on average, at or near breakeven or underwater. That shifts incentives toward distribution.
Chart 1 — Failed Breakout, Active Realized Price as Resistance
The first chart shared by Alphractal covers approximately January 2025 through October 2026. The white price line peaked mid-chart, declined sharply, then ranged sideways at lower levels before attempting a recovery. That recovery stalled. As the chart makes visually clear, Bitcoin’s price — marked at $83.44K in the chart annotation — failed to sustain a position above the Active Realized Price line. The level acted as resistance, not support. This is the structural read Alphractal is flagging: the metric that should be a floor is instead functioning as a ceiling. The chart also displays a reference level at $346,827 (top right label), which appears as a longer-term model coordinate on the same chart frame, and axis boundaries of $100K and $10K as display bounds.
Chart 1 of 2: Chart Analysis | Source: @Alphractal (X)
Chart 2 — Active Realized Price Convergence Since 2023
The second chart extends the view back to early 2023, capturing Bitcoin’s full cycle from the post-FTX lows through the 2024 bull run and subsequent consolidation. The green line — the Active Realized Price — curves steadily upward throughout, reflecting the rising cost basis of active market participants as new buyers entered at progressively higher prices during 2024. Bitcoin’s white price line rose sharply through 2024, peaked in late 2024 and early 2025, then declined and consolidated. The most recent candles in the chart sit near or slightly above the green line, at a chart-annotated price of $83.44K, with axis references at $139.69K (top right), $100K, and $20.131K (bottom right). The convergence of price toward the Active Realized Price line is the critical development — Alphractal’s signal is precisely that Bitcoin failed to hold above it, confirming the level has shifted from support to resistance in this timeframe.
Source: @Alphractal (X)
Why This Is Structurally Different From a Standard Pullback
Most pullbacks in an ongoing bull market see Bitcoin dip toward — but not decisively break below — its cost-basis metrics. The Active Realized Price failing as a retest level is a more bearish configuration than simply trading below it for the first time. A failed retest means price attempted to reclaim the metric, found sellers there, and was rejected. That sequence establishes the line as overhead resistance for the next attempted move up.
The practical implication: active participants who bought during the 2024 run-up — and who form the most liquid, price-sensitive cohort of the market — are on average at or above current prices. That supply overhang does not resolve quickly. It resolves either through time (as holders capitulate or the market absorbs selling) or through a decisive move that pushes price back above the Active Realized Price with enough momentum to convert resistance to support. Neither has happened yet. This dynamic is part of a broader context of Bitcoin’s recent volatility — as noted in Bitcoin’s sharp $2,000 drop that liquidated $400M in longs — and connects to the exchange flow picture documented in Bitcoin’s deeply negative 30-day exchange netflow.
The Level That Decides the Near-Term Thesis
The Active Realized Price, as annotated in Alphractal’s charts, corresponds to approximately the current trading range near $83.44K (chart-annotated value) versus Bitcoin’s live price of $82,762 at time of writing. The gap between where the metric sits and where Bitcoin is currently trading is narrow — but direction matters more than distance here.
A sustained close above the Active Realized Price would flip the structural read: active holders would move back into aggregate profit, removing the overhead supply dynamic and restoring the metric to its intended role as on-chain support. A continued failure — especially if Bitcoin moves further below the line — would deepen the bearish structure and increase the probability of further distribution from active supply. For broader context on where professional on-chain analysts currently sit, the CryptoQuant analyst consensus puts BTC at 82.5% bullish — a reading that now faces its own test given the Active Realized Price failure.
Bullish Scenario
Bitcoin reclaims and sustains a position above the Active Realized Price (approximately $83.44K per the chart annotation). That reclaim would shift active holders back into aggregate profit, converting the metric from resistance to support and removing the supply overhang that the current failed retest has created. A confirmed reclaim reopens the path toward the $100K axis range visible in both of Alphractal’s charts.
Bearish Scenario
Bitcoin continues to trade below the Active Realized Price without a meaningful retest attempt. That sustained failure deepens the structural headwind — active holders remain underwater or at breakeven on aggregate, incentivizing distribution. The bearish case accelerates if the Active Realized Price green line, which has been curving steadily upward since 2023, begins to catch down to current prices rather than price recovering up to it.
The Active Realized Price is not a sentiment indicator, a derivatives metric, or a price prediction. It is a cost-basis calculation for the segment of Bitcoin supply that is actively participating in markets today. Bitcoin’s failure to hold above it — flagged by Alphractal on October 8, 2026 — means the average active participant is at or above breakeven at current prices. That is the supply dynamic the market must resolve.
Watch the $83.44K Active Realized Price level: a sustained close above it confirms the failed retest was a temporary rejection and restores bullish on-chain structure; continued rejection below it keeps the overhead supply dynamic intact and signals the deeper consolidation is not yet finished.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
LINK breaks H&S neckline on 4H chart — @alicharts flags $12.39 target while price holds below $13.56ADA rejected at $0.29 ascending channel top — analyst targets $0.21 lower boundary if rejection holdsSOL confirms 4H breakdown below $117 — next targets $114 then $111 per @alicharts threadSOL trading at $115.31, down 2.97% in 24h, market cap $67.9B at time of writing
Three major altcoins are flashing simultaneous bearish technical setups — and one analyst is naming exact downside targets for each. Chainlink (LINK) is breaking below a Head and Shoulders neckline. Cardano (ADA) has been rejected at the top of an ascending channel. Solana (SOL) has confirmed a breakdown below key support, with the next level at $111. At the time of writing, Solana — whose live price is used as the tracked asset — is trading at $115.31, down 2.97% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of approximately $67.9 billion.
The alerts come from crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts), who published a five-part thread flagging what he characterizes as coordinated bearish setups across the altcoin market. His exact words on the thread’s opening: “THESE CRYPTOS ARE ABOUT TO DUMP.” Each setup carries a specific invalidation level and one or more downside targets — not vague directional bias, but named price zones.
Signal 1 — Chainlink (LINK): Head and Shoulders Neckline Break
Chainlink’s 4-hour chart, flagged by @alicharts, shows a classic Head and Shoulders pattern with the head peaking near $15.86 and the neckline running beneath two flanking shoulders. The current price on the chart is annotated at $13.39 — at or below the neckline break point. The analyst is explicit about the condition: “As long as price stays below $13.56, the pattern points toward $12.39, with $11.98 as the next level to watch if selling continues.”
