For-Exx Kripto

A Bigger Risk for U.S. Stocks: The Debt Burden of AI Investments
As renewed inflation in the United States increases pressure on equity markets, a deeper risk in the technology sector is becoming increasingly apparent. The growing need for borrowing to finance artificial intelligence investments, combined with rising interest rates, is driving up corporate costs. The market's main concern is not so much whether demand for AI will continue, but rather how sustainable the massive investments being made to meet that demand really are.
The annual U.S. consumer inflation rate rose to 3.7% in September, strengthening expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates elevated for longer and consider another rate hike. Rising Treasury yields have created an additional source of pressure, particularly for technology and infrastructure companies that depend on external financing.
The Cost of the AI Race Is Rising
Technology companies are investing billions of dollars in data centers, advanced processors, and energy infrastructure to meet growing demand for AI applications. However, these investments require substantial amounts of capital before the resulting revenues are fully realized.
The increasing reliance of major technology companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle on bond issuance to secure financing indicates that the sector is facing an increasingly significant need for capital.
While financially strong companies can support these investments through their own cash flows, specialized cloud and AI infrastructure providers may need to borrow more heavily. In an environment of rising interest rates, this difference becomes critical to companies' financial resilience.
Rising Yields on CoreWeave Bonds Send a Warning Signal
CoreWeave has become one of the most striking examples of financing risk among AI infrastructure companies. Its shares experienced a sharp decline as investors grew increasingly concerned about borrowing costs and capital expenditures.
Yields on CoreWeave's 2031 and 2032 bonds approaching approximately 15% indicate a significant deterioration in credit market perceptions of the company's debt risk.
The company's business model requires substantial upfront capital to purchase advanced GPUs and build large data centers. The return on these investments depends on future customer contracts and revenue streams.
Strong customer demand alone may not be enough. When financing expenses and infrastructure costs rise rapidly, a significant portion of revenue growth may be absorbed by debt servicing, reducing the returns shareholders can expect.
Inflation and High Interest Rates Deepen the Risk
The renewed strengthening of price pressures in the United States creates a two-pronged problem for technology companies. On one hand, high inflation can push up Treasury yields and borrowing costs. On the other, high interest rates put pressure on the valuations of growth stocks.
Interest rate increases become particularly significant for projects whose returns are spread over many years. The present value of the revenue companies expect to generate in the future declines, while financing those same projects becomes more expensive.
As a result, even if the economic potential of AI investments remains intact, generating financial returns from this growth can become more difficult.
Selling Pressure Spreads Across the AI Ecosystem
Financing concerns have not been limited to CoreWeave. Selling pressure has also emerged in companies associated with AI infrastructure, chip manufacturing, and data center investments.
Declines in the shares of companies such as Oracle, Nebius, and Dell indicate that investors are beginning to assess the AI theme more selectively. In addition to strong demand and growth expectations, the market is paying closer attention to the cost of financing that growth.
This distinction is particularly important for companies with high debt levels and substantial capital expenditure requirements. Financially stronger technology giants and infrastructure providers that rely more heavily on external financing may need to be assessed as separate risk categories.
Is the Bigger Concern Financing Risk Rather Than an AI Bubble?
The long-term growth potential of AI technology and the financial sustainability of investments in the sector are two different issues.
Companies may have strong demand, substantial order volumes, and long-term customer contracts. However, if investment costs, debt interest, and required capital expenditures rise faster than revenues, growth may fail to deliver the expected value for shareholders.
For this reason, investors need to focus not only on the growth in AI adoption but also on companies' cash flows, debt-servicing capacity, financing expenses, and investment payback periods.
Profitability Is Now the Market's Focus
The key factors influencing U.S. equity markets in the coming period include inflation data, the Fed's interest rate policy, Treasury yields, and the financial results of AI investments.
If interest rates remain elevated, the cost of debt-financed data center investments could increase. If credit market risk perceptions deteriorate, companies may be forced to seek more expensive financing or revise their investment plans.
The central question for the AI sector is no longer simply how much demand will grow, but whether that growth can translate into sustainable profits. In the coming period, the performance gap between companies with strong balance sheets, manageable debt costs, and healthy cash flows and businesses dependent on aggressive borrowing may become more pronounced.
$BTC

How Will the U.S. Midterm Elections Affect Markets? A Critical Period for Stocks and Sectors
As the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections approach, investors have begun assessing the potential impact of political uncertainty on stocks, bonds, and various sectors. Coinciding with geopolitical tensions, the inflation outlook, and the Fed's interest rate policy, the elections are expected to increase market volatility in the final part of the year.
Historical data show that the U.S. stock market delivers more modest returns in midterm election years compared with other years, while a strong recovery trend often emerges in the period following the elections. However, there is no guarantee that past performance will be repeated in the future.
The S&P 500 Posts More Modest Gains During Midterm Election Years
According to data dating back to 1931, the S&P 500 index has delivered an average return of 4.7% during U.S. midterm election years. In years without midterm elections, the index's average annual return has been 9.5%.
Recent examples also show that the political calendar can coincide with periods of market uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 18.1% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2022. Alongside political developments, the Fed's interest rate hikes and tightening financial conditions played significant roles in these declines.
Therefore, political outcomes are not the only factor determining market direction during midterm election periods. Inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and corporate earnings also continue to play decisive roles in investors' decisions.
Tendency for Stocks to Recover After the Elections
One notable aspect of historical performance is the potential for equities to perform more strongly after the elections have concluded.
The S&P 500 has gained an average of 6.4% in fourth quarters following midterm elections. Since 1970, it has also delivered an average return of 6.5% over the three-month period following midterm elections.
Longer-term data point to a similar trend. Since 1962, the S&P 500 has not recorded a negative return during the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with the average gain reaching 16.33%.
This performance suggests that reduced political uncertainty once election results become clear could support investor confidence. However, major economic factors, such as monetary policy or geopolitical risks, could override this historical trend.
Why Does Congressional Control Matter for Markets?
The November 3 elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, and 36 state governorships.
Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate, while their advantage in the House of Representatives is limited to just five seats. As a result, the election outcome could directly affect the political room President Donald Trump has to maneuver on economic and foreign policy during the second half of his term.
Expectations that Democrats could win control of the House of Representatives are gaining ground, while the Senate race is expected to be more competitive. Results in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa could prove critical in determining control of the Senate.
A shift in the balance of power in Congress could affect tax policies, government spending, regulations, and budget decisions. This uncertainty could increase price volatility, particularly in sectors where political decisions directly affect corporate revenues.
Trump's Approval Rating and Political Uncertainty
President Trump's public approval rating falling to 35% or below in some polls has intensified debate over the direction of the election race. Meanwhile, his support remaining at higher levels among Republican voters shows that the political landscape varies across voter groups.
Prediction markets favor the possibility of Democrats winning the House of Representatives, while the outlook for the Senate remains less clear.
In addition, many members of Congress are not seeking reelection, creating opportunities for new candidates to enter the race in certain districts. This increases the possibility that the existing political balance could shift in unexpected ways.
