Unpredictable

China is still printing money
In September 2026, China’s M2 money supply reached approximately 359.6 trillion yuan (People’s Bank of China). At current exchange rates, this equals roughly $50 to 54 trillion — more than 2.2 times the U.S. M2 of $23.4 trillion.
When China expands liquidity, a large portion of that money eventually flows into real assets. China remains the world’s largest buyer of industrial metals.
The paper market reality
Commercial traders on COMEX still hold large net short positions in silver. According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission – Commitment of Traders Report, the commercial net short stands around 35,000 to 40,000 contracts (each contract = 5,000 ounces). Some claim the short position exceeds 4 billion ounces, but official data does not support such extreme figures. Even so, the paper market remains heavily leveraged relative to physical supply.
Global annual mine production is only 840 to 850 million ounces (Silver Institute / Metals Focus World Silver Survey 2026). The market has been in a structural deficit for several years.
The January peak was not the end
Silver peaked near $121 in January 2026. Gold peaked near $5,500–5,600. Both metals then suffered deep corrections (silver over 50%, gold around 30%). Sharp corrections after parabolic moves are common in secular bull markets.
Solar, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI infrastructure continue to support industrial demand for silver.
The setup ahead
Strong Chinese demand + limited physical supply + leveraged short positions create conditions for a potential re-pricing and short squeeze.
Paper is unlimited. Physical metal is not.
November through January have historically been strong months for precious metals. Both gold and silver currently sit in heavily oversold territory.
Final thought
Central banks can print currency.
They cannot print gold or silver.
The long-term drivers — money supply growth, physical deficits, and industrial demand — remain intact.
This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk carefully.
References:
People’s Bank of China
Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stock Measures
Commodity Futures Trading Commission – Commitment of Traders Report
Silver Institute / Metals Focus World Silver Survey 2026
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GOLD NEXT WEEK — Don't Just Watch the Chart, Watch Smart Money Too
Gold showed another strong recovery last week, but now price is sitting at a very important area where Technical Analysis + COT Positioning + Futures Contracts are giving us a very interesting picture.
Current Zone: ~$4,375
TECHNICAL PICTURE
The Daily and H4 structures are still bullish, but Gold is now trading just below a critical resistance level.
$4,428 — KEY DECISION LEVEL
Above this level:
$4,450 — Breakout Zone $4,500 $4,545–$4,550 $4,595–$4,610
However, if Gold gets rejected from the $4,428–$4,450 area, the important downside support zones are:
$4,310–$4,320 $4,265–$4,285 $4,195–$4,200
COT REPORT — WHAT IS SMART MONEY DOING?
According to the latest CFTC COT Report dated August 11, 2026, COMEX Gold Futures show:
Total Open Interest: 400,309 contracts
Non-Commercial Long: 250,936 contracts
Non-Commercial Short: 32,996 contracts
This gives speculators an approximate NET LONG position of:
217,940 contracts
The most important point is that Non-Commercial Long positions increased by +23,923 contracts in just one week.
Open Interest also increased by +28,758 contracts.
This suggests that the current bullish move in Gold is supported by strong speculative and institutional positioning.
GOLD FUTURES CONTRACTS — THIS IS WHERE THE REAL GAME IS
A standard COMEX Gold Futures contract represents 100 troy ounces.
With around 400K contracts currently in Open Interest, there is significant positioning in the Gold futures market.
But here is the key point:
Rising Open Interest does NOT automatically mean bullishness.
Price ↑ + Open Interest ↑ = New positions entering the market and potential trend strength.
Price ↑ + Open Interest ↓ = The move may be driven by short covering.
That is why next week we should not focus only on Gold's price.
We need to watch three things together:
PRICE + OPEN INTEREST + COT POSITIONING
NEXT WEEK — THE REAL TEST IS $4,428
If:
$4,428 Breaks → H4 closes above $4,450 → Price retests the breakout area
Then the path could open for the Bulls toward:
$4,500 $4,550 $4,600+
But...
If:
$4,428–$4,450 → Rejection
And then:
$4,310 → Break
The correction could extend toward:
$4,285 $4,265 $4,200
MY VERDICT
COT Positioning = Bullish
Futures Positioning = Strong Bullish
H4 Structure = Bullish
D1 Structure = Bullish
BUT...
$4,428–$4,450 = MAJOR RESISTANCE
So, in my view:
BULLISH ABOVE $4,450
RANGE / DECISION ZONE AROUND $4,375–$4,428
CORRECTION RISK BELOW $4,310
Gold's next major move will not come from prediction.
It will come from CONFIRMATION.
And remember:
COT tells us where the big players are positioned.
The Chart tells us where price wants to go.
Open Interest tells us how much positioning is building inside the market.
NEXT WEEK — KEEP YOUR EYES ON $4,428
Trade the Setup. Control the Risk. Follow the Data. Don't Trade Emotion.
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