The structure is straightforward. The $13.56 level is the invalidation threshold. A sustained close below it keeps the bearish pattern active. The primary measured-move target is $12.39. If selling accelerates through that level, $11.98 becomes the secondary target. The chart labels three sequential support zones beneath the neckline: $12.70, $12.39, and $11.98 — each representing a potential staging point for sellers. No upside targets are given; the analyst’s thesis is conditional on price remaining below $13.56.
LINK 4HR Chart Analysis | Source: @alicharts (X)
Signal 2 — Cardano (ADA): Ascending Channel Rejection
Cardano’s daily chart shows an ascending parallel channel spanning approximately August through October. Price reached the upper boundary near $0.29 and formed bearish rejection candles — a signal that the channel’s ceiling is acting as resistance rather than a breakout zone. At the time of the analysis, the chart annotates ADA’s price at $0.256. The analyst’s framing is conditional: “If that rejection holds, price could move toward the channel’s lower boundary.”
The lower boundary of the channel is labeled at $0.21 on the chart. A dotted midline runs through the structure, with $0.23 representing an intermediate level. The setup is a mean-reversion thesis within an established trend: price reached the upper extreme, rejected, and now faces a potential return toward the channel’s lower boundary. The setup is invalidated if ADA reclaims and holds above the $0.29 upper boundary.
Source: @alicharts (X)
Signal 3 — Solana (SOL): Support Breakdown Confirmed at $117
Solana’s 4-hour chart shows the sharpest and most immediate of the three setups. After ranging between support and resistance, SOL broke sharply below $117 on a 4-hour closing basis — the level the analyst identifies as the critical breakdown point. The chart annotates the current price at $115.97, with large bearish candles marking the breakdown sequence.
The analyst maps sequential downside targets below the breakdown: $114 is the immediate support. If $114 fails, $111 becomes the next target — flagged by an upward arrow on the chart’s lower right edge as a forward target zone. The chart explicitly labels $124, $120, $117, $115.97, $114, and $111 as the key price structure. The confirmed break of $117 activates the bearish sequence. A reclaim of $117 on a closing basis would negate the breakdown thesis.
For broader context on altcoin positioning, the CryptoQuant Analyst Consensus showing SOL at 92.9% bullish represents the on-chain counterargument — the technical breakdown and on-chain sentiment currently point in opposite directions for Solana.
Source: @alicharts (X)
What the Three Setups Share
Each of the three setups carries a named invalidation level, not just a directional bias. For LINK, it is $13.56. For ADA, it is a reclaim of $0.29. For SOL, it is a reclaim of $117 on a 4-hour close. @alicharts is not calling for indefinite downside on any of these — he is defining the precise condition under which the bearish case stays active. That specificity is what separates a technical breakdown call from a generic bearish take.
The timing of all three signals appearing simultaneously within a single analyst thread also matters for context. Altcoin weakness clustering across assets with different market caps and use cases — LINK at approximately $8–9B, ADA at multi-billion, SOL at $67.9B — suggests the pressure is sector-wide rather than asset-specific. Readers tracking recent altcoin volatility may also note the sharp divergence seen in altcoins posting 50%+ weekly gains — a reminder that the current market is highly selective.
Bullish Scenario
LINK reclaims $13.56 on a 4-hour close, invalidating the Head and Shoulders pattern and removing the measured-move target. ADA holds above $0.23 and breaks back toward $0.29, suggesting the channel rejection was a false breakdown. SOL reclaims $117, negating the confirmed breakdown and shifting structure back to range-bound.
Bearish Scenario
LINK sustains below $13.56, confirming progression toward $12.39 then $11.98. ADA’s rejection at $0.29 holds with follow-through toward $0.23 and $0.21. SOL loses $114 after the $117 breakdown, opening the move to $111 — the analyst’s stated secondary target.
Three altcoins, three distinct chart patterns, three sets of named price levels — all flagged in the same thread by @alicharts on October 8. The setups are conditional, not directional absolutes. For LINK, the number to watch is $13.56. For ADA, $0.29. For SOL, $117 — and below that, whether $114 holds or cedes to $111.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
NIGHT surged 51% in one week ($0.032 → $0.049) — a four-hour close above $0.052 is the breakout trigger per @alichartsSAND gained 52% ($0.043 → $0.065) and now prints a TD Sequential buy "9" near the low — mirroring the sell "9" that called the October 3 topZRO is pressing against the upper boundary of a rising parallel channel at $2.23 — rejection targets $2.10–$2.00; breakout above $2.30–$2.40 opens continuation
Three altcoins — Midnight ($NIGHT), The Sandbox ($SAND), and LayerZero ($ZRO) — each posted gains exceeding 50% in the seven days ending October 7, 2026. The moves are not random. Each asset is now at a technically defined decision point, with specific chart structures and indicator signals determining whether the rallies extend or reverse.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) flagged all three in a five-part thread, identifying the precise levels and signals traders should watch. What follows is a mechanism-first breakdown of each setup — price levels, signals, and the conditions that confirm or invalidate each thesis.
Signal 1 — Midnight ($NIGHT): 51% Rally, Now Testing Resistance at $0.052
Midnight is the strongest performer of the three. According to Martinez, $NIGHT rose approximately 51% over the past week, climbing from roughly $0.032 to $0.049. The token reached a high near $0.053 on October 3 before pulling back into a horizontal consolidation channel. At the time of writing, $NIGHT is trading at approximately $0.0492.
The 4-hour chart, as flagged by @alicharts, shows price oscillating between two clearly defined horizontal boundaries. The upper boundary — resistance — sits near $0.052. $NIGHT has tested that level twice without a sustained close above it. The shaded consolidation zone between the channel boundaries is the focal area of the setup. The lower boundary of the channel sits near $0.045, with a secondary support level visible near $0.040.
Chart Analysis | Source: @alicharts (X)
The trigger is unambiguous: Martinez states that a four-hour close above $0.052 is the confirmation level. That candle close — not an intraday wick — would signal a breakout from the consolidation range and open the path higher. Without that close, $NIGHT remains in a defined range with resistance intact. A breakdown below the lower channel boundary near $0.045 would negate the bullish structure and expose the $0.040 level as the next reference point.