Which Sectors Stand Out During Midterm Elections?
Sector performance during past midterm election years suggests that investors tend to favor more defensive sectors before elections and shift toward more cyclical sectors afterward.
The healthcare sector has historically stood out during midterm election years, delivering an average return of 10.7%. The energy sector has also attracted attention with an average gain of 8.9%. Meanwhile, industrials and financials have tended to post relatively flat performance during the same periods.
Before elections, relatively defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, communication services, and utilities can remain more resilient. Because demand for these companies' products and services is less sensitive to the economic cycle, they may attract investor interest during periods of uncertainty.
After elections, cyclical consumer sectors, energy, financials, industrials, technology, and materials companies may deliver stronger performance. Reduced political uncertainty and investors reassessing their economic growth expectations can support this trend.
However, as sector performance varies depending on economic conditions, historical averages alone are not sufficient grounds for making investment decisions.
The Fed's Interest Rate Policy Could Matter More Than the Elections
As the U.S. midterm elections approach, investors may need to look beyond political outcomes. The Fed's fight against inflation and the future path of interest rates will continue to be critical factors influencing the direction of equity markets.
High interest rates increase companies' financing costs and can reduce the present value of future earnings. This can put pressure on technology companies, particularly those with high valuations. Conversely, declining interest rate expectations can support a recovery in equities.
The elections' potential impact on foreign and trade policy will also be closely monitored for its implications for energy prices, the dollar, and global risk appetite. Consequently, the market impact of the political outcome will largely depend on the prevailing economic environment.
A Critical Period for Markets Ahead of the November Elections
The U.S. midterm elections are among the key developments investors will be watching closely in the final part of 2026. Although historical data suggest that returns may be more modest before elections and performance may strengthen afterward, current economic and geopolitical conditions could produce a different outcome.
In the coming period, the balance of power in Congress, the Fed's interest rate decisions, inflation data, and corporate financial results will jointly influence market direction.
For investors, the central challenge will be distinguishing short-term volatility caused by the elections from longer-term economic trends. Reduced political uncertainty could support equities; however, persistently high interest rates or escalating geopolitical risks could limit the recovery expected after the elections.
$BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — OCTOBER 14, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
September U.S. inflation came in above expectations: CPI rose 0.6% month over month (in line with expectations) and 3.7% year over year (versus expectations of 3.6% and August's 3.4%); core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (versus expectations of 0.2%) and 2.6% year over year (versus expectations of 2.5%). The Fed had raised the upper bound of its policy rate to 4% in September.
Following the data, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.31 and the 2-year yield to 4.92; the 10-year yield touched 5.33 during the session before retreating to around 5.27. On CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike on October 27–28 rose from approximately 22% before the data to around 44%. The probability of two rate hikes by year-end climbed to 44%, up from 13% a week earlier.
U.S. equities remained weak during the session: the S&P 500 was down approximately 0.7%, the Nasdaq 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 1.4%, while the Dow was flat. Bank of America fell approximately 7% following its earnings report; a fine exceeding $1.2 billion is also in focus. Chip stocks remained under selling pressure for a sixth consecutive day.
Oil prices remain supported by the risk premium associated with the war involving Iran: Brent is above $106 and WTI above $95.8. Attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz continue; Reuters counted 10 attacks this week, and the container ship GFS Pride sank. The Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. Trump is maintaining his decision not to launch attacks during the election period but warned that the pause could “end within a few weeks.”
Gold has declined for three consecutive days, falling below $4,100 as expectations of higher interest rates weigh on the precious metal.
According to BlackRock's third-quarter earnings report, digital asset products attracted $7.9 billion in net inflows (after approximately $2.2 billion in outflows during the first half of the year). Digital asset AUM rose to $79.6 billion, still 23% below its peak of $104 billion.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC tested $84,000 during the early hours of the day before retreating. Following the inflation data, it fell below $83,000 and traded in the $81,500–$81,900 range during the New York session. The daily loss was approximately 2%, with a 24-hour range of $81,500–$84,050. The price remains approximately 35% below its peak above $126,000.
According to CoinGlass data, liquidations exceeded $250 million over 24 hours, with the bulk coming from long positions. More than $208 million in long positions were liquidated in just four hours following the data release. In the options market, the BVIV volatility index rose to 40%, while the largest concentrations of positions were in $60,000, $75,000, and $78,000 puts.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded $175.6 million in inflows on October 13, marking their strongest day of the month following approximately $680 million in outflows the previous week.
Support levels stand at $81,000 (the 50-day moving average and Tuesday's low of $80,970), followed by the $80,000–$80,300 range. A break below this range would bring $75,000 into focus. Resistance stands at $84,000. Wincent expects BTC to trade within the $80,000–$88,000 range in the short term. Meanwhile, 21Shares argues that much of the decline has already been priced in and highlights the possibility of a move above $85,000 once macroeconomic uncertainty subsides. As long as Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations remain elevated, a sustained move above $84,000 appears difficult.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH started the day below $2,500 and fell to approximately $2,440, a decline of around 3%. The $2,500 level has once again become resistance. U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded $24.8 million in net inflows on October 13. In the options market, the largest concentrations of positions were in $2,600 and $3,400 calls, as well as $2,300 puts.
SOL traded at approximately $104.6 (down 2–2.5%), XRP at approximately $1.34 (down 2–2.6%), while HYPE remained relatively calm in the $80–$81 range. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index fell to 55 from 60 a week earlier.
Selling pressure has been evident across DeFi since the start of the day: the CoinDesk DeFi Index declined 1.8%. Starknet fell 4.5%, Optimism 4.2%, Kaia 3.8%, and Celestia 3.7%. Pyth, down 4.5%, and Kite, down 5.3%, were among the notable underperformers.
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📋 KEY CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, signed an agreement to acquire Lithuania-based Saldo Bank. According to the Financial Times, it would become the first crypto company to acquire a bank in Europe. The purchase price was not disclosed, and the transaction is subject to regulatory approval, with completion expected in 2027. Payward plans to offer interest-bearing deposits, loans, and card services to EU customers.
The Central Bank of the Netherlands granted an electronic money institution license to Qivalis, a consortium formed by 37 European banks, including BBVA, BNP Paribas, ING, and DZ Bank. The consortium is moving closer to launching a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin. The token is expected to launch in the coming months once the remaining requirements, including the white paper, are finalized.
Strive purchased 2,822 BTC for $235 million at an average price of $83,266, increasing its total holdings to 35,595 BTC. The purchase was financed with $369.2 million generated through the exercise of PIPE-related warrants.
In the hardware wallet incident involving a security threat to Ledger, MediaMarkt and Saturn suspended Ledger sales after an implant was found in a customer's device. Ledger confirmed that the implant read the recovery phrase during setup and transmitted it via eSIM. Ledger did not confirm blockchain analyst Specter's estimate of losses exceeding $86 million. Ledger asked its resellers in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong to suspend sales.
