Rate futures and the Fed's own dots are pricing the same hiking path into year-end.
Wednesday's pre-open FedWatch reading has a 53.1% chance of another hike on 28 October and 89.1% by 9 December, with no cut priced at any meeting through 27 October 2027. That lines up with the 16 September projections, where the median dot sits at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027 (one more quarter point this year from 3.75-4.00%) and 16 of 18 officials see at least one more hike in 2026. The dots don't start cutting until 2028, at 3.9%, then 3.6% in 2029.
$XAU pays no cash flow, so its discount rate is the long real yield, and that's the same reason I treat $BTC as the purest duration asset of the lot. Gold fell on 1 September as yields rose on higher-for-longer, and the no-cash-flow stuff was the first to give on 15-16 September.
Next on the calendar is August PCE on 30 September. A hot print could push that December probability higher, and I'll be watching how gold trades it.
#Gold #Fed #Rates #Macro
Wednesday's pre-open FedWatch reading has a 53.1% chance of another hike on 28 October and 89.1% by 9 December, with no cut priced at any meeting through 27 October 2027. That lines up with the 16 September projections, where the median dot sits at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027 (one more quarter point this year from 3.75-4.00%) and 16 of 18 officials see at least one more hike in 2026. The dots don't start cutting until 2028, at 3.9%, then 3.6% in 2029.
$XAU pays no cash flow, so its discount rate is the long real yield, and that's the same reason I treat $BTC as the purest duration asset of the lot. Gold fell on 1 September as yields rose on higher-for-longer, and the no-cash-flow stuff was the first to give on 15-16 September.
Next on the calendar is August PCE on 30 September. A hot print could push that December probability higher, and I'll be watching how gold trades it.
#Gold #Fed #Rates #Macro