Bullish Scenario
A four-hour close above $0.052 confirms the range breakout. This is the level Martinez explicitly identifies as the trigger for continuation of the rally that began at $0.032.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to close above $0.052 on a four-hour basis, followed by a break below $0.045, would invalidate the range support and put the $0.040 level in focus.
Signal 2 — The Sandbox ($SAND): TD Sequential Buy “9” Printed at the Low
The Sandbox gained approximately 52% over the same seven-day period, rising from $0.043 to around $0.065. At the time of writing, SAND is trading at approximately $0.0654. The rally was preceded and then interrupted by a TD Sequential sell “9” signal that appeared near the October 3 high — a bearish exhaustion count that correctly foreshadowed the pullback from the peak.
Now the chart shows the opposite signal. The 4-hour SAND chart flagged by @alicharts prints a TD Sequential buy “9” near the recent low, with the count now progressing to “2.” The TD Sequential counts nine consecutive bars closing lower to identify momentum exhaustion — not a support level, but a signal that selling pressure has run its course. The prior sell “9” at the top was accurate. The buy “9” at the bottom now raises the question of a symmetrical reversal.
Source: @alicharts (X)
The chart shows a rectangular box marking the prior high range, with a dotted horizontal line near the $0.040–$0.045 zone serving as a reference below current price. The count progression to “2” means the buy signal is in its early confirmation phase — a move back toward the prior high range near $0.080–$0.090 would be the natural target if the signal plays out. However, TD Sequential signals are exhaustion indicators, not guarantees — the count can reset if price makes a new low before the signal matures.
Bullish Scenario
The TD Sequential buy “9” matures as the count progresses past “2” without a new low. Price holds above the $0.040–$0.045 reference zone and begins recovering toward the prior high range near $0.080.
Bearish Scenario
A new low below the buy “9” candle resets the count, invalidating the exhaustion signal. The dotted reference line near $0.040 becomes the next area of interest.
Signal 3 — LayerZero ($ZRO): Rising Channel, Testing Upper Boundary at $2.23
LayerZero is trading at approximately $2.23 at the time of writing — and the 4-hour chart flagged by @alicharts shows ZRO pressing against the upper boundary of a clearly defined rising parallel channel. The channel spans the October 1–7 period with ascending price action bounded by two solid diagonal lines and a dashed midline.
Source: @alicharts (X)
The setup is a mean-reversion thesis within an ascending structure. ZRO has trended upward through the channel, but the current candles are approaching the upper boundary — the zone where prior touches have produced pullbacks toward the midline or lower boundary. Price labels on the chart run from $2.00 at the lower boundary to $2.40 at the upper boundary, with $2.10 and $2.30 as intermediate references. The analyst’s framing is that the upper channel boundary at current price levels represents a potential rejection point.
This is not a bearish call on ZRO’s broader trend — the channel itself is rising. It is a setup for a mean-reversion trade: rejection from the upper boundary sends price back toward the midline or lower boundary of the ascending structure. A sustained close above the upper boundary, however, would represent a breakout from the channel entirely and shift the setup from mean-reversion to continuation.
Bullish Scenario
ZRO closes above the upper channel boundary near $2.30–$2.40 on a four-hour basis, invalidating the mean-reversion setup and opening a channel breakout continuation move.
Bearish Scenario
Rejection from the upper boundary near $2.23–$2.30 sends ZRO back toward the channel midline near $2.10 or the lower boundary near $2.00.
Three Assets, Three Different Signals
What Martinez’s thread presents is not a single thesis — it is three structurally distinct setups. NIGHT is a range-consolidation breakout watch: the trigger is a four-hour close above $0.052. SAND is an exhaustion-reversal setup: the TD Sequential buy “9” mirrors the sell “9” that correctly called the top, now with the count at “2” and progressing. ZRO is a channel mean-reversion setup: price at the upper boundary with the question of rejection versus breakout unresolved.
Each setup has a specific invalidation. None of the three is a directional call without conditions. Traders watching these assets this week — alongside broader altcoin momentum tracked across other analyst-flagged setups and the OTHERS index structure — have specific binary levels to watch rather than directional opinions to hold.
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple hitting an 11-month high this week adds macro context: altcoin setups like these emerge in environments where Bitcoin’s miner revenue dynamics are shifting — a condition that historically precedes broader altcoin rotation.
For NIGHT, the line is $0.052 on a four-hour close. For SAND, the TD Sequential count at “2” must advance without a new low. For ZRO, the upper channel boundary near $2.23–$2.30 is the decision zone — and whichever side price breaks from will define the next directional leg for all three assets.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $84,055 (-1.77% 24h) with a $1.69T market cap as of October 7, 202630-day exchange netflow SMA sits at -3.12K BTC — persistently negative, per @AlphractalAnalyst explicitly warns: negative netflow is NOT a direct price appreciation signalWatch the 30-day SMA for a reversal toward zero — the first sign the accumulation dynamic is shifting
Bitcoin is trading at $84,055 — down 1.77% over the past 24 hours — with a market capitalization of approximately $1.69 trillion. Beneath the short-term price softness, one structural on-chain metric is telling a different story: the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s exchange netflow has remained deeply negative, sitting at -3.12K BTC as of October 7, 2026.
That reading was flagged by on-chain analytics account @Alphractal, which notes that “more BTC has been leaving exchanges than entering them recently” — and is careful to draw an important distinction before drawing any conclusion. The signal text explicitly states: “Negative netflows should not be interpreted as a direct signal for price appreciation.” That caveat is as important as the data itself.
What Exchange Netflow Actually Measures
Exchange netflow is the difference between BTC flowing onto exchanges and BTC flowing off exchanges over a given period. When the reading is negative, more Bitcoin is leaving exchange wallets than entering them — typically interpreted as holders withdrawing to self-custody rather than positioning to sell. The 30-day moving average smooths out daily noise and isolates the sustained directional trend in exchange supply.
The chart shared by @Alphractal shows the 30-day SMA of this metric spanning from approximately 2018 through October 2026. The Y-axis netflow readings range from a peak of +6.8K to a trough near -7.59K. The current reading of -3.12K sits in the lower half of that historical range, indicating a persistent and meaningful supply withdrawal from exchange venues — not a brief one-day anomaly.
Chart Analysis | Source: @Alphractal (X)
The long-term price line overlaid on the chart trends upward over the same span, while netflow has remained predominantly negative in recent periods. Positive inflow spikes do appear intermittently across the chart — but they are shorter-lived and smaller in magnitude relative to the sustained outflow trend currently in place.