EasyA announced plans for an initial public offering in 2027 and tokenized shares at a valuation of $1.1 billion.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Starknet (STRK)
October 15 (time not specified by Tokenomist)
127 million STRK, approximately $10 million
Approximately 1.7% of the circulating supply
Recipients: Early contributors
Selling pressure: 🟡
The token had pulled back following its sharp rally in recent weeks and remains weak today. As this is a regular monthly unlock, it does not come as a surprise.
Sei (SEI)
October 15 (time not specified)
Approximately $3.4 million; the token quantity is not listed on the Tokenomist screen
Approximately 0.84% of the supply (Tokenomist does not specify the reference base)
Recipients: Ecosystem reserve
Selling pressure: 🟢
As the allocation goes to the reserve, there is no requirement for the tokens to be sold directly on the market.
Arbitrum (ARB)
October 16 (the time is unclear in available sources)
92.65 million ARB, approximately $16.9 million
Approximately 1.56% of the circulating supply
Recipients: 56.13 million ARB for team members/advisors and 36.52 million ARB for investors (distribution reported by BeInCrypto; Tokenomist verification pending)
Selling pressure: 🟡
The allocation is weighted toward team members and investors. This is a regular monthly unlock.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND UPCOMING EVENTS
The market is currently pricing in whether the inflationary impact of the energy shock is spreading into core inflation. If tomorrow's U.S. producer price data confirms this thesis, the probability of an October rate hike could rise further, and Treasury yields could move decisively above 5.3. This would increase the risk of BTC consolidating within the $80,000–$84,000 range or slipping below its lower boundary, while ETF inflows are helping defend the bottom of the range.
The key threshold is the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Israeli elections are also scheduled for the same day, followed by the PCE data release on October 29. Continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility that Trump's pre-election pause on attacks could end remain the main geopolitical variables fueling inflation expectations in the oil market. Risk appetite is expected to remain closely tied to the Treasury market ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Leverage has been flushed out of the altcoin market, but the decline in the Altcoin Season Index points to selective investor interest. The STRK and ARB token unlocks are among the key developments to watch for potential short-term selling pressure.

AI BOOM DRIVES UP COMPUTER PRICES: U.S. TECHNOLOGY INFLATION HITS A 20-YEAR HIGH
Massive investments in AI infrastructure have coincided with a notable increase in consumer technology prices in the United States. September inflation data revealed one of the sharpest annual increases in computer and hardware prices in the past two decades, bringing the impact of AI demand on prices into the economic spotlight.
Annual Increase in Computer Prices Reaches 9.7%
In September, prices for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants rose 9.7% year over year. This marked the highest annual increase recorded since at least 2006.
Annual price increases for computer software and accessories reached 28.4%. The data show that cost pressures on technology products are not limited to hardware but are also spreading across different product categories.
AI Investments Are Driving Up Costs
Technology companies are increasing spending on data centers, advanced processors, and high-performance servers, strengthening demand across the hardware supply chain. Intense demand for advanced processors from manufacturers such as Nvidia is making capacity constraints and supply costs increasingly important.
The expansion of investment in AI infrastructure can create upward price pressure in areas where production capacity and component supplies cannot keep pace with demand. The extent to which these effects are passed on to consumer technology products will be closely monitored in the coming months.
A New Inflation Risk for the Fed
Rising technology prices are among the factors that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. In particular, if AI investments continue to push up costs in sectors beyond energy and housing, the risk of inflationary pressures spreading more broadly could increase.
The rise in U.S. consumer inflation to 3.7% year over year in September also indicates that price pressures persist. If increases in technology prices become entrenched alongside energy costs, the Fed may need to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.
AI Growth Could Fuel Inflation
AI is expected to improve productivity and reduce production costs over the long term. However, before these gains fully materialize, infrastructure spending, chip demand, and energy requirements can generate inflationary effects in the short term.
The critical question for markets is whether these cost increases will prove to be a temporary consequence of an investment cycle or spread to consumer prices and develop into more persistent inflationary pressure.
If AI investment continues to support economic growth while also pushing prices higher, the Fed may face an increasingly difficult balancing act between sustaining economic expansion and keeping inflation under control.
$BTC

U.S. INFLATION IS RUNNING HOTTER THAN HEADLINE FIGURES SUGGEST
The U.S. September CPI data exceeded expectations in both headline and core inflation. Although the rounded figures appeared close to forecasts at first glance, the decimal-level details revealed that price pressures were stronger than the market had anticipated. Following the release, the dollar index began to rise as investors increased their expectations for a Fed rate hike.
UNROUNDED FIGURES CHANGE THE PICTURE
According to BLS data, headline CPI rose 0.649% month over month in September. Market expectations stood at 0.58%. Although the rounded figure was reported as 0.6%, making it appear broadly in line with expectations at first glance, the actual increase was notably higher than forecast.
The biggest surprise came from core inflation, which the Fed monitors closely. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.335% month over month, compared with expectations of 0.21%. This means monthly core inflation exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. In August, monthly core CPI was also reported at 0.3%, against expectations of 0.2%.
ANNUAL INFLATION CLIMBS TO 3.7%
Annual headline inflation rose from 3.4% in August to 3.738%. Annual core inflation also ended its three-month declining streak, increasing from 2.446% to 2.564%.
Indicator: Headline CPI – Monthly
Actual: 0.649%
Expected: 0.58%
Previous: 0.40%
Indicator: Headline CPI – Annual
Actual: 3.738%
Expected: 3.6%
Previous: 3.40%
Indicator: Core CPI – Monthly
Actual: 0.335%
Expected: 0.21%
Previous: 0.29%
Indicator: Core CPI – Annual
Actual: 2.564%
Expected: 2.4%
Previous: 2.446%
FUEL PRESSURES DRIVE THE HEADLINE FIGURE
Energy prices are behind the sharp increase in headline inflation. In the U.S., gasoline prices climbed to $4.41 per gallon in early October, reaching a record high for the month and rising approximately 40% year over year. In the August data, the gasoline index increased 3.9% month over month and 27.4% year over year. However, the fact that core inflation also exceeded expectations indicates that price pressures are not limited to energy and are beginning to spread into services.
ONE OF THE RARE UPSIDE SURPRISES IN THE PAST TWO YEARS
The September reading also stands in sharp contrast to the trend of the past two years. Across the 23 CPI reports released since October 2024, monthly core inflation exceeded expectations only four times and came in below expectations 11 times. With the September report, the number of upside surprises has risen to five, and it is notable that two of them have occurred in consecutive months. The “inflation below expectations” pattern that markets had grown accustomed to for an extended period is now showing signs of reversing.
THE DOLLAR RISES AS RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS STRENGTHEN
Following the release, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to its highest level since November. Short-term U.S. interest rate futures fell, while investors increased their bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes.
Before the release, futures markets had priced in a 17%–20% probability of a rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting and approximately an 85% probability of at least one hike by December. The Fed’s policy rate remains in the 3.75%–4.00% range, and projections from the September meeting pointed to another quarter-point hike by year-end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also warned last week that persistent inflation could become entrenched in expectations.
