For-Exx Kripto

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — August 5, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Strategy (MSTR) made a significant shift from its long-standing "never sell" policy, selling a total of 5,226 BTC across three transactions and raising approximately $321 million in cash. Meanwhile, the company's publicly traded preferred stock STRC has climbed more than 30% from its June lows to $94.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen is preparing for a full-scale conflict with Saudi Arabia, while attacks on Saudi vessels continue to reinforce a "blockade for blockade" dynamic.
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that no agreement has been finalized with the United States regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, President Trump said on Wednesday that an agreement to reopen the strait could still be possible.
Fed official Neel Kashkari said: "It's time to start raising interest rates gradually."
SpaceX investors are preparing for increased volatility as $101 billion worth of shares become eligible for trading on Thursday.
U.S. July ADP Employment came in at +44K (Forecast: +70K, Previous: +98K), signaling a notable slowdown.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC continued its recovery within the $64,000–64,500 range. Price remains above the 20-day EMA ($63,943) but continues to struggle at the 50-day EMA ($64,587), a level it has failed to break for the past three weeks.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $170 million in net inflows today, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $111.43 million.
Trump's comments suggesting that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be possible helped support overall market sentiment.
On-chain activity shows signs of panic: amid the Coldcard security incident, Bitcoin network activity reached its highest level of 2026.
A break above $64,587 could open the door toward the $66,000–67,025 region, while a close below $63,898 could shift focus back to the $62,662–60,000 support zone.
$BTC
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded in the $1,865–1,880 range, posting modest gains while largely tracking Bitcoin ahead of Friday's U.S. employment report.
Cysic (CYS) surged 93%, becoming the day's standout performer.
The DeFi market capitalization increased to $61.4 billion (+1% daily), while DeFi dominance rose to 4.1%.
Canton (CC) declined 6.06%, ranking among the day's weakest performers.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved slightly to 27 (Fear) from yesterday's 25 (Extreme Fear) but remains below last week's reading of 29.
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📋 CRYPTO MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
PROVE (Succinct) completed one of the largest token unlocks of 2026 today, releasing 104–119% of its circulating supply and effectively doubling its float.
Negotiations over the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act remain unresolved as August 7, the Senate's final working day before recess, approaches.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
August 6, 2026
Amount: $22.74 million (0.19% of circulating supply) — 433,000 HYPE
Recipients: Core Contributors (routine monthly cliff unlock)
Selling Pressure: 🟢 Low
Note: According to Tokenomist, the HYPE team has historically claimed significantly fewer tokens than projected. Combined with the relatively small unlock size, the expected market impact is limited.
No additional major token unlocks above the reporting threshold have been identified for August 7.
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Friday's U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the week's most important macro event.
With July ADP employment coming in well below expectations (+44K vs. +70K), expectations for a weaker NFP reading have increased, potentially reshaping market expectations for the Fed's September policy path.
At the same time, two opposing geopolitical developments remain in focus: the possibility of a Hormuz Strait agreement suggested by President Trump and the escalating tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, both of which could significantly influence regional risk premiums in the coming days.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — August 4, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The four-day countdown for the CLARITY Act has begun. Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego are working on a revised ethics compromise, while the ethics provisions remain the biggest obstacle to reaching the required 60 votes.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged there are not enough votes to pass the bill before the August recess. August 7 is the Senate's final working day before recess, while August 10 is considered the practical deadline.
Polymarket now prices the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at 27%, while Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate to around 30%.
Despite reporting a third consecutive quarterly loss, Coinbase captured a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argued that crypto companies should stop pivoting toward artificial intelligence.
Robinhood's tokenized stock product surged 445% in a single day, highlighting continued investor interest in tokenized assets.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC traded in a tight $63,500-$63,900 range, showing modest strength. Immediate support lies between $62,800 and $63,150, while a clear resistance level remains overhead with no confirmed directional breakout.
On-chain data shows short-term holder supply has fallen to new lows while illiquid supply continues to increase, indicating growing liquidity divergence. Institutional OTC selling pressure also remains elevated.
Investors continue monitoring both the progress of the CLARITY Act and developments in the Middle East.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH attempted a modest recovery in the $1,850-$1,875 range but continued to underperform Bitcoin.