What Persistent Negative Netflow Does — and Does Not — Confirm
@Alphractal is explicit: a negative netflow reading is not a purchase signal. The mechanism it confirms is supply reduction on trading venues. When BTC leaves exchanges in large volumes over sustained periods, the float available for immediate sale shrinks. That reduces the liquid sell-side supply on order books — which is a structural condition, not a directional prediction.
What it does confirm: holders are withdrawing BTC to cold storage or self-custody at a rate that exceeds new deposits. This is consistent with a cohort of market participants choosing not to position for near-term liquidation. It reflects conviction, not urgency to sell.
What it does not confirm: that price will rise, when it will rise, or by how much. Negative netflow has also persisted during periods of price consolidation and sideways action. The metric describes the supply environment — not the demand catalyst that would ultimately move price.
For context on where current on-chain sentiment sits more broadly, CryptoQuant’s multi-analyst consensus recently placed BTC at 82.5% bullish across their composite scoring framework — a separate dataset that complements the netflow picture without replacing it.
The Supply Compression Mechanism — Step by Step
The structural logic behind why sustained negative netflow matters runs as follows:
BTC exits exchanges at a net rate of approximately -3.12K per day (30-day SMA basis)Exchange-available float shrinks — fewer coins available for immediate market-order sellingSell-side liquidity thins on spot order books across major venuesMarginal demand — from new buyers, institutions, or ETF inflows — encounters less supply resistancePrice sensitivity increases — the same demand impulse produces a larger price impact than it would in a high-float environment
This is a conditions-setting mechanism. It does not generate the move — but it determines how forcefully the market responds when a demand catalyst does appear. That distinction is what @Alphractal’s note is specifically drawing attention to.
Earlier this year, on-chain data from multiple sources similarly suggested Bitcoin was building toward another $100K attempt — a thesis explored in depth here — with exchange supply compression cited as one of the structural preconditions.
Current Reading in Historical Context
The chart’s Y-axis captures the full historical range of this metric from 2018 to present. At -3.12K BTC, the 30-day SMA sits meaningfully below the zero line — not at the historical extreme of -7.59K, but comfortably in negative territory that has historically corresponded with accumulation phases. The chart’s peak positive reading of +6.8K, by contrast, appeared during periods of elevated sell pressure when participants were depositing heavily to exchanges.
The Bitcoin price line on the same chart is annotated at $85.77K as of the chart’s generation date — the live price at time of writing is $84,055, reflecting the session’s 1.77% decline. The chart’s price axis spans from $2,424 at the low end to $146,675 at the high — providing the full cycle context within which the current netflow reading is being evaluated.
What Would Change This Reading
A sustained reversal of the 30-day SMA toward zero — or into positive territory — would signal a shift: holders beginning to deposit BTC back onto exchanges at scale. That would indicate either profit-taking intent or repositioning for sale, and would represent a meaningful change in the supply dynamic currently in place.
Until that reversal occurs, the structural condition flagged by @Alphractal remains intact: exchange supply is contracting, and the float available to absorb any demand surge is smaller than it was during prior periods of heavy inflow. Macro catalysts remain the variable — historically, Bitcoin has responded sharply to macro events including election cycles, gaining 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% after each of the last three midterms — events where reduced exchange supply amplified the price response.
Bullish Scenario
If a demand catalyst emerges — institutional inflows, ETF volume acceleration, or a macro risk-on trigger — the current thin exchange float means the price response could be disproportionately sharp relative to the demand volume. A sustained hold of the 30-day SMA below -2K BTC would keep this structural condition intact.
Bearish Scenario
If the 30-day netflow SMA reverses toward zero or positive, that signals holders are returning BTC to exchanges at scale — a structural deterioration of the accumulation thesis. The metric to track: DeFiLlama and CryptoQuant’s exchange netflow dashboards update this figure in near real time.
Bitcoin’s exchange netflow remains at -3.12K BTC on a 30-day moving average basis — a sustained supply withdrawal that compresses the float available on trading venues without itself being a price signal. @Alphractal’s note is precise in its scope: this metric describes a structural supply condition, not a directional trigger. The condition is present. Whether a demand catalyst arrives to interact with it — and what form that catalyst takes — is the variable that determines whether the compressed supply environment translates into price. Watch the 30-day SMA: a sustained move toward zero is the first signal that the accumulation dynamic is reversing.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
ZRO is trading at ~$2.21, pressing against the upper boundary of a weekly Descending Broadening Wedge per @CryptoBullet1Wedge measured move targets $6.00 (+171% from current price) as the first technical destinationMacro targets: $14, $20, and $32 across 2027-2029 — representing up to +1,348% from $2.21Bearish invalidation: weekly close back below the breakout zone near $1.90 resets the structure
LayerZero (ZRO) is printing one of the more consequential pattern breakouts in the current altcoin cycle — a confirmed exit from a Descending Broadening Wedge on the weekly chart, a structure that, when resolved to the upside, has historically produced outsized multi-stage moves. At the time of writing, ZRO is trading at approximately $2.21, pressing against the upper boundary of a formation that has contained price since the asset’s post-launch decline.
The setup is being flagged by analyst @CryptoBullet1, who posted the macro chart on October 6, 2026, stating: “$ZRO is currently breaking out of this huge Descending Broadening Wedge. I’m still pretty bullish on $ZRO, I think it will be a great runner in 2027-2029.” His price sequence is explicit: a wedge target at $6, followed by macro targets at $14, $20, and $32. These are not short-term swing levels — they represent a multi-year thesis extending through 2027-2029.
The Descending Broadening Wedge — What It Is and Why It Matters
A Descending Broadening Wedge is defined by two diverging, downward-sloping trendlines — a falling upper resistance and a falling lower support — with price oscillating between them in increasingly wide swings. The pattern is counterintuitive: the expanding volatility and consecutive lower lows create the appearance of accelerating weakness, yet the structure is classified as a bullish reversal formation. The mechanism is capitulation exhaustion — sellers repeatedly overextend, buyers absorb at progressively wider levels, and the eventual breakout above the upper trendline releases the compressed energy from the entire formation.