The household outlook is also concerning. In the University of Michigan survey, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while five-year expectations increased to 3.5%. This development could lay the groundwork for a tougher Fed stance against the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored.
MARKET IMPLICATIONS
The fact that both headline and core inflation exceeded expectations has brought the possibility of a surprise rate hike at the October meeting back into consideration. A stronger dollar and rising rate expectations could create short-term pressure on cryptocurrency and stock markets. For gold, the focus may shift to the balance between demand for inflation protection and the upward pressure from rising real yields.
Markets will now focus on the Fed’s Beige Book, scheduled for release today at 21:00 TRT, followed by Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data. However, the main focus will remain on the Fed’s October 28 decision and whether the acceleration in core inflation proves persistent.
$BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — OCTOBER 13, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
South Korea’s KOSPI lost more than 5%, with Samsung and SK Hynix among the biggest decliners. The trigger was news that Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT had made progress on a more efficient chip design.
Wall Street closed mixed: the Dow rose approximately 0.7%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq declined 0.4%. The Dow was driven by a 5% jump in UnitedHealth after the company raised its profit forecast.
Earnings season opened with the banks: JPMorgan’s net profit rose 6% to $15.3 billion, but earnings per share of $5.57 fell short of expectations of $5.90. Goldman Sachs’ profit increased 29%, while Wells Fargo beat expectations.
Brent crude rose above $105 during the day before pulling back. Gasoline prices in the U.S. remained above 4 $ per gallon for more days than at any time since 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to hover around 5.25%.
Annual headline inflation in tomorrow’s September CPI report is expected at 3.6%, while core inflation is expected at 2.5%. Markets are pricing in a pause in rate hikes at the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, with tightening expected to resume in December.
The U.S. government moved approximately 1 $ billion worth of Bitcoin from a wallet linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack. There is no indication of a sale, and the move is currently being interpreted as a custody transfer.
Following the defeat of the CLARITY Act in the Senate, the regulatory burden shifted toward the SEC and CFTC. The SEC approved 3x leveraged ETFs and is also reviewing tokenized stocks.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC fluctuated sharply within the $81,000–$84,000 range during the day. It opened the night around $81,750, slipped below $81,000 amid the Asian selling wave, then surged above $84,000 before stabilizing around $83,000. Spot buyers drove the recovery, while leveraged positions and ETF flows remained on the sidelines.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $65.4 million from IBIT alone on October 12, while flows for the other funds were zero. The month’s largest single-day outflow remains the $484.9 million recorded on October 7. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 69 to 57, while Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.8%.
Support lies at $81,000, followed by last Thursday’s low of $80,000–$80,400. Resistance is at $84,000, with the high near $87,000 from Sunday above that. Holding above the $82,800 level left over from May is shifting the short-term outlook in Bitcoin’s favor. Losing this area would bring a retest of last week’s low back into focus.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
$ETH fell to $2,409 during the Asian session before recovering to the $2,500–$2,534 range. It failed to break above the 200-period EMA at $2,558 and the horizontal resistance at $2,540. Spot Ether ETFs recorded $85.4 million in outflows on October 12, marking their 10th consecutive day of outflows. Total outflows since September 29 have reached approximately $783 million. ETH is trading roughly 50% below its peak of $4,946. BitMine holds 6.03 million ETH, representing approximately 4.9% of total supply, and was reportedly set to stop buying once it reaches 5%.
The total DeFi market capitalization fell 5.8% to $82 billion. Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 6% to $81.30, while NEAR fell 12% to $5.16. Starknet (STRK) plunged 28% to $0.087. Osmosis (OSMO) rose 44%, standing out as the day’s strongest positive performer. There were no notable developments involving LUNC.
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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit plans to block or shut down 27 unregistered foreign exchanges, including KuCoin and MEXC.
Ledger is investigating allegations of theft involving approximately $86 million linked to devices purchased from a reseller called CryptoBilis. Users who purchased devices within the past 90 days have been urged not to set them up.
$XRP treasury company Evernorth completed its SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II. It holds approximately 473 million XRP, worth $672 million, along with $300 million in cash.
Blur’s front end will shut down on November 12, although its on-chain protocol will continue operating. Blend will stop issuing new loans on the same day. Payy, meanwhile, opened a 30-day USDC reimbursement process for victims of the September 24 bridge attack and will close the wallet afterward.
Aptos’s encrypted mempool feature went live on mainnet, concealing transaction details to reduce front-running and MEV risks. A proposal from the Polkadot community seeks to direct the DAO toward real-world utility and launch dotUSD, the first DOT-backed stablecoin.
TD Cowen expects the CFTC to propose rules governing leveraged crypto trading in early 2027, with final rules potentially not arriving until early 2028.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Starknet (STRK)
Date: October 15, 2026, exact time not yet confirmed (data awaiting verification on Tokenomist)
Amount: 127 million STRK, worth approximately $11 million at the current price (some data providers also report $15.4 million)
Share of circulating supply: Approximately 3.4% (based on reported supply)
Recipient profile: 66.61 million STRK for early contributors and 60.39 million STRK for investors
Selling pressure: 🟡
Note: The dollar value has contracted because the price has fallen 28% over the past 24 hours. Given the investor allocation and price weakness, selling volume should be monitored.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
Tomorrow’s CPI report is the week’s key turning point. Inflation above expectations could strengthen tightening expectations driven by oil prices and Treasury yields, potentially pushing Bitcoin back toward $81,000 support. An in-line or lower reading, however, could open the way for a test of $84,000 led by spot buyers.
Whether the 10-day outflow streak in Ether ETFs breaks will be a more decisive indicator of the direction of institutional demand. Bitcoin outflows have narrowed, but there has not yet been a shift to net inflows.
Ahead of the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, risk appetite will remain dependent on developments in oil prices, Treasury yields, and pressure on chip stocks. Regulatory action in South Korea and weakness in Nasdaq technology stocks are keeping the outlook selective for altcoins.

U.S. INFLATION DATA DUE WEDNESDAY: THE FED’S OCTOBER DECISION DEPENDS ON CPI AS MARKETS PREPARE FOR FOUR SCENARIOS
Spot: The U.S. September CPI data will be released on Wednesday, October 14, at 15:30 TRT. Record gasoline prices will push headline inflation higher, while attention will focus on core inflation. Markets are assigning approximately a 20% probability to an October rate hike; a hot reading could change this outlook in a single move.
WHAT TIME WILL THE DATA BE RELEASED, AND WHAT IS EXPECTED?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, at 08:30 New York time, or 15:30 TRT. This is the last major inflation indicator before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.
Indicator: Headline CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 3.4%
September Expectation: 3.6%–3.7%
Indicator: Headline CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.4%
September Expectation: 0.5%–0.6%
Indicator: Core CPI (YoY)
August (Previous): 2.4%
September Expectation: 2.4%
Indicator: Core CPI (MoM)
August (Previous): 0.3%
September Expectation: 0.2%
The market consensus points to annual headline inflation of 3.7%. The Cleveland Fed’s real-time nowcasting model, meanwhile, points to 3.60% for headline inflation and 2.39% for core inflation.