Among the top gainers, Cosmos (ATOM) rose 7.5%, Algorand (ALGO) gained 4.4%, and Ethena (ENA) advanced 4%.
On the downside, Audiera (BEAT) dropped 13.75%, while Uniswap (UNI) fell 5.6% and Kaspa (KAS) declined 2.9%.
The stablecoin market capitalization increased 0.1% to $302 billion.
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📋 CRYPTO MARKET NEWS
Three major issues remain unresolved in the CLARITY Act negotiations: who will oversee ethics rules, whether stablecoin reward provisions will remain in the bill, and the scope of developer protections.
The SEC and CFTC continue advancing their own regulatory agendas independently of Congress. The January 28 staff guidance established a taxonomy for tokenized securities.
Analysts expect crypto market sensitivity to CLARITY Act developments to increase as the election period approaches.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
PROVE (Succinct) August 5, 2026
Amount: Approximately $34.7M-$39M (104%-119% of circulating supply)
208.33M tokens
Recipients: Team/Core Contributors, Ecosystem, Investors, Public Sale, and Foundation allocations
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: One of the largest single supply expansions of 2026, effectively doubling the circulating float. The unlock exceeds 100% of circulating supply, creating an exceptionally dilutive event with significant downside risk.
Ethena (ENA) August 5, 2026
Amount: Approximately $15M-$19M (1.8%-2.4% of circulating supply)
171.88M tokens
Recipients: Core Contributors (scheduled monthly cliff unlock)
Selling Pressure: 🟡
Note: A routine monthly unlock with relatively limited dilution, though occurring on the same day as PROVE increases overall supply pressure.
Power Protocol (POWER) August 5, 2026
Amount: $1.62M (8.9% of market capitalization)
Recipients: Allocation details are not publicly available.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: The high unlock ratio relative to market capitalization creates liquidity shock risk.
Verona (VERONA) August 5, 2026
Amount: $1.37M (12.6% of market capitalization)
Recipients: Allocation details are not publicly available.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: An unlock equivalent to nearly one-eighth of market capitalization, a level that often results in sharp volatility for smaller-cap tokens.
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🔭 OUTLOOK
PROVE's unlock, which will nearly double its circulating supply, coincides with ENA, POWER, and VERONA unlocks, making August 5 a potentially heavy supply-pressure day for the altcoin market.
The week concludes with Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, one of the month's most important macroeconomic releases, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path.
If no agreement is reached on the CLARITY Act by August 7, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is expected to decline further.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — AUGUST 03, 2026
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🌐 TOP HEADLINES OF THE DAY
U.S. officials told CBS News that despite Trump’s statements, there are no plans for new negotiations with Iran. Iran also stated that no active talks with the U.S. are currently underway.
New York Fed President Williams said he strongly supported the FOMC’s latest decision.
On the SpaceX front, insider lockups are expected to begin expiring from August 6, potentially putting pressure on the company’s shares. The company is also set to report earnings tomorrow.
Total losses from the wave of attacks targeting Coldcard hardware wallets have reportedly reached $114 million, with the RBF mechanism being used to recover user funds.
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₿ BITCOIN
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot #Bitcoin ETFs recorded $172.4 million in net inflows in July 2026. This marked the first positive month since April, ending two consecutive months of outflows.
ETFs saw $4.5 billion in outflows in June, while combined May-June outflows reached approximately $7 billion. July’s data therefore points to a limited recovery.
Strategy sold $105 million worth of Bitcoin, reducing its total BTC holdings to 842,138.
The overall market structure continues to seek balance between ETF flows and institutional selling pressure.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
FOMC members continue to support the latest interest rate decision, while the market searches for a new direction.
July’s $172.4 million ETF inflow broke the sharp two-month outflow trend, providing a positive signal.
The Coldcard attacks have once again brought #crypto security risks into focus, with total losses reaching $114 million.
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS — AUGUST 4, 2026
Lagrange (LA): ~30.3M tokens | ~$1.4M–$1.9M | ~3% supply | MEDIUM-HIGH pressure
IOTA: ~$1.6M unlock | low supply impact | LOW-MEDIUM pressure
GoGoPool (GGP): ~750K tokens | ~$1.2M | ~10.6% circulating supply | MEDIUM pressure
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
The return of positive ETF inflows is supportive for the market in the medium term, but institutional selling and macro uncertainty continue to limit the trend.