On the ZRO weekly chart shared by @CryptoBullet1, the Fibonacci grid overlaid on the pattern assigns the current breakout zone near the 0.618 retracement level — a cluster the chart labels between approximately $1.90 and $2.40. The current price of ~$2.21 sits inside this breakout zone. The chart explicitly labels three macro target coordinates: $14.35 (Macro Target 1), $20.20 (Macro Target 2), and $32.50 (Macro Target 3) — with the analyst’s stated figures of $14, $20, and $32 aligning closely with these chart annotations.
ZRO/TetherUS Analysis | Source: @CryptoBullet1 (X)
The Price Sequence — Wedge Target First, Macro Targets Second
@CryptoBullet1 structures the thesis in two distinct phases. The first is the wedge measured move — a near-term target of $6.00, derived from the height of the broadening wedge projected from the breakout point. At $2.21, that represents a move of approximately +171% from current price to the first technical target. The chart’s “Wedge Target” arrow explicitly points to the $6.00 level.
The second phase is the macro sequence: $14 → $20 → $32, which the analyst frames as the 2027-2029 runner thesis. These are not sequential price targets that must be hit in order within a short window — they represent staging posts in a multi-year advance. From $2.21, the move to $32 would constitute a gain of approximately +1,348% from the current price. The chart’s Fibonacci structure places $32.50 near the 1.618 extension level of the prior range — a measurement consistent with how broadening wedge breakouts are conventionally projected.
Why a Broadening Wedge Breakout Carries Weight on the Weekly Timeframe
Pattern significance scales with timeframe. A broadening wedge on a 15-minute chart is noise. On the weekly chart — where each candle represents seven days of price discovery — the structure has been building for months. The longer the compression, the more supply has been absorbed at progressively lower prices, and the larger the potential reaction when the upper trendline is cleared. @CryptoBullet1’s use of the weekly chart is deliberate: this is a macro setup, not a scalp. His 2027-2029 timeframe for the macro targets is consistent with the scale of the formation being broken.
The Fibonacci retracement grid on the chart — spanning from the 0 base level to the full 1.618 extension — gives each target coordinate a structural anchor. The wedge target at $6 sits near the 1.272 extension zone visible on the chart’s price axis. The macro targets at $14.35, $20.20, and $32.50 correspond to the chart’s labeled zones at progressively higher extensions.
Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above the wedge’s upper trendline — confirmed at current price levels above $2.21 — opens the measured move to $6.00 as the first technical destination. Sustained momentum through $6 would then target the macro sequence: $14.35, $20.20, and $32.50 across the 2027-2029 window, per @CryptoBullet1’s thesis.
Bearish Scenario
A weekly close back inside the wedge — a rejection below the upper trendline with price returning below the breakout zone near $1.90 — would invalidate the current breakout attempt and reset the formation. In that case, the lower boundary of the wedge near $0.50–$0.61 (as labeled on the chart axis) would become the next structural test.
The One Variable the Chart Cannot Answer
Pattern analysis identifies structure — it does not guarantee continuation. The Descending Broadening Wedge breakout on the ZRO weekly chart is a technical event. Whether it sustains depends on whether demand for LayerZero’s cross-chain messaging infrastructure grows in the 2026-2029 cycle. @CryptoBullet1’s confidence in ZRO as a “great runner in 2027-2029” is explicitly a fundamental bet alongside the technical setup — not purely a chart call. The wedge provides the setup; protocol adoption and ecosystem expansion provide the fuel. Traders should track whether the $6 wedge target holds as support on any retest before applying the macro targets.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.
**Also Read: **NVDA Breakout Confirmed — Analyst Sets $280 Target

Key Highlights
Bitcoin is trading at $86,130 (+0.05% 24h) with a $1.72T market cap as the midterm pattern resurfacesBitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms — per @xwinfinance via CryptoQuantAll three post-midterm windows showed rising active addresses alongside price — currently at 558.6K on CryptoQuant's chartThe pattern is three-for-three across three cycles; the next U.S. midterm window opens November 2026
Bitcoin is trading at $86,130 — up 0.05% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.72 trillion. That current softness sits against a three-cycle historical pattern that is difficult to dismiss: every time the United States has held midterm elections since 2014, Bitcoin has posted a double-digit gain in the twelve months that followed.
The pattern was surfaced by analyst @xwinfinance and published by CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com): “Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.” Three elections. Three gains. The smallest was nearly 25%. The largest was almost 93%.
Signal 1 — The S&P 500 Post-Midterm Pattern
The first chart shared by CryptoQuant shows the S&P 500 from approximately 2017 through October 2026, with two red rectangles overlaid on the twelve months following the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. The index is currently labeled at 7,791.59 on the chart’s right axis. Both highlighted windows — 2019 and 2023 — show relative consolidation phases within a broader long-term uptrend, establishing that post-midterm periods have historically represented constructive environments for risk assets broadly, not just Bitcoin.
Chart 1 of 2: Chart Analysis | Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The mechanism is political, not monetary. U.S. midterm elections historically reduce legislative gridlock uncertainty. When one party controls Congress and another the White House, major fiscal disruptions become harder to pass — markets tend to price in policy stability. That stability environment has historically favored equities and, by extension, Bitcoin as a macro-correlated risk asset during the twelve months that follow.
Signal 2 — Bitcoin’s Three-for-Three Midterm Track Record
The second chart plots Bitcoin price against active addresses from 2010 through 2026. Three red rectangles mark the twelve-month windows after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. In each window, both the price line and active addresses rose. The chart’s current price label reads $85,736K — consistent with the live price at time of writing. Active addresses are labeled at 558.6K, providing network activity context alongside the price data.
Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The exact numbers from the analyst’s note:
Midterm Year 12-Month Bitcoin Gain (Post-Election) 2014 +24.5% 2018 +44.9% 2022 +92.3%
Source: @xwinfinance via CryptoQuant
The 2022 cycle is the most recent data point. The November 2022 midterms occurred at one of Bitcoin’s lowest points of that bear market — below $17,000. The 92.3% gain in the following twelve months brought Bitcoin back toward the $33,000 range by November 2023. That recovery was driven by genuine accumulation, the Bitcoin spot ETF filing cycle, and the broader macro pivot that characterized late 2023 — not purely the midterm calendar effect. The pattern held regardless of its internal drivers.
The 2024 midterms have not yet occurred — the next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026. The current signal from the analyst’s framing is based on the post-2022 midterm window, which by this reading places Bitcoin within or nearing the end of the twelve-month post-midterm strength period that began in November 2022. The 92.3% twelve-month gain that followed the 2022 midterms is the most recent completed instance of this pattern. Traders tracking the 2026 midterm cycle would be watching for a new twelve-month window beginning after November 2026.