WHY WILL HEADLINE INFLATION RISE?
The reason is energy, in one word. The war with Iran and disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated. Brent crude traded at around $107 per barrel at the end of September. The average U.S. gasoline price rose to $4.33 per gallon in September, a historical record for the month and more than $1 above the level recorded a year earlier.
In the August data, gasoline alone rose 3.9% month over month, accounting for more than one-third of the total increase. Energy prices rose 16.3% year over year, while airline ticket prices increased 23.4%. Energy is expected to make an even larger contribution to headline inflation in September.
WHY IS CORE INFLATION CRITICAL?
The Fed looks at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to answer the question: “Are price pressures spreading throughout the economy?” In August, annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021. However, the monthly rate accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. Part of the low annual figure reflects a high base effect from 2025. For this reason, the market will focus on the monthly core reading this time.
Another point to watch: the indicator targeted by the Fed is PCE. In August, annual core PCE stood at 3.0%. In other words, core CPI at 2.4% does not mean that inflation is close to the Fed’s target.
Key subcomponents to monitor include housing (rent and owners’ equivalent rent, or OER), airline tickets, transportation services, and “supercore” inflation (core services excluding housing). These categories will provide the earliest indication of whether higher fuel costs are spilling over into service prices.
THE FED’S POSITION
On September 16, the Fed delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, raising the policy rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was unanimous. The Dot Plot shows a median year-end rate of 4.1%, implying one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026.
The September meeting minutes, released on October 7, revealed that most policymakers considered another rate hike by year-end appropriate. However, the timing remains uncertain:
Waller: Said further rate hikes may be necessary, but they do not have to occur at consecutive meetings.Williams: Another hike this year is “reasonable,” but there is no need to rush.Bowman and Jefferson: More cautious about additional rate hikes.
Weak September employment data also lowered expectations: nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, compared with expectations of approximately 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. Because wages are lagging behind inflation, real wages are eroding. Some analysts interpret this picture as a stagflation risk.
According to CME FedWatch data, the market is pricing in an approximately 20% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting and a probability above 80% of at least one hike by December. The fact that the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will take place just six days after the Fed meeting is another factor supporting a “wait-and-see” approach in October.
Treasury Yields and the Dollar: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% on October 1, its highest level since 2002, and climbed as high as 5.36% on October 7. The 2-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to the 102.3 area following the release of the minutes.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS: HOW COULD MARKETS REACT TO THE DATA?
HOT DATA
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.4% or higher
This scenario would mean that the energy shock is spreading to core prices. An October rate hike, which the market has assigned a low probability to, would come back into consideration, and discussions could begin about a 50-basis-point move in December.
Dollar (DXY): Strong rally. Short-term interest rate expectations shift in favor of the dollar.EUR/USD: Downward pressure.USD/JPY: Moves higher. The 160 level will be monitored as a critical threshold because of the risk of Japanese intervention.U.S. Treasury yields: Sharp increases, particularly in the 2-year yield. The 10-year yield could retest its 5.36% peak.Gold: Remains under pressure. As a non-yielding asset, gold is negatively affected by rising real yields. The eight-week low area around $4,110, recorded on September 28, could come back into focus. However, a decline in the geopolitical risk premium could limit losses.Bitcoin and crypto: Selling pressure as risk appetite declines and liquidity expectations tighten. The risk of liquidations in leveraged positions is high, and altcoins could fall more sharply than Bitcoin.U.S. stock markets: Selling pressure. The technology-heavy Nasdaq would be more severely affected as the index most sensitive to higher discount rates.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A strong dollar and high U.S. interest rates could trigger outflows from emerging-market assets. Foreign selling on Borsa Istanbul and upward pressure on the exchange rate could follow.
IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS (NORMAL DATA)
Headline inflation at 3.6%–3.7%, monthly core inflation at 0.2%–0.3%, annual core inflation at 2.4%
The market’s current pricing remains intact: no hike in October, followed by a hike in December. The increase in headline inflation is interpreted as “energy-driven and temporary.”
Dollar: Limited movement; the initial reaction quickly stabilizes.Treasury yields: Move sideways.Gold: Geopolitical developments and the dollar remain the key drivers of direction; no significant data-driven impact is expected.Bitcoin: Data-driven volatility is short-lived, and the crypto market returns to its own drivers, including ETF flows and funding rates.Stock markets: Attention shifts to bank earnings released the same day, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, as well as details on supercore inflation.
One point to watch in this scenario is the rounding effect. The BLS reports figures to one decimal place; both 0.26% and 0.34% would appear as “0.3%.” Since algorithms calculate the unrounded figures within seconds, the initial reaction could move in either direction even if the published figure matches expectations.
GOOD (COOL) DATA
Headline inflation at 3.5% or lower, monthly core inflation at 0.1% or lower
Combined with weak employment data, this would strengthen the argument that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The possibility of a December hike would also come under scrutiny.
Dollar: Noticeable weakening.EUR/USD: Moves higher.USD/JPY: Downward correction.Treasury yields: Decline, particularly at the 2-year maturity.Gold: Becomes one of the biggest beneficiaries, supported by both falling real yields and a weaker dollar.Bitcoin and crypto: An upward reaction as liquidity expectations improve. Altcoins could also become more active in this scenario.U.S. stock markets: Rally, with technology stocks leading the way.Emerging markets and the Turkish lira: A weaker dollar supports risk appetite and could have a positive effect on Borsa Istanbul.
MIXED SCENARIO (SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED)
Headline inflation at 3.8% or higher, monthly core inflation at 0.2% or lower
This is one of the more plausible surprises this month. Elevated headline inflation driven by energy alongside subdued core inflation would send the message: “There is an energy shock, but it is not spreading.” Markets could initially react to the headline figure within seconds and then reverse direction based on the core reading. Gold and oil could maintain their upward momentum, while the dollar and Treasury yields could remain directionless. Bitcoin, meanwhile, could recover after an initial decline.
WHAT TO WATCH ON THE SAME DAY AND AFTERWARD (TRT)
Wednesday, October 14, 15:30: U.S. September CPIOctober 14: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings (before the market opens), ASML earningsOctober 14, 21:00: Fed Beige BookOctober 15, 15:30: U.S. September PPIOctober 28, 21:00: Fed interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Chair Kevin WarshOctober 29, 15:30: U.S. September PCE and advance estimate of third-quarter GDPNovember 3: U.S. midterm elections
INVESTOR CHECKLIST
Check the latest consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcast figures immediately before the release.Look at monthly core CPI first; this is where the market’s main reaction will come from.Monitor airline tickets, transportation, and supercore components to see whether the impact of fuel costs is spreading.Compare the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield before and after the release; this is the clearest indicator of changes in Fed expectations.Remember that the initial market move can reverse within minutes.Spreads widen around data releases, and stop orders may execute at worse-than-expected prices due to slippage. Reducing position sizes in leveraged trades is a fundamental risk management measure.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What time will the U.S. CPI data be released?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 15:30 TRT.