SpaceX earnings and the upcoming insider share unlock could create additional volatility across risk assets.
Friday — August 7
15:30 TRT — NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls), Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, July 2026
The week’s — and perhaps the quarter’s — most important data release. July NFP will show whether June’s 57K reading was an anomaly or the beginning of a broader trend. Wage growth released simultaneously will also be critical for inflation expectations, particularly in determining whether the 58% probability of a September rate hike holds.

3–7 August 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT - UTC +3)
🎯 Weekly Theme
Last week’s central bank meetings sent the same message: the FOMC had 3 dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan — all favored a 25 bp hike), the BoE had 3 (Greene, Mann, Pill — all favored a 25 bp hike), and the BoJ had 1 (Takata — favored a hike to 1.25%). Simultaneous hawkish pressure across three major central banks has reshaped September pricing: CME FedWatch puts the probability of a September hold at 41.9%.
Q2 GDP came in below expectations at 1.5%, while consumer spending accelerated 3.2%. June PCE declined monthly (headline 3.7%, core 3.3%). The picture: growth is slowing, inflation remains sticky, and the energy shock continues with oil above $100 and Bab el-Mandeb closed. This week, one variable could reshape the entire equation — Friday’s July NFP.
📅 Economic Calendar (TRT only)
Monday – August 3
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — ISM Manufacturing PMI, July 2026
The prices sub-index is more important than the headline. If it remains near June’s elevated 71.3 level, inflation concerns could intensify.
Wednesday – August 5
🇺🇸 15:15 TRT — ADP Employment Report, July 2026
Above 100K → June’s weak NFP may have been an anomaly; September hike pressure increases.
Below 100K → labor-market weakness may be becoming a trend.
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — ISM Services PMI + JOLTS
Strong services activity and resilient job openings would reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative. Weak readings could revive growth concerns.
Thursday – August 6
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
The final early labor-market signal before NFP.
Friday – August 7
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, July 2026
The week’s most important release. July NFP will show whether June’s 57K reading was an anomaly or the beginning of a broader slowdown. Wage growth will also be critical for September Fed expectations.
⚡ Crypto & Market Risks
ISM Manufacturing: Prices above 70 → hawkish inflation narrative. Headline near/below 50 → growth concerns increase.
ADP + ISM Services + JOLTS: Strong ADP + strong services → September hike odds rise, USD strengthens, crypto faces pressure. Weak readings → initial risk-off reaction could be followed by a “Fed can’t hike” rally.
NFP: Strong NFP above 150K + high wage growth → September hike becomes increasingly likely; USD and Treasury yields rise, crypto faces leverage pressure.
Weak NFP below 100K → September hike odds fall; USD could weaken and crypto may find short-term relief.
A reading below June’s 57K → simultaneous growth and stagflation fears, potentially creating the highest-volatility scenario for crypto.
Jackson Hole: Warsh speaks August 27–29. This week’s NFP will directly shape expectations for his message.

Why does $USTC have a different recovery path than $LUNC ?
1️⃣ KEY DIFFERENCE: LUNC HAS AN “INFLATION PROBLEM,” USTC HAS A “TRUST PROBLEM”
This is the most critical difference.
LUNC:
Experienced a supply explosion
The problem is mathematical → too many tokens
Solution: burns, supply reduction, time
USTC:
Its stability and trust collapsed more than its supply
The problem is psychological + systemic
Solution: role change, expectation reset
📌 Therefore:
LUNC recovers slowly and mechanically
USTC moves suddenly and based on perception
2️⃣ LUNC IS IN “REPAIR,” USTC IN “REDEFINITION”
For LUNC, market expectations are clear:
“It doesn’t need to be what it was, but it needs to work.”
For USTC, expectations have changed:
“It doesn’t need to be what it was.”
This difference is critical because:
LUNC is trying to repair its past
USTC is looking for a new role by breaking away from its past
📌 In crypto, sometimes “redefinition” is priced faster than “repair.”