What the Pattern Says — And What It Doesn’t
Three instances is not a law. It is a track record. Every data point in the set shows a positive outcome, and the magnitude has increased with each cycle — from 24.5% to 44.9% to 92.3%. But the sample size means that a single non-confirming cycle would bring the hit rate to 75%, not invalidate the thesis entirely.
The active addresses data in the second chart matters here. Each of the three post-midterm windows also saw elevated network activity — not just price appreciation. Network activity rising alongside price is a structurally different signal than price rising on purely speculative positioning. The 558.6K active addresses currently labeled on the chart provide a baseline for monitoring whether network engagement is expanding or contracting as the next cycle window opens.
What the pattern does not say: it does not specify the starting price for the twelve-month window, the peak timing within that window, or whether gains accrue linearly or in compressed bursts. The 2022-cycle gain of 92.3% was heavily back-weighted toward late 2023 and early 2024 — not spread evenly across twelve months.
Bullish Scenario
If the post-2022 midterm pattern continues to compound — with the 2026 cycle producing a third successive gain above the 44.9% 2018 benchmark — Bitcoin entering its next post-midterm window at current prices near $85,771 would represent a structurally favorable entry context. The analyst’s stated range of 24.5%–92.3% across three prior cycles defines the historical performance envelope.
Bearish Scenario
The pattern has no confirmed failure mode from prior cycles. The risk is that the 2026 midterm window begins under materially different macro conditions — elevated real rates, dollar strength, or a risk-off regime — that override the political-calendar effect. No specific invalidation level is stated in the analyst’s note, and none should be inferred from the chart alone.
Bitcoin’s three-for-three midterm track record — 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% across 2014, 2018, and 2022 — is a documented pattern with increasing magnitude and corroborating network activity data in each instance. CryptoQuant and @xwinfinance are not projecting a fourth repetition: they are presenting the historical record. At $85,771 with active addresses at 558.6K, the metric to track heading into the 2026 midterm window is whether network activity follows price — as it did in all three prior confirmed instances.
Watch active addresses at the 558.6K baseline as the first confirmation level for whether the pattern’s network component is setting up for the next cycle.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin is trading at $85,771 (-0.70% 24h) with a $1.72T market cap as the midterm pattern resurfacesBitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms — per @xwinfinance via CryptoQuantAll three post-midterm windows showed rising active addresses alongside price — currently at 558.6K on CryptoQuant's chartThe pattern is three-for-three across three cycles; the next U.S. midterm window opens November 2026
Bitcoin is trading at $85,771 — down 0.70% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.72 trillion. That current softness sits against a three-cycle historical pattern that is difficult to dismiss: every time the United States has held midterm elections since 2014, Bitcoin has posted a double-digit gain in the twelve months that followed.
The pattern was surfaced by analyst @xwinfinance and published by CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com): “Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.” Three elections. Three gains. The smallest was nearly 25%. The largest was almost 93%.
Signal 1 — The S&P 500 Post-Midterm Pattern
The first chart shared by CryptoQuant shows the S&P 500 from approximately 2017 through October 2026, with two red rectangles overlaid on the twelve months following the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. The index is currently labeled at 7,791.59 on the chart’s right axis. Both highlighted windows — 2019 and 2023 — show relative consolidation phases within a broader long-term uptrend, establishing that post-midterm periods have historically represented constructive environments for risk assets broadly, not just Bitcoin.
Chart 1 of 2: Chart Analysis | Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The mechanism is political, not monetary. U.S. midterm elections historically reduce legislative gridlock uncertainty. When one party controls Congress and another the White House, major fiscal disruptions become harder to pass — markets tend to price in policy stability. That stability environment has historically favored equities and, by extension, Bitcoin as a macro-correlated risk asset during the twelve months that follow.
Signal 2 — Bitcoin’s Three-for-Three Midterm Track Record
The second chart plots Bitcoin price against active addresses from 2010 through 2026. Three red rectangles mark the twelve-month windows after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. In each window, both the price line and active addresses rose. The chart’s current price label reads $85,736K — consistent with the live price at time of writing. Active addresses are labeled at 558.6K, providing network activity context alongside the price data.
Source: @cryptoquant_com (X)
The exact numbers from the analyst’s note:
Midterm Year 12-Month Bitcoin Gain (Post-Election) 2014 +24.5% 2018 +44.9% 2022 +92.3%
Source: @xwinfinance via CryptoQuant
The 2022 cycle is the most recent data point. The November 2022 midterms occurred at one of Bitcoin’s lowest points of that bear market — below $17,000. The 92.3% gain in the following twelve months brought Bitcoin back toward the $33,000 range by November 2023. That recovery was driven by genuine accumulation, the Bitcoin spot ETF filing cycle, and the broader macro pivot that characterized late 2023 — not purely the midterm calendar effect. The pattern held regardless of its internal drivers.
The 2024 midterms have not yet occurred — the next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026. The current signal from the analyst’s framing is based on the post-2022 midterm window, which by this reading places Bitcoin within or nearing the end of the twelve-month post-midterm strength period that began in November 2022. The 92.3% twelve-month gain that followed the 2022 midterms is the most recent completed instance of this pattern. Traders tracking the 2026 midterm cycle would be watching for a new twelve-month window beginning after November 2026.
What the Pattern Says — And What It Doesn’t
Three instances is not a law. It is a track record. Every data point in the set shows a positive outcome, and the magnitude has increased with each cycle — from 24.5% to 44.9% to 92.3%. But the sample size means that a single non-confirming cycle would bring the hit rate to 75%, not invalidate the thesis entirely.
The active addresses data in the second chart matters here. Each of the three post-midterm windows also saw elevated network activity — not just price appreciation. Network activity rising alongside price is a structurally different signal than price rising on purely speculative positioning. The 558.6K active addresses currently labeled on the chart provide a baseline for monitoring whether network engagement is expanding or contracting as the next cycle window opens.
What the pattern does not say: it does not specify the starting price for the twelve-month window, the peak timing within that window, or whether gains accrue linearly or in compressed bursts. The 2022-cycle gain of 92.3% was heavily back-weighted toward late 2023 and early 2024 — not spread evenly across twelve months.