What is the expected September CPI reading?
Annual headline inflation is expected at 3.6%–3.7%, while annual core inflation is expected at 2.4% and monthly core inflation at 0.2%.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in October?
According to market pricing, the probability is low, at around 20%. However, a sharp increase in core inflation could quickly raise this probability.
How would hot inflation data affect Bitcoin?
It generally reduces risk appetite by pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher, creating selling pressure on Bitcoin.
How would inflation data affect gold?
Hot data puts pressure on gold by raising real yields, while cool data supports gold through falling yields and a weaker dollar. Geopolitical risks can sometimes weaken this relationship.
CONCLUSION
An increase in headline inflation in Wednesday’s data is almost certain; the real question is whether the energy shock is spilling over into core prices. If core inflation comes in line with expectations, the main scenario remains that the Fed will hold rates in October and signal a move in December. An upside surprise in core inflation could trigger sharp repricing across the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets. For a Fed caught between a weakening labor market and persistent energy inflation, this report is one of the most critical turning points in determining the interest rate path for the remainder of the year.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — October 12, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
At least 12–13 people were killed in Houthi attacks targeting Riyadh International Airport over the weekend. Brent crude rose above $106, reaching its highest level in approximately two weeks, while WTI traded around $93.
Iran was reportedly reviewing a U.S. proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two tanker attacks off the coast of Oman also kept the risk premium in the market elevated.
Wall Street traded mixed: the Dow rose approximately 0.4%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%. High energy costs and Treasury yields weighed on technology stocks. The bond market was closed for Columbus Day.
Trump's announcement of an agreement to import diesel from Russia to lower fuel prices ahead of the elections prompted objections from six bipartisan senators over sanctions policy.
According to the Fed's September meeting minutes, most policymakers consider another rate hike by year-end appropriate. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near its highest level in 24 years, while the Dollar Index is at an 18-month high.
Gold fell to $4,195 (-0.5%), while silver declined to $60.9. A strong dollar and elevated real yields put precious metals under selling pressure.
South Korea announced its first Bitcoin-backed loan from a traditional bank.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC traded within a narrow $82,700–$84,100 range during the day, hovering just below $83,000 in the evening. It is down approximately 3% on a weekly basis but remains well above last week's low near $80,000.
Liquidations over the past 24 hours were limited to approximately $47 million, mostly involving short positions. By comparison, liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion on October 9. Open interest in futures stands at $66 billion. The long-heavy positioning ratios on Binance and OKX indicate that long positions remain vulnerable if a sharp downward move occurs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in net outflows last week. The small $21 million inflow on October 9 did not change the overall picture. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 69, in the “Greed” zone.
Nearby support levels are $79,700–$80,200 (SuperTrend and the 50-day EMA), followed by the $77,000–$79,000 region. Resistance stands at $84,000–$85,000, followed by $87,000–$88,000. The recovery cannot be considered confirmed unless buyers reclaim and hold $84,000.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is trading around $2,530, down 7% on the week. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $542 million in outflows last week, their worst weekly performance since January. The $2,600 supply zone is the first resistance, while $2,506 (50-day EMA) and $2,352 (100-day EMA) are support levels. The RSI is at 47, below neutral, and the MACD is negative.
XRP is moving sideways around $1.40, attempting to hold above the $1.38–$1.40 support cluster. XRP spot ETFs attracted $11 million in inflows, extending their inflow streak beyond 13 weeks. Total inflows have reached $1.8 billion.
SOL remains weak around the $110 range. Solana ETFs recorded $24.8 million in outflows, ending a 14-week streak of inflows.
Minor rebounds across altcoins have occurred on thin volume, with no signs of sustained spot buying.
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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
SkyAI, a Nasdaq-listed Solana treasury company, confirmed that it sold 1 million SOL, approximately half of its reserves. The company is also planning a cash tender offer of up to $201 million at $3 per share, expected to begin around October 15. SOL falling below $100 is among the conditions associated with the offer.
Standard Chartered launched institutional custody services for Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin through its DIFC branch. An arrangement involving Ripple and LMAX to enable RLUSD to be used as collateral is also planned.
Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, has begun testing crypto purchases and sales, along with deposits and withdrawals, through its mobile app. Broader customer access is targeted for December 1, provided the regulatory framework takes effect.
Hong Kong's second spot Solana ETF, issued by Pando, will be listed tomorrow. Its annual management fee is 0.6%, below ChinaAMC's 0.99% fee.
LBTC redemptions on the Liquid Network have been frozen for 35 days. Following an exploit involving approximately 4,000 BTC, 3,400 BTC have been returned. The attacker rejected a 10% bounty for the remaining 598.5 BTC, and there is no restart date.
A Glassnode co-founder estimated that 6.26 million BTC, or 31.2% of the supply, are held at addresses with exposed public keys. Discussion of controlled address migration to mitigate quantum risks is gaining momentum. Meanwhile, on October 9, Tether froze approximately $1.45 million in USDT held across four TRON vault addresses belonging to THORChain. No reason was disclosed.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Starknet (STRK)
October 15, 03:00 TRT — approximately 127 million STRK, worth around $13.9 million
Percentage of circulating supply: 3.37%
Recipient profile: Early contributors (66.61 million) and investors (60.39 million)
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: A recurring monthly unlock. The data is still awaiting confirmation on Tokenomist, and the investor allocation increases short-term selling risk.
Sei (SEI)
October 15, 15:00 TRT — approximately 55.56 million SEI, worth around $3.7 million
Percentage of circulating supply: 0.84%
Recipient profile: Details not provided by the source; unverified
Selling pressure: 🟡
Note: The amount is relatively small, but its impact could be felt in thin altcoin liquidity.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
Tomorrow, earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi are due. The main market threshold of the week is U.S. September inflation (CPI) on October 14 at 15:30. With a Fed rate hike already being priced in, an upside surprise could put the $79,000–$80,000 support zone to the test. A reading in line with expectations, however, could open the way for another attempt at the $84,000–$85,000 resistance zone.
PPI and retail sales are due on October 15, while BTC and ETH options expire on October 16. Price movements toward certain levels ahead of expiration are common. Unless ETF flows turn positive, rallies should be viewed as short-term moves driven by liquidations.
The main risk channel is oil: Brent remaining above $106, combined with elevated yields and a strong dollar, is limiting risk appetite. The Fed meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, and the U.S. midterm elections take place on November 3. Until then, the market may remain sensitive to incoming news and trade within a narrow range.

📅 WEEKLY MACRO AND RISK CALENDAR | OCTOBER 12–16, 2026
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
With the Fed having raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75–4.00%, the week opens with U.S. September inflation (CPI), followed by retail sales and PPI the very next day. In other words, price pressures and the resilience of demand will be tested within the same 24-hour period. A series of central bank officials' speeches and a conversation featuring the Fed Chair on Friday morning will add to the mix. The rate-hike trajectory is the main focus of the week.