3️⃣ PRICE BEHAVIOR: LUNC IS LINEAR, USTC IS OPTIONAL
LUNC price behavior
Burns → slow impact
Developments → limited reaction
Process → long-term
USTC price behavior
Small news → high volatility
Narrative change → sudden spike
Perception → disproportionate reaction
📌 Therefore, USTC is:
Riskier
But much more sensitive to narrative changes
4️⃣ COMMUNITY DYNAMICS ARE DIFFERENT
LUNC community
Larger
More divided
More focused on “economic expectations”
USTC community
Smaller
More niche
More focused on “is it possible again?”
This means:
Consensus is harder with LUNC
Direction can change faster with USTC
5️⃣ BULL MARKET BEHAVIOR: HOW DO THEY REACT?
Historically, in bull markets:
Large, well-known assets → rise steadily
Assets with traumatic histories → explode suddenly
USTC belongs to the second group.
📌 In other words:
LUNC = “slow but steady”
USTC = “long silence + sudden repricing”
6️⃣ CONCLUSION: SAME ECOSYSTEM, DIFFERENT PATHS
In summary:
LUNC recovery = time + discipline
USTC recovery = perception + role + catalyst
Therefore:
USTC is not a “smaller version” of LUNC.
It is playing a completely different game.
One-sentence distinction:
LUNC is a “repair project,”
USTC is a “potential rewrite.”

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — July 31, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Friday. The decision was widely expected, but dissent within the policy board surprised markets.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since January 2025.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said inflation is not yet on a sustainable path back to the Fed's 2% target and supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. Kashkari and Hammack also argued that gradual rate increases are more effective than larger hikes.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and that vessels require Iranian permission to pass, according to IRIB.
Iran claimed responsibility for a drone attack on U.S. military facilities at Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base, while the U.S. paused overnight airstrikes against Iran.
South Korea's KOSPI index surged nearly 15%, fueled by a strong rally in global semiconductor stocks.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC traded between $63,500 and $64,700 as month-end profit-taking kept price action volatile. Following Thursday's post-FOMC recovery, Bitcoin briefly moved higher after reports that attacks against Iran had been halted, but later surrendered most of those gains.
Approximately $10 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire today, adding pressure through month-end positioning and a stronger U.S. dollar. $67,800 remains the key resistance level, while $63,000 is the critical support. The RSI is near 50, indicating neutral momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator sits around 21, suggesting oversold conditions and the possibility of a short-term rebound. Despite recent volatility, July was a strong month overall, with the CoinDesk 20 Index on track for its best monthly performance since July 2025.
$BTC
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH weakened alongside BTC, trading between $1,870 and $1,920.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization climbed to approximately $2.3 trillion, up 1.4% on the day. BTC dominance stands at 56.3%, while ETH dominance is around 10%.
Layer-2 projects and the XRP Ledger ecosystem led today's gains.
GRVT surged 62%, while BANK fell 57%, highlighting continued sharp divergence across the altcoin market.
A BlackRock-backed stablecoin is expected to launch on Ethereum.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
A manufacturing flaw in Coinkite's Coldcard hardware wallets resulted in the theft of $38-40 million worth of BTC. The company believes the vulnerability was identified using artificial intelligence.
Australia became the latest country to file legal action against Telegram.
The State of New York sued Kalshi, alleging it is operating an "illegal gambling platform" and seeking to halt its unlicensed gambling activities.
Binance.US is evaluating a potential expansion into prediction markets.
Today marks the SEC's deadline to decide on Spot Solana ETF applications.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he is not concerned if the CLARITY Act is not passed before the August congressional recess.
A recent poll found that a majority of respondents do not support Trump's expanding crypto business interests.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Quack AI (Q)
August 1, 2026 – 03:00 TRT
Amount: $3.65 million (3.74% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $97.51 million
Recipients: Distribution details have not been clearly disclosed due to the project's small size.
Selling Pressure: 🟡
Note: As a low-liquidity, small-cap token, even a medium-sized unlock could trigger significant short-term volatility.
Opinion (OPN)
August 1, 2026 – 03:00 TRT
Amount: $2.20 million (19.82% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $11.10 million
Recipients: Distribution details remain unavailable in public sources.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: Nearly one-fifth of the project's market capitalization will be unlocked, making it one of the most dilutive unlocks of the week and creating a high liquidity shock risk.