Bullish Scenario
If the post-2022 midterm pattern continues to compound — with the 2026 cycle producing a third successive gain above the 44.9% 2018 benchmark — Bitcoin entering its next post-midterm window at current prices near $85,771 would represent a structurally favorable entry context. The analyst’s stated range of 24.5%–92.3% across three prior cycles defines the historical performance envelope.
Bearish Scenario
The pattern has no confirmed failure mode from prior cycles. The risk is that the 2026 midterm window begins under materially different macro conditions — elevated real rates, dollar strength, or a risk-off regime — that override the political-calendar effect. No specific invalidation level is stated in the analyst’s note, and none should be inferred from the chart alone.
Bitcoin’s three-for-three midterm track record — 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% across 2014, 2018, and 2022 — is a documented pattern with increasing magnitude and corroborating network activity data in each instance. CryptoQuant and @xwinfinance are not projecting a fourth repetition: they are presenting the historical record. At $85,771 with active addresses at 558.6K, the metric to track heading into the 2026 midterm window is whether network activity follows price — as it did in all three prior confirmed instances.
Watch active addresses at the 558.6K baseline as the first confirmation level for whether the pattern’s network component is setting up for the next cycle.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades at $85,803, range-bound between $83,000 and $86,700 for two consecutive weeksURPD data shows 1.59 million BTC accumulated between $83,307–$84,569 — the densest supply cluster on the distribution chartWhales added 14,335 BTC (~$1.22B) since October 1, per Santiment data cited by @alicharts$86,700 is the confirmed breakout trigger; loss of $83,000 opens path to $76,996
Bitcoin is trading at $85,803 — down 0.62% over the past 24 hours — but the two-week sideways grind between $83,000 and $86,700 is beginning to look less like indecision and more like accumulation. Three independent on-chain signals are converging to suggest the next directional move may be higher.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts) published a five-part thread on October 6, 2026, asking directly: “Bitcoin: Another Attempt at $100,000?” His answer isn’t speculative — it’s grounded in URPD distribution data, whale accumulation figures, and price structure analysis pointing to a technically defined breakout level.
Signal 1 — Price Structure: Two Weeks Inside a Defined Range
The 4-hour chart shared by @alicharts reveals a horizontal consolidation that has now persisted for approximately two weeks. Bitcoin has oscillated repeatedly between $83,000 support and $86,700 resistance, with candles rejecting at both extremes without establishing a sustained breakout in either direction. A dotted reference line near $85,800 sits just below current price, marking the midpoint of the range’s upper half.
BTC 4HR Chart Analysis | Source: @alicharts (X)
What the range itself communicates is straightforward: neither bulls nor bears have achieved decisive control. What makes the range relevant now is what’s happening underneath it on-chain — which is where Martinez’s next two signals carry the analytical weight.
Signal 2 — URPD: 1.59 Million BTC Traded Between $83,300 and $84,600
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) maps the price at which existing Bitcoin supply last changed hands. It answers a specific question: where do current holders have their cost basis? The concentration at any level indicates how many coins were acquired there — and consequently, how motivated holders at that level are to defend it.
Martinez’s URPD chart shows the two longest bars in the entire distribution sitting between $83,307 and $84,569, each approaching 600,000 BTC. Combined, this zone represents approximately 1.59 million BTC traded within a $1,300 price band — the densest supply cluster visible on the chart. A hollow bar at $85,831 marks the approximate current price level, sitting just above the cluster. Bars above $92,143 thin out considerably, indicating comparatively sparse supply in that zone.
Source: @alicharts (X)
The mechanism is direct: the larger the coin volume accumulated at a price band, the stronger the collective incentive for those holders to defend that band. With 1.59 million BTC having last traded between $83,300 and $84,600, a pullback into that zone would confront one of the heaviest demand concentrations in Bitcoin’s current supply distribution. That is not a soft floor — it is a structurally defined support zone with identifiable on-chain depth.
Signal 3 — Whale Accumulation: 14,335 BTC Added Since October 1
The third signal operates at the participant level. Santiment data cited by Martinez shows Bitcoin whales — large-balance holders tracked by on-chain monitoring — added 14,335 BTC since October 1, 2026, equivalent to approximately $1.22 billion at current prices. The whale holdings bar chart shows an ascending staircase pattern across October 3 through October 5, with holdings reaching the tallest bar on day 5 before a slight pullback on day 6 — while remaining elevated relative to the start of the tracked period.
Source: @alicharts (X)
Whale accumulation during a sideways range carries a specific interpretation: large holders are not waiting for confirmation of a breakout before positioning. They are building exposure while retail sentiment remains neutral and price is range-bound. This behavior — accumulation without a visible catalyst — is consistent with pre-breakout positioning rather than reactive buying. As Martinez frames it, whales are “positioning for that possibility” of a move toward $100,000. For further context on Bitcoin’s broader cycle positioning, see Bitcoin Fractal Cycle Flags Distribution Phase — Oct 2026 Bottom Projected.
The Breakout Level and What Opens Above It
Martinez’s thread identifies $86,700 as the specific level Bitcoin must clear for the on-chain accumulation thesis to translate into price action. That is not a round number or a speculative target — it is the upper boundary of the two-week range that has repeatedly rejected upward attempts. A confirmed break above $86,700 would mean escaping the consolidation that has contained Bitcoin since late September.
The URPD data above $92,143 shows significantly thinner supply, which means fewer holders with cost bases in that zone and therefore less structural overhead resistance between $86,700 and the $92,000–$95,000 region. The absence of dense supply clusters in that range is itself a factor — thin overhead supply is a prerequisite for rapid price moves, not a guarantee of them.
For a broader view of Bitcoin’s upside structure across this cycle, CoinsProbe has previously mapped the Bitcoin Rising Channel targeting $190K alongside ETH, XRP, and SOL projections.
Bullish Scenario
Bitcoin holds the $83,300–$84,600 URPD support zone on any pullback, and subsequently breaks above $86,700 with sustained closing price action above that level. This would exit the two-week consolidation range, confirm that whale accumulation was correctly anticipatory, and open a path through the thin supply zone above $92,143 toward $100,000.
Bearish Scenario
Bitcoin loses the $83,000 range floor. A confirmed break below $83,000 invalidates the support zone thesis — 1.59 million BTC in the $83,300–$84,600 cluster would shift from a defended support to a source of realized-loss selling pressure. The next meaningful URPD cluster visible on the chart sits near $76,996, which would become the reference level for the subsequent support structure.