🗓 Day-by-Day Economic Calendar
Monday, October 12
🇺🇸 Columbus Day holiday: U.S. Treasury markets are closed, and the Fed's statistical releases scheduled for today have been moved to Tuesday.
🇨🇦 Canadian Thanksgiving holiday
No major economic data releases are scheduled; liquidity may be thin.
Tuesday, October 13
🇦🇺 RBA September meeting minutes
🇩🇪 Germany CPI (September, final) | 09:00
🇺🇸 Fed Board member speech (AI theme, New Delhi) | 10:45
🇺🇸 Earnings season begins with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | Wednesday, 05:10
Wednesday, October 14
🇨🇳 China CPI (September) | 04:30
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 08:30
🇨🇦 BoC Governor's speech | 09:05
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | 11:30
🇺🇸 CPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book (October) | 21:00
🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley and Bank of America earnings
Thursday, October 15
🇦🇺 Employment data (September) | 03:30
🇨🇭 SNB Chair's speech | 07:30
🇬🇧 GDP (August) | 09:00
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 10:30 and Friday, 05:00
🇪🇺 Eurozone industrial production (August) | 12:00
🇺🇸 PPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Retail sales (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Weekly jobless claims | 15:30
🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Chair's conversation with the IMF Managing Director (Bangkok) | Friday, 06:30
Friday, October 16
🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (September, final) | 12:00
🇺🇸 Import and export prices (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Industrial production and capacity utilization (September) | 16:15
⚠️ Crypto Market Impact and Key Weekly Risk Points
The single biggest risk of the week is U.S. CPI on Wednesday at 15:30. With the rate-hiking cycle still underway, a headline or core inflation reading above expectations could strengthen pricing for further hikes, push the dollar and yields higher, and trigger sharp selling in Bitcoin and altcoins. A softer inflation picture would ease risk appetite concerns; however, PPI and retail sales due the following day could change the direction again, meaning the sustainability of Wednesday's reaction will be tested on Thursday at 15:30.
Thursday at 15:30 brings PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Index in a single window. A combination of strong spending and elevated producer prices would reinforce the Fed's tightening tone. Sudden wicks and liquidation waves are common in crypto futures around these releases, so leveraged positions require extra caution as this window approaches.
Central bank communication will be intense this week. Multiple speeches by the ECB and BoE presidents, appearances by the BoC and SNB governors, and the Fed Chair's Friday morning conversation could deliver new signals about the interest-rate path. Since the Fed Chair's conversation is scheduled for Friday at 06:30 Turkey time, it could affect the opening of the Asian session toward the end of the week. The Beige Book at 21:00 on Wednesday will provide a second layer of commentary following CPI.
The closure of U.S. Treasury markets on Monday means the week begins with thin liquidity. Since crypto trades 24/7, price movements that develop over the weekend could be exaggerated during this period. Bank earnings beginning on Tuesday will also influence risk appetite in equities, with indirect effects on crypto.
Weekly summary: Monday is quiet; Wednesday brings the highest volatility with CPI; a second wave arrives Thursday at 15:30; Friday opens with the Fed Chair's conversation and closes in the afternoon with industrial production data.
$BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — October 8, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
Brent crude rose nearly 5% above $105 following new tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, while WTI is around $92.5. Evacuations have also begun at some offshore platforms due to the tropical storm in the Gulf.
The September FOMC minutes showed that another rate hike is expected by the end of the year. Rates had been raised to 3.75–4.00% in September; one Fed official also said further hikes are likely. The next meeting is October 27–28.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is near its highest level since 2002 at 5.35%, while the 30-year yield is at 5.69%. Successful auctions on Wednesday had pulled yields back from their highs, but they are rising again today.
U.S. stocks were down mid-session: the Dow fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 0.40%, the Nasdaq 0.67%, and the Russell 2000 0.99%. The pullback following the record high has continued since Wednesday.
Jobless claims fell to 197,000, while September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000. The combination of weak employment and high inflation is putting the Fed in a difficult position.
The Atlantic reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon for options for strikes against Iran that could be carried out before the November 3 midterm elections. Trump said on Truth Social that there was no plan for an attack before the elections, but risk appetite in the market did not recover.
The CLARITY Act failed in a vote in the U.S. Senate; agencies are moving forward with their own regulations without waiting for the legislation. Crypto donors are reassessing their spending strategy ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
SlowMist issued a warning about a new bookmark-based phishing method capable of taking over accounts that are already logged in.
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₿ BITCOIN
Bitcoin fell from an intraday high around $84,300 to as low as $80,900, reaching its lowest level in nearly three weeks, and is trying to stabilize around $81,000. The loss over the past 24 hours is around 3%, while the weekly decline is close to 4%; after trading near $90,000 last week, the price pulled back following consecutive rejections at $87,000.
Intraday liquidations were intense: $546 million was liquidated yesterday, 88% of which were long positions; today, another $489 million in liquidations occurred within a single hour. Following the rejections at $87,000, the liquidation of leveraged longs accelerated the sell-off.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487 million in outflows yesterday, the heaviest daily outflow seen in weeks. Total net assets are approximately $107 billion. It was observed that 12,267 BTC, worth approximately $1 billion, were moved to new addresses from wallets linked to the U.S. government and associated with the Bitfinex hack seizure address; one day earlier, approximately 3,200 BTC had also been sent to Coinbase Prime addresses. Since there was no direct deposit to an exchange, it remains unclear whether this was a sale or a repositioning.
Technically, the move below $81,000 broke the range floor. The 20-day moving average at $83,250 is acting as resistance, followed by the $87,000–$87,500 region as the main resistance. On the downside, $80,000 is psychological support, while the 50-day moving average at $79,600 is the final line of defense for the bullish structure; if this area is lost, $78,000 could be tested.
In the short term, price action depends on the combination of oil prices, Treasury yields, and Fed expectations; as long as daily closes remain above $80,000, the move remains a correction.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
Ethereum fell to around $2,420, down 5–6% on the day; its weekly loss has approached 9%. Ethereum ETFs saw $161 million in outflows yesterday. Sustained trading below $2,500 makes the $2,400 area the next support.
Altcoins experienced roughly twice as much selling as Bitcoin: XRP fell nearly 6% to $1 .34 and is trying to hold at the 100-day moving average at $1 .33, with $1 .40 as resistance. Solana fell 7% to around $108, while Dogecoin declined 7–8% to $0.082. Chainlink fell 8%, while Zcash declined nearly 15%.
Hyperliquid is trading below $90 after falling around 6%; its gain of more than 200% since the beginning of the year still makes it one of the few names that has remained relatively strong in the weak market. TRON and Monero are also among the major coins that remain positive on a year-to-date basis.
The standout news in the declining market came from Meteora: MET rose approximately 51% to around $0.48. Jupiter had also attracted attention with a gain of more than 16% ahead of the U.S. session. Moves of hundreds of percent in low-volume tokens should not be considered a sign of a broad recovery.
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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
Standard Chartered’s Singapore branch plans to launch institutional custody services for cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets.