Ethena (ENA)
August 1, 2026 – 11:00 TRT
Amount: $8.10 million (0.99% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $822.53 million
Recipients: Core Contributors (routine monthly cliff unlock)
Selling Pressure: 🟢
Note: The unlock is relatively small compared to ENA's market capitalization. Historically, ENA has shown limited volatility after unlock events, although recent whale transfers to exchanges remain worth monitoring.
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Heading into the weekend, markets will closely watch whether the pause in attacks against Iran proves durable and how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects energy prices.
The first week of August features a heavy token unlock schedule—including SUI, BEAT, EIGEN, and now Q, OPN, and ENA—which could continue to pressure altcoins in an already weak risk appetite environment.
Markets will also closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment data throughout August for clues ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — July 30, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
The strongest dissent against Fed Chair Warsh since 1970 was recorded, while the S&P 500 posted its worst "Fed Day" reaction at the second meeting of a new Fed chair's tenure.
Microsoft shares jumped more than 15%, on track for their biggest single-day gain since 2020.
The U.S. June PCE Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month (forecast: -0.1%) and rose 3.7% year-over-year. White House Senior Advisor Hassett said the data made Warsh's job easier.
The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. The decision passed by a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers voting for a rate hike.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for an attack on Jordan's Azraq base. Meanwhile, mediators and Pakistan continue efforts to secure an Iran-U.S. ceasefire, with Iran also expected to send an envoy to Pakistan for talks.
According to Goldman Sachs, Asia-focused equity hedge funds are heading toward a record monthly loss of 18.6% through July 28.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC traded between $63,700 and $64,800 following the FOMC meeting. After the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, Bitcoin initially climbed to $64,700 before giving back part of its gains as markets digested the hawkish tone. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, marking the sharpest FOMC split since 2016.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.66%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.20%, its highest level in 19 years. Before the meeting, CME FedWatch priced the probability of a rate hike at around 35%. Crypto markets saw $401 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, including $298 million in longs and $103 million in shorts. Bitcoin spot ETFs returned to net inflows after several consecutive days of outflows. Holding above $64,000 is viewed as critical, while the Fed's hawkish pause has created a cautious outlook ahead of the September meeting.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded sideways between $1,900 and $1,920. Following the FOMC meeting, it lost momentum relative to BTC as capital rotated back into Bitcoin. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization recovered modestly to around $2.28 trillion.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
South Korea is preparing to introduce a 22% capital gains tax on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov said the protocol plans to fully remove Scroll, zkSync, and Aptos as part of a broader proposal announced Thursday to discontinue support for 50 low-adoption assets.
Senator Cynthia Lummis' X account was compromised, and users were warned not to interact with posts published from the account.
Bitcoin spot ETFs returned to net inflows following the FOMC meeting after several consecutive days of outflows.
Kraken warned of heavy news flow and elevated market volatility over the next 48 hours.
21Shares Chief Macro Strategist Steven Coltman described the Fed decision as a "relief" for investors but cautioned that persistently high inflation could make the September meeting more challenging.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Audiera (BEAT)
July 31, 2026, 03:00 TRT
Amount: $73.93 million (6.82% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $1.09 billion
Recipients: Primarily community and ecosystem allocations (Community, Marketing, Airdrop), with 21% allocated to the team, advisors, and investors.
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: The unlocked amount is roughly 26 times the project's weekly token burn volume, making the burn mechanism insufficient to offset the increase in supply and creating a high risk of short-term selling pressure.
Kite (KITE)
July 31, 2026, 03:00 TRT
Amount: $11.43 million (6.07% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $188.46 million
Recipients: Mixed allocation across Team/Advisors/Early Contributors (20%), Investors (12%), and Ecosystem/Community pools (48%).
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: KITE has remained in a sustained downtrend since its April mainnet launch, while previous unlocks of similar size suggest demand has struggled to absorb the additional supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN)
July 31, 2026, 11:00 TRT
Amount: $7.70 million (4.45% of market capitalization)
Market Cap: $173.10 million
Recipients: Investors and Early Contributors (routine monthly cliff unlock).