Three Signals, One Conclusion
The three signals Martinez identifies are not independent bullish claims stacked together — they are a coherent structural picture. The range ($83,000–$86,700) defines the battlefield. The URPD cluster (1.59 million BTC at $83,300–$84,600) establishes what is being defended. The whale accumulation (14,335 BTC, ~$1.22B since October 1) identifies who is doing the defending. Together, they describe a market where large holders are absorbing supply inside a defined range, with on-chain data suggesting the range resolves upward rather than downward — conditional on $86,700 breaking.
The on-chain setup is in place. The price has not yet confirmed it. Bitcoin at $85,803 sits $897 below the breakout trigger at $86,700 and $17,197 above the structural floor at $83,000. Whether the next $100,000 attempt begins here will be answered at $86,700 — and, if it fails, retested at $83,300.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Wallet 0x13da opens 5x long on 164,642 SOL worth $19.78M, per LookonchainTrader holds a 78% win rate on SOL with $4.74M total realized profit across trading historyLiquidation price set at $99.68 — the level that invalidates the entire $19.78M position
A tracked perpetuals trader with a documented 78% win rate on Solana has re-entered the market with a high-conviction leveraged long — placing $19.78M on the line at 5x leverage, per Lookonchain.
Wallet 0x13da9d69a9b8a28495ade07d3ff1c61d024808be, tracked via Hyperbot, opened the position on 164,642 SOL at current market prices. The trader’s total realized profit across their SOL trading history stands at $4.74 million, according to the same on-chain record.
The Position — Size, Leverage, and Liquidation
The structure of the trade is straightforward. The trader committed 164,642 SOL at 5x leverage, creating a notional exposure of $19.78 million. At that leverage ratio, the liquidation price sits at $99.68 — meaning a sustained move below that level would force an automatic position close.
Parameter Detail Wallet 0x13da9d69a9b8a28495ade07d3ff1c61d024808be Position Size 164,642 SOL Notional Value $19.78M Leverage 5x Direction Long Liquidation Price $99.68 Win Rate (SOL) 78% Total Profit (SOL) $4.74M
Source: Hyperbot via Lookonchain
Trader 0x13da | Source: @lookonchain (X)
Why Track Record Matters Here
A 78% win rate across a documented SOL trading history is not a small sample coincidence — it reflects a trader who has consistently timed entries. The $4.74M total profit confirms the edge is real and has compounded over multiple cycles. When a trader with this profile re-enters at scale, the position size itself becomes an on-chain signal worth monitoring.
SOL Positions Win Rate | Source: @lookonchain (X)
What This Trade Is — and What It Isn’t
This is a leveraged perpetuals position opened by a single tracked wallet. It is not a spot accumulation event, not an institutional disclosure, and not a protocol-level development for Solana. The position does not tell us where SOL is going — it tells us where one high-conviction trader with a strong track record has placed a directional bet and at exactly what price their thesis gets invalidated.
The $99.68 liquidation level is the number that matters most. If SOL trades above that level, the position remains live. If price declines to $99.68 on a sustained basis, the 164,642 SOL gets liquidated — which itself could create downside pressure at that level depending on market depth. Readers following this trade should monitor the Hyperbot profile page for any changes to position status.
The $19.78M long from wallet 0x13da is the clearest on-chain signal of near-term directional conviction in SOL available right now. The trade is live, the liquidation level is public, and the trader’s 78% historical win rate on SOL gives the position contextual weight. Whether this becomes trade number N+1 in the win column will be answered at $99.68 — the exact level where the position stops existing.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Always refer to Pi Network's official channels for the most current partnership and protocol information.

Key Highlights
Dormant ENA whale 0xa554 sold 37.725M ENA ($9.25M) via BitGo after 1+ year of inactivityWallet still holds 119.82M ENA worth $29.6M — distribution is ongoing, not completeInstitutional routing via BitGo signals a structured, staged sell-down rather than a panic exitSecond confirmed sale from this wallet; prior move sent $6.98M to Binance
Ethena (ENA) is back under on-chain scrutiny as a previously dormant large holder reactivates and continues offloading a significant position. The move, flagged by Lookonchain, adds fresh distribution pressure to an asset that has seen elevated whale activity over recent weeks.
The Move:
Wallet 0xa554 — dormant for over a year — sold another 37.725 million ENA worth $9.25 million via BitGo approximately 12 hours ago, according to Lookonchain. Despite this latest sale, the wallet still retains a substantial position: 119.82 million ENA valued at approximately $29.6 million at current prices. The use of BitGo — an institutional-grade custody and settlement platform — indicates this is not a retail actor. The wallet’s dormancy for over a year before resuming sales suggests this holder has been strategically timing the distribution rather than panic-selling.
ENA Whale Deposit | Source: @lookonchain (X)
What This Signals:
On-chain analysts interpret sustained, staged selling from a long-dormant wallet as a structured distribution event — not a one-off liquidation. The $9.25 million sale is the second in a series; this same wallet previously broke its year-long silence by sending $6.98M to Binance while still holding $36.74M. The pattern — repeated sales in tranches via institutional infrastructure — points to a holder methodically reducing exposure rather than exiting entirely. With 119.82 million ENA ($29.6 million) still in the wallet, the distribution is ongoing. The key level to monitor is whether spot bids can absorb continued sell pressure from this address without breaking near-term price support. A sustained series of BitGo-routed exits from 0xa554 would increase overhead supply and complicate any near-term recovery thesis for ENA.
Forward Outlook:
Given that 0xa554 still controls a position nearly three times larger than its most recent sale, further tranches cannot be ruled out. On-chain watchers should monitor whether the wallet initiates additional transfers to BitGo or routes tokens directly to centralized exchanges — the latter would signal accelerated selling intent. Confirmation that selling pressure is easing would require the wallet to show no outbound activity for an extended period, or for wallet inflows to emerge.
For broader context on ENA’s fundamental backdrop, ENA previously surged 24.8% following Ethena’s Binance equity perps deal, and technical analysis has flagged a bearish RSI divergence as a near-term risk ahead of a potential new ATH. The whale data, taken alongside the technical picture, warrants close attention in the sessions ahead.
**Disclaimer: **This article is for informational purposes only. Always refer to Pi Network's official channels for the most current partnership and protocol information.