Coinbase and Samsung are bringing USDC services to Samsung Wallet at the end of October; custody will be handled by Coinbase Prime.
Coinbase asked a U.S. appeals court to confirm that the CFTC has primary jurisdiction over prediction markets rather than state-level frameworks.
First Digital Group reached a merger agreement with Nasdaq-listed CSLM Digital Asset Acquisition Corp III; the pre-transaction valuation is $250 million, with approvals pending.
Kyrgyzstan is terminating the USDKG stablecoin project; issuer EVA and Coin Nomad Exchange will be liquidated, while holders will be able to redeem their holdings in fiat or USDT.
The Moscow Exchange is reportedly planning to begin crypto trading on December 1.
In South Korea, Bithumb will list AIA and CASHCAT against the won. In addition, according to a report, the total volume of 6.4 million AI payments conducted through x402 was only $119,900; 90.8% of the transactions were below one cent.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
CARV (Not listed on Binance; listed on Kraken, Bybit, Upbit, Bitget, and Gate)
Date/time: October 10, 03:00 (nodes), 14:37 (community), 23:42 (core team, advisors, early investors, and private round) TRT
Amount: approximately 48.5 million CARV for the day, worth approximately $2.1 million; evening tranche 38.8 million CARV, worth approximately $1 .7 million
Percentage of circulating supply: 7.3% for the full day, 5.9% for the evening tranche
Recipient profile: 21.6 million to the core team and advisors, 9.0 million to early investors, 8.1 million to the private round; the remainder goes to node operators and the community
Selling pressure: 🔴
Context: With total daily trading volume at approximately $1 .3 million, the unlocked supply exceeds the trading volume; due to thin liquidity, insider selling could put significant pressure on the price. Some calendars show the date as October 11, and the times remain subject to confirmation.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
The market’s direction this week is being determined more by oil and interest rates than by crypto-specific news: as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, Brent remains above $100, keeping both inflation expectations and the possibility of a rate hike alive. If Bitcoin holds above $80,000, the correction scenario remains valid; a daily close below that level would open the door to $78,000 and below.
The calendar for the days ahead: October 10 marks the first anniversary of the largest crypto liquidation day in history; emotional attention around this date may increase following the deleveraging. On October 14, the U.S. inflation (CPI) data will be released and will be the most important data point ahead of the Fed’s October meeting. The October 27–28 FOMC decision will show whether the rate hike expectation has already been priced in. Ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, uncertainty stemming from Iran and the possibility of the CLARITY Act returning to the agenda remain key factors that could determine market direction.
The first conditions needed for a recovery are for ETF outflows to stop and for the $83,000–$83,250 range to be reclaimed; without this, $87,000 will not become a new target.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — October 7, 2026
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🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
Renewed Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz weakened expectations that maritime traffic would return to pre-war levels; Brent crude rose above $101.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.3%; the 25-basis-point hike that brought the Fed's policy rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range in September was the first tightening move since 2023.
The minutes of the Fed's September meeting are being released today at 21:00 TRT; the market is looking for clues regarding a second rate hike.
The S&P 500 closed at a record level, while index futures are flat; the technology-led rally is not moving in the same direction as crypto.
Saudi Arabia confirmed that the Houthis had attacked airports; the strategic reserve releases planned by the G7 are limiting concerns over oil supply.
In the U.S. Senate, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act fell below the 60-vote threshold at 49-50 on September 16; Democrats cited ethical concerns, while three Republicans also voted against it. The bill has remained stalled since then.
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₿ BITCOIN
Bitcoin traded in the $83,650-$86,650 range during the day and is trading around $84,000. The $87,000 resistance that has limited every upward attempt since the end of September was not broken today either; the first short-term hurdle is $85,300, followed by $86,700. On the downside, $84,000 and the day's low of $83,650 are the first supports. If the daily close falls below $83,300, the $80,600-$82,600 range could come into focus.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.9 million in net outflows on October 5; BlackRock's IBIT recorded $69.9 million in inflows, while ARKB saw $85.2 million in outflows. Over the past 24 hours, 88% of the $546 million in liquidations came from long positions; with open interest in futures remaining at $69.3 billion, the risk of sharp moves remains elevated. The price remains approximately 33% below the $126,080 peak from one year ago.
RSI is around 44, indicating a slight bearish bias; without a high-volume close above $87,000, a move toward $90,000 is not a realistic target.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
Ethereum fell from its weekly opening around $2,700 to $2,580 and is down approximately 42.5% over the past 12 months. The largest liquidation of the day occurred in Ethereum: $174.9 million, putting it first among liquidated assets, while a single $26.6 million ETH/USDC position was closed on Binance.
XRP fell as low as $1.435 before returning to the $1.45-$1.55 range; if $1.39 breaks, selling could deepen, while $1.62 is the upside target. Cardano pulled back from $0.28 and is consolidating around $0.25; $0.237 is support, while $0.26 is resistance.
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📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
Bitget confirmed that the $387.5 million theft was caused by a zero-day vulnerability in third-party security products. Attackers obtained highly privileged internal credentials and carried out withdrawals that bypassed risk controls across 11 blockchains; malicious activity began on August 31, while the main theft occurred on September 25. Circle, Tether, and NEAR Intents froze approximately $1.1 million, while the exchange disabled affected functions until a vendor patch was provided.
A vault on Base was drained of approximately 1,783 wstETH worth $6 million after a multisig wallet removed a contract and reauthorized it one minute later with valid signatures, allowing the assets to be borrowed through Aave V3 (October 4). The incident appears to involve suspected key compromise or approval manipulation rather than a protocol vulnerability.
September was the worst month of 2026 for crypto hacks, with losses reaching $766 million.
The Hyperliquid team announced that the 3.75 million HYPE unlock on October 6, worth approximately $340 million, went to a single institutional buyer.
Ethena moved the ENA unlock forward on its schedule and completed it on October 5: 171.9 million ENA, worth approximately $41.5 million and representing 1.88% of circulating supply, was distributed to core team members and investors.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Aerodrome (AERO) — October 8, time not specified by data sources (TRT)
Value: approximately $3.53 million, token amount not verified
Share of circulating supply: 0.30%
Recipient profile: details not provided by sources
Selling pressure: 🟢 Low
Note: The amount is small, the token is exchange-listed, and the share is below the 0.5% threshold; no significant supply shock is expected.
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🔭 OUTLOOK AND EVENTS AHEAD
Equities are at record highs while crypto is opening at the week's lows: risk appetite is diverging, and crypto is struggling to attract buyers in a high-interest-rate environment. The liquidation of leveraged longs could create the conditions for a bottom, but ETF inflows need to turn positive again for that to happen.
If the minutes signal further tightening, pressure from interest rates and the dollar could push Bitcoin toward the $80,000 area; a softer tone, on the other hand, could open the door to another test of $87,000. A series of exchange hacks could keep institutional inflows cautious while the legislative deadlock continues. In the short term, direction will be determined less by macroeconomic data than by which of these two thresholds breaks first.