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Note: EIGEN has already declined 22% over the past seven days. Combined with the investor-heavy distribution, weak price action increases the risk of additional selling pressure.
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
As markets continue to digest the Fed's hawkish tone, attention has shifted toward the September meeting. While the PCE data came in line with expectations and provided some support for the Fed, the division among policymakers continues to highlight uncertainty surrounding the future rate path.
The outcome of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and further developments in Iran-U.S. ceasefire negotiations will likely determine tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and, in turn, overall market risk sentiment in the coming days.

🔐 END OF DAY MARKET REPORT — July 29, 2026
🌐 TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
According to Bloomberg, Trump is unlikely to back down in the Strait of Hormuz until Iran gives in. Iran continues to control the strait and demand transit fees, while officials expect low-level hostilities to continue for some time.
Trump told Fox: "We will hit Iran hard," but added that negotiators will continue talks.
Airstrikes resumed overnight in the region, renewing the geopolitical risk premium.
The KOSPI index has lost more market value over the past 29 trading days than Bitcoin's entire market capitalization.
JPMorgan expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, with a hawkish hold (50% probability) as its base-case scenario.
Ionic Digital shares surged 25% on their Nasdaq debut.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC is attempting to recover within the $63,900-$64,500 range ahead of the FOMC decision. After testing support below $63,000 yesterday, it has rebounded about 1% but has yet to reclaim the $65,000 level. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, remaining in the Fear zone.
The FOMC decision will be announced today at 21:00 TRT. JPMorgan sees a hawkish hold as the base case with a 50% probability, while CME FedWatch prices the probability of a rate hike at 35-36%. That threshold is expected to determine the market's next direction. Analysts warn that failure to establish a sustained move above $65,000 could trigger a pullback toward the $62,000-$62,500 range, while a dovish tone after the decision could open the way toward $67,000.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their fourth consecutive day of outflows following an eight-day inflow streak, with cumulative outflows exceeding $500 million over the past four sessions.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is attempting a modest recovery in the $1,900-$1,920 range, trading cautiously alongside BTC ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Weakness in AI tokens continues, with FET declining 6.8% over the past 24 hours.
In the DeFi sector, Jupiter (JUP) gained 5.8%, making it the day's strongest performer and leading the recovery.
The CoinDesk 20 Index ended the day up 0.4%, with 10 assets advancing and 10 declining.
Cardano (ADA) outperformed the broader market ahead of the FOMC, rising 6% over the past 24 hours.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
The SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation aimed at reducing uncertainty for crypto companies while broader legislation is pending. Additional regulatory work is expected to remain on the SEC's 2026 agenda.
Hyperscale Data announced a new treasury purchase of 1,106 BTC ($71.7 million) on July 28, signaling continued institutional accumulation despite market weakness.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins pledged technical support to advance the CLARITY Act in Congress. Despite the limited legislative window before the August recess, he defended the proposed regulatory framework.
Morgan Stanley launched staking-enabled Ethereum (MSSE) and Solana (MSOL) ETPs on NYSE Arca. Both products carry a 0.14% expense ratio, expanding its crypto ETP lineup to include BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Russia has filed terrorism charges against Telegram founder Pavel Durov, increasing pressure on the platform.
Orochi Network was the day's top-performing token, surging 75%.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Optimism (OP)
July 31, 2026
Amount: Approximately $22.8 million (1.79% of circulating supply) — 31.34 million OP
Recipient: Core Contributors (team/insider allocation)
Selling Pressure: 🟡
Note: OP's routine monthly cliff unlock. Since the allocation is team-related, it carries some short-term selling pressure risk, although the amount remains relatively limited compared to the total supply.
GUNZ (GUN)
Market Cap: $9.84 million
Unlock Value: $1.17 million (11.87% of market capitalization)
Selling Pressure: 🔴
Date: July 30, 2026, 03:00
No additional unlock exceeding the reporting threshold has been identified for July 30.
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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
The FOMC decision at 21:00 TRT today, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, will be the week's—and likely the month's—most important catalyst. Markets have largely priced in a hold decision, with the primary focus now on Warsh's guidance regarding the Fed's rate path for 2026.
The possibility of continued low-intensity conflict in the Middle East may keep pressure on energy prices and overall risk sentiment